 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Poule d'Essai des Poulains Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 3yo Claiming
The 3yo Claiming over 1,850m looks a very competitive heat, where J'AURAIS DU looks like being one of a good handful of horses in with a chance. He returned to the track following a 93-day break to come sixth at Chantilly over 1,600m in the middle of April, beaten less than three lengths in a bunched finish. However, he was unable to build on that next time up over course and distance when again finishing sixth, only this time he was beaten nearly five lengths with jockey Anthony Crastus in the saddle. He does boast winning form over shorter, though. Coming home in front to land a conditions race over 1,300m in December of last year and needs to recapture that form again.
GALAXIE DETE arrives with a 100 per cent record having won his only course appearance to date, a maiden over 2,000m at Marseille when seen last month. He will of course be lacking experience against some of his opponents here but he clearly has ability based on his winning debut and will only improve for that race.
SOBERANO hit the ground running in the new year when winning a conditions race over 1,600m on the polytrack by a cosy four-length margin. He was put up for that win but still managed to put in a game effort on the synthetic surface again to land another handicap race over the same trip, beaten less than a length by BOB THE KING. Win number two came three weeks later in a handicap race over course and distance but he couldn’t match that form on turf when last seen in the conditions race at ParisLongchamp.
Former Joseph O’Brien runner CARTES will need to put his previous form behind him to get involved following a disappointing run last time out at Saint-Cloud over 2,100m when favourite. He was beaten five lengths into 11th but does boast some winning form having won the 1,600m 2yo Claiming at Chantilly in October of last year by two lengths and has also finished third four times.
JUST PROUD was an easy winner of the 1,600m handicap in November. However, he has struggled to build on that since. He was a well beaten eighth next time up at Saint-Cloud over 1,600m and has since finished a tailed off last at Chantilly following a gelding operation so he’s not one that installs much confidence.
WISHCAPE made no mistake when winning at Mont-de-Marsan in February over 2,000m. That was on the back of a second-placed finish on debut at Salon Provence over that same trip. However, he has finished outside of the places over 2,000m and 1,600m at Toulouse and Nantes respectively and will need to improve to get involved here.
Elsewhere, KISS THE DEVIL finished third on debut over 1,700m and clearly has potential. He is another who lacks experience but will have learnt a lot from his first outing.
German raider MANX has been running consistently without ever really landing a blow, including when second over 1,700m at Krefeld but is unlikely to challenge the main protagonists.
It’s been a similar story for EX NIHILO NIHILFIT. He has finished in the places on three of his previous four appearances to date across distances ranging from 1,800m to 2,200m. He wasn’t beaten far last time when finishing behind SPIRITIS in second, comfortably ahead of the third, and another solid run is expected.
SELECTIONS: 4. CARTES, 1. J'AURAIS DU, 3. GALAXIE DETE, 6. EX NIHILO NIHILFIT & 2. SOBERANO
S1-2 Prix de Saint-Georges
Sprinters often improve with age, and GOLD VIBE, runner-up in this race 12 months ago, has made phenomenal progress for Pascal Bary. He stepped from G3 company to run an excellent second in a G2 at Chantilly over 1,000m in June. However, that was merely the start of GOLD VIBE’s climb up the ladder as he went on to produce a career-best performance in the 1,000m G1 Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp at ParisLongchamp on Arc day, belying monster odds to be beaten only a head by MABS CROSS.
The latter boasted the form when winning the 1,000m G3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket last week, and, though GOLD VIBE did not reproduce his l’Abbaye run over 1,200m at Maisons-Laffitte three weeks later, it was probably one race too many at the end of a long season.
Looking through the opposition, the key race could be the 1,100m Listed contest at Fontainebleau in March, with the first four in that race - BAKOEL KOFFIE, BATWAN, SESTILIO JET and COCO CITY - all lining up again.
BAKOEL KOFFIE, who had run a blinder previously at Chantilly over 1,300m, started favourite at Fontainebleau and won with authority, and there’s no reason why he won’t confirm the placings.
However, there is plenty of stable confidence behind BATWAN, whose trainer, Philippe Sogorb, won this race twice at the start of the decade with CATCALL. BATWAN was having his first race since he was gelded, and the operation looked to have made a big difference, so he should be thereabouts again.
SESTILIO JET has since run another big race to finish third in a 1,200m Listed race at Maisons-Laffitte, but this shorter trip might just find him out.
And, while COCO CITY was only fourth at Fontainebleau, he was right on top of the first three at the line, and he enjoys a pull in the weights with the trio, which should bring them closer together.
