 Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Melbourne Cup Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Desirable Stakes
MIRETTE looks to have a great chance here as she drops in grade. All of her runs this campaign have been excellent. She is likely to settle mid-field and hopefully with cover. She has the ability to quicken and is very strong, so should be hard to beat.
BEAUTY is yet to be beaten and profiles nicely for this race as she steps up in distance. She is very strong and has enough early speed to go forward. At her most recent win she worked hard against a track bias and was still too good.
From the powerful Godolphin stable, last start winner POHUTUKAWA creates plenty of interest. The outside barrier looks a major negative, but I think being out wide will suit this big striding filly. Expect her to be very strong late.
ZIZZIS is honest and very consistent. She was able to dictate the pace at her latest win and just held on. Expect more pressure here, but has to be considered.
KHULAASA was only narrowly defeated last start and has an excellent course and distance record. Solid place chance.
SELECTIONS: 12. MIRETTE, 5. BEAUTY, 13. POHUTUKAWA, 3. ZIZZIS & 2. KHULAASA
S1-2 Melbourne Cup
MUNTAHAA burst into serious contention with an outstanding win in the Ebor Handicap at York in August. On that occasion he raced away over the final 200m and in doing so looked every bit a Melbourne Cup type of horse. His trackwork since arriving has been excellent.
YUCATAN was a brilliant winner on 13th October at Caulfield over 2,400m. If you were to judge him solely on that performance you would be backing him to win the G1 Melbourne Cup! His trackwork in the past week has been very good. The only concern is whether or not he can repeat such an outstanding performance. If he does then, he’s clearly the one to beat.
MARMELO was last year’s disappointment but it may turn out to be a better story for him in 2018. He was highly fancied in last year’s Cup but didn’t fire. Interesting that the stable has elected not to give him a lead up run since his arrival, as they believe that he performs best fresh. Trackwork has been very good.
MAGIC CIRCLE is another European galloper with impressive staying credentials. He has won eight races, all at 2,400m and beyond. Interesting to note that star jockey Corey Brown accepted the Cup ride three months ago! So that decision alone commands great respect. Trackwork has been good.
CROSS COUNTER is a lightly raced and exciting stayer from the powerful Charlie Appleby stable. He bolted in a 2,398m race at Goodwood and has strong European form lines. His ability to sprint quickly when the race needs to be won makes him a legitimate chance here. Recent trackwork has been good.
BEST SOLUTION has won three G1 races from his last four starts, including the Caulfield Cup over 2,400m, so he has to be included despite having to carry top weight of 127lbs. He showed at Caulfield that he could race handy and sustain a strong gallop under pressure. Has to be included.
SELECTIONS: 5. MUNTAHAA, 11. YUCATAN, 9. MARMELO, 3. MAGIC CIRCLE & 23. CROSS COUNTER
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 5. MUNTAHAA
Selections – 11. YUCATAN, 9. MARMELO, 3. MAGIC CIRCLE & 23. CROSS COUNTER
S1-3: Banker – 1. STAMPEDE
Selections – 14. TAKE IT INTERN, 11. MURAAQEB, 3. LIFE LESS ORDINARY & 13. KAONIC
S1-3 Melbourne Cup Day Plate
The key to assessing this race seems to be in the likelihood of a very strong tempo! ZAHSPEED seems certain to cross over and set a solid tempo, with STAMPEDE settling second – for that reason I am looking for horses that have strong form at 1,800m to 2,000m.
STAMPEDE looks the one most likely to take control of the race at the 400m mark, but then the challenge for him will be to hold off the ‘closers’ late in the race with 132lbs. His last start win by five lengths at Randwick was outstanding, so if he can hold his form he will be hard to beat. No distance concerns.
TAKE IT INTERN created a strong impression when winning recently at Caulfield. In the parade ring he didn’t look quite ready, but he still scored a stunning victory. This distance suits better, as will the predicted strong tempo. Carrying only 119lbs is a positive.
MURAAQEB profiles well for this race. I realize his form doesn’t read very well, but I think it is good enough and seems sure to get a cosy run from barrier 2. Kerrin McEvoy to ride is a significant engagement.
LIFE LESS ORDINARY is racing well and was a little unlucky in this same race last year. He is another to be suited by the solid tempo, is drawn well and should be closing fast late. Ryan Moore to ride helps his chances.
KAONIC and DUCA VALENTINOIS can be included in the chances.
SELECTIONS: 1. STAMPEDE, 14. TAKE IT INTERN, 11. MURAAQEB, 3. LIFE LESS ORDINARY & 13. KAONIC
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 1. STAMPEDE, 14. TAKE IT INTERN & 11. MURAAQEB
S1-4: Multiple – 9. TVERSKY, 6. TREKKING & 7. SNITZKRAFT
S1-5: Multiple – 3. NOIRE, 4. PRINCESS POSH & 7. OUR CROWN MISTRESS
S1-4 MSS Security Sprint
TVERSKY is a highly credentialed galloper from Queensland that has won four races in a row and creates plenty of interest here. He is drawn out wide in this straight race, which should suit. This is a tougher race but he must be respected.
TREKKING seems the safe and reliable option because he is so honest and has Kerrin McEvoy to ride. Forgive his recent unplaced run at Caulfield as nothing went right for him that day. His previous form was excellent. Has won three of his five starts this time in.
SNITZKRAFT is now with the powerful Darren Weir stable and looks to be a definite chance. He is lightly raced and should improve off his first up run at Caulfield.
BRAVE SONG has to be included because he is drawn to control the race out in barrier 14. He often seems to find one better on race day, but he is both consistent and talented. Must be included.
AFTER ALL THAT is another interstate visitor worth watching. His overall form is strong, especially on good tracks. Barrier 11 is ideal, so expect him to be competitive.
GALAXY RAIDER has trialled well and races well first-up.
SELECTIONS: 9. TVERSKY, 6. TREKKING, 7. SNITZKRAFT, 5. BRAVE SONG & 13. AFTER ALL THAT
S1-5 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes
NOIRE has accepted for another race but if this is chosen as her assignment then she will be hard to beat. All of her starts this time in have been excellent and have been in better races than this. Hong Kong's champion jockey Zac Purton will ride and drawn perfectly in barrier 1.
PRINCESS POSH is drawn to get a cosy run and comes back to her preferred distance. She will need luck from barrier 2, but if it comes, she will be very strong late. Won a feature race in Newcastle that can be a pointer to future success.
OUR CROWN MISTRESS looks ready to produce her best. She has been unlucky at her previous two runs and maps well for this. Should press forward and possibly control the race, so expect her to be hard to beat.
RESIN is another filly with a great chance and drawn to get a nice run. Her recent form is good, albeit on soft tracks in Sydney. Must be included.
FUHRYK might be the forgotten runner because she hasn’t won for so long. However her last two runs have indicated a return to her best may be close. Craig Williams to ride and barrier 4 is a bonus.
If emergencies MINTHA or WARRANTY get a run they should be considered.
SELECTIONS: 3. NOIRE, 4. PRINCESS POSH, 7. OUR CROWN MISTRESS, 9. RESIN & 11. FUHRYK
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