 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for 2,000 Guineas Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 3yo+ Handicap
Newmarket stages the opening two Classics of the British Flat season and the action at the two day meeting kicks off with a competitive handicap over 1,800m. This is normally a very good race and you often see horses come back to contest the valuable Cambridgeshire Handicap over the same course and distance in September. The fact that six of the last 10 winners were 4YOs shows that this race often goes to promising young types and POWER OF DARKNESS is expected to continue that trend. Marcus Tregoning’s son of POWER won both his starts last season before being gelded and having a wind operation. Both those procedures seemed to do the trick when he ran an excellent race on his reappearance at this track a fortnight ago to finish a close second over 1,600m. He was unlucky that day, as he had to be switched around his rivals and only narrowly failed to get to the winner. Tregoning has made no secret of how much he rates him and he looks well-handicapped off his current rating. Expect him to go very close here before having a go at some of the biggest handicaps of the summer like the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot.
The aforementioned Cambridgeshire Handicap is one of the premier handicaps of the season, but its consolation race, the Silver Cambridgeshire, is also gaining a reputation for itself. In 2017, ADDEYBB won it before landing a 1,600m G2 at Sandown the following April, and the winner of last year’s renewal, JAZEEL, takes his chance on Saturday. This will be his first start since that success when he was trained by Mick Channon. He is now under the care of Jedd O’Keeffe and has been gelded. Now, don’t go expecting him to make the same kind of progress as ADDEYBB, but he still has potential off a mark of 90 and O’Keeffe’s horses have been running well.
Sir Michael Stoute has won this race twice in the past decade and he saddles ELECTOR for The Queen. There is something of a pattern emerging here as this son of DANSILI has also been gelded over the winter. A return of just one win from seven starts doesn’t sound the most appealing, yet he has finished close to some seriously good horses like OLD PERSIAN, WISSAHICKON and AUXERRE. If the gelding operation can bring out some more improvement, he holds strong claims and Stoute has been getting plenty of winners over the past few weeks.
AL MUFFRIH is yet another to have been gelded since his last start and is probably the least exposed runner in the entire field. The son of SEA THE STARS has had just three starts but they have all been decent efforts and expect Silvestre de Sousa to try to make all just like James Doyle did when winning a 2,000m maiden at Newbury on him last May.
Roger Varian had an incredible Craven meeting here last month and his IBRAZ should improve on his seasonal reappearance effort in Newbury over 1,600m a few weeks ago when the ground was good-to-soft. He won over this distance at Sandown last summer on good-to-firm, so conditions will be more to his liking on Saturday.
Godolphin won this prize 12 months ago with OASIS CHARM and they rely solely on VINTAGER this time round. Formerly trained by David Menuisier, he was a good fourth in a 1,993m G3 contest at Royal Ascot last summer, before comfortably landing a 1,600m handicap at Newmarket’s July course. His two efforts since moving to Charlie Appleby have been disappointing, though, and he has to conceded a lot of weight to his rivals.
Mark Johnston should always be feared in races like this and AQUARIUM has claims following a decent effort last time out. However, he has been very busy of late and there may be one or two fresher than him here.
SELECTIONS: 9. POWER OF DARKNESS, 10. JAZEEL, 7. ELECTOR, 8. AL MUFFRIH & 6. IBRAZ
S1-2 Palace House Stakes
MABS CROSS will be looking to become only the second horse ever to win the G3 Palace House Stakes over 1,000m twice following her win last year. SOLE POWER did the double in 2013 and 2014. Michael Dods’ charge stayed on well under pressure inside the final furlong to get the better of JUDICIAL by a neck in the Newmarket contest 12 months ago. Her season ended in style when landing the G1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp over the same distance at ParisLongchamp by a head with the talented BATTAASH back in fourth. She ran some other fine races last season, including when finishing second ahead of BLUE POINT in the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m. She should still run well, but it is worth remembering that MARSHA in 2017 was the first to successfully carry the maximum G1 penalty since LOCHSONG in 1994.
That penalty is likely to prove too tough a task for her, especially against the progressive Aidan O’Brien-trained 3YO SERGEI PROKOFIEV. The Irish raider has the benefit of a run already this season, coming home in front of CHESSMAN, albeit at Listed level, over 1,149m at Navan. He was a G3 winner over 1,000m at Newmarket last October but his most eye-catching run came at Royal Ascot in the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m. He finished third that day but, with second placed ADVERTISE fancied for the G1 2,000 Guineas Stakes and the winner, CALYX, returning to win in scintillating style at Ascot on Wednesday, the form looks very strong.
