 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Dubai World Cup Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Dubai Gold Cup
Having won the last three renewals of the G2 3,200m Dubai Gold Cup courtesy of that top-class stayer VAZIRABAD, the French can again rule the roost in the big staying race of the night. This time there is no VARIZABAD, but Freddy Head’s versatile FRANKEL gelding CALL THE WIND holds outstanding claims. It was not until the second half of last season that the late-developing CALL THE WIND began to shine, winning his last three races. The last of those came in ParisLongchamp’s G1 4,000m Prix du Cadran, a race which was often the route VAZIRABAD took to Dubai glory. Head chose an unorthodox preparation this spring, running his gelding over 1,900m on polytrack at Chantilly, where CALL THE WIND showed a potent final furlong kick to be a fast-finishing second.
That race will have put him spot on, but he will need a career-best performance to topple the G1 Melbourne Cup winner CROSS COUNTER, who looks the pick of Godolphin’s four-strong battalion. Having been pipped by the smart OLD PERSIAN in the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes over 2,371m at York, CROSS COUNTER improved for stepping up to 3,200m when giving the blue army their first success in Australia’s most famous race at Flemington last November.
PRINCE OF ARRAN, who ran the race of his life to finish third at Flemington, is a proven stayer and will lack nothing in fitness, having run well in the G2 Dubai City Of Gold over 2,410m earlier in the Carnival.
However, while stamina certainly won’t be a problem for CALL THE WIND, CROSS COUNTER or PRINCE OF ARRAN, several of their opponents are dipping their toes into unknown waters. They include Hong Kong challenger GOLD MOUNT, South African raider MARINARESCO, and the sole American representative PLATINUM WARRIOR.
GOLD MOUNT, who won over 2,400m at Royal Ascot as a 3YO, has made phenomenal progress in Hong Kong, first with Tony Cruz and then Richard Gibson. But since hitting the heights this time last year, when he ran two superb races against the brilliant PAKISTAN STAR, GOLD MOUNT’s form has tapered off, though Gibson reports that he has shown more of his old sparkle in the Dubai sunshine.
MARINARESCO, who was a G1 winner in his homeland, has improved in each of his three runs at the Carnival, not being disgraced in the G2 Zabeel Mile over 1,600m and then staying on in encouraging fashion to finish sixth in the G2 Dubai City Of Gold.
PLATINUM WARRIOR won over 2,000m when trained in Europe as a 3YO, boasting the distinction of beating subsequent G1 Irish Derby hero LATROBE at Curragh. And, while new trainer John Sadler is hopeful rather than confident that PLATINUM WARRIOR will stay the longer trip, the way he won a G2 at Santa Anita Park over 2,000m last month has encouraged him to throw his hat in the ring.
Of the other Godolphin runners, ISPOLINI could prove best. He comfortably beat RED GALILEO in the G3 2,810m Nad Al Sheba Trophy at the course last month having won a handicap over the same distance previously. The step up in trip looks to have made all the difference to him and he is likely to improve again.
TEAM TALK can hold his own in G3 company, however he has always struggled in this higher grade.
SELECTIONS: 2. CALL THE WIND, 9. CROSS COUNTER, 6. ISPOLINI, 5. PRINCE OF ARRAN & 10. GOLD MOUNT
S1-2 Al Quoz Sprint
Trainer Charlie Appleby won the 1,200m G1 Al Quoz Sprint 12 months ago with JUNGLE CAT and should double up with BLUE POINT this time around. The 5YO is likely to go off a very short price for the race having won each of his two starts in Group company at Meydan already this year following his switch from the Great Britain. A G1 winner at Royal Ascot in the 1,000m King's Stand Stakes in June 2018, BLUE POINT has since won easily in G2 and G3 contests over 1,000m and 1,200m respectively with a total eight lengths in hand. With the best form in the book, William Buick in the saddle and Appleby one of the carnival’s most successful trainers, he looks the one to beat.
