Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Yushun Himba Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 3yo allowance

This is the race for 3YOs who belong to graduation class. In other words, this is the race for 3YO one time winner.

GREENWICH CITY, the winner of a maiden at Nakayama on 24th February, is my first choice. He finished second in an allowance race with the same standard as this race at Nakayama on 7th April and it is very good effort. He was still at almost rear of 14 runners’ field at top of homestretch, and covered final 600m for 38.2 seconds, which is the fastest among the field, to become second. Tokyo has much longer homestretch than Nakayama and his running style should suit to the race. I am very confident to select this horse as my first pick.

It looks the horse to beat GREENWICH CITY is RETROFIT ridden by Mirco Demuro. While she collected her first win at Nakayama, she finished second in a maiden, which was over the same course and distance as this race in February, and finished fourth in an allowance race with the same standard over the same course and distance as this race on 27th April. In latter race, she had traffic problem on homestretch and she was unlucky loser. And as she is a lazy horse, Demuro’s service should help her to find another gear on homestretch. RETROFIT is my second choice.

ENDO TSUDA was beaten eighth in the Listed race last time out. In fact, she did not look well in the morning and in the parade ring before the race, and Koji Kayano, who trains the filly by TURTLE BOWL, gave her two months off since then. ENDO TSUDA looks much better now in the morning, and I am sure she is now fresh horse. ENDO TSUDA is my third choice.

PRIMO DA VINCI is the winner of a maiden over the same course and distance as this race on 21st April, when she covered the final 600m for 38.0 seconds, which was the fastest among the field. And as we consider it was her first start since July 2018, this performance should be regarded highly. And PRIMO DA VINCI has been trained beautifully in the morning at Miho Training Center since the previous start. She is my fourth choice.

MADRE VOICE was well beaten in three Graded Stakes on turf since December, and this is the first start on dirt for the colt by DAIWA MAJOR. While most of DAIWA MAJOR’s progenies act better on turf than dirt, KING KAMEHAMEHA, broodmare sire of MADRE VOICE, has sent some dirt champions, such as HOKKO TARUMAE, BELSHAZZAR, and TAISEI LEGEND. The pedigree suggests MADRE VOICE should be able to act on dirt. He is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 4. GREENWICH CITY, 15. RETROFIT, 10. ENDO TSUDA, 11. PRIMO DA VINCI & 3. MADRE VOICE

S1-2 4yo and up allowance

This is the race for 4YO one time winner, and 5YO and upper two time winners.

And it is the race taken place at 2,000m turf course at Tokyo, which is the stage of the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn. As the first turn comes soon after the starting point, runners make dash toward the first turn to take the position which they want to take and it is the tendency that the pace of race could be strong. And wide draw is disadvantage at this course. It is crucial to pass through the first turn smoothly.

The most interesting runner in the field for me is MONZA, who has not run since September 2018. He is the winner of a maiden at Tokyo in May, and was beaten seventh in an allowance race of graduation class at Nakayama in September, despite he was supported as the 14 to 5 favourite in 15 runners’ field, however, he was unlucky loser, because he had serious traffic problem at homestretch. He is trained beautifully at Miho Training Center, and I believe he is ready to run on Sunday. He is my first choice.

PRINCE CHARMANT is two time winners, who won a maiden at Niigata and an allowance race at Tokyo. The past performance shows he prefer ante-clockwise track. And the aforementioned allowance race is same standard of this race, therefore, he should have ability to win here. He was fourth in an allowance race with the same standard as this race at Nakayama last time out, and the competition of this race seems to be easier than the previous start. And I believe small field helps him. He is my second choice.

JINGOIST is half-sister to REAL STEEL, winner of the G1 Dubai Turf and is trained by Yoshito Yahagi, who trained REAL STEEL. She developed slowly and did not mature enough to join the competition when she was 3YO. She is now 4YO and looks to be improving day by day. She finished second in an allowance race with the same standard as this race on 4th May at Tokyo, and it was good performance. JINGOIST is my third choice.

KAMAKURA is winless through 22 starts since March 2016, and it looked she thoroughly lost her form in 2018. Hirofumi Toda, who trains the mare, gave her five months off since November 2018, and she returned at racecourse on 29th April, when she finished fifth in an allowance race with the same standard as this race at Niigata. She performed much better there than previous starts and I have feeling that she is now bouncing back. Though 2,000m might be too short for her, Tokyo is suitable track for her. She is my fourth choice.