The aforementioned JUDICIAL lines up once again looking to get the better of a few of these and he is much better off at the weights with MABS CROSS for his neck defeat last year. He was unlucky that day as he beat those he raced with up the middle, only for MABS CROSS to come flying up the stands’ side. He went on to land a G3 contest over 1,009m at Sandown in July, goes well fresh and will like the ground.
Elsewhere, the consistent TARBOOSH, trained by Paul Midgley, deserves a crack at this level having finished first or second in six of his previous seven appearances. He is another with the benefit of a run having finished third at Musselburgh over 1,001m at the beginning of April following a break of 157 days. Prior to that, he had won a 22-runner handicap at Doncaster last October and along with MAJOR JUMBO, looks one of the best of those trying Group company for the first time.
Kevin Ryan’s MAJOR JUMBO could have a very good season in front of him. He was a little weak last year, but ended up winning a 1,200m handicap at York on his final start. He is a course and distance winner and ran a hugely promising race when second to INVINCIBLE ARMY over 1,202m at Doncaster in March.
EL ASTRONAUTE finished just a head in front of TARBOOSH at Musselburgh and this speedball will be hoping to burn off his rivals from the front. He won a Listed race over 1,100m at Maisons-Laffitte in October and also landed a valuable handicap at York last summer over 1,081m, getting the better of 18 rivals.
Charles Hills’ EQUILATERAL has been slightly disappointing since running away with a 1,200m novice event at Doncaster a year ago. The drop back to the minimum trip could work but he has plenty of questions to answer.
Roger Varian is a trainer who has hit the ground running already this season and his unexposed filly QUEEN OF DESIRE lines up following a first-time-out Listed win at Bath over 1,009m after 213 days off. She is progressive but will need to improve to trouble these.
SELECTIONS: 11. SERGEI PROKOFIEV, 5. JUDICIAL, 1. MABS CROSS, 6. MAJOR JUMBO & 9. TARBOOSH
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 11. SERGEI PROKOFIEV
Selections – 5. JUDICIAL, 1. MABS CROSS, 6. MAJOR JUMBO & 9. TARBOOSH
S1-3:
Banker – 6. CORONET
Selections – 2. DEFOE, 4. RED VERDON, 5. YOUNG RASCAL & 3. MILDENBERGER
S1-3 Jockey Club Stakes
Since 1950, only one horse has successfully defended the 2,400m G2 Jockey Club Stakes. That was PHARDANTE in 1987 and DEFOE will be hoping to repeat the feat this year around. Last year’s winner needs to bounce back after a disappointing reappearance at Newbury in a G3 over 2,400m. He was carrying a penalty that day, but definitely ran below par and will need more here against stronger opposition. His win in last year’s race was his last victory and although he has run well in a number of Group contests since, he hasn’t managed to get his head in front. The form of the Roger Varian stable is a big positive, so he’s definitely one for the shortlist, although he might just find one or two too good again.
That’s because he’ll certainly find it hard giving weight to the mare, CORONET. John Gosden’s daughter of DUBAWI has some very strong form in the book with her two most recent runs reading particularly well. She finished second in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks over 2,371m to SEA OF CLASS, the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe runner-up, and after that she was just a length behind MAGICAL in the G1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes over 2,392m. MAGICAL then went on to finish a close second to ENABLE in the G1 Breeders' Cup Turf, giving the form real substance and making CORONET a leading contender here. The 5YO has a good record fresh too, so providing she can back-up the form from last season, she should play a major role here.
Like DEFOE, YOUNG RASCAL put in a below par effort at Newbury last time. The son of INTELLO had been highly touted since winning the G3 Chester Vase over 2,457m last season. That was a performance that earnt him a run in the G1 2,405m Derby Stakes, where he never really featured and finished a distant seventh. He was successful on both his subsequent starts, though, which included a dead-heat with MORANDO in a G3 at Newbury over this distance. Both of those wins were with ease in the ground, so connections would like to see some rain fall after a warm and dry Easter.
