 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Dubai Thursday (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 90-105 Handicap
Trainer Charlie Appleby has been in good form recently and he looks to have one of the leading contenders for this 1,400m handicap with GOLD TOWN. The 4YO is pitched in handicap company again having disappointed last time over 1,600m. Prior to that, he again ran below par in the G2 1,600m Al Maktoum Challenge R1, but if he can return to last year’s form, he is the one to beat here. Don’t forget he won last season’s G3 1,600m UAE 2000 Guineas by over 10 lengths before being sent off a hot favourite when fourth in the G2 1,900m UAE Derby. His form remains a long way off that level though and carrying top weight doesn’t make things easier either, but at this level he is still one of the more likely candidates here.
AFRICAN RIDE is another who comes into the reckoning given he finished in front of GOLD TOWN on his latest start. Simon Crisford’s 5YO has been beaten convincingly on his last two starts, but he’s run well off a higher mark and on the best of his form would have a chance. However, he might have to settle for minor honours here.
THEGREATCOLLECTION was thrashed by CAPEZZANO on his last start over 1,600m, but the winner was clearly way better than his mark and the fact THEGREATCOLLECTION finished three lengths clear of AFRICAN RIDE suggests he’s another who must come into the reckoning here. There still appears to be some improvement of his current mark of 97 and he should go well.
Fawzi Nass looks to have a strong contender on his hands in the form of NINE BELOW ZERO. The 4YO son of SHOWCASING had some solid form in the Great Britain when trained by Ralph Beckett, but has come on plenty since moving to the Dubai. He followed an easy three length-win in a handicap over 1,200m with a solid performance in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint over the same distance. That performance looks one of the stronger bits of form on offer and this looks well within his capabilities. He looks well worth a try at this extra distance, having run on in the closing stages a week ago over 1,200m and is respected.
One of the more unexposed contenders is Appleby’s other runner AQABAH. The 4YO has only run seven times in his career and has been blighted by injury running just once since October 2017. He finished down the field on his belated return in a handicap at Meydan over 1,600m earlier this year, which was expected given his lengthy lay-off. He should strip much fitter here though and given the calibre of race he ran in during his 2YO days, he’s hard to discount.
Of the other challengers, HONORABLE TREASURE is consistent, but could struggle against some potential improvers in the line-up.
BOCHART has been doing most of his winning in lesser races than this, so it might be worth taking a chance on RODAINI to fill out the places. The 5YO has finished well down the pack in his last three outings, two of which were much more competitive Listed contests and this race looks considerably easier. He has won off a higher mark than this in the past, so could surprise a few at a bigger price.
SELECTIONS: 4. NINE BELOW ZERO, 7. THEGREATCOLLECTION, 1. GOLD TOWN, 2. AFRICAN RIDE & 6. RODAINI
S1-2 95-108 Handicap
The field for the 1,200m Handicap is headed by the top-rated British raider ANOTHER BATT. George Scott’s 4YO comes into this on the back of a fourth placed finish over course and distance earlier this month, where the draw in barrier two gave him little chance as he was away from the action. Two starts before that, he put in arguably the best performance of his career over 200m further which earned him an official rating of 108 – the highest he has recorded to date. He races off a lower mark here, but there have to be concerns over this 1,200m trip, with his last win over the distance coming in September 2017.
On the best of his form, INTISAAB would be more than up to winning a race of this nature. The 8YO son of ELNADIM was well campaigned in 2018, running 10 times with his win at the Curragh in a Handicap over 1,200m the highlight. That victory earned him a rating of 108 and he showed that was within his capabilities when finishing a close second in a Listed contest over 1,200m at Lingfield on his next start. He has been disappointing on his last two appearances though, so there must be question marks on whether he’s quite as good this season.
Looking slightly further down the handicap, the progressive LEGENDARY LUNCH looks primed for a bold showing having won two of his last three. Fawzi Nass seems to have found the best in the 5YO this season and his win in Abu Dhabi over 1,400m last time should put him spot on for this. Don’t forget this was a horse that ran in the 1,200m G1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot in 2017, so clearly has plenty of ability and he could be too good for these if putting it all together again.
Earlier in his career, LOG OUT ISLAND was clearly well-regarded given he went off third favourite for the 1,200m G2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury in 2015. He finished second in that and also took Listed races over the same distance at both Redcar and Newbury, although he was subsequently disqualified from the second. However, since July 2016 he has had just three starts and hasn’t looked the same horse. New trainer Satish Seemar will be hoping for a revival, but on recent evidence it’s hard to make a case for him challenging the leading contenders.
