 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prince of Wales’s Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Queen Mary Stakes
US trainer Wesley Ward has successfully raided the G2 1,000m Queen Mary Stakes three times in the last 10 years and saddles another hot fancy this year in the shape of KIMARI. The daughter of MUNNINGS blew her rivals away by a stunning 15 lengths over 900m at Keeneland on debut in April and that win was enough to convince her trainer to fly her over the Atlantic to Ascot. She’s not been seen since, and a switch from a fairly low-key meeting at Keeneland running on the dirt to taking in the buzz of Royal Ascot and stepping out on the turf is a totally different prospect, but she’s clearly held in high regard and could be another super speedy filly from the Ward yard.
The American also fields ANNA’S FAST, who was another easy winner on debut at Keeneland, drawing clear by four-an-a-half lengths over 900m. Though maybe not quite as emphatic a win as her stablemate produced, jockey Tyler Gaffalione never moved a muscle and both of Ward’s 2YOs have strong claims.
The home challenge is led by FINAL SONG for Saeed bin Suroor and Godolphin. She has the benefit of some Ascot experience having entered the reckoning for this race with an impressive win over course and distance in May. The third from that race has since come out and won convincingly over 1,000m at Bath to give the form a boost and she looks a leading contender.
Godolphin also had CHASING DREAMS earmarked for this race after impressing at Newmarket over 1,000m, but she’s since been ruled out through injury and it’s the third from that race, KEMBLE, who’s now of interest. She followed up that run behind CHASING DREAMS to score by five lengths at Windsor over 1,019m and looks a very precocious filly, but Godolphin also have ICKWORTH and DIVINE SPIRIT.
ICKWORTH kicked off her career with a win on the all-weather at Dundalk before handling soft ground to land a Listed contest at Curragh last time out. Both of those starts came over today’s 1,000m trip and she looks to be a speedy filly that is also versatile in terms of ground.
DIVINE SPIRIT missed her intended debut run at Ascot due to unsuitably soft ground in May, but she made no mistake when getting her preferred conditions 10 days later over 1,019m at Windsor. It was not an overly eye-catching performance, winning by just under two lengths, but she did exactly what she needed to do when asked and looked to win without reaching top gear.
Also on the shortlist on what looks a very strong renewal is GOOD VIBES. Having run keenly on her first two starts, she settled and travelled well in a big field over 1,000m at York before showing an impressive turn of foot to quicken up and stretch away from her rivals. Her trainer, David Evans, immediately mentioned the Queen Mary Stakes after that win last month and suggested she’s the speediest filly he’s ever trained.
SELECTIONS: 9. FINAL SONG, 3. ANNA'S FAST, 16. KIMARI, 7. DIVINE SPIRIT & 12. GOOD VIBES
S1-2 Queen's Vase
Reducing the distance of the Queen’s Vase to 2,831m in 2017 and upgrading it to G2 status immediately attracted the better horses. STRADIVARIUS and KEW GARDENS, the last two winners, went on to capture the G1 Gold Cup and St Leger Stakes respectively, thus confirming that punters must now look for the classier 3YOs.
Aidan O’Brien, who has won four of the last six renweals, runs four in the race headed by WESTERN AUSTRALIA and NORWAY. Both are rated 107, only a pound below the winning mark of KEW GARDENS 12 months ago and have to be on any shortlist. WESTERN AUSTRALIA might be flattered by that figure, which he earned from his career-best performance in last year’s G1 Futurity Trophy over 1,600m at Doncaster. He lined up there principally as a pacemaker, but he hung on to third place behind MAGNA GRECIA and PHOENIX OF SPAIN, the subsequent G1 English and Irish 2000 Guineas heroes. That is undoubtedly the best piece of form in this race, but WESTERN AUSTRALIA’s only win in six races at two came in a 1,400m maiden at Gowran Park. He was a beaten at Dundalk over 1,600m and Newmarket over 1,800m on his first two starts this season but stepping him up in distance looks to have been the key and he was impressive in slamming Listed opponents over 2,600m at Navan last time.
NORWAY, who was also fully exposed at two, is a full brother to Derby winner RULER OF THE WORLD, and, having chased home his stablemate SIR DRAGONET in the G3 Chester Vase over 2,457m, he joined the O’Brien squad for Epsom. He was ridden prominently and made the running for a large part of the race until those earlier exertions took their toll in the last 400m, eventually being eased off into eighth place. This longer trip will suit him and is one to consider.
Godolphin are enjoying an excellent run, and JALMOUD, whose dam won the Oaks, looks to have the gears and stamina to match his pedigree. Charlie Appleby took a leaf out of John Gosden’s book when taking the all-weather route to stardom, starting JALMOUD off over 2,038m at Newcastle last November. Strong in the market, JALMOUD was beaten by his lesser-fancied stablemate MOONLIGHT SPIRIT, but he was very green and it took an age for the penny to drop. William Buick made sure that he learned a bit when he reappeared over 2,000m at Newmarket in April and JALMOUD kept on quickening from the front. He followed up in what proved a slow-quick-slow sprint for home in a Listed affair over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp, leaving the impression that there was better to come.
MOONLIGHT SPIRIT has to be respected. He won two small races this year before being upped into G3 company at ParisLongchamp, but, despite going off favourite the writing was on the wall early on and he trailed third. Maybe it was the travelling, but he is better than that, though with James Doyle riding JALMOUD one assumes that he is the stable’s number one, and best of the rest could be DASHING WILLOUGHBY, who, while held by NORWAY on Chester form, has looked to be crying out for this step up in distance.
SELECTIONS: 6. JALMOUD, 10. NORWAY, 13. WESTERN AUSTRALIA, 3. DASHING WILLOUGHBY & 7. MOONLIGHT SPIRIT
S1-3 Prince of Wales's Stakes
Aidan O’Brien has landed the G1 1,993m Prince Of Wales’s Stakes three times, 2008, 2012 and 2017, and has a huge chance if landing another with the talented MAGICAL. She enhanced her ever-growing reputation when easily landing the G3 Alleged Stakes over 2,000m at Naas beating stablemate FLAG OF HONOUR. That was the first of three consecutive races in which MAGICAL has finished in front of that rival having come home in front in a 2,000m G2 contest at Curragh and the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup over 2,100m. MAGICAL has won at the Berkshire track before, landing the G1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes over 2,392m at the expense of John Gosden duo CORONET and LAH TI DAR , and is a leading contender.
This race has evaded trainer William Haggas but his SEA OF CLASS is expected to be one of those putting it up to O’Brien in the closing stages following some strong efforts. She lacks race fitness having been off the track since October, but that last experience was a brilliant short-neck second behind Gosden’s ENABLE in the G1 2,400m Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, arguably the strongest middle-distance race of the season across Europe. Prior to that she had secured a quadruple of wins at Listed and G1 level, including at York when landing the Yorkshire Oaks over 2,371m, and will go very close if able to pick up where she left off.
WALDGEIST finished fourth in the aforementioned Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe but the first four home were separated by less than two lengths in what was a very bunched finish. He was never able to land a blow when beaten almost 13 lengths back in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf at Churchill Downs, a race in which MAGICAL finished second. A trip to Sha Tin to challenge for the valuable G1 Hong Kong Vase over 2,400m ended in him finishing fifth despite starting a well-fancied favourite, although he was only beaten just over three lengths. He does arrive in winning form having comfortably beaten his rivals to land the G1 Prix Ganay over 2,100m but Andre Fabre’s charge is up against some very strong opposition here and may have to settle for the minor placings.
CRYSTAL OCEAN represents the Sir Michael Stoute stable and arrives on the hunt for a hat-trick of wins following back-to-back victories this season at Sandown and Newbury. He kicked off the campaign with a two length victory in the G3 Gordon Richard Stakes over 1,990m before winning the G3 Aston Park Stakes at Newbury over 2,400m. He has finished second in both tries at G1 level though, most recently in the 1,993m Champion Stakes at Ascot in October where he was beaten six lengths by CRACKSMAN and might just find a couple too good again.
ZABEEL PRINCE won the G1 Prix d’lspahan over 1,850m in May and could prove best of the rest, while globetrotting DEIRDRE has it all to do in a red-hot race.
SELECTIONS: 7. MAGICAL, 8. SEA OF CLASS, 1. CRYSTAL OCEAN, 4. WALDGEIST & 5. ZABEEL PRINCE
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 7. MAGICAL
Selections – 8. SEA OF CLASS, 1. CRYSTAL OCEAN, 4. WALDGEIST & 5. ZABEEL PRINCE
S1-4: Banker – 13. RAWDAA
Selections – 1. I CAN FLY, 11. PREENING, 12. PRETTY BABY & 2. AGROTERA
S1-4 Duke of Cambridge Stakes
Sir Michael Stoute is the one man you want on your side at Royal Ascot, so the fact that he has been waxing lyrical about the chance of RAWDAA in this 1,600m G2 contest for older fillies and mares has made everyone sit up and take notice. Even though this race is relatively new, first run in 2004, Stoute has already been on the winner’s rostrum four times and RAWDAA has the right profile to make it five. She has dramatically improved from the age of three to four and produced by far and away her best performance yet when ruffling the feathers of last year’s G1 St Leger Stakes runner-up LAH TI DAR in the G2 Middleton Stakes over 2,051m at York last month. There is a mixture of speed and stamina in RAWDAA’s pedigree, so dropping back in distance should not be a problem and Frankie Dettori was impressed with the feel he got from the filly when he sat on her for the first time on the Newmarket gallops last Saturday.
RAWDAA, ridden by Ryan Moore in the filly’s last three races, will be without her regular jockey as Moore rides I CAN FLY for Coolmore. She palpably failed to stay in last year’s Oaks, but dropped back in trip she produced a personal best when chasing home Europe’s 1,600m champion ROARING LION in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot last October. However, though this season she ran creditably in the G1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury, it was disappointing that I CAN FLY, who also flopped at the G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile, was subsequently beaten on merit at levels by BESHAAYIR in a G2 at Curragh last month.
PRETTY BABY has proved herself a very good filly, her record of five wins and two seconds in seven races speaking for itself. She stepped up to 1,400m when trying G3 company for the first time in the Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood last August, and, having passed that test, she carried on where she left off on her seasonal return at Lingfield over 1,400m. Now she climbs another grade and 1,600m for the first time, but William Haggas is optimistic she will stay if ridden more patiently.
AGROTERA beat PREENING and RAWDAA on the all-weather over 1,600m but may struggle to confirm that form on turf, especially as she is highly-strung and was accompanied by a pony in the paddock at Kempton, casting doubts about how she will handle the preliminaries.
PREENING, who was given too much to do at Kempton, is well worth including in the mix. She is a typical improver of Cheveley Park, owner-breeders who have won this race four times.
ANNA NERIUM is a real favourite of Richard Hannon’s as she tries her heart out. She seems to excel on undulating tracks with her best performances coming at Epsom and Goodwood, so that raises the question whether she will be as effective on this straight course.
SELECTIONS: 13. RAWDAA, 1. I CAN FLY, 11. PREENING, 12. PRETTY BABY & 2. AGROTERA
S1-5 Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap)
Last year’s 1,600m Royal Hunt Cup winner SETTLE FOR BAY bids to repeat that success. He has a stiffer task this time around, but he won in great style that day after being held up, with AFAAK, CIRCUS COUTURE and WHAT’S THE STORY second, third and fourth. There was plenty of encouragement to be taken from his eye-catching fourth in a Listed race at Leopardstown over 1,600m earlier this month, but the last horse to win the Royal Hunt Cup twice was MASTER VOTE in 1947 and 1948. AFAAK ran well afterwards without winning, but he has not raced since September. CIRCUS COUTURE and WHAT’S THE STORY both won handicaps on their most recent appearances, at Nottingham over 1,668m and at York over 1,575m respectively.
NEW GRADUATE has been very heavily backed and it’s easy to see why. His very easy win at Ripon over 1,600m has worked out exceptionally well, with the second, third and fourth all good winners since, and as that was only his fourth racecourse appearance there is every likelihood that he still has more improvement in him.
ROBIN OF NAVAN was a high-class 2YO in 2015, when on his final start he was successful in a G1 at Saint Cloud (2,000m, very soft), when he beat CLOTH OF STARS, who was placed twice behind ENABLE in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. He has been campaigned on the international stage for most of his career, and although he is not quite so good nowadays he shaped very well last time, considering he was unlucky in running, behind BREDEN in his first handicap at Newbury over 1,600m and runs here on the recommendation of Ryan Moore, who rode him that day. From barrier 15, his rider will have choices if any track bias appears over the first couple of days.
PETRUS, who won over 1,600m at Doncaster first time out this year, was a close fourth in that Newbury race and, although he has more to do than at Doncaster, these big-field handicaps bring out the best in him.
RAISING SAND is an Ascot specialist and is another who is particularly effective in these big fields over the straight course, as he confirmed when beating RIPP ORF in a valuable handicap over 1,400m last October. He finished seventh behind SETTLE FOR BAY in this race last year, but ran better than his finishing position suggests, since he finished strongly after a slow start and was second of 10 in his group, which had split from the main bunch.
KYNREN has been second in two of the most competitive straight course handicaps run so far this year, to AUXERRE at Doncaster over 1,600m when BERINGER and BREDEN dead heated for third, and to CAPE BYRON in the Victoria Cup here at Ascot over 1,400m. BERINGER won at Newmarket over 1,600m shortly afterwards and BREDEN won at Newbury over 1,600m last time.
SENIORITY is owned by her majesty The Queen and shaped as if he would improve for the race when second in a handicap at Epsom in May over 1,703m, having been off the track since racing twice at Meydan in January.
SELECTIONS: 6. ROBIN OF NAVAN, 14. RAISING SAND, 8. SETTLE FOR BAY, 9. NEW GRADUATE & 19. KYNREN
S1-6 Windsor Castle Stakes
The Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 1,000m is the race in which American trainer Wesley Ward first struck at Royal Ascot, winning with STRIKE THE TIGER in 2009. He won the race again in 2014 with HOOTENANNY and will be strongly represented once again with the fillies FOOLISH HUMOR and KARAK. Both of them were comfortable winners over 1,000m at Belmont Park on their debuts and they are potentially smart, but while fillies won this race five times in a row between 1996 and 2000, they have managed just two placings in the last 10 runnings.
Aidan O’Brien had KING NEPTUNE entered here but relies instead upon SOUTHERN HILLS, who is still a maiden and has been beaten at Curragh over 1,200m and Navan over 1,000m. SOUTHERN HILLS showed plenty of speed over the shorter distance at Navan however and was caught only in the last strides, the first two pulling a long way clear.
RED EPAULETTE, a Naas winner over 1,000m and second to the smart O’Brien colt PISTOLETTO when returning there last time over 1,000m is another strong Irish-trained challenger.
Richard Fahey’s SUMMER SANDS was only third in the York race won by BOMB PROOF, who misses this race following a setback, but he looked much improved when landing a decent race at Beverley next time. His stable companion SHOW ME SHOW ME, has been beaten twice since winning on his debut over 1,003m at Doncaster in March, while DYLAN DE VEGA, another Fahey runner, did not look entirely straightforward when winning an auction race at Beverley over 1,000m.
TEMPLE OF HEAVEN has won both of his starts for Richard Hannon and is highly regarded. The second of them was over 1,200m at Newbury, but Hannon believes he has the speed to drop back to 1,000m so should have no problems with this minimum trip.
Mark Johnston’s IFFRAAZ made a smooth winning debut on heavy ground at Carlisle over 1,000m, which is also where Karl Burke’s RAYONG won on much quicker going first time out. It was a promising start from both colts, but the bare form leaves them needing plenty of improvement.
SYMBOLIZE is another who has won his only start, and his smooth Salisbury defeat of AROHA over 1,000m on fast ground represented a very promising start from the STARSPANGLEDBANNER colt.
Archie Watson enjoyed his first Royal Ascot success in this race last year with SOLDIER’S CALL and is having a fantastic year with his 2YOs, with more than 20 winners already. His BETTER THE DEVIL makes a quick reappearance after making an impressive debut over 1,006m last week at Hamilton.
Watson has three more candidates in ILLUSIONIST, who was a much improved eight-length winner at Bath over 1,009m when fitted with blinkers for the first time, TAXIWALA, who won by five lengths at Brighton over 1,055m and ELECTRIC LADYLAND, who won her first two races and finished fourth to FLIPPA THE STRIPPA in a Listed 1,009m contest at Sandown on her most recent outing.
SELECTIONS: 18. TEMPLE OF HEAVEN, 14. SOUTHERN HILLS, 12. RED EPAULETTE, 15. SUMMER SANDS & 7. ILLUSIONIST
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