 Expert - Jack Milner |
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| Veteran journalist Jack Milner has been involved in horseracing since 1972. From then on he followed the sport closely so in 2006 when he was offered the position with Phumelela Gaming & Leisure as Managing Editor of their Publishing Department, he jumped at the chance. He is also instrumental in sending tips and previews to international customers who subscribe to South African racing. Milner is known to be an astute studier of form who reads a race very well. He is one of the leading tipsters in the country where he has a big following. He has attended international events such as the English Derby and Oaks, Royal Ascot and the Melbourne Cup. | |
Expert Column for Met Day (S1) (Jack Milner)
S1-1 CTS 1200
This is a race only open to 3YO bought at one of the Cape Thoroughbred Sales two years ago but although restricted, comprises a strong field.
Three-time champion trainer Sean Tarry sends out CIRILLO and with Anton Marcus up, they look the pair to beat. CIRILLO is highly regarded and was plunged into feature races from the get-go of his career – and he has never looked outclassed. He has won three of 11 starts and might have had more victories if not campaigned at the top end. The POMODORO colt drops to a sprint for the first time in many months. And there might not be the gulf in ability to his rivals that the betting suggests. Some of them are relatively unexposed and have been carefully groomed for this big-money opportunity.
Also a bit of a mystery is PALACE CHAPEL, raiding from Paul Peter’s in-form stable with Gavin Lerena in the irons. The colt has three wins and a second from four outings and, if he comes through the down-country journey in good nick, he should be a lively runner.
TEMPLE GRAFIN is the pick of the seven fillies lining up and must be given respect with a 5lbs weight advantage over the males – not to mention the assistance of Piere Strydom in the saddle. Glen Kotzen’s charge reverts to the sprint after a moderate performance in the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas over 1,600m.
VAN HALEN won a G1 sprint as a 2YO but has lost form in Cape Town. He did show some improvement last time and looks a good outsider to include in one’s bets.
SEVENTH SEA is from the strong Justin Snaith yard and ran a decent race against older horses last time when third behind PLEASEDTOMEETYOU.
SELECTIONS: 1. CIRILLO, 5. PALACE CHAPEL, 14. TEMPLE GRAFIN, 2. VAN HALEN & 7. SEVENTH SEA
S1-2 CTS 1600
The two runners with the best credentials in the CTS 1600 are undoubtedly TWIST OF FATE and ONE WORLD as both have G1 form. They competed in the G1 Cape Guineas with TWIST OF FATE running second behind SOQRAT with ONE WORLD another 0.5 lengths back in third.
TWIST OF FATE then went on to contest the G3 Politician Stakes over 1,800m and ran out an emphatic winner, carrying top weight. The son of MASTER OF MY FATE has hardly put a foot wrong in his young career and it would be no surprise to see him carry off the big money under S’manga Khumalo.
ONE WORLD’s third place in the Guineas was the first defeat for trainer Vaughan Marshall’s colt following five wins in a row that had pundits seeking superlatives. In the Guineas ONE WORLD was given every chance by Anton Marcus but failed to match the finishing speed of SOQRAT and second-placed TWIST OF FATE. However, he was less than two lengths off an impressive winner and his merit rating has remained unchanged at a lofty 117. All horses have off days and ONE WORLD’s record, including a course-and-distance feature race victory, suggests he can bounce back. He drawn barrier 11 at the 1,600m start might concern some, but Marcus is the best man to negate any disadvantage by getting the colt across and into the lead, where he likes to do his galloping.
Filly SILVANO'S PRIDE comes in with a 106 merit rating after a promising start to her career. Her support team of trainer Justin Snaith and rider Richard Fourie are a factor in any feature race.
Sean Tarry’s CHIMICHURI RUN has run close to ONE WORLD but finished a disappointing sixth in the Guineas introduces a smidgeon of doubt, but accomplished Lyle Hewitson will be there to coax the best out of him.