TOSEN VIGOR has won a maiden over 2,400m at Tokyo in June 2018 and he is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 6. MONZA, 2. PRINCE CHARMANT, 8. JINGOIST, 10. KAMAKURA & 1. TOSEN VIGOR

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:    Banker – 6. MONZA
           Selections – 2. PRINCE CHARMANT, 8. JINGOIST, 10. KAMAKURA & 1. TOSEN VIGOR
S1-3:    Banker – 8. ICE STORM
           Selections – 2. SATONO RULER, 7. PRAYER SAMSON, 5. HISHI VICTORY & 6. ENIGMA VARIATE

S1-3 Chofu Tokubetsu

Chofu Tokubetsu is the stakes race for two time winners and three time winners. It means the standard of race is the same as the Hiyoshi Tokubetsu, while the race distance and race surface are different.

My first choice is ICE STORM, bred by Darley Japan and owned by Godolphin, who gave me good impression through his last two starts. The 4YO colt by STORMING HOME finished third in an allowance race on 31st March at Hanshin and finished third again in another allowance race on 21st April at Tokyo, both of which are stake races with same standard as this race. And he has good late kick, for example, he covered final 600m for 33.0 seconds, which was the quickest among the field in his last start, and his running style should suit at Tokyo Racecourse, which has long homestretch. And it is another encouraging factor that Yutaka Take is booked for him on Sunday.

I believe the horse to beat ICE STORM is SATONO RULER, who was beaten seventh in an allowance race on 21st April at Tokyo and disappointed the punters who supported him as the second favourite. It was slowly-run race, which did not suit SATONO RULER, who is a closer. The 5YO horse by DEEP IMPACT has won two races at Tokyo Racecourse, a maiden in February 2017 and an allowance race in February 2019, and both of which are the same distance as this race. He is my second choice.

PRAYER SAMSON was beaten fourteenth in an allowance race of this class on 21st April at Tokyo. However, it was the race over dirt course, which did not suit him at all, and I am sure we can forget about this poor performance. He finished fourth in an allowance race of this class on 27th January, which was over the same course and distance as the Chofu Tokubetsu, and he should run well on Sunday if he re-produces that form. He is my third choice.

HISHI VICTORY, who won an allowance race of graduation class last time out was decent performance, he is my fourth choice.

ENIGMA VARIATE has finished second in the race with this standard for five times in the past, including an allowance race as same class as this class, at Nakayama in March 2018. Although this is the first start for the 7YO horse by HEART’S CRY since October 2018, he has been breezed at Miho Training Center for several times since the middle of April, and it looks he is fit enough to run his race. He is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 8. ICE STORM, 2. SATONO RULER, 7. PRAYER SAMSON, 5. HISHI VICTORY & 6. ENIGMA VARIATE

S1-4 Hiyoshi Tokubetsu

My first pick for the Hiyoshi Tokubetsu, the stakes race for two time winners and three time winners, is MORGENROT, who has proved at several occasions that he is competitive at this standard.

He has started four times since last November, all of which are stakes races with this standard, and finished second thrice. He ran poorly at Chukyo on 16th March, when he finished sixth in an allowance race. However, it was the race after having three months off and it was obvious that he needed the race. The 6YO horse by OPERA HOUSE went to run at Niigata on 5th May and finished second to GEKIRIN in another allowance race, which was good effort. While he has not won a race at Tokyo Racecourse, he finished second for three times at this track, including an allowance race over same distance as this race on 10th November, when he stopped the clock at 1 minute and 17.7 seconds, which is faster than standard time. All those facts indicate that MORGENROT has very good chance to win here.

I believe the horse to beat MORGENROT is MEISHO MIRAI, 4YO colt ridden by Ryuji Wada. He finished second, beaten by nose, in an allowance race, on 29th April at Niigata. This performance should be regarded highly, because that was the first start for him since December, and he should run better on coming Sunday than previous start. MEISHO MIRAI has not performed well at Tokyo Racecourse, where he started once and finished sixth in the 3yo allowance in May 2018. However, that is the race for horses belonging to Listed class and the competition there was much tougher than this race. And his sire, SOUTH VIGOROUS, has sent five winners of race over 1,300m dirt course of Tokyo in last 24 months, which is encouraging statistics for MEISHO MIRAI. He is my second choice.

MEISHO SACHISHIO, with the same owner as MEISHO MIRAI, has been consistent in this class and should have good chance to hit the board here, provided she is fit enough to show herself at her best. In fact, she has won an allowance race of this class in March 2018, and finished in first four in the last four races. It is the matter of concern for the 5YO mare that this is the first start for her since December 2018, although her form suggests that she can run her race, even after having long break. She is my third choice.