Many trainers will be targeting the valuable place money on offer, with Richard Fahey’s SANDS OF MALI one of the most likely contenders. He caused a bit of a shock at Ascot last summer when landing the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes over 1,200m at a big price ahead of the talented HARRY ANGEL. Prior to that he’d only managed to get his head in front at G2 and G3 level when landing 1,200m contests at Haydock and Chantilly respectively and there’s a worry he won’t replicate that G1 win on his first trip to Meydan.
EKHTIYAAR was beaten easily by BLUE POINT when last seen but Doug Watson has had his fair share of Meydan winners and may make the places if he can repeat that run.
American raider STORMY LIBERAL disappointed at Santa Anita Park in G3 company over 1,200m when beaten by CARIBOU CLUB. The former had previously won four on the bounce including a G1. STORMY LIBERAL only ever does the bare minimum, winning by a nose, nose, head and a neck and he will certainly need to find a bit more to feature here on his first trip to Meydan.
CARIBOU CLUB, although likely to be a bigger price in the market, has won a G2 and G3 in his previous two appearances and could go well again.
WISHFUL THINKER, one of Hong Kong’s most progressive talents, will face G1 company for the first time in his career as he lines up for trainer Richard Gibson and jockey Alexis Badel. He arrives having won four of his previous five appearances at both Happy Valley and Sha Tin over 1,000m and 1,200m. However, that defeat did come in a G3 over 1,200m at Sha Tin and he’s got it all to do.
BRAVE SMASH, trained in Australia by Kris Lees, looks the best of the rest but will need one or two of the main protagonists to slip up to run into a place. He’s yet to win this season but finished a very nice third of 22, beaten less than a length, in a G1 over 1,200m last time out at a big price.
Fellow Australian-trained entry VIDDORA won a G1 over 1,000m at Moonee Valley back in September but has disappointed in three attempts since and has never raced internationally.
SELECTIONS: 8. BLUE POINT, 2. SANDS OF MALI, 1. STORMY LIBERAL, 6. BRAVE SMASH & 9. CARIBOU CLUB
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 8. BLUE POINT
Selections – 2. SANDS OF MALI, 1. STORMY LIBERAL, 6. BRAVE SMASH & 9. CARIBOU CLUB
S1-3:
Banker – 6. DIVINE IMAGE
Selections – 2. JAHBATH, 1. WALKING THUNDER, 11. VAN BEETHOVEN & 5. DERMA LOUVRE
S1-3 UAE Derby
Godolphin have won the prestigious G2 1,900m UAE Derby eight times but never with a filly. However, in DIVINE IMAGE they look to have an improver who has what it takes to put the boys in their place at the top level. Being by smart US dirt stallion SCAT DADDY, it is no surprise that DIVINE IMAGE has been campaigned exclusively on the dirt. She suffered her only defeat when inexperience cost her in the Listed 1,600m UAE 1000 Guineas, but has improved dramatically since stepping up in distance. DIVINE IMAGE never looks stronger than she does at the end of her races, coming from an uncompromising position to win the G3 UAE Oaks and then producing a scintillating performance to slam the colts by more than seven lengths in the Listed Al Bastakiya. Both of those races were run over this course and distance over 1,900m, so conditions look perfect for her. Granted, DIVINE IMAGE is jumping up a grade so faces her toughest test yet, but she has matured these past two months and now travels so much better in her races, while the extra distance is also thought to be a plus.
There are three other fillies taking on the colts, but both SWIFT ROSE and RAZEENA, who filled the places in the G3 UAE Oaks, were ultimately easily brushed aside by DIVINE IMAGE, who also has nothing to fear on form from SUPERIOR and AL HAYETTE on the Listed Al Bastakiya running.
Surprisingly, the Americans have yet to win this race on their favoured surface, but PLUS QUE PARFAIT could prove a real player. He has yet to win a Stakes race, but his G2 second at Churchill Downs last November over 1,700m is solid form as the winner, SIGNALMAN, went on to be placed at the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Trainer Brendan Walsh is adamant that we should forget PLUS QUE PARFAIT’s subsequent two disappointments at Fair Grounds, as he thinks the track did not suit his horse.