VARDY, trained by Adam Marcus, is an unexposed runner who has shown flashes of talent. After winning two sprints with uncommon acceleration, he pulled badly in a bash at 1,600m but still finished powerfully to get second place. The son of VAR goes from barrier 4 with Craig Zackey aboard.
SELECTIONS:3. TWIST OF FATE, 1. ONE WORLD, 12. SILVANO'S PRIDE, 2. CHIMICHURI RUN & 7. VARDY
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 3. TWIST OF FATE
Selections – 1. ONE WORLD, 12. SILVANO'S PRIDE, 2. CHIMICHURI RUN & 7. VARDY
S1-3: Banker – 7. PACIFIC TRADER
Selections – 5. KASIMIR, 6. TRIP TO HEAVEN, 9. DUTCH PHILIP & 3. REBEL'S CHAMP
S1-3 Cape Flying Championship
This dash up the straight is often one of the most difficult races on the card as there are so many factors that can affect the outcome. At this time of the year the biggest concern can be the wind because Cape Town is prone to a strong south-easterly that blows across the course.
If that is the case the outside draws are often more effective as the horses use the grandstand to protect them, BOLD RESPECT is the best handicapped runner but he is not in the best of form currently and therefore his stablemate, PACIFIC TRADER, could be the horse to beat. In his last five runs over the course and distance since being gelded Brett Crawford’s charge has won four times and was narrowly beaten in the other. He is drawn in barrier 10 which should be ideal and has a top jockey in Greg Cheyne.
KASIMIR stands out as the main threat. He finished a two-length second behind PACIFIC TRADER in the Pinnacle Stakes last time and is now 4lbs better off. He is from the powerful Justin Snaith yard and will have a top jockey up in Richard Fourie.
Now 7YO, TRIP TO HEAVEN is getting on a bit but he is top sprinter on his day and has the class to beat this field. He is trained by Sean Tarry and has champion jockey Lyle Hewitson in the irons. He has a habit of losing ground at the start so how he jumps will be the key for this son of TRIPPI.
DUTCH PHILIP was a top 2YO but he was perhaps too highly rated by the handicappers and struggled to run at that level. He has since been gelded and showed marked improvement in his last start when third behind SPEEDPOINT in a minor feature over 1,100m. PACIFIC TRADER was second, 2.25 lengths in front of DUTCH PHILIP but Candice Bass-Robinson’s charge is now 9lbs better off. He also has a top jockey in Bernard Fayd’Herbe.
REBEL'S CHAMP has won seven out of 14 races over 1,000m, including his last three. He has built up a good rapport with Peruvian jockey Carlos Gomez and is one of the best handicapped runners. However, he has to make the 1,500km journey from Johannesburg and how he travels will be the key to his chances.
SELECTIONS: 7. PACIFIC TRADER, 5. KASIMIR, 6. TRIP TO HEAVEN, 9. DUTCH PHILIP & 3. REBEL'S CHAMP
S1-4 Cape Derby
The G1 Cape Derby is another tricky race because they have a field of 19 horses and many of the highly regarded runners have wide draws. The merit ratings indicate that the three fillies are the best handicapped runners but their form could be suspect and it could be better to look at a colt with a decent draw.
That could be KwaZulu-Natal raider THANKSGIVING. Two runs back he finished second behind HAWWAAM in the G2 Dingaans over 1,600m at Turffontein and had trainer Duncan Howells chosen to bring his charge to Cape Town for the Derby he would be a hot favourite to win this. He is beautifully drawn in barrier 2 and has former five-time champion jockey Mark Khan in the irons. What is also significant is that after finishing second to HAWWAAM, THANKSGIVING returned to Durban and franked the form with an impressive win against older horses in a handicap.
Most of the talk is for Justin Snaith-trained BUNKER HUNT. He was well supported to win the G3 Politician Stakes in his last start but jockey Richard Fourie came off at the start. Whether he would have taken top honours is pure speculation as TWIST OF FATE won well with plenty in hand. However, prior to that he had won his last three starts and is obviously well above average. Unfortunately, he has a wide draw but will also have lots of assistance from the saddle as he has a top jockey in Richard Fourie.