In the same ownership, COMMUNIQUE and MILDENBERGER have plenty to prove having run disappointingly on their seasonal reappearances. Of the two, MILDENBERGER is slightly preferred. Mark Johnstone’s 4YO was highly tried last season and ran well in a number of races. On his seasonal reappearance at Epsom, he slipped exiting the stalls over 2,015m and never got involved. He finished strongly, though, and will surely be fitter this time around.
RED VERDON’s victory in a 2,379m conditions race at Doncaster in March was his first in over a year. Prior to that, the 6YO had been globetrotting, taking in the G1 Caulfield Cup in October and the G1 Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin. He finished down the field in both of those races, but he’s been gelded since and his win at Doncaster suggests he might be a better horse for it. Ed Dunlop’s runner should go well and can run into the money.
SELECTIONS: 6. CORONET, 2. DEFOE, 4. RED VERDON, 5. YOUNG RASCAL & 3. MILDENBERGER
S1-4 2,000 Guineas Stakes
Largely due to the dominance of Aidan O’Brien, the 1,600m G1 2,000 Guineas Stakes has headed back over the Irish Sea a remarkable 11 times since the turn of the millennium, and the master of Ballydoyle looks set to play another strong hand. Two of his runners, MAGNA GRECIA and TEN SOVEREIGNS, occupy the top two spots in the betting and it would be no surprise at all to see the first Classic of the season go to O’Brien.
TEN SOVEREIGNS has been well-fancied for this race since extending his unbeaten run to three in the G1 Middle Park Stakes over 1,200m last September. His 2YO form is faultless, winning three from three, including a G1 and a G3, and this son of NO NAY NEVER has to be respected. However, he’s yet to go further than 1,200m and his pedigree does not suggest the step up to 1,600m, particularly with the track’s uphill finish, will suit. His sire won at no further than 1,200m and the damsire won once at 1,400m but was at his best over shorter. He’s not the most attractive price given the doubts over stamina and others are preferred.
The 1,600m trip poses no such problem for stablemate MAGNA GRECIA, who has already been successful over the distance having won the G1 Futurity Stakes at Doncaster last season. He put in a strong late run to land that race and his ability to see out the trip could prove crucial here.
If it’s not O’Brien that’s responsible for another Irish triumph in this race, then MADHMOON, trained by Kevin Prendergast, could be the one. The son of DAWN APPROACH was earmarked as a future superstar after a very impressive debut over this trip at Leopardstown, and then followed that up with another taking win in G2 company. He made his seasonal reappearance in a Listed race over 1,400m at Leopardstown at the start of April, and despite having to settle for second that day, he should be in good shape for this. The extra distance and better ground will suit and he looks like playing a major part in this race before potentially a tilt at the G1 Derby Stakes in June.
There have been a couple of latecomers to the Guineas scene in the shape of SKARDU and AL HILALEE. The former laid down a serious marker for this race when taking the G3 Craven Stakes over course and distance last month. He came with a strong, late run to land that race and finish ahead of ROYAL MARINE and SET PIECE who will both have to reverse that form here. ROYAL MARINE was very strong in the market that day and had little luck in-running before powering home late. There is every reason to believe he will shape better here, but could do with some more rain as he is more effective on a soft surface. SKARDU would be in the shake up if he can step forward again from his G3 win, but this is certainly hotter company.
AL HILALEE is the other one to enter the reckoning in recent days, having only been supplemented for the race on Monday. Unbeaten in two starts as a 2YO, including over this trip in Listed company, the son of DUBAWI makes plenty of appeal and must be showing plenty at home to have earnt a late call-up.
Unlike recent entry AL HILALEE, ADVERTISE has had this race on his agenda since finishing second in the G1 1,400m Dewhurst Stakes at this track in October. He was runner-up to long-time Guineas favourite TOO DARN HOT, who has been ruled out of the race through injury, and presents a danger on that piece of form. However, he also has stamina concerns and might struggle to see out the 1,600m as well as others in the race.
SELECTIONS: 9. MADHMOON, 10. MAGNA GRECIA, 13. ROYAL MARINE, 16. SKARDU & 2. AL HILALEE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:
Banker – 9. MADHMOON
Selections – 10. MAGNA GRECIA, 13. ROYAL MARINE, 16. SKARDU & 2. AL HILALEE
S1-5:
Banker – 12. LOUIS TREIZE
Selections – 13. MAWAKIB, 7. JACKSTAR, 9. INTUITIVE & 5. ALMUFTI
S1-5 3yo 81-100 Handicap
One of the trickiest puzzles to solve on 2,000 Guineas Day looks to be the 1,200m 81-100 Handicap for 3YO. A number of horses in the field have only raced a handful of times and it’s difficult to know how well they’ve trained on between two and three.