America are also represented by GRAY MAGICIAN, who scored a runaway victory on his first run for Peter Miller at Del Mar. Miller, subsequently delighted with the colt’s G3 fourth at Santa Anita Park over 1,600m, believes he has the quality and attitude to get the job done but is not totally convinced he has the stamina. The fact that he is also thinking about the G1 Kentucky Derby for GRAY MAGICIAN shows how highly he rates him.
Interestingly, Hirofumi Toda also has the G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in mind for Japanese challenger DERMA LOUVRE, who has won three of his six races, all on dirt.
Aidan O’Brien has had this race in mind for VAN BEETHOVEN all winter, so for a dress-rehearsal he opted for an all-weather debut at Dundalk over 1,600m in Ireland, albeit on polytrack rather than dirt. VAN BEETHOVEN was staying on well in fourth place, warranting a try over this longer trip, and he is a colt who is not short of class, having won a G2 at Curragh over 1,200m last summer and later finishing fourth to Guineas and Derby favourite TOO DARN HOT in the G2 Champagne Stakes over 1,405m at Doncaster.
However, a bigger danger to DIVINE IMAGE could come from English raider JAHBATH for trainer William Haggas. He has prepared for this with two runs on the all-weather over 1,612m and 1,600m at Southwell and Kempton, beating off the relatively weak opposition easily. This will require another step up, be he is without doubt a smart colt with a nice attitude and should go close if handling the dirt.
WALKING THUNDER lost his unbeaten record when second in the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas last month. He was readily brushed aside by ESTIHDAAF that day but ran on well at the end and will appreciate the step up in trip. It is too early to write him off, as he had previously showed plenty of promise and Frankie Dettori is an interesting booking.
SELECTIONS: 6. DIVINE IMAGE, 2. JAHBATH, 1. WALKING THUNDER, 11. VAN BEETHOVEN & 5. DERMA LOUVRE
S1-4 Dubai Golden Shaheen
When it comes to dirt racing there is no speed quite like American speed and yet again the stars and stripes brigade hold most of the trump cards. X Y JET is no strangers to Dubai, having finished second in this G1 1,200m prize 12 months ago, just being touched off by the phenomenal late burst of MIND YOUR BISCUITS close home. He was run down close home when favourite for this race in 2016, is clearly fragile having undergone knee surgery on three occasions. However, he has bounced back every time, so should he finally gain international stardom justice would be seen to have been done. Florida trainer Jorge Navarro knows he has to handle X Y JET with care, keeping him calm in the mornings, but the smile on his face after his stable-star had sailed through his Dubai dress-rehearsal at Gulfstream Park over 1,200m last month suggested that he thinks X Y JET just might make it third time lucky.
America’s East Coast champion is IMPERIAL HINT, but he has had a rear view of ROY H’s fast disappearing hooves in the last two G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprints. Another concern has to be the fact that he got travel sickness and was a late scratching from this race two years ago, so his ability to travel is taken on trust. He’s twice a G1 winner over 1,200m, so clearly has the ability to get involved. However, a number of nagging doubts make him hard to fancy for win purposes.
If there is a surprise package in the American team it is the young pretender PROMISES FULFILLED. He was only fourth behind ROY H in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, trainer Dale Romans reckons the 4YO is best fresh so is not worried about the lack of a prep-race. Romans’ 4YO is a multiple Group winner, including the G1 victory over 1,200m and with his conqueror no longer a participant, he should go well here.
Hong Kong is represented by FIGHT HERO, who surprised connections when despite travelling wide and enjoying no cover, stuck on well to produce a career-best second over 1,200m in Korea last September. FIGHT HERO is the mount of Joao Moreira, but the horse has not managed to reproduce that form since returning to Sha Tin and is rated much inferior to the likes of X Y JET and IMPERIAL HINT by the official assessors. Though this is a big step-up to the handicaps he has been running in Hong Kong, he returns to his favorable 1,200m distance and connections wouldn’t be bringing him over to Dubai unless they thought he was capable of putting up a solid performance. He might struggle to serve it up to the likes of X Y JET and PROMISES FULFILLED, but could complete the placings and outrun his likely big odds.