Two runs back KNIGHTS TEMPLAR finished 0.5 lengths behind BUNKER HUNT but could only manage sixth place behind TWIST OF FATE in the G3 Politician Stakes. He will need to improve on that if he is to be competitive in this race but at least he is not too badly drawn at barrier 9.
SENATLA finished second behind TWIST OF FATE in the G3 Politician Stakes and would have been the obvious selection had he not landed in barrier 17. That will make life difficult for jockey Greg Cheyne and he will need some luck to win from there.
SECOND REQUEST is the highest rated runner but she got much of her merit rating for finishing fourth in the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas and then fifth in the G1 Paddock Stakes. In her favour is she jumps from barrier 1 and has champion jockey Lyle Hewitson in the irons.
SELECTIONS: 1. THANKSGIVING, 3. BUNKER HUNT, 13. KNIGHTS TEMPLAR, 8. SENATLA & 18. SECOND REQUEST
S1-5 Majorca Stakes
On form and merit ratings only four runners have a winning chance in this race for fillies and mares at weight-for-age.
LADY IN BLACK is the best handicapped runner and she has been in excellent form since arriving in the Cape. She beat last year’s G1 The Met winner OH SUSANNA in the Pinnacle Stakes and then finished just 0.5 lengths behind the same filly in the G1 Paddock Stakes over 1,800m. She is probably at her best over a little further than 1,600m and with that in mind, she could find 3YO FRONT AND CENTRE a touch too good. Trained by Brett Crawford, the daughter of DYNASTY is unbeaten in four starts and when she romped to victory in the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas over 1,600m in December, both Crawford and jockey Anton Marcus said we had not seen the best of this filly. She does look something special and with a wonderful barrier 4 in her favour FRONT AND CENTRE could prove too good for a some strong opposition. Marcus takes the ride again.
SNOWDANCE won this race last year when she was seen as the best bet on the card. However, it was her class that saw her through and one got the impression that 1,600m was at the outer limit of her range. When she ran against the colts in the G1 Queen’s Plate she demonstrated she did not stay 1,600m in strong company.
Distance is the same problem facing CLOUDS UNFOLD, the other 3YO in the field. Candice Bass-Robinson’s filly has shown her ability with wins up to 1,400m but she failed to see out 1,600m when third behind FRONT AND CENTRE in the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas. On that basis she will need to find something extra to win this event.
MIYABI GOLD is another Justin Snaith-trained runner and although unlikely to win, she could run into the places as she has a top jockey in Piere Strydom.
SELECTIONS: 12. FRONT AND CENTRE, 1. LADY IN BLACK, 2. SNOWDANCE, 13. CLOUDS UNFOLD & 7. MIYABI GOLD
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 12. FRONT AND CENTRE
Selections – 1. LADY IN BLACK, 2. SNOWDANCE, 13. CLOUDS UNFOLD & 7. MIYABI GOLD
S1-6: Banker – 7. DO IT AGAIN
Selections – 13. OH SUSANNA, 1. LEGAL EAGLE, 9. RAINBOW BRIDGE & 2. HEAD HONCHO
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 12. FRONT AND CENTRE, 1. LADY IN BLACK & 2. SNOWDANCE
S1-6: Multiple – 7. DO IT AGAIN, 13. OH SUSANNA & 1. LEGAL EAGLE
S1-7: Multiple – 4. STRATHDON, 9. WALTER SMOOTHIE & 2. LET IT RAIN
S1-6 The Met
Based on his last win in the G1 Queen’s Plate, DO IT AGAIN will be very hard to beat. In that race, run over 1,600m, he beat most of the opposition he will face in this race and we know he is even better over this sort of distance. The handicappers were very impressed with his victory over SOQRAT and raised his merit rating to 125, making him the highest rated horse in the country. Last year he won the G1 Durban July over 2,200m at Greyville, which is a handicap, but as The Met is run under weight-for-age terms, he is weighted to beat them all again. Jockey Richard Fourie is full of praise for this 4YO son of TWICE OVER and he rates DO IT AGAIN among the three best horses he has ridden.
