 Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth Stakes Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Percy Sykes Stakes
KIAMICHI looms as the one to beat following a brilliant month of racing. She won the G1 Golden Slipper then followed up last Saturday with a strong performance over 1,400m. Back at 1,200m might suit even more.
CHEER LEADER has done her recent racing in Melbourne, albeit in easier races, and is the fresh horse on the scene. However, the way she won her last start at Moonee Valley indicated she is a galloper with plenty of ability. Should get a cosy run from her barrier and will be hard to beat.
ATHIRI has been racing consistently and has a 7lbs advantage at the weights over ANAHEED. The only concern is a lot of recent racing but she has to be considered.
ANAHEED is drawn awkwardly in barrier 11 but has solid form including a sixth behind KIAMICHI in the G1 Golden Slipper. Her trainer indicated that she wasn’t happy in the wet track conditions last start, but she still ran well.
PIN SEC is a lightly raced filly and shows good potential. It may pay to forgive her recent failure on a heavy track. A firmer surface will be a positive.
SELECTIONS: 1. KIAMICHI, 5. CHEER LEADER, 6. ATHIRI, 2. ANAHEED & 3. PIN SEC
S1-2 Arrowfield 3yo Sprint (Royal Sovereign Stakes)
CLASSIQUE LEGEND is a promising galloper being brought along patiently by trainer Les Bridge. It might pay to overlook his recent third at Rosehill where he was trapped very wide throughout. His run was super and he is the one to beat.
New Zealand 3YO AVANTAGE has an imposing record of seven wins from eight starts. Her most recent start at Rosehill was very impressive when she led and fought on strongly.
ENCRYPTION is racing consistently and generally in better quality races than this. His most recent run at Rosehill was in a G1 sprint and was excellent. Sure to get a cosy run from a low barrier, so must be included.
In an open race BALLER, TROPE and PROPHET’S THUMB all have winning chances, especially with the likelihood of solid upfront tempo. Expect them to be running on hard if the race map turns out as expected.
SELECTIONS: 7. CLASSIQUE LEGEND, 11. AVANTAGE, 2. ENCRYPTION, 8. BALLER & 10. TROPE
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 7. CLASSIQUE LEGEND
Selections – 11. AVANTAGE, 2. ENCRYPTION, 8. BALLER & 10. TROPE
S1-3: Banker – 1. VERRY ELLEEGANT
Selections – 3. FRANKELY AWESOME, 2. ARISTIA, 6. ALIFEROUS & 10. ROCKNAVAR
S1-3 Australian Oaks
VERRY ELLEEGANT looks like a future star of Australian racing. All of her career runs have been full of merit despite her being immature and sometimes wayward in her races. Her most recent win was dominant, so expect her to win again.
FRANKELY AWESOME looks to be the main danger to the favourite after a strong finish last start behind VERRY ELLEEGANT. She profiles well for the 2,400m and getting Hugh Bowman to ride is a bonus.
ARISTIA has to be considered because she is proven at the distance, having won the G1 VRC Oaks over 2,500m at Flemington last spring. Her last start third was solid and she is sure to be fitter.
ALIFEROUS could be the wildcard following her stunning last-to-first win at this track last Saturday over 2,000m. She finished powerfully so must be respected.
ROCKNAVAR might be the best outsider. She ran in the race won by ALIFEROUS and covered a lot of ground in a race in which the winner ran on along the rails. Gets back, so barrier 15 is not a problem.
SELECTIONS: 1. VERRY ELLEEGANT, 3. FRANKELY AWESOME, 2. ARISTIA, 6. ALIFEROUS & 10. ROCKNAVAR
S1-4 Queen Elizabeth Stakes
This looks to be the ideal farewell present for WINX. She has been unbeatable for the past four years and I don’t expect that to change here. Everything seems to profile perfectly, so sit back and enjoy the ride.
HARTNELL seems the most likely horse to fill the second placing. He is racing as well as ever and his recent form is strong.
HAPPY CLAPPER seems to be forever the bridesmaid to WINX, so expect another strong showing. Disregard his most recent run in Melbourne where he had some issues. Back to Randwick suits him so he must be included.
HE’S EMINENT is a European galloper that has to be respected. He ran a bold race first-up behind AVILIUS and I expect him to roll along up front in similar fashion again.
DANZDANZDANCE is a quality New Zealand galloper with strong form. She was an excellent third last start to AVILIUS and should be fitter.
KLUGER is a Japanese galloper and ran well last Saturday in the G1 Doncaster Mile. Not as well suited under these conditions but did finish as well as HARTNELL.