Local raider DRAFTED has been in good form winning three times over course and distance since December. This requires a huge step up, though, and he is likely to find a few of these too good for him.
SELECTIONS: 3. X Y JET, 4. PROMISES FULFILLED, 2. IMPERIAL HINT, 5. DRAFTED & 10. FIGHT HERO
S1-5 Dubai Turf
Japanese horses have a very strong recent record in the G1 1,800m Dubai Turf. Since 2014, horses from the Land of the Rising Sun have taken the G1 contest three times, including two of the past three years. And in ALMOND EYE, they look to hold strong claims of enhancing that already impressive record. Sakae Kunieda’s 4YO filly is unbeaten in her last five starts and is already a four-time G1 winner, with the most recent of those coming in the 2,400m Japan Cup in November. While that was over much further than this, she has won races at 1,600m right up to 2,400m, so is incredibly versatile. She has been kept back for this and will prove very hard to beat if reproducing the form she has shown in her career so far.
Caspar Fownes’ SOUTHERN LEGEND is bidding to become the first horse trained in Hong Kong to win the race. The 6YO has been very consistent in recent times, getting within touching distance of the world’s best miler, BEAUTY GENERATION, on a number of occasions. He has been largely campaigned over 1,600m, but he looked to relish the step up to 2,000m when a clear second to EXULTANT in the G1 Hong Kong Gold Cup. That looks strong form with that being the winner’s second G1 of the season, so you can expect Fownes’ runner to run well again here.
Godolphin won the race in 2018 with BENBATL and they are set to be double-handed this time around with DREAM CASTLE and WOOTTON. DREAM CASTLE won the 1,800m G1 Jebel Hatta on his last start where he had WOOTTON placed second and CENTURY DREAM ran fourth in behind. That was his third win in a row and he did it impressively, quickening away in the style of a horse on the upgrade. This clearly demands more, but he’s improving with every run and should give the favourite plenty to think about.
WOOTTON will be having his third start for trainer Charlie Appleby after moving from France. He was perhaps unlucky not to finish closer on his first start for the yard in the 1,600m G2 Zabeel Mile where he met interference in running. Appleby’s 4YO was then well backed for the G1 Jebel Hatta, but was soundly beaten by DREAM CASTLE and he appears up against it in trying to reverse the form in this race.
Ryan Moore’s two wins in the race are the joint-most by any jockey and he rides Aidan O’Brien’s I CAN FLY. The daughter of FASTNET ROCK comes into this after an easy success in an all-weather conditions race at Dundalk over 1,400m earlier this month. She faces an entirely different calibre of opposition here, but she does possess some strong form from last season with victory in a G2 company as well as a neck second to ROARING LION in G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot. Both of those runs were over 1,600m and although she was quietly fancied for the G1 Epsom Oaks over 2,405m, she finished down the field and still has to prove she stays further than 1,600m.
Midway through last season, many saw WITHOUT PAROLE as a future star. His victory in the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes at Ascot over 1,600m saw him sent off a short price for the G1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, but he finished a disappointing seventh. He’s been down the field on his last two starts too and looks a risky proposition based on that.
Instead, the placings can be completed by David O’Meara’s LORD GLITTERS. Since arriving at the O’Meara yard in 2017, the 6YO has been incredibly consistent, finishing out of the placings just twice in 10 starts. The son of WHIPPER was just touched off in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot over 1,600m, then again over the same course and distance on his next start. He finally got his Group success when winning the G3 Strensall Stakes at York over 1,761m, while he was just over two lengths behind ROARING LION in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on his most recent start. LORD GLITTERS has a good record fresh too and with his best performance coming over this distance, he should go nicely at a decent price.