He also rates his biggest danger OH SUSANNA, the filly who won it last year. As a 3YO she came into the race with just 113lbs on her back and that made her hard to stop. This time she carries 126lbs so it will be a lot tougher. She has improved since then but she will find DO IT AGAIN a tough not to crack. In her favour she has a top jockey in Bernard Fayd’Herbe.
This will be LEGAL EAGLE fourth attempt to win this race and at the age of seven, it is not getting any easier. In his defence, for the last three years one horse had come into the race very well weighted and that horse has gone on to win. In his first two attempts LEGAL EAGLE finished second while last year he ran fourth, although beaten just 1.65 lengths. There is no horse racing off a light weight this time and that could work in LEGAL EAGLE’s favour. This will be the first time champion jockey Lyle Hewitson will take the ride.
RAINBOW BRIDGE won his first five races in style but was then beaten by LEGAL EAGLE in the G2 Green Point Stakes and again by DO IT AGAIN in the G1 Queen’s Plate. On that last run it is hard to see him reversing the placings with DO IT AGAIN, even with Anton Marcus up.
HEAD HONCHO is not well weighted but he is has won six of his last seven races. He is sure to stay the trip and it would come as no surprise to see him run into the placings.
SELECTIONS: 7. DO IT AGAIN, 13. OH SUSANNA, 1. LEGAL EAGLE, 9. RAINBOW BRIDGE & 2. HEAD HONCHO
S1-7 CapeStayers
The outcome of this race could be based on the form of the G3 Chairman’s Cup run over 3,200m at Kenilworth which was won by GIMME ONE NIGHT. It proved to be a very close finish with a number of these horses contesting the race.
However, it was a handicap while the G2 Cape Stayers is a stakes race. As a result, there is a massive turnaround in weights in favour of STRATHDON. Justin Snaith’s charge carried 135lbs in that G3 Chairman’s Cup but will have 130lbs on his back while the winner goes up from 118lbs up to 130lbs, a swing of 17lbs for a 1.15-length beating. That should enable STRATHDON to easily reverse the placings, especially over this distance. Richard Fourie takes the ride.
WALTER SMOOTHIE is another runner who has quite a swing in his favour. He finished fourth in the G3 Chairman’s Cup, just 1.45 lengths off the winner and is now 9lbs better off. This 4YO colt does have a chance of reversing the form with STRATHDON as well, even though at the weights it seems unlikely. But he won the Listed Racing Association Handicap over 3,200m at Turffontein in December and that run in the G3 Chairman’s Cup was his first since arriving in Cape Town. As a result, he could improve now that he has been in the Cape for a month. He will be ridden by Diego De Gouveia, a talented young jockey who only got out of his apprenticeship a few weeks back and is currently also being used by Mike de Kock.
LET IT RAIN won this race last year under a wonderful ride from Richard Fourie and has been sparingly raced over the past year. Trained by Dan Katz, he clearly has been brought back at the right time in an attempt to defend his title. The 6YO gelding has only had two runs since coming back from a rest and both looked decent enough for him to go on from there and make the necessary improvement. Greg Cheyne will be riding him on this occasion.
GIMME ONE NIGHT is not weighted to win but he is an improving stayer who has won his last three starts. Included in there are two G3 features – the Cape Summer Stayers Handicap over 2,500m and the 3,200m Chairman’s Cup. He showed a lot of guts in those races as he won each of them by no more than 0.5 lengths. Brett Crawford’s charge runs well for Lyle Hewitson and his is back in the irons for this event.
Based on the weight turnaround BENJAN should not be a contender but, like GIMME ONE NIGHT, he is an improving stayer. He finished a 0.5 lengths second behind GIMME ONE NIGHT in the G3 Cape Summer Stayers Handicap and he is a horse to include in exotics bet types as he could run into the places.
SELECTIONS: 4. STRATHDON, 9. WALTER SMOOTHIE, 2. LET IT RAIN, 5. GIMME ONE NIGHT & 7. BENJAN
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