Though it does require a slight step into the unknown, LOUIS TREIZE has some good 2YO form and could be very well-handicapped for his seasonal reappearance. He bolted up by three lengths at Newcastle over 1,200m on only his second start before stepping up to 1,301m in a red-hot Class 2 at Doncaster. He didn’t appear to appreciate the step up in distance and finished halfway down the field. A return to 1,200m is a big positive and, lurking towards the bottom of the weights, this looks a good opportunity to get his season off to a nice start.
MAWAKIB will be getting weight from all of the field and looks the main danger to LOUIS TREIZE. He would be racing off a higher mark if it wasn’t for a desperately unlucky run over this trip at Kempton last month. Roger Varian’s runner was denied a clear passage and bumped around in the home straight, but still managed to run the winner to within half a length.
INTUITIVE had no such problems over the same track and trip when making a winning return at Kempton last month. He cruised into contention from the rear of the field and put the race to bed in good style in what looked a fairly strong field. The runner-up has given the form a boost by following up with a win since and he looks like being in the shake-up.
Top-weight is MOYASSAR for Richard Hannon and 2016 champion jockey Jim Crowley. Having not finished out of the first three in six career starts, he disappointed on his seasonal reappearance over course and distance and needs to bounce back. That was his first start since a wind operation and he may have just needed the run, especially having been off the track since October. More is expected today but it is still a big ask off top-weight.
In-demand jockey Oisin Murphy, who rode on Champions Day at Sha Tin last weekend, gets the leg up on CONCIERGE. He ran fifth on his seasonal reappearance in a hot 1,201m handicap at Lingfield last month and may be a bit fitter than these having run twice over the winter in Qatar.
Some of the strongest form in the race is held by Richard Hannon’s other runner BEAT LE BON, the mount of Ryan Moore. He ran MOMKIN to within a head on debut and that horse has since gone on to be placed in Group company behind 2,000 Guineas Stakes fancy SKARDU. Hannon’s runner went on to finish second in a strong renewal of a Listed 1,197m contest at Redcar and then got his first win on the board on his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield in March. The main concern is his weight and the feeling is there are a few equally talented horses lower down the card.
ALMUFTI could well be one of those. He finished third in G3 company as a 2YO and was again third to the well-regarded FOX CHAMPION on his seasonal return at this track. This race looks a little less competitive, although the step back in trip to 1,200m from 1,400m is a slight concern.
Tom Dascombe’s JACKSTAR is dropped in trip after an unsuccessful try at 1,600m last time out. He won over the minimum trip as a 2YO before also proving his stamina and winning over 1,433m on the tapeta in March. He’s lightly-raced, having had just the three starts, and is an interesting contender on his first start in a handicap.
SELECTIONS: 12. LOUIS TREIZE, 13. MAWAKIB, 7. JACKSTAR, 9. INTUITIVE & 5. ALMUFTI
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 12. LOUIS TREIZE, 13. MAWAKIB & 7. JACKSTAR
S1-6: Multiple – 3. UAE JEWEL, 2. PERSIAN MOON & 4. WALKINTHESAND
S1-7: Multiple – 7. GLOBAL WARNING, 10. FOX LEICESTER & 8. ALKAAMEL
S1-6 Newmarket Stakes
With just one career start, UAE JEWEL is the most inexperienced runner in the 2,000m Listed Newmarket Stakes. However, Roger Varian’s raider couldn’t have been much more impressive when winning the 1,600m maiden by five lengths. His trainer immediately highlighted this race as UAE JEWEL’s next target and you can expect to see an even better horse this time around given he now has a run under his belt. The impeccably bred 3YO looks a horse with a bright future and with his stable in red-hot form, he looks primed to take the step up to Listed company in his stride.
Mark Johnston won this race in 2017 with PERMIAN and he is responsible for PERSIAN MOON this year. He has plenty of experience having run seven times during his 2YO campaign. He won three times last season, and while the form of those runs doesn’t look as strong as some of his rivals, there was real promise with the way he shaped behind BANGKOK in the 1,990m G3 Classic Trial at Sandown last time. The form of that run looks pretty strong with BANGKOK quietly fancied for the Derby, so PERSIAN MOON could chase UAE JEWEL home if building on that.