SELECTIONS: 7. ALMOND EYE, 2. DREAM CASTLE, 13. WOOTTON, 6. LORD GLITTERS & 1. SOUTHERN LEGEND
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 7. ALMOND EYE
Selections – 2. DREAM CASTLE, 13. WOOTTON, 6. LORD GLITTERS & 1. SOUTHERN LEGEND
S1-6:
Banker – 2. OLD PERSIAN
Selections – 6. REY DE ORO, 7. SUAVE RICHARD, 1. CHEVAL GRAND & 3. MAGIC WAND
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 7. ALMOND EYE, 2. DREAM CASTLE & 13. WOOTTON
S1-6: Multiple – 2. OLD PERSIAN, 6. REY DE ORO & 7. SUAVE RICHARD
S1-7: Multiple – 10. YOSHIDA, 3. NORTH AMERICA & 12. THUNDER SNOW
S1-6 Dubai Sheema Classic
Jockey William Buick has won the last two renewals of the 2,410m G1 Dubai Sheema Classic with JACK HOBBS and HAWKBILL. The latter was trained by Charlie Appleby and the duo team up again in this year’s race with likely favourite OLD PERSIAN. Appleby’s 4YO was last seen when narrowly taking the G2 Dubai City Of Gold over 2,410m from RACING HISTORY. That was the third G2 win of his career after successes at Ascot and York last season. He was tried over 2,905m in the G1 St Leger Stakes, but clearly didn’t stay that day and he looks the one to beat back over this shorter distance. He’s won three of his four starts over the same distance trip, so should prove a tough nut to crack again.
Aidan O’Brien last won the race in 2013 and he saddles MAGIC WAND this time around. The 4YO filly is another who brings a solid level of form, with a number of very good performances in Europe to her name last season. She ran in the G1 1,900m Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream Park on her seasonal reappearance where she was no match for the winner BRICKS AND MORTAR. The distance of that race looked on the short side for her and she should be much more at home over this extended trip. She beat subsequent G1 winner WILD ILLUSION over 2,400m at Ascot, so if she were to reproduce that sort of form here, she’d give the favourite plenty to think about.
Japanese raider REY DE ORO returns to Meydan having finished fourth twelve months ago. He was sent off favourite last year, but was comfortably beaten. Kazuo Fujisawa’s runner has won a G1 over 2,000m since, but it’s hard to establish how that form correlates with his rivals. Being the highest rated horse in the line-up, he’s entitled to plenty of respect, but he might just find one or two too good once again.
O’Brien’s other runner HUNTING HORN has been inconsistent in recent times. He won the G3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot over 1,993m in impressive fashion during the middle of last season, but hasn’t really built on that since. The son of CAMELOT has travelled all over the world since that win and it looks as if that may have caught up with him.
Hugh Bowman has enjoyed plenty of success recently with victories aboard WINX in Australia and also in the Hong Kong Derby on FURORE. He rides CHEVAL GRAND, who is trained in Japan by Yasuo Tomomichi. Being a 7YO, the son of HEART’S CRY is one of the more exposed in the field, but he remains very consistent with a third and fourth in his last two runnings, both in G1 company over 2,400m and 2,500m. He didn’t finish far behind REY DE ORO in the most recent of those in the G1 Arima Kinen at Nakayama and there doesn’t look to much between them on recent evidence. Being a 7YO, you’d have to think we know where we are with CHEVAL GRAND and although he’s admirably consistent, I only envisage him finishing among the places at best.
Joao Moreira has been booked to ride another Japanese raider in SUAVE RICHARD who finished fourth in his trial for this in the G2 1,800m Nakayama Kinen last month. The step up in distance to this 2,410m trip is likely to suit as he showed when third to ALMOND EYE in the 2,400m G1 Japan Cup last November and he is another one likely to be involved.