However, FORZA CAPITANO beat BAKOEL KOFFIE on his seasonal debut over 1,300m on the polytrack at Chantilly, and, though he could subsequently not live with the trailblazing KACHY in the conditions race at Lingfield over 1,201m, few speedballs can match the pace of Tom Dascombe’s flyer. FORZA CAPITANO did finish in front of GOLD VIBE in the aforementioned Maisons-Laffitte race, but connections of the latter feel that he was not at his best that day and that the formline is best ignored.
Irish challenger THE BROGHIE MAN has been mixing it with some top sprinters at home, but he looks to have lost his way a bit, beating only one home in two of his last four races.
Of the others, KEN COLT, whose trainer won the race three years ago with FINSBURY SQUARE, looks a livelier outsider than SOSUME. SOSUME is a winner over 1,200m and ran well in plenty of competitive sprint maidens when trained in the Great Britain, but this step back to 1,000m doesn’t look ideal.
SELECTIONS: 5. GOLD VIBE, 3. FORZA CAPITANO, 8. BAKOEL KOFFIE, 4. COCO CITY & 6. BATWAN
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker –5. GOLD VIBE
Selections –Selections – 3. FORZA CAPITANO, 8. BAKOEL KOFFIE, 4. COCO CITY & 6. BATWAN
S1-3: Banker – 9. SHENDELIYA
Selections – 2. JIZELLITA, 11. ZILLIONE SUN, 8. HOLDBACKTHERIVER & 5. LA POUTANESCA
S1-3 Class 2 Handicap
This looks a tough puzzle to solve, but one of France’s top trainers, Alain de Royer Dupre, fields an interesting filly in the shape of JIZELLITA. She seems to produce her best form at this time of the year, winning twice and finishing runner-up in the other two of her four races between April and June last year. After winning over 1,600m at Saint Cloud last term, JIZELLITA then had a break until returning before Christmas, and she has gradually regained her form, running a good fourth over 2,100m at Saint Cloud last month.
Alain de Royer Dupre also has a strong chance with the lightly-raced SHENDELIYA. She was a bit of a late developer, so typical of the Aga Khan’s breed, but won on her third start over 2,200m last October at Clairefontaine. She could only finish fourth when dropping down to 1,950m at ParisLongchamp on her seasonal reappearance last month but should come on for the run. SHENDELIYA is by speed sire PIVOTAL, but she is out of a DALAKHANI mare so is suited by middle-distances, and this does not look as strong a race as the one she ran in at ParisLongchamp.
Topweight MADE TO LEAD won twice last summer, including a decent race over 1,800m at Chantilly, but her form tapered off afterwards. Though she has been eased in the weights, there’s also stamina concerns over this extra 200m.
LA POUTANESCA has been going up in the ratings, hitting form at Compiegne in the spring, winning over 1,600m and then finishing second over 1,800m. She looks to be progressive, the type that trainer David Smaga excels with, but she, too, is stepping up in trip. His pedigree doesn’t scream stamina and others are preferred.
HOLDBACKTHERIVER finished behind LA POUTANESCA in one of those Compiegne races, but she did win twice in November, over 2,200m at Amiens and 2,100m at Saint Cloud, and if she can reproduce that form she would be a player here.
LANANA won a couple of nice races last September, including over today’s distance at Chantilly, but has failed to even get near the places in her last four starts and she may need a bit more help from the handicapper before getting competitive again.
WINFOLA, the mount of Mickael Barzalona, goes well on soft ground and arrives off the back of back to back wins over 2,100m. This represents a step up in class though and he’ll need to improve again to make the frame.
Placed on her two starts this season, both in Class 2 company, is FREQUENCE MAG. Having had just the nine career starts, she looks a 4YO open to improvement and may yet have shown her best.
Others with the form in the book are preferred, though, including ZILLIONE SUN, who is making her third start of the campaign having run with promise in two competitive Class 2 handicaps. She was fourth in a Class 1 over 2,100m at Saint Cloud last season and remains off a workable handicap mark.
SELECTIONS: 9. SHENDELIYA, 2. JIZELLITA, 11. ZILLIONE SUN, 8. HOLDBACKTHERIVER & 5. LA POUTANESCA
S1-4 Poule d'Essai des Poulains
Trainer Andre Fabre has won the 1,600m Poule d'Essai des Poulains an impressive six times. His last win in the G1 contest came in 2015 when MAKE BELIEVE powered away to win by three lengths. He went on to win the G1 Prix de la Foret later in the season and Fabre will he hoping his PERSIAN KING can go onto similarly bigger things this year. This son of KINGMAN has been highly touted since winning two races at Chantilly over 1,600m in convincing fashion last season. Those victories saw him sent off a short price for the G3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket, where he narrowly saw off MAGNA GRECIA. The form of that win looks incredibly strong, with MAGNA GRECIA winning the G1 2000 Guineas Stakes over 1,600m subsequently.