Great Britain-based trainers look to hold a strong hand in the race as Jamie Osborne’s DREAM TODAY looks another with a solid chance here. The son of DREAM AHEAD will be having his third start for Osborne and has shown enough in his previous two to suggest he could well up to taking this. Considering he was once rated 107 when trained by Mark Johnston, his current mark of 98 looks very lenient, especially as he’s shown his liking for this course and distance.
NEVER BACK DOWN hasn’t done anything in his last two starts to suggest he’s up to taking this, while DOUBLE UP hasn’t won since November 2017, so the final spot could go to FAS. The 5YO French raider has some very smart form in during his 3YO season where he won Listed and a G3 contests over 1,200m. Such performances saw him run in the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest, comfortably the strongest race any of the line-up has run in. He finished down the field that day and while hasn’t got his head in front since, he’s got some useful form in Ireland and is another who could go well if replicating that here.
SELECTIONS: 4. LEGENDARY LUNCH, 6. DREAM TODAY, 3. LOG OUT ISLAND, 1. ANOTHER BATT & 7. FAS
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 4. LEGENDARY LUNCH
Selections – 6. DREAM TODAY, 3. LOG OUT ISLAND, 1. ANOTHER BATT & 7. FAS
S1-3: Banker – 3. SPOTIFY
Selections – 5. FIRST NATION, 7. TEAM TALK, 2. RACING HISTORY & 6. OASIS CHARM
S1-3 Dubai Millennium Stakes
Godolphin seems to have virtually all the angles covered in the G3 2,000m Dubai Millennium Stakes, being responsible for six of the eight runners. With Charlie Appleby responsible for four and Saeed bin Suroor two, it would come as no surprise if the boys in blue celebrated a clean sweep in the race which commemorates arguably the best horse ever to carry those famous blue silks. William Buick, Appleby’s number one jockey, has opted to ride FIRST NATION, but he has conceded this week that it was almost a toss-of-the-coin choice, with stablemates SPOTIFY, OASIS CHARM and VINTAGER all holding solid prospects on form.
FIRST NATION had a tough 3YO campaign in competitive handicaps, and even though he was then gelded, never really fired last season. It can take some horses time to recover from such an operation and FIRST NATION looked a revelation when returning five weeks ago, trying the Meydan turf for the first time. Jockey Brett Doyle did not hurry FIRST NATION who was slowly away from the barriers, but they travelled ominously well throughout the race and quickened up impressively in the straight to win by more than four lengths. However, that was a handicap and even though it was a career best performance, he now takes on Group horses and might find things tougher.
James Doyle rode a peach of a race from the front on SPOTIFY to win a handicap here a week later on his first outing for Appleby, having run well in Pattern races last season when trained in France. Doyle is again on board and despite the fact that it was 2,410m, he had his rivals beaten a long way from home and the drop back in distance should actually help as he only just lasted home.
VINTAGER, another recent recruit having been with David Menuisier last summer, is also graduating from handicaps. He is now rated a lot higher than when winning a handicap over 1,600m at Newmarket last July and warrants as step up in class. While the longer trip is not a worry, his lengthy absence is a concern.
Appleby’s other runner is OASIS CHARM, who is closely weighted with the Bin Suroor-trained TEAM TALK, the pair having finished 1-2 here three weeks ago. TEAM TALK was beaten only three parts of a length that day, having suffered a tardy start, and on better terms he can reverse the form.
Bin Suroor also has the veteran RACING HISTORY in the field. Though now a 7YO, he has had only 11 races in his career and has not won for more than three years, but there is no doubt that he has plenty of talent. A proven Group horse, RACING HISTORY has twice come up against his smart stablemate DREAM CASTLE this season and has not been disgraced on either occasion.
CONNECT, who was trained by Clive Cox in the Great Britain last season, has yet to find his form in Dubai and is hard to fancy.
As for MUZDAWAJ, who completes the line-up, he has much more on his plate than when winning an ordinary handicap here last month.