SELECTIONS: 7. WINX, 2. HARTNELL, 1. HAPPY CLAPPER, 4. HE’S EMINENT & 8. DANZDANZDANCE
S1-5 Sydney Cup
European visitor DUBHE profiles strongly for this race and is clearly the one to beat. He is only lightly raced with seven career starts and trained by Melbourne Cup-winning trainer Charlie Appleby. He was super impressive in his most recent win on turf in Dubai and a repeat of that run will be enough to win this. The rest of the field is made up of largely second-tier stayers, and most of them are racing well, but it is difficult to see them troubling DUBHE.
GLORY DAYS is a New Zealand visitor with solid form and should not be overlooked having won six of his past ten starts. His latest win was impressive, when she easily accounted for well-performed stayer SIR CHARLES ROAD, so don’t dismiss her.
MIDTERM produced a long, sustained sprint to win last start and seems to be hitting form at the right time.
YOGI has long been aimed at this race and all indications are that he is ready to realize his potential. Being drawn out wide suits him and Craig Williams to ride is a bonus.
BIG DUKE has strong recent form and is a chance to figure in the placings but barrier 21 is not ideal.
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN was most impressive in the main lead-up race, but until now hasn’t been regarded as good enough to win a Sydney Cup. Glen Boss to ride and a low weight bring him into place calculations.
SELECTIONS: 10. DUBHE, 12. GLORY DAYS, 11. MIDTERM, 8. YOGI & 5. BIG DUKE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 10. DUBHE
Selections – 12. GLORY DAYS, 11. MIDTERM, 8. YOGI & 5. BIG DUKE
S1-6: Banker – 16. AMPHITRITE
Selections – 4. DIXIE BLOSSOMS, 1. ALIZEE, 5. INVINCIBLE GEM & 18. NAKEETA JANE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 10. DUBHE, 12. GLORY DAYS & 11. MIDTERM
S1-6: Multiple – 16. AMPHITRITE, 4. DIXIE BLOSSOMS & 1. ALIZEE
S1-7: Multiple – 6. WINTER BRIDE, 5. SPRIGHT & 3. I AM EXCITED
S1-6 Coolmore Legacy Stakes (Queen of the Turf Stakes)
AMPHITRITE could be the one to beat here. Fresh from running well at Flemington at her most recent start, she has dodged the heavy tracks of Sydney and looks nicely weighted. Barrier 10 and Craig Williams to ride looks good.
DIXIE BLOSSOMS is a quality mare which acquitted herself well last Saturday in the G1 Doncaster Mile. Coming back to race against her own sex suits, so expect her to be hard to beat.
ALIZEE is the highest-rated runner and on her best form would be far too good. However, she has had plenty of racing and may be vulnerable. This big track suits her so she must be respected.
INVINCIBLE GEM maps well for this race. She is honest and generally rates well at this level. The track also suits her and Corey Brown is in top form. Must be included.
NAKEETA JANE started her campaign in brilliant fashion, but judging by a modest fourth at her most recent start, I am treading wearily. Back to 1,600m suits, but not sure she is going as well as she was a month ago.
PROMPT RESPONSE has to be considered following her excellent fourth behind WINX last start. On that occasion she settled handy and even after WINX sailed by, she held her ground well. This distance may test her, but barrier 6 is a positive. Will look a winning chance at some stage.
SELECTIONS: 16. AMPHITRITE, 4. DIXIE BLOSSOMS, 1. ALIZEE, 5. INVINCIBLE GEM & 18. NAKEETA JANE
S1-7 Sapphire Stakes
WINTER BRIDE won impressively in a similar race at Rosehill on 9th March. She is building an imposing record with nine wins from 18 starts and has handled all types of track conditions. My only concern is that she has drawn barrier 1 and that may not be the best place to be on the track late in the day.
SPRIGHT chased WINTER BRIDE home at Rosehill and has since ran an excellent second in Melbourne at weight for age level which is super form for this race. She tends to be slowly away, which makes winning in top company difficult.
I AM EXCITED is a high quality mare that is ideally suited here, especially if the track is not as rain affected as in previous weeks in Sydney her recent run at G1 level against the males was full of merit. Hard to beat.
ELLICAZOOM needs the surface to be improving because she struggles in the wet. Her recent form is solid and being drawn out wide might be an advantage late in the day.
EGYPTIAN SYMBOL might be a chance at big odds. Her fresh form is terrific and she handles all conditions. Kerrin McEvoy to ride is a bonus.
SELECTIONS: 6. WINTER BRIDE, 5. SPRIGHT, 3. I AM EXCITED, 9. ELLICAZOOM & 8. EGYPTIAN SYMBOL
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