While many fancied PERSIAN KING for the 2000 Guineas Stakes, Fabre was quick to target this race and given the way he drew clear on his seasonal reappearance in the 1,600m G3 Prix de Fontainebleau, he should prove a very tough nut to crack as he targets a first G1 win. He looks the most likely winner, but NEVER NO MORE should not be dismissed lightly.
Aidan O’Brien’s son of NO NAY NEVER didn’t show an awful lot of form in his 2YO season, but it’s the form of this season so far that catches the eye. He won a handicap over 1,400m in convincing fashion on his first start of 2019, before again getting the job done nicely in the Listed Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial Stakes last time over 1,400m. The runner-up that day was 2000 Guineas Stakes fourth MADHMOON, so the form of that run looks solid and providing he sees out this extra 200m, he could give PERSIAN KING plenty to think about.
ANODOR is the only horse to have beaten PERSIAN KING. That came in a 1,500m Deauville maiden and he followed that with a nice performance in the G3 Prix des Chenes at ParisLongchamp over 1,600m. ANODOR’s win there saw him go off favourite for the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, where he finished a disappointing third. He travelled like he’d want further than this 1,600m trip and might a few of his rivals a bit too good here.
Carlos Laffon-Parias’ SHAMAN comes into this seeking a four-timer. That run of wins included a Listed win at Saint-Cloud over 1,600m, as well as a G3 victory over 1,800m at ParisLongchamp last month. Both his wins came this season, so he won’t lack for race fitness and looks to be an improving type. If he can step forward again, he could make his presence felt.
On their photo finish in the 1,400m G3 Prix Djebel, MUNITIONS and GRAIGNES look closely matched. Based on his victory in that race, MUNITIONS gets the vote, but this 1,600m trip looks short of his ideal.
Instead, the placings can be completed by Joseph O’Brien’s NO NEEDS NEVER. While this is first try at 1,600m, he shaped as if the trip would be within his capabilities when a close second in the 1,400m G3 Gladness Stakes at Naas last time. He was doing the best of his work at the end of the race and should come on plenty for that run here. O’Brien’s 3YO looks a lively outsider at a double-figure price.
SELECTIONS: 8. PERSIAN KING, 10. NEVER NO MORE, 12. SHAMAN, 6. ANODOR & 4. NO NEEDS NEVER
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 8. PERSIAN KING
Selections – 10. NEVER NO MORE, 12. SHAMAN, 6. ANODOR & 4. NO NEEDS NEVER
S1-5: Banker – 10. MATEMATICA
Selections – 8. CASTLE LADY, 6. EAST, 4. SUPHALA & 2. IMPERIAL CHARM
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 8. PERSIAN KING, 10. NEVER NO MORE & 12. SHAMAN
S1-5: Multiple – 10. MATEMATICA, 8. CASTLE LADY & 6. EAST
S1-6: Multiple – 9. SILVERY MIST, 4. BEAUTY FILLY & 2. LUCIE MANETTE
S1-5 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches
There has only been one non-French trained winner of the 1,600m G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches since 2002. Last year, TEPPAL was victorious for trainer David Simcock, but prior to that it had been dominated by French runners. They look to hold another strong hand in this year’s race, with SUPHALA looking high on the shortlist.
Trainer Andre Fabre hasn’t won the race since 2011, but in this daughter of FRANKEL, he looks to have a solid contender. SUPHALA ran three times in her 2YO season where after finishing down the field on debut over 1,500m at Deauville, she won back-to-back races at Chantilly over 1600m. This 1,600m trip looks her optimum, given she was beaten over 1,400m in a G3 at Maisons-Laffitte on her seasonal reappearance this year by WATCH ME. She was just touched off that day, but back up in trip here, she looks a worth contender as Fabre seeks another big race success.
Her conqueror that day, WATCH ME is another who must come into contention. The daughter of OLYMPIC GLORY looks to have taken another step up this season and has form over 1,600m too. She won a Listed contest at Toulouse on her second career start on heavy ground, so the forecast rain surely brings her into it.
MATEMATICA’s second in the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac over 1,600m is probably the strongest piece of form in the race. Though she was narrowly defeated that day, it was a fine performance given she was the least experienced filly in the race. Carlos Laffon-Parias’ runner beat some useful rivals including the current G1 Epsom Oaks favourite PINK DOGWOOD, so is entitled to plenty of respect. The 3YO was impressive on her seasonal reappearance over 1,600m at Chantilly and looks to be improving with every run. She could take plenty of stopping if in similar sort of form here.