KALEIDOSCOPE was entered in the twelfth race at Tokyo on 4th May, which was an allowance race of this class, however, the race was canceled due to hail storm. The race condition this time out looks to be more suitable for her than the one on 4th May, and she is my fourth choice.

AKATSUKI JOE, who won an allowance race of graduation class at Hanshin on 24th February, has good enough speed to compete in this class and he is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 16. MORGENROT, 10. MEISHO MIRAI, 7. MEISHO SACHISHIO, 9. KALEIDOSCOPE & 14. AKATSUKI JOE

S1-5 Freeway Stakes

Freeway Stakes is named from Chuo Freeway, motorway between Tokyo and Mountain Fuji area, which is visible from the grand stand of Tokyo Racecourse. And this is the stakes race for 4YO three time winners, and 5YO and upper four time winners.

My first choice is ADAM BAROWS, whom I believe the most suitable horse to the race condition of the Freeway Stakes. He is the winner of the Wakaba Stakes, a 2,000m Listed race and one of the most important prep races for the G1 Satsuki Sho, first leg of Triple Crown for 3YO colts, at Hanshin in March 2017, and was recognized as a promising young horse at that time. However, he lost his form since then and was well beaten in nine consecutive starts. After the long lasting slump, Koichi Tsunoda, who trains the colt by HEART’S CRY, tried to send him in the race of shorter distance and it worked well. He finished fourth in an allowance race over 1,400m at Kyoto on 17th February, and finished third in another allowance race over 1,400m at Chukyo on 9th March. He is now reactivated and the time has come to vindicate the recognition as a “promising horse”. And it is a big factor that Mirco Demuro is booked for him on Sunday.

I think the horse to beat ADAM BAROWS is LILAC COLOR, who has finished in first five in the last three starts, all of which are stakes race with the same standard as the Freeway Stakes. He finished fifth in last start at Tokyo on 28th April, when he jumped slowly from the widest draw and was forced to make up too much ground. I believe he should be able to run better on coming Sunday, and he is my second choice.

TOMIKEN KIRKAS was two and half lengths ahead of LILAC COLOR and finished third in an allowance race at Tokyo on 28th April. It was good effort, because he tracked the leader who set strong pace. And he is the winner of an allowance race on 17th November over the same course and distance as the Freeway Stakes. His form shows that he does not have stability, however, he is good on his day and is my third choice.

The performance of SUAVE ARTHUR in an allowance race on 7th April at Hanshin has given me the impression that the 6YO horse by VICTOIRE PISA should be competitive in this class. He was still at the rear of 12 runners field at the top of homestretch, and covered final 600m for 34.5 seconds to finish fourth. Though he has never run at Tokyo Racecourse, I believe he likes this track and he is my fourth choice.

ALL THE GO, winner of an allowance race of lower class last time out, is my fifth choice. He will be ridden by Damian Lane, the jockey in fashion who won two Graded Stakes last weekend, including the G1 Victoria Mile.

SELECTIONS: 7. ADAM BAROWS, 2. LILAC COLOR, 8. TOMIKEN KIRKAS, 5. SUAVE ARTHUR & 3. ALL THE GO

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:    Banker – 7. ADAM BAROWS
           Selections – 2. LILAC COLOR, 8. TOMIKEN KIRKAS, 5. SUAVE ARTHUR & 3. ALL THE GO
S1-6:    Banker – 2. CHRONO GENESIS
           Selections – 7. SHADOW DIVA, 12. VICTORIA, 13. LOVES ONLY YOU & 3. CONTRA CHECK

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 7. ADAM BAROWS, 2. LILAC COLOR & 8. TOMIKEN KIRKAS
S1-6: Multiple – 2. CHRONO GENESIS, 7. SHADOW DIVA & 12. VICTORIA
S1-7: Multiple – 12. OMEGA DELACROIX, 16. NANYO PLUTO & 2. MEISHO EIKO

S1-6 Yushun Himba

There are some facts in the statistics from last ten runnings of the G1 Yushun Himba and they give us some useful clues to anticipate who will be the winner of the 80th running of Yushun Himba, the second leg of Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies.

Among 30 fillies who finished in first three in the last ten runnings, 18 of them had run the G1 Oka Sho last time out, and 16 of them finished in first three in the first leg of Triple Tiara. It may be surprising fact, because the distance of the Yushun Himba is 2,400m, while the distance of the G1 Oka Sho is 1,600m, and the extra 800m looks to be tough obstacle to overcome for 3YO fillies. However, for example, all of first five finishers in Yushun Himba in 2018, won by ALMOND EYE, had run in the Oka Sho previously.

