 Expert - Naohiro Goda |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Japan Cup (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 Japan Cup
Likely favourite for the 38th running of the G1 Japan Cup, which carries the total purse of 648,000,000yen, approximately 45 million Hong Kong dollars, is ALMOND EYE, 3YO filly by LORD KANALOA, who is well supported at ante-post market.
ALMOND EYE is one of only five fillies in the history who swept Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies, including the G1 Oka Sho over 1,600m at Hanshin in April, the G1 Yushun Himba over 2,400m at Tokyo in May, and the G1 Shuka Sho over 2,000m at Kyoto in October. The turn of foot which the filly trained by Sakae Kunieda displays at the final stage of race is unparalleled, and her late kick reminds us WINX in Australia, ZARKAVA in Europe, and ZENYATTA in the United States. I fully understand it is too early to compare ALMOND EYE with those legendary race mares, however, I believe ALMOND EYE has potential to leave her name in history books.
Despite so, my first pick for the Japan Cup is not ALMOND EYE, due to two reasons. First of all, the Japan Cup is a tough race for 3YO fillies and GENTILDONNA who won this G1 2,400m turf event at Tokyo in 2012, is the only 3YO filly in the list of past winners. Although ALMOND EYE may be as good as GENTILDONNA, we don’t know yet. And Christophe Lemaire, regular rider of ALMOND EYE, disclosed his impression after Yushun Himba that the best trip for ALMOND EYE should be mile and quarter. Hence, I am skeptical if she could be competitive against older colts and horses at demanding mile and half at Tokyo Racecourse.
My favourite is SATONO DIAMOND, 5YO horse by DEEP IMPACT. The trip to France last autumn cost a lot for SATONO DIAMOND, and he thoroughly lost his form. When he was in losing streak, it looked he lost his spirit and I thought his career was drawing to a close. However, Yasutoshi Ikee, who trains SATONO DIAMOND, did fantastic job. SATONO DIAMOND bounced back and won the G2 Kyoto Daishoten on 8th October at Kyoto, which was his first victory since March 2017. Provided he regains his top form, I believe he is the best horse in the field and I pick up him as my first choice with assurance.
CHEVAL GRAND, 6YO horse by HEART’S CRY, who try to achieve back-to-back win of the Japan Cup, is my third choice. He was beaten fourth in the G2 Kyoto Daishoten, however, it was the first start for him since April, and he is the horse who always needs a race to regain fitness. Hugh Bowman was booked for him, however, Bowman was handed suspension at Flemington on 6th November and is not able to ride at Tokyo on 25th November. The replacement is Cristian Demuro, who is good jockey, but the absence of Bowman is certainly a blow for CHEVAL GRAND. He is my third choice.
SUAVE RICHARD was disappointing tenth in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn on 28th October, despite he was supported as the 3 to 2 favourite. I did not like the idea to run the G1 Yasuda Kinen over 1,600m in June, which is obviously shorter than his trip, although he ran well finishing third, and I am worried this might cause aberrant on his physical or mental mechanism. If he is in top form on Sunday, I believe he has good chance to finish in first three, but it is my evaluation at the moment that he is no better than my fourth choice.
THUNDERING BLUE from Great Britain has been improving rapidly in the last few months, and I have impression that the track at Tokyo is suitable for the 5YO gelding. He is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 3. SATONO DIAMOND, 1. ALMOND EYE, 9. CHEVAL GRAND, 11. SUAVE RICHARD & 6. THUNDERING BLUE
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