Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth II Cup Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup

The G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup on coming Sunday at Kyoto is the championship race for fillies and mares in Japan, and the list of past winners is very gorgeous, which includes HAGINO TOP LADY, MEJIRO RAMONU, HISHI AMAZON, ADMIRE GROOVE, and SNOW FAIRY from the Great Britain, all of which are described as ‘Queen of Turf’ or ‘Princess of Racing’. 

It is a pity that the best two female thoroughbreds at the moment in Japan are missing from the field of this year’s renewal of the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup. The best filly is ALMOND EYE by LORD KANALOA, who completed Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies in fascinating style this year. ALMOND EYE, who skips this race, is trained for the G1 Japan Cup on 25th November at Tokyo. 

And the second best filly is DEIRDRE, 4YO filly by HARBINGER, winner of the G1 Shuka Sho in 2017 and won the G2 Fuchu Himba Stakes on 13th October at Tokyo very impressively. The connection decides to save her for the G1 Hong Kong Cup, the year-end ultimate goal for the filly.

So who is the third best female thoroughbred in Japan? I believe the horse to bet in this race is LYS GRACIEUX, 4YO filly by HEART'S CRY. Please read through her form and you find she is so consistent, producing her true form at almost every occasion. In addition to winning two Graded Stakes, she finished second in the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, the G1 Oka Sho, the G1 Shuka Sho and the G1 Victoria Mile, all of which are very important and prestigious races for fillies and mares. And I highly regard the form of the G2 Fuchu Himba Stakes on 13th October at Tokyo, honestly speaking, I believe DEIRDRE, winner of the that race, will have strong chance to win the G1 Hong Kong Cup in December. And it is another encouraging factor that Joao Moreira is booked for her. My first pick is LYS GRACIEUX.

My second choice is CANTABILE, 3YO filly by DEEP IMPACT. She has been competing in the top league of sophomore fillies since spring, and has even been improving through the year. While she won the G3 Flower Cup in March, she was well beaten in the G1 Yushun Himba, and I had impression that she was not well matured enough to run against top class fillies in spring time. However, she won the G2 Rose Stakes on 16th September at Hanshin, from which I got the feeling that she is now better horse than she was in spring, and it was good effort that she finished third in the G1 Shuka Sho. I believe she is now competitive against older generation.

I understand MOZU KATCHAN, 4YO filly by HARBINGER, winner of this race twelve months ago, has the same class as LYS GRACIEUX, however, she was spiked by temperature a few days before the G2 Fuchu Himba Stakes and did not run the race. After losing a couple of training days, she came back on track and has been trained toward this race, however, I understand she is not 100% fit yet and no higher than my third choice.

RED GENOVA, who finished second to SATONO DIAMOND in the G2 Kyoto Daishoten on 8th October is my fourth choice and ADMIRE LEAD, winner of the G1 Victoria Mile last year, is my fifth choice.


SELECTIONS: 12. LYS GRACIEUX, 8. CANTABILE, 7. MOZU KATCHAN, 5. RED GENOVA & 6. ADMIRE LEAD

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