From this point of view, I believe I should select my first choice from the first three finishers in the G1 Oka Sho, and CHRONO GENESIS, who finished third in the G1 Oka Sho, looks the most attractive for me. CHRONO GENESIS has started at Tokyo Racecourse twice in the past and she won both them, therefore, Tokyo should be her favourite track. And she is by BAGO, who is the winner of the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and I believe the sire could be the source of stamina for CHRONO GENESIS. I am quite confident to select her as my first choice.

And among 30 fillies who finished in first three in the last ten runnings of the Yushun Himba, 9 of them had run the G2 Flora Stakes, which is taken place at 2,000m course of Tokyo four weeks ago, and 8 of them finished in first three in the G2 Flora Stakes. And SHADOW DIVA, second finisher in this year’s G2 Flora Stakes, is slightly more attractive for me than VICTORIA, winner of the Flora Stakes. It is because SHADOW DIVA, who is beautifully-bred filly, is by HEART’S CRY, who has sent NUOVO RECORD, winner of the Yushun Himba in 2014. Though it is hard to tell which is the better filly, because the margin between them in the G2 Flora Stakes was nose, I decide to select SHADOW DIVA as my second choice and VICTORIA as my third choice.

And among 30 fillies who finished in first three in the last ten runnings of Yushun Himba, 2 of them had won the Listed Wasurenagusa Sho, which is the under card of the G1 Oka Sho over 2,000m at Hanshin, previously. My fourth choice is LOVES ONLY YOU, winner of this year’s Wasurenagusa Sho. The full-sister to REAL STEEL, winner of the G1 Dubai Turf, won the Wasurenagusa Sho by four lengths and she is now unbeaten through three starts.

Another attractive filly in the field is CONTRA CHECK, winner of three races from five starts, including the G3 Flower Stakes. Although the statistics do not suggest she would run well on Sunday, because winners of the G3 Flower Cup have never finished in first two in the Yushun Himba, my intuition tells I should not ignore her.

SELECTIONS: 2. CHRONO GENESIS, 7. SHADOW DIVA, 12. VICTORIA, 13. LOVES ONLY YOU & 3. CONTRA CHECK

S1-7 Tanzawa Stakes

Tanzawa Stakes is the race for 4YO three time winners, and 5YO and upper four time winners. It means the race standard is the same as Freeway Stakes, however, the distance and surface are very different. There was an allowance race at Tokyo on 27th April, which is the same standard, distance and surface as the Tanzawa Stakes, and many of entrants here had competed in their last start. According to this form, OMEGA DELACROIX, who finished second in the aforementioned allowance race, looks to have very good chance here.

OMEGA DELACROIX won an allowance race with lower standard at Nakayama on 23rd March, and the allowance race last start was the first time for him to compete in this class. Despite the competition was stronger than previous start, OMEGA DELACROIX ran bravely and delivered very strong challenge on homestretch to finish second, beaten by the winner by one and three quarters of length. His sire STAY GOLD has produced many late bloomers, such as WIN BRIGHT who won the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup last month, and OMEGA DELACROIX looks to be improving still now, although he is 5YO. And it is another factor for me to select him as my first choice that Damian Lane is booked for him on Sunday.

NANYO PLUTO was beaten two and half lengths by OMEGA DELACROIX and finished third in last start. He has been running well at this class, as he finished fifth in an allowance race at Chukyo on 23rd March and fourth in another allowance race at Tokyo on 16th February. While most of progeny by DEEP IMPACT acts better on turf than dirt, NANYO PLUTO is the exception and he has won all his four races on dirt. And Yutaka Take is booked for him on Sunday and I am confident to select him as my second choice.

There are two more runners, who have already proved that they are competitive at this standard. They are MEISHO EIKO and FLEA FLICKER, both of which have finished in first four in recent three starts. It is not very easy to tell which horse is better, for example, they competed in an allowance race at Kyoto on 10th February, when MEISHO EIKO finished second and FLEA FLICKER finished third, and the margin between them was nose. It looks the running of style of MEISHO EIKO, who is a closer and has strong late kick, is more suitable for the race at Tokyo Racecourse, therefore, MEISHO EIKO is my third choice and FLEA FLICKER is my fourth choice.

Although LA TERRE PROMISE was well beaten in an allowance race at Tokyo on 27th April, it was the first start for him since May 2018, and it was obvious that he needed the race. The 6YO gelding, who has won two races at the dirt course of Tokyo in the past, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 12. OMEGA DELACROIX, 16. NANYO PLUTO, 2. MEISHO EIKO, 5. FLEA FLICKER & 13. LA TERRE PROMISE

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