BEATBOXER steps up to 2,000m here for the first time. John Gosden’s runner was impressive in winning his first two starts over 1,400m at Sandown and over 1,593m at Haydock. Those victories saw him go off favourite for the G2 Royal Lodge Stakes, but he was very disappointing finishing last of seven. Connections will be hoping a wind operation gets him back on course here, but his breeding suggests this 2,000m trip won’t too his liking. Gosden last won this race in 1995 with PRESENTING and it appears he might be waiting a little while longer for his second victory.
The placings can be completed by Richard Hannon’s WALKINTHESAND. Hannon’s inmate looked a nice type when winning a conditions race at Sandown last season over 1,400m, but it was hard to imagine he was capable of mixing it in higher company at that stage. Those doubts were short-lived, though, when he was only just touched off by KICK ON in the Listed Feilden Stakes at Newmarket on his seasonal reappearance. The step up to 1,800m looked to be the key to his improvement and you’d have to think the extra 200m here would be to his liking as well.
SELECTIONS: 3. UAE JEWEL, 2. PERSIAN MOON, 4. WALKINTHESAND & 1. BEATBOXER
S1-7 3yo 86-105 Handicap
Richard Hannon followed in his father’s footsteps when winning the 3YO Handicap over 1,600m in 2015 and could do so again with LEROY LEROY with Ryan Moore in the saddle. He put in a solid enough effort at Kempton over 1,600m last time out on his seasonal reappearance following 181 days off the track, finishing three lengths back in fourth. Prior to that he finished sixth of seven in the G2 Gran Criterium over 1,500m at Milan, Italy. So, connections clearly have faith in the horse but a return to his earlier form is needed. He won a Nursery at Doncaster over 1,600m with Andrea Atzeni in September and under Moore last season he finished second three times, so it would be no surprise to see him bounce back to form.
FOX LEICESTER was a little disappointing in the 1,600m Handicap at Sandown last time out and his powerful connections will be hoping for an improved effort here. He was well backed in the market but could only finish fourth. However, he was only three lengths back and was a further three lengths ahead of fourth-placed REEVES. The Andrew-Balding trained runner has already won this season when landing a small-runner field at Chelmsford over 1,600m by three lengths. That form is yet to be boosted but connections clearly have faith.
Ed Dunlop’s GLOBAL WARNING comes into the race in great form following a three-length victory at Newcastle last time out over 1,413m and the step up in trip to 1,600m here looks sure to suit. That was a great way to build on his first run of the season when finishing third at Kempton over 1,400m. He was beaten less than two lengths that day and holds a strong chance here. He has finished in the top three positions in all four of his runs to date, including on debut when a monster price. David Egan takes over the ride from Gerald Mosse but he should put in a solid effort.
William Haggas has his yard in fine form and the consistent ALKAAMEL will have a good go at enhancing that strike rate having won three of his previous five races, with two seconds. All five of those runs have come in 2019 so he is certainly race fit and has proved the 1,600m distance is to his liking. But he will have to prove he likes the ground having raced mostly on soft.
You will need to put a line through BLONDE WARRIOR’s last form to back him having seen him finish a tailed off laugh at Newbury on soft ground over 1,400m in April. He finished ahead of MOTAFAAWIT prior to that at Chelmsford over 1,400m last summer when finishing second, beaten just a neck by well-fancied favourite ENSHRINED. There’s no doubting his ability and conditions look set to suit. However, it will take a bit of faith to get too involved following that disappointing return to the track.
Joe Fanning won this race onboard RONALD R in 2017 but a place may be the best he can hope for here as he takes the ride on VICTORY COMMAND for Mark Johnston. Connections sent him to Meydan for the summer but things didn’t really go to plan, hitting the places on just one of his three appearances in the UAE. His return to Great Britain wasn’t all that impressive either, finishing a comfortably beaten fourth at Newmarket over 1,400m in a Listed contest. He put in some nice performances last summer, including when landing a hat-trick of 1,400m victories, with two wins at Beverley and another at Ascot, but has a little to prove here.
Hannon is also represented by BRIAN EPSTEIN, but this looks too strong for him as well as Charles Hills’ POGO.
SELECTIONS: 7. GLOBAL WARNING, 10. FOX LEICESTER, 8. ALKAAMEL, 5. LEROY LEROY & 2. VICTORY COMMAND
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