 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Gold Cup Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Norfolk Stakes
The 1,000m G2 Norfolk Stakes is another contest at Royal Ascot that’s captured the interest of American trainer Wesley Ward. His sprinters are always feared over the five days and MAVEN has to be respected with Ward targeting a third win in this event. The son of US Triple Crown winner AMERICAN PHAROAH was made to work for his win over 900m by runner-up LEBDA, but it’s worth noting that those two finished a long way clear of the rest.
He may not be the main overseas challenge, though, with Irish raider SUNDAY SOVEREIGN likely to be a hot favourite after impressive wins at Curragh over 1,200m and Tipperary over 1,000m. The son of EQUIANO built on his Curragh win to score by seven lengths on his latest start over this trip and his trainer, Paddy Twomey, immediately pencilled in this contest. He rates as one of the leading contenders.
The challenge from Ireland is strengthened by AIR FORCE JET, trained by Joseph O’Brien. Having been passed in the final 200m on his most recent start over 1,000m at Navan, the son of CHARM SPIRIT showed a good attitude to fight back and get up to beat SOUTHERN HILLS on the line. He’s speedily bred and looks versatile in terms of ground too.
EXPRESSIONIST produced a fine effort to win on his debut and gets onto the shortlist. He picked up nicely to stretch away over track and trip and that Ascot experience should stand him in good stead for this.
Another with form at the track is VENTURA REBEL. He was a bit of a surprise winner of a Class 2 contest over 1,000m at the start of last month, lowering the colours of highly-fancied American raider LADY PAULINE, and that performance puts him right in contention here. It’s also worth noting that trainer Richard Fahey has his horses in fine forming heading into this year’s meeting.
Looking to buck the trend that’s seen eight of the last ten winners come into the race off the back of a victory, A'ALI, second over 1,000m at Ripon last time out, lines up for Simon Crisford. He looked to be travelling by far the strongest for most of the race but showed some inexperience when headed by SPARTAN FIGHTER in the closing stages. With Frankie Dettori booked for the ride, a big run is expected and he’s likely to improve for that debut.
Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore, who have teamed up to win this race in two of the past four renewals, are represented by MOUNT FUJI. He has to be respected given those connections, he didn’t set the world alight win winning a modest maiden at Cork on debut and more is needed here.
SELECTIONS: 13. SUNDAY SOVEREIGN, 5. EXPRESSIONIST, 8. MAVEN, 1. A'ALI & 14. VENTURA REBEL
S2-2 Hampton Court Stakes
The G3 1,993m Hampton Court Stakes looks a really competitive middle-distance heat for horses who have not quite managed to make it to the very top in their 3YO campaign.
CAPE OF GOOD HOPE, who won the 2,015m Listed contest at Epsom, ran a cracker in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club over 2,100m at Chantilly last time out and represents the all-powerful Aidan O’Brien team. That looks to be one of the strongest pieces of form on offer and he rates as a leading contender.
Not as proven but potentially very talented is FOX CHAIRMAN. The son of Royal Ascot winner KINGMAN comes into the race after over a month of the track and this race will have been the plan for some time. A slow break from the gates put paid to his chances in the Listed Dee Stakes over 2,064m at Chester last time out, and he did make some eye-catching late headway to finish third. More is expected here.
SANGARIUS, also a son of KINGMAN, represents Royal Ascot’s winning-most trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, and the meeting’s current most successful jockey in Frankie Dettori. He’s stepping up in trip to 1,993m for the first time having finished third over 1,600m at Sandown on his only start of the campaign so far. He hung badly right-handed, failed to quicken and looked in need of the run that day. Connections will be expecting an improved performance here, particularly given the strength of his 2YO form. He finished close behind Derby winner ANTHONY VAN DYCK and champion juvenile TOO DARN HOT last season and is clearly very talented.
ROSEMAN finished a length ahead of SANGARIUS in the 1,600m Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown and is also stepping up to 1,993m for the first time. Having already run twice this season before that Sandown contest, ROSEMAN had a fitness edge on SANGARIUS and could find things tougher this time around.
CAP FRANCAIS hasn’t been seen since finishing fourth in the Listed 2,321m Derby Trial Stakes at Lingfield. Before that, he ran well to finish second to CAPE OF GOOD HOPE over 2,051m at Epsom and should appreciate the step back down in trip.
The 2,457m distance in the G3 Chester Vase Stakes proved too much of a stamina test for KING OTTOKAR and he could bounce back to form here. His best effort came over this trip, running away with a Class 3 prize at Newbury and putting plenty of daylight between his rivals, including HEADMAN back in sixth that day, although he won a decent 2,000m handicap at Newbury last time.
SELECTIONS: 6. FOX CHAIRMAN, 15. SANGARIUS, 3. CAPE OF GOOD HOPE, 12. KING OTTOKAR & 10. HEADMAN
S2-3 Ribblesdale Stakes
Having taken Oaks runner-up PINK DOGWOOD out of the 2,392m G2 Ribblesdale Stakes, it looked as if trainer Aidan O’Brien would struggle to win a race he has landed in three of the last five years. However, he has supplemented FLEETING for this year’s renewal and based on her third place finish in the aforementioned Oaks, the daughter of ZOFFANY must have a strong chance of improving her trainer’s impressive recent record in the race. She was a good winner of the 1,600m G2 May Hill Stakes on her last start as a 2YO, but given she was soundly beaten over the same distance in the G1 1000 Guineas Stakes and ran so well in the Oaks, this 2,392m trip looks much more to her liking. Given the decision to supplement her, she has to be respected.
Like O’Brien, Sir Michael Stoute has won the race three times, most recently in 2003. He saddles QUEEN POWER this time around, who is having just the third run of her life and her second for Stoute after moving from Ralph Beckett’s yard. She was well-fancied on her seasonal reappearance over 1,594m at Ascot, where she just failed to reel-in MUCHLY, though she made up for that when winning the Listed Fillies’ Trial Stakes at Newbury over 2,000m on her most recent start. QUEEN POWER was doing all of her best work at the end that day and looks well worth a go over this extra 400m.
Both FRANKELLINA and STAR CATCHER are owned by Anthony Oppenheimer, with the former preferred. The daughter of FRANKEL ran just once as a 2YO, a victory in a fillies’ novice at Yarmouth over 1,603m, but has run in much better races this season. She dead-heated for second in the G3 Musidora Stakes at York over 2,051m, where she was beaten by just a neck and then was a good sixth in the G1 Oaks Stakes the next time. There was only a 16 day gap between those two races and she was up against some more experienced rivals at Epsom, so improvement is expected here.
STAR CATCHER was third to QUEEN POWER in the previously mentioned Listed race at Newbury. The well-bred daughter of SEA THE STARS was an impressive winner of a 2,000m maiden at the same course on her first start of the season and lost little in defeat the next time. She battled back at the end in that Listed contest, so should relish the extra distance here.
STAR CATCHER is one of a number in the race for trainer John Gosden, with SHAMBOLIC, FANNY LOGAN and SPARKLE ROLL all set to go to join her. SHAMBOLIC looks the most likely contender given the company she has been running in. Wins at Newmarket over 1,400m and Ascot over 1,594m saw her run in the 1,600m G1 Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket, where she finished a respectable fourth. She finished down the field in G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud over 2,000m, but seconds in Listed contests over the same distance at Newmarket and Goodwood this season mean she must come into consideration here. She can complete the placings, with both FANNY LOGAN and SPARKLE ROLL needing to bounce back from below-par performances at Chester and York last time.
SELECTIONS: 8. QUEEN POWER, 3. FLEETING, 4. FRANKELLINA, 11. STAR CATCHER & 9. SHAMBOLIC
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3: Banker – 8. QUEEN POWER
Selections – 3. FLEETING, 4. FRANKELLINA, 11. STAR CATCHER & 9. SHAMBOLIC
S2-4: Banker – 8. DEE EX BEE
Selections – 4. STRADIVARIUS, 6. CROSS COUNTER, 1. CALLED TO THE BAR & 9. FLAG OF HONOUR
S2-4 Gold Cup
One of the highlights of the entire meeting is the 3,991m G1 Gold Cup. Last year’s winner STRADIVARIUS is bidding to become the first horse since YEATS in 2009 to win the race back-to-back and, having won his last six races, it’s not hard to see why he’s well-fancied to win it again. Since his victory in the 2,831m G2 Queen’s Vase in 2017, the son of SEA THE STARS was always thought of as an ideal type for this race. He won the G2 Yorkshire Cup over 2,771m last season and hasn’t looked back since, with no horse able to match him over staying trips. He began this season with a workmanlike performance in the Yorkshire Cup over a trip short of his optimum and that should have put him spot on for this.
CROSS COUNTER gave Charlie Appleby one of his best days as a trainer when he won the 3,200m G1 Melbourne Cup last season and he looks sure to go well. The 4YO seemed to thrive when stepped up in trip having largely been campaigned over 2,400m prior to that. He was a good winner of the 3,200m G2 Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan on his first start of the season and should give STRADIVARIUS plenty to think about, providing his stamina holds out over this extended trip.
When DEE EX BEE finished second in last year’s Derby, not many would have thought the son of FARHH would have been running in the 2019 Gold Cup. Mark Johnston’s runner didn’t show much after that, but he has been a different horse this season having been stepped up to 3,200m, with good victories in the G3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot and in the G3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown. The extra 800m is an unknown, but he looks like he has the stamina for it and should go well for a trainer seeking a first win in the race.
Aidan O’Brien has won the race a record seven times and is set to be represented by FLAG OF HONOUR, CAPRI and CYPRESS CREEK. FLAG OF HONOUR has finished second to the high-class MAGICAL in all three starts over 2,000m to 2,100m this season and ran well in the 3,190m G2 British Champions Long Distance Cup last season. While he’s looked a bit out of depth in G1 company over middle distances, where he has largely been used as a pacemaker, he’s an interesting contender stepped back up in trip and could challenge for the places.
O’Brien’s other two runners look up against it, with a slight preference for CAPRI, who won the G1 St Leger Stakes as a 3YO and steps up to 3,991m for the first time.
The ultra-consistent CALLED TO THE BAR represents French trainer Pia Brandt and lines up with strong place claims. He’s only finished outside of the first three in one of his fourteen career starts and was a runner up of the G1 Prix Royal-Oak over 3,000m on good-to-soft at Chantilly in October. The 5YO is versatile in terms of ground too, having finished second in the 2017 G1 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes over 2,000m.
SELECTIONS: 8. DEE EX BEE, 4. STRADIVARIUS, 6. CROSS COUNTER, 1. CALLED TO THE BAR & 9. FLAG OF HONOUR
S2-5 Britannia Stakes (Handicap)
The 1,600m Britannia Stakes is one of the most difficult handicaps of the year, as it is contested by a maximum field of 30 3YO colts and geldings, most of whom are either dropped in class after trying Group races, or else lightly raced and still on the way up.
DARK VISION finished down the field in the G1 2000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket over 1,600m, but he was a G2 winner at Goodwood over 1,400m last year from DUNKERRON and was a solid fourth behind KING OF COMEDY in a strongly-contested Listed race at Sandown over 1,600m. Jamie Spencer, who has won this race twice in the last three years, is an eye-catching booking.
MOTAFAAWIT is an improving handicapper and has won at Beverley over 1,487m and here at Ascot over 1,400m, where he beat AWE narrowly. His stablemate BEAT LE BON is another who is still on the upgrade, and he had DUBAI LEGACY, FANAAR and DUNKERRON (apprentice ridden and no daylight at a crucial stage) behind when a clear-cut handicap winner over 1,400m at Goodwood, where he shaped as if this longer distance would not be a problem.
AWE was unlucky in running at Haydock over 1,634m after being beaten by MOTAFAAWIT at Ascot and has since won a valuable handicap at Newmarket, despite finding 1,400m on the sharp side. Strictly speaking MOTAFAAWIT should have the better of it again at these weights, but AWE is improving too.
Godolphin’s VELORUM started off with a very good second to the smart SKARDU at Newmarket last year over 1,400m and he has won both of his races this year, at Newmarket again over 1,600m and Yarmouth over 1,603m. His handicap mark could well underestimate him.
BIOMETRIC, a winner at 1,394m and 1,400m, and DAVYDENKO, successful at 1,628m and 1,598m, have a similar profile to VELORUM, as both are well bred colts from top stables who are making their handicap debuts and have the potential for further improvement.
KING ADEMAR has more solid form and is definitely one to consider, as his two second places over 1,668m at Nottingham so far this year have both worked out extremely well. The first of them was won by subsequent G1 2000 Guineas Stakes second KING OF CHANGE, and the second by OUZO, who has won again since. He is arguably the form choice already, and first-time cheekpieces may add an extra edge.
John Gosden has a good record in this race and saddles TURGENEV, who is the mount of Frankie Dettori and takes a big drop in class after taking on TELECASTER and TOO DARN HOT in the G2 Dante Stakes over 2,051m. He also runs BEATBOXER, who will be suited by the fast pace after coming from a difficult position to win a valuable 1,634m handicap at Haydock.
Irish-trained runners have won the Britannia twice in the last six years. Aidan O’Brien saddles DUNKIRK HARBOUR, fourth to HAZAPOUR in a G3 at Leopardstown last time over 1,600m, and his son Joseph is represented by NUMERIAN, whose six races so far, including wins over 1,600m and 1,400m, have all been on the all-weather at Dundalk and so are harder to equate with turf form.
ECLIPSE STORM, second in Listed company over 1,400m at Curragh, is a third Irish representative.
SELECTIONS: 21. KING ADEMAR, 17. VELORUM, 5. BEAT LE BON, 23. BIOMETRIC & 20. AWE
S2-6 King George V Stakes (Handicap)
This is a poor race for favourites, but likely market leader CONSTANTINOPLE showed he’s a classy horse when winning the G3 Gallinule Stakes over 2,000m at Curragh last time. That performance has earned him top weight, and it is 18 years since a horse has defied that burden. However, Aidan O’Brien has no respect for statistics. O’Brien has never won this race but is four-handed this time. SOUTH PACIFIC cost one million Euros as a yearling but has only won a maiden at Naas over 2,000m. He went back to Naas and finished second, one place ahead of stablemate EMINENCE, but both look short of what is required. ANTILLES also looks to have plenty on his plate. He was a well-beaten fourth behind CONSTANTINOPLE at Curragh and has not improved since last year.
Mark Johnston has won this race six times and SIR RON PRIESTLEY is on a hat-trick. He is a relentless galloper and runs in this handicap rather than the G2. The handicapper has raised SIR RON PRIESTLEY in the weights since his easy win at Haydock over 2,395m, but the trainer feels that he has the potential to go higher.
Johnston also runs PERSIAN MOON and SUMMER MOON. PERSIAN MOON had his limitations exposed at Goodwood over 2,240m and might not stay this trip. SUMMER MOON won at Windsor over 2,290m and York over 2,371m. He was then disappointing when favourite at Doncaster over 2,905m and needs to bounce back.
FOX PREMIER has also won his last two races. He improved from Chelmsford to Sandown and his stable continues in cracking form.
SINJAARI was an unlucky loser at Newbury over 2,000m last time. He was repeatedly checked up the straight and would have won with a clear run. He is a big improver. His Redcar second to PRIVATE SECRETARY over 2,001m is solid form and then he broke his maiden in style at Windsor over 2,000m. This extra distance will suit him.
Godolphin have won this race three times in the last five years, but GREAT EXAMPLE does not come with as strong credentials as their previous winners. He did win well at Ripon over 1,955m and will appreciate this extra distance, but he will need to improve to be a player.
John Gosden won this race twice in the 90’s and QUESTIONARE is weighted to take his Yarmouth revenge over 2,295m on BABBO’S BOY. QUESTIONARE was second again at Leicester over 2,363m next time, but he was giving weight to the winner and his trainer thinks he is a potential G3 horse. However, BABBO’S BOY has won again since Yarmouth. He made all the running at Leicester over 2,400m, though the time was slower than the selling race.
ALMANIA, an expensive yearling, won at Sandown over 1,400m as a 2YO. He was sunk without trace in the G2 Dante Stakes which is a Derby trial.
SELECTIONS: 6. SINJAARI, 12. SIR RON PRIESTLEY, 1. CONSTANTINOPLE, 11. QUESTIONARE & 7. FOX PREMIER
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