EAST is another contender who brings in a very solid level of form. While Kevin Ryan’s daughter of FRANKEL was soundly beaten by NEWSPAPEROFRECORD in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over 1,600m on her last start, she finished ahead of a number of well-regarded types, including JUST WONDERFUL who wasn’t beaten far in sixth in the G1 1000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket. Even though NEWSPAPEROFRECORD was beaten on her seasonal reappearance, she is held in very high regard and would almost certainly be favourite for this race, meaning the form of EAST’s second to her looks high-class form. EAST had to deny a wide draw in stall 14 that day too, so there are plenty of reasons to suggest she could be up to taking this.
Henri-Alex Pantall has supplemented CASTLE LADY. The daughter of SHAMARDAL didn’t run at all as a 2YO, but has shaped with plenty of promise on both her starts this season. Having won a Chantilly polytrack maiden over 1,600m, she was stepped up significantly in class in the G3 Prix de la Grotte at ParisLongchamp over the same distance. She quickened away nicely that day and the late entry here suggests connections think plenty of her. It’s hard to know how good she is, but running her in a G1 on just her third career start should be noted and she looks a dangerous contender here.
Aidan O’Brien won this race in 2001 and he saddles CORAL BEACH for this year’s renewal. He’s already had 13 career runs and while he won the G3 Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown over 1,400m last time, he struggled over 1,600m the run before and looks up against it here.
As such, the placings can be confirmed by Simon Crisford’s IMPERIAL CHARM. The daughter of DUBAWI didn’t show an awful lot in her 2YO season, although she did take a novice race at Newmarket over 1,400m on her final start. She stepped up markedly from that though when a good second to CASTLE LADY in the G3 Prix de la Grotte at ParisLongchamp last month. That looks strong form with CASTLE LADY one of the fancied runners for this and a repeat performance from IMPERIAL CHARM would see her involved again.
SELECTIONS: 10. MATEMATICA, 8. CASTLE LADY, 6. EAST, 4. SUPHALA & 2. IMPERIAL CHARM
S1-6 Prix Maurice Zilber
With her Lingfield conqueror, HEAVENLY HOLLY, opting out of the rematch, the path seems clear for SILVERY MIST to run a massive race back on home turf. SILVERY MIST had a wide trip when the pair clashed in a 1,401m conditions race on the polytrack at Lingfield last month, but she flew home in the last 200m and was closing fast at the line, being beaten only a length and a half. Unlike HEAVENLY HOLLY who has done all of her running on an artificial surface, SILVERY MIST is more versatile. She has been victorious on this turf course over 1,600m last October, and we know that she has the class for this as she was only beaten a short head in this grade over the 1,500m at Deauville before Christmas.
Another who should be right in the mix is Godolphin’s LUCIE MANETTE, though this 1,400m trip is probably her absolute minimum as she also has solid form over 1,900m. However, Andre Fabre was delighted with how well she picked up to win over 1,400m in Listed company at Chantilly last October, and, though she may not be as sharp as some of the others after her winter break, she has a touch of class and has to be respected.
ISOLE CANARIE has also been holding her own in this grade, and, together with the ex-Irish trained SPINNING MEMORIES, who has won two of her three races, both over this trip, is also interesting.
There is a strong British challenger in William Haggas’ BEAUTY FILLY, who is a daughter of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT, the sire of last week’s G1 2000 Guineas Stakes winner MAGNA GRECIA. BEAUTY FILLY has only once finished out of the money in eight races and handles soft ground well. The ground was on the soft side when she won at Yarmouth and Hamilton, so the recent rain will have enhanced her chances.
STYLE PRESA has never been out of the frame, and on her second to ADORABLE in a Listed race over 1,600m at ParisLongchamp last summer she would have fair place claims.
QUALISAGA has been supplemented for the race even though she finished out of the money in her last race at ParisLongchamp two weeks ago and, on all known form, should struggle to make the frame.
RIVER CANNES was without a win in 16 starts in 2018 but did manage to put that long losing run to an end three starts back over 1,300m at Chantilly. All of her best form has been over 1,300m or shorter and others are preferred.
COMEDIA ERIA can’t be discounted based on her win over 1,100m under Maxime Guyon last time out. She’s also a winner over 1,400m, though all of her best runs have come in slightly lesser company.
SELECTIONS: 9. SILVERY MIST, 4. BEAUTY FILLY, 2. LUCIE MANETTE, 3. SPINNING MEMORIES & 1. ISOLE CANARIE
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