Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Takarazuka Kinen (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 Takarazuka Kinen

The G1 Takarazuka Kinen is the race over 2,200m. In generally speaking, this is the distance which the runners are requited moderate combination of speed and stamina, however, the past result suggests the stamina is essential factor to win Takarazuka Kinen. For example, five out of last ten running of Takarazuka Kinen were won by the crop by STAY GOLD, who has also sired winners of four out of last ten running of the G1 Tenno Sho Spring, over 3,200m at Kyoto, and winners of five out of last ten running of the JPN G1 Nakayama Grand Jump, over 4,250m at Nakayama. As Takarazuka Kinen is scheduled at the end of spring racing carnival and June is rainy season in Japan, the track at