Although he finished three lengths down in third behind OLD PERSIAN and RACING HISTORY in the G2 Dubai City Of Gold, connections of DESERT ENCOUNTER can count themselves unlucky. David Simcock’s runner was caught wide throughout and it was no surprise that he found little when asked for an effort. Again being a 7YO, it’s hard to think there’s a lot of improvement left, but given his success in a G1 at Woodbine over 2,400m, that surely wasn’t his true running and he could easily outrun his odds if gets things more his own way this around.
SELECTIONS: 2. OLD PERSIAN, 6. REY DE ORO, 7. SUAVE RICHARD, 1. CHEVAL GRAND & 3. MAGIC WAND
S1-7 Dubai World Cup
The world famous all blue silks of Godolphin have had an extraordinary 12 months. A first Derby victory at Epsom was sandwiched in between landing this race with THUNDER SNOW and lifting the G1 Melbourne Cup in November, and they’ve hit the ground running this season with a 1-2-3 in the G1 Golden Slipper.
We’ve never had a back-to-back winner of the 2,000m G1 Dubai World Cup since it was created in 1996, but it’s very rare that you have a champion defending their crown at their peak. AFRICAN STORY was the latest to try and fail in 2015, when returning to take on the world’s best as a regressive 8YO proved too big an ask. In contrast, THUNDER SNOW is a 5YO in good form and has leading claims of retaining his title. The son of HELMET put up a good show to finish second by a neck in the 2,000m G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes at Belmont Park in September before another cracking run in the 2,000m G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs when third to ACCELERATE. After four months off the track, last year’s winner set himself up for this race by finishing second to CAPEZZANO in the 2,000m G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 on Dubai Super Saturday three weeks ago. That performance certainly didn’t set the world alight, but the way he ran out of steam at the end suggested he was in need of the run. Connections will have been building towards this race for the last six months or more and he’s expected to go close again.
CAPEZZANO spearheads a three-pronged attack from trainer Salem bin Ghadayer and comes into this race looking for a fourth straight win. He left THUNDER SNOW trailing behind in that recent run in the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3, though the runner-up looked to be lacking race fitness, while his two wins before then both came over 1,600m in handicap company. He’s certainly a horse on an upward curve but it will take another career-best to take one of the biggest prizes of them all.
Stablemates GRONKOWSKI and AXELROD were also in action on Dubai Super Saturday. The former ran a close fifth in the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 and is expected to come on for the run, while AXELROD disappointed back in 10th in the 1,600m G3 Burj Nahaar. GRONKOWSKI hasn’t progressed since his second to JUSTIFY in the G1 Belmont Stakes last summer. He showed glimpses of a return to form in the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 last time out and could fight out the places if back to his best.
NORTH AMERICA has won seven of his last 11 starts, all of which have been run on the dirt at Meydan, and looks like improving on his effort in this race 12 months ago. The son of DUBAWI completely missed the start last year and never got himself into the race, eventually finishing tailed off last by some distance. He’s been well away on both his starts since and should feature if he can break sharply again.
GUNNEVERA was another who started a bit slowly last year and could show up better this time around. He ran a blinder to finish second in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic and could fill the places if reproducing that form.
Japanese hopes rest on K T BRAVE and Joao Moreira. He’s a highly-rated dirt performer, and has one of the very best in the saddle, but we’re yet to see how his form from Japan stacks up and it would take a monster performance to mix it in this company on his first start at Meydan.
Also making his first start at the track is the multiple G1-winnier YOSHIDA. Having raced solely on turf for his first 10 starts, the William Mott-trained 5YO has been switched to the dirt with some success. He landed a G1 over 1,800m at Saratoga on his first ever start on the surface and was then fourth in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic, finishing just a nose behind THUNDER SNOW. A re-run of that performance would put him right in contention and he makes plenty of appeal as a lightly-raced horse that we may yet have seen the best of.
SELECTIONS: 10. YOSHIDA, 3. NORTH AMERICA, 12. THUNDER SNOW, 2. CAPEZZANO & 7. GRONKOWSKI
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