SELECTIONS: 3. SPOTIFY, 5. FIRST NATION, 7. TEAM TALK, 2. RACING HISTORY & 6. OASIS CHARM
S1-4 UAE Oaks
Saeed bin Suroor has won the G3 1,900m UAE Oaks a remarkable 10 times in 18 runnings, but it could be Godolphin’s other trainer Charlie Appleby, who holds the key to this year’s renewal with DIVINE IMAGE. Strictly on the formbook, DIVINE IMAGE has a lot to find with French challenger SILVA, having been slammed nearly ten lengths by Pia Brandt’s filly in the 1,600m Listed UAE 1000 Guineas on the dirt here last month. However, spectacular though that performance undoubtedly was, there was a feeling that SILVA might have been flattered by the winning margin as she seemed to have the run of the race. She started an unfancied 33-1 chance and avoided the kickback by sitting handy in third place before quickening up stylishly to take command half-way up the straight.
Furthermore, unlike DIVINE IMAGE, SILVA had plenty of previous experience of an all-weather surface having previously run at Deauville and Chantilly. The less-experienced DIVINE IMAGE, who blew the start missing it by four or five lengths, will have swallowed plenty of dirt as she took in all the kickback at the back of the field. I’m expecting things to be different this time with the experience under her belt and the barrier draw has also been kinder to DIVINE IMAGE who can now break from barrier four. SILVA on the other hand will have to do plenty of early running to overcome the barrier 10.
DIVINE IMAGE, who was jumping up in class having only won a small race at Chelmsford on her debut before Christmas, is bred to relish this surface, being a daughter of American dirt stallion SCAT DADDY. She started a warm favourite for the Listed UAE 1000 Guineas, having been apparently impressing work-watchers in the mornings at Al Quoz, but inexperience told as she was always playing catch-up after fluffing her lines when the gates opened. William Buick reported that DIVINE IMAGE was also ‘restless’ in the stalls, but he was taken by how well the filly battled her way back through the field to finish second, and he is optimistic that she’ll improve sufficiently over this longer trip to reverse the placings with SILVA.
Despite Saeed bin Suroor’s fabulous record in the G3 UAE Oaks, DUBAI BEAUTY has a mountain to climb as she was again disappointing when only fourth in the Listed UAE 1000 Guineas and has not really progressed since showing so much promise with a winning debut on the turf at Newmarket last August.
Even more of a flop in the Listed UAE 1000 Guineas was Ismail Mohammed’s AL HAYETTE, who trailed in tenth, having twice previously won on the Meydan dirt, though it could be worth putting a line through that performance as she was always racing wide from barrier 15.
With LADY PARMA, only just caught on the line, STARRY EYES and HABAH also in the field, we have the first six from the Listed UAE 1000 Guineas renewing rivalry, and, though on ratings that trio face a big task, there was a lot to like about the effort of LADY PARMA, who could be the place value.
SELECTIONS: 4. DIVINE IMAGE, 10. SILVA, 3. DUBAI BEAUTY, 8. LADY PARMA & 6. AL HAYETTE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 4. DIVINE IMAGE
Selections – 10. SILVA, 3. DUBAI BEAUTY, 8. LADY PARMA & 6. AL HAYETTE
S1-5: Banker – 8. CENTURY DREAM
Selections – 2. MYTHICAL MAGIC, 6. WOOTTON, 5. FIRST CONTACT & 9. TOP SCORE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 4. DIVINE IMAGE, 10. SILVA & 3. DUBAI BEAUTY
S1-5: Multiple – 8. CENTURY DREAM, 2. MYTHICAL MAGIC & 6. WOOTTON
S1-6: Multiple – 1. SYMBOLIZATION, 3. HORS DE COMBAT & 7. ABOVE N BEYOND
S1-5 Zabeel Mile
Charlie Appleby, who has twice captured this G2 1,600m prize with SAFETY CHECK (2015 and 2016) is again well represented, but it is fellow Newmarket trainer Simon Crisford who holds the ace in the pack with the classy CENTURY DREAM. This confirmed front-runner has never stopped improving and mixed it with the best last season only being beaten less than a length in the G1 1,600m Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was also only worn down in the last 100 yards in the G1 2,000m Arlington Million Stakes in Chicago eventually finishing third before being demoted to fourth by the local stewards. Arguably his career-best performance came when last seen in action back in October at Ascot in the G1 1,600m Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on British Champions Day once again, he was only caught in the dying strides and this time by the brilliant ROARING LION. This is CENTURY DREAM’s first time at Meydan, but he has shown he acts on all types of tracks, right or left-hand and firm and soft ground, and he ticks all the right boxes.
Godolphin look to provide the main threat in MYTHICAL MAGIC, who was runner-up to stablemate D’BAI in the G2 1,400m Al Fahidi Fort here earlier in the month. On that form he holds TOP SCORE (fifth), CHAMPIONSHIP (sixth), COMIN' THROUGH (seventh), MARINARESCO (ninth) and last year’s winner JANOOBI (11th).
FIRST CONTACT, also carrying the Godolphin silks, beat MYTHICAL MAGIC in a Listed race in France last September, but James Doyle got first run on William Buick that day and the runner-up could not reel him in. Furthermore, FIRST CONTACT flopped in his comeback race here last month, and with MYTHICAL MAGIC seemingly in the better form of the pair, Buick can gain his revenge from a good draw in barrier two. The extra 200m should also play to MYTHICAL MAGIC’s strength as well as he seemed to be doing all his best work at the finish last time too.
It is also significant that Doyle has deserted FIRST CONTACT and instead rides Godolphin’s new recruit WOOTTON, whose best run would have been his third to WITHOUT PAROLE in the G1 1,600m St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last June. He became a little disappointing in three races back in France after those performances, but would be a danger to all if the change of scenery sparks a revival in his fortunes.
South African raider JANOOBI was so brave when triumphing in this race 12 months ago, but he has only beaten one horse home in each of his three runs at this year’s Carnival and even with the rails draw, he is hard to recommend.
SELECTIONS: 8. CENTURY DREAM, 2. MYTHICAL MAGIC, 6. WOOTTON, 5. FIRST CONTACT & 9. TOP SCORE
S1-6 95-105 Handicap
A total of 16 runners for the 1,600m 95-105 Handicap where Charlie Appleby is represented by the top-rated SYMBOLIZATION as he looks to continue his top form at the Dubai track. He finished fourth when fancied in a valuable handicap earlier this month over 1,800m when staying on for prize money with James Doyle in the saddle. That was his first run at Meydan and there’s every reason to believe he will come on for it for a trainer who does so well in these types of contests, so expect him to play a big part.
ABOVE N BEYOND burst onto the scene at the end of January when chasing down ESCALATOR to finish second over 1,600m with young jockey Connor Beasley in the saddle. Connections will be hoping he can show that sort of form once again as his form before that run was a concern having failed to finish better than sixth in six attempts.
HORS DE COMBAT won a valuable handicap during this meeting 12 months ago and will be bidding to roll back the years and outwit the younger horses once again. However, he has struggled in each of his two appearances this year, finishing 11th and ninth in 95-105 rated handicaps and has a little bit to prove.
Another horse hoping experience will outweigh potential is FORJATT. The 11YO is a Dubai regular and runs consistently well for connections, albeit at Abu Dhabi and Jebel Ali. The bay won a Listed contest over 1,600m National Day Cup and if transferring that and other form to Meydan he could feature.
KRONPRINZ has gone close twice without really troubling this season finishing fifth either side of a disappointing run at Meydan at the end of January. He was only beaten a combined distance of nine lengths in those two aforementioned races and could run into a place if things fall into place, although he wouldn’t be one to have too much faith in.
Dane O’Neill takes the ride of JAAREF having disappointed when last seen. He was well beaten by the likes of HORS DE COMBAT and KRONPRINZ and has everything to prove based on that effort. Prior to that he finished fourth, beaten a total of seven-and-a-half lengths, up in trip in a 2,000m handicap at the track behind Appleby pairing NORDIC LIGHTS and FIRST NATION who are both decent horses.
Appleby is also represented here by AURUM who endured a Meydan debut to forget at the beginning of the year, finishing 12th over 1,400m. Before that he’d run well at Listed level at Newmarket and Epsom but will need to prove he tackles Meydan just as effectively to trouble the main protagonists here.
DARK RED looks the best of the rest but is unlikely to trouble the leading candidates. Ed Dunlop’s 7YO has ran twice since arriving from Great Britain. However, he has failed to land a blow on either occasion, finishing mid-division over 2,000m and beaten a combined 15 lengths in the process. The drop in trip will need to work its magic.
ROCKET POWER is a course winner but struggled to build on that form when beaten in a G3 at Jebel Ali Mile and has a lot to prove, as do the remainder of the field.
SELECTIONS: 1. SYMBOLIZATION, 3. HORS DE COMBAT, 7. ABOVE N BEYOND, 2. FORJATT & 6. AURUM
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