 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Diamond Jubilee Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Chesham Stakes
Aidan O’Brien has won the Listed 1,400m Chesham Stakes a joint-record four times, and in two of the past three years. Given the likes of multiple G1 winner CHURCHILL have won it for the Ballydoyle handler, he tends to target it with his better juveniles and based on his impressive win on debut, LOPE Y FERNANDEZ could be another. The son of LOPE DE VEGA was sent off favourite for a Curragh maiden over 1,400m and he repaid his supporters with a dominant three and three quarters length victory. He’s bound to come on from that and is going to be hard to beat.
Having run twice, PINATUBO has more experience than a number of his rivals. Like LOPE Y FERNANDEZ, he’s unbeaten with victories at Wolverhampton and Epsom in the Woodcote Stakes. The form of his debut win at Wolverhampton has worked out well, with the second and third winning subsequently, while his breeding suggests this extra 200m should suit him well too. He looks to have plenty of ability and could give O’Brien’s runner plenty to think about.
Since his win in a 1,400m maiden at Leopardstown, MOHICAN HEIGHTS has moved to the Great Britain to be trained by David Simcock. Considering the immaturity he showed that day, he was impressive in victory, going away at the finish and there is undoubtedly more improvement to come. He’s bred to get further than this 1,400m trip, so connections shouldn’t have any concerns if the ground gets testing.
Richard Hannon Sr. won the race back-to-back in 2008 and 2009 and his son Richard Jnr. will be hoping SUN POWER can make it three. From the first crop of NIGHT OF THUNDER, the colt was a beaten favourite at York on his debut over 1,000m, before stepping up to win a 1,218m novice race at Wolverhampton on the all-weather. This race is a big step up from that, but given connections are pitching him in, he’s clearly well-regarded.
O’Brien also saddles HARPOCRATES who has finished second and third to the well-regarded SISKIN on his two career starts so far. His most recent run was in the 1,200m Listed Marble Hill Stakes, so he clearly has ability and is yet another who you can expect improvement from.
Though he is the winning-most trainer at Royal Ascot, the Chesham Stakes is one race that has deserted Sir Michael Stoute. He is responsible for HEAVEN FORFEND who comes into this after an encouraging debut at Newbury over 1,200m. The 2YO ran against some more experienced rivals that day, but was still only beaten by one and can be expected to improve for the outing.
The progeny of GLENEAGLES was successful for the first time at Royal Ascot when SOUTHERN HILLS won Wednesday’s Listed Windsor Castle Stakes and another of his, HIGHLAND CHIEF, looked promising on his debut win at Newbury. Though relatively unfancied for the 1,031m contest, the colt showed a good attitude to get his head in front and looks sure to improve for this extra distance.
SELECTIONS: 12. PINATUBO, 9. LOPE Y FERNANDEZ, 6. HEAVEN FORFEND, 13. SUN POWER & 7. HIGHLAND CHIEF
S2-2 Jersey Stakes
It doesn’t look to be one of the strongest renewals of the 1,400m G3 Jersey Stakes, normally a race for the 3YO colts and fillies who have failed to shine over 1,600m.
Once considered a prospect for the 2,405m G1 Derby Stakes, SPACE BLUES has shown he’s a far better horse over shorter trips and has performed really well over 1,400m. Both of his starts this season have come at the distance, comfortably winning a Class 3 at York by two lengths before stepping up to Listed company at Epsom, beating URBAN ICON by a neck. This represents another step up in class but he’s in great form and looks to have a leading chance.
URBAN ICON has to make the shortlist too based on that most recent run at Epsom. Before that he finished third in a hot renewal of the G3 Greenham Stakes over 1,400m at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance. With some of the strongest form in the field and a nice run last time out, he has an obvious chance of being in the first three.
Aidan O’Brien seems to have a horse for almost every contest at Royal Ascot and SO PERFECT is another interesting contender for the yard. In receipt of a fillies’ weight allowance, as she will be today, she landed a G3 contest over 1,200m at Navan in commanding fashion last time out and warrants plenty of respect. The step up to 1,400m should suit this daughter of SCAT DADDY and everything looks set for a big run with Ryan Moore in the saddle.
O’Brien also fields FIRE FLY, who is yet to show a great deal and is probably best watched until stepped up in trip later down the line.
Of the others, HAPPY POWER represents the in-form Andrew Balding stable with champion jockey Silvestre de Sousa in the saddle. The son of DARK ANGEL has had two wins this season, including last time out when winning the Listed Ganton Stakes fairly comfortably. He holds an entry in the G1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood later in the season and is clearly held in high regard by his trainer.
Things were not looking ideal for ANGEL’S HIDEAWAY earlier in the week when heavy showers hit the track, but forecasts suggest there is more sun than rain before Saturday and that should help produce her favoured good ground. She was last seen when finishing fourth behind SPACE BLUES and URBAN ICON at Epsom which, based on her fourth in the G1 1,000 Guineas Stakes, has to go down as a below-par performance. The ground was perhaps slower than ideal that day, blunting her speed, and she has every chance of making amends for that run on better ground.
MOMKIN was back in tenth in the G1 2000 Guineas Stakes and hasn’t seen a racetrack since. He could sneak into the prize money but it’s hard to know how much he’s progressed since that race at the start of May.
SELECTIONS:13. SPACE BLUES, 12. SO PERFECT, 15. URBAN ICON, 5. HAPPY POWER & 17. ANGEL’S HIDEAWAY
S2-3 Hardwicke Stakes
The difference between G1 and G2 company can be few and far between, and that certainly looks to be the case with the G2 Hardwicke Stakes, run over 2,392m. Making sure this a high-class renewal of the race are G1 winners MASAR and DEFOE.
Possibly Godolphin’s most-cherished winner to date thanks to his victory in last season’s G1 2,405m Derby Stakes at Epsom, MASAR is the horse that everyone is waiting to see. He won the Derby but was not seen for the rest of the summer and has been kept off the track since. That long lay-off has to be a concern, but the fact remains that he’s a Classic-winning G1 horse in a G2 and will be hard to beat if 100 per cent fit.
At the sixth time of asking, DEFOE finally added a G1 to his CV when landing the Coronation Cup over 2,405m at Epsom. That was a slight surprise, but it may just be that he has taken some time to fully realise his potential. He looks versatile in terms of ground too.
Sir Michael Stoute rarely rushes his horses and his 5YO MIRAGE DANCER could be still improving. He had a good time of it last season, landing two races and running a good second to BEST SOLUTION in a G2 at Newmarket over 2,400m. Stoute took him overseas for the G1 2,400m Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin in December, but he failed to overcome a wide draw and never got into the race. Given the circumstances, a line can be put through that particular piece of form and he made a promising reappearance in a 2,398m Listed race at Goodwood last month. That run will have put him in good shape for this, though he will need a career best to beat off the proven G1 performers.
Of the others, SOUTHERN FRANCE and LAH TI DAR have strong claims of finishing in the first five. SOUTHERN FRANCE chased home classy stayer STRADIVARIUS in the 2,771m G2 Yorkshire Cup at York just over a month ago and now steps back down in trip. He is relatively lightly raced and unexposed at the trip, so has to make the shortlist. Similarly, LAH TI DAR showed her stamina when running a massive race to finish second over 2,905m in last year’s G1 St Leger Stakes at Doncaster. She has since come back down in trip to win the G2 Middleton Stakes over 2,051m and receives a handy fillies’ weight allowance.
SALOUEN has become something of a fans’ favourite, hailing from one of the smaller yards in the Great Britain and always running bravely. He’ll likely put up another strong effort, and on recent form there’s no reason he can’t take some of the prize money too. Sylvester Kirk’s popular runner was third behind DEFOE in the G1 Coronation Cup, sixth in a very strong renewal of the 2,400m G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and will always be remembered for running CRACKSMAN close in the 2018 Coronation Cup.
SELECTIONS:3. MASAR, 8. SOUTHERN FRANCE, 4. MIRAGE DANCER, 9. LAH TI DAR & 2. DEFOE
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3: Banker – 3. MASAR
Selections – 8. SOUTHERN FRANCE, 4. MIRAGE DANCER, 9. LAH TI DAR & 2. DEFOE
S2-4: Banker – 1. BLUE POINT
Selections – 14. SANDS OF MALI, 3. CITY LIGHT, 8. INVINCIBLE ARMY & 16. THE TIN MAN
S2-4 Diamond Jubilee Stakes
The G1 1,200m Diamond Jubilee Stakes is a mouth-watering contest this year, not least because Tuesday’s G1 King’s Stand Stakes over 1,000m winner will be trying to pull off a historic double. Not since Australian sprinter CHOISIR in 2003 has a horse won both races in the same week, but BLUE POINT impressed trainer Charlie Appleby enough to earn a place in the race. The decision to run BLUE POINT has to be a brave one, and not just given the short amount of recovery time.
This year’s renewal of the Diamond Jubilee Stakes looks very strong, with INVINCIBLE ARMY, the likely favourite, British Champions Sprint (1,200m) winner SANDS OF MALI, last year’s runner-up CITY LIGHT and 2017 winner THE TIN MAN all set to run.
INVINCIBLE ARMY produced a scintillating display in the G2 Duke of York Stakes over 1,200m at York last time out. He looks a much-improved horse to last season, given he could only finish ninth at this meeting in the G1 1,200m Commonwealth Cup, but rates as one of the main dangers this year.
BLUE POINT is undoubtedly the most proven G1 performer in the race, having been won at the top level in all four of his seasons to date. He has won five times over 1,200m, so to have performed so well to take the 1,000m King’s Stand Stakes on Tuesday is impressive. Though disappointing when last of nine over this distance in the G1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize at Sha Tin, it’s often forgivable for a horse to run below-par when travelling overseas. Apart from the short gap between races, the other concern is that Ascot is a stiff 1,200m and he could find his stamina reserves wearing out in the final 100m.
CITY OF LIGHT, second in this race last year, has some solid form in the book and hasn’t finished outside of the first two on his last three starts over 1,200m. He was most recently a runner-up behind the high-class INNS OF COURT in a 1,200m Listed race at Maisons-Laffitte in France. That was his first run back since October and he should be a little bit sharper as a result.
SANDS OF MALI caused a bit of a shock when winning the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes over track and trip last October, but he also was an excellent second in the Commonwealth Cup over 1,200m last year. He finished a respectable sixth in the G1 1,200m Al Quoz Sprint, won by BLUE POINT in March, but then disappointed when only third in a 1,200m Class 2 contest at Hamilton two weeks ago. I’m sure that was a prep run for this, though, and he clearly loves it at Ascot so he could bounce back at his favourite track.
7YO THE TIN MAN could go close if rediscovering the form of old, though he looks like one for the placings rather than win purposes nowadays.
Wesley Ward, who is always to be feared with his sprinters at Ascot, fields BOUND FOR NOWHERE. He was third in last year’s contest and may be able to muscle in on the places if repeating that effort.
SELECTIONS: 1. BLUE POINT, 14. SANDS OF MALI, 3. CITY LIGHT, 8. INVINCIBLE ARMY & 16. THE TIN MAN
S2-5 Wokingham Stakes (Handicap)
BACCHUS won this race last year and bids to become the first horse to win it back-to-back in more than 20 years after running well in a G3 next time (1,200m) but finishing well beaten twice at G1 level afterwards (1,300m and 1,200m). He has not raced so far this season, but was racing for the first time 12 months ago.
SPRING LOADED has a good record in these races and was an impressive winner of another valuable handicap here last July over 1,000m. He is on a stiffer mark than 12 months ago, but trainer Paul D’Arcy has booked a very capable claiming jockey to reduce the burden.
CAPE BYRON has a good record on the Ascot straight course, winning the valuable Victoria Cup over 1,400m here last month. His trainer Roger Varian believes he will be even more effective over this 1,200m and has made an entry in the G1 July Cup in expectation of a big effort.
HEY JONESY usually races in Group and Listed company and has only previously run in one handicap. His close fifth to EQTIDAAR here last year in the G1 Commonwealth Cup over 1,200m and last month’s fifth to the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes favourite INVINCIBLE ARMY in the G2 Duke of York Stakes over 1,200m were good efforts in the context of this race.
Frankie Dettori has been booked for DANZENO, who runs in this race for the third time. DANZENO was a six-length winner over 1,007m at Nottingham and remains well treated under a penalty. That was his first race in 10 months, and trainer Michael Appleby has resisted the temptation to run him again since.
GUNMETAL made all in the valuable handicap at Ripon last summer over 1,200m and has shaped well on both starts this term, most recently flashing home too late over an inadequate 1,000m at York.
GIFTED MASTER overcame a big weight to win the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood last year over 1,200m, when FOXTROT LADY was sixth, but he has not been in anything like the same form since. His stable has had a quiet first half to the year. This is FOXTROT LADY’s first opportunity to run in handicap company since then, she ran well in a Listed race at Windsor last time over 1,211m.
David O’Meara won this two years ago with OUT DO and runs four this time. The pick of them might be INTISAAB, who has slipped to an attractive mark and shaped as if running into form when fifth to SOLDIER’S MINUTE at York over 1,200m, where he was going on well at the finish after a slow start. Jamie Spencer, so expert in big-field handicaps on the straight here, is a very positive booking.
Stablemate SUMMERGHAND is high in the handicap after five wins last year, but his two seconds over 1,200m at Newmarket this year confirm he can still be competitive. Ryan Moore’s mount CENOTAPH will be a final runner for Jeremy Noseda, who recently announced his retirement after enjoying outstanding success on an international level. Noseda landed a huge gamble with LADDIES POKER TWO in this race nine years ago, and the more the ground dries out the better.
SELECTIONS: 13. INTISAAB, 7. SPRING LOADED, 3. CAPE BYRON, 16. DANZENO & 11. GUNMETAL
S2-6 Queen Alexandra Stakes
The longest race in the entire Flat racing calendar. Last year’s winner PALLASATOR returns in a bid to provide Grand National-winning trainer Gordon Elliott a third win in the race in the past four years, but he was well beaten on his only subsequent start in 2018 and was well beaten again on his only start this year (both races over 2,800m). He has never been straightforward, and although he could not be in better hands, it is asking a lot to expect him to win again as a 10YO after two such poor efforts since Royal Ascot last year.
Willie Mullins, Elliott’s great rival over jumps, has also won this twice, and he saddles a more solid candidate in MAX DYNAMITE, who has been placed twice in the G1 Melbourne Cup at Flemington over 3,200m and ought to find this much easier than the G1 Gold Cup over 3,991m, in which he finished seventh last year. His career record of four wins from 34 starts (Flat and Jumps) might not impress, and he has not raced since October, but he does have the form in the book and Ryan Moore has a great record when teaming up with Mullins here.
CORELLI, representing John Gosden and Frankie Dettori, is an unknown quantity at this extreme distance, for he has never run beyond 2,400m, the distance of his reappearance handicap second to BAGHDAD at Newmarket last time over 2,400m. He is from a family that stays very well, and is open to improvement now he faces a stiff test of stamina.
CLEONTE was third to DEE EX BEE in the G3 Sagaro Stakes here in May over 3,190m and was also a good third in last year’s Cesarewitch at Newmarket over 3,600m. He stays really well.
COEUR BLIMEY, who just failed to make the cut in Tuesday’s Ascot Stakes, lacks the class of some of his opponents, but he is a thorough stayer, as he confirmed when winning over 3,600m at Newbury on his reappearance.
PADDYS MOTORBIKE and LUCKY DEAL also won handicaps last time out, over 2,800m and 3,241m respectively. LUCKY DEAL won by a wide margin at Haydock and the more the ground dries the better.
JUKEBOX JIVE makes a quick reappearance after setting a strong pace before dropping right out in Tuesday’s Ascot Stakes over 3,991m. He is a thorough stayer but his effort there might well have taken its toll.
As usual, the field includes runners who are best known for their exploits over jumps and hard to assess on their Flat debuts. BLACK CORTON, representing champion jumps trainer Paul Nicholls, is a very smart performer over obstacles and won a G2 steeplechase here last year. YOUNEVERCALL, also making his debut on the Flat, is classy over obstacles and he ran the race of his life when making all in a G2 hurdle at Sandown in April, where he showed the benefit of a recent wind operation.
SELECTIONS: 5. CLEONTE, 9. MAX DYNAMITE, 2. CORELLI, 1. PALLASATOR & 13. LUCKY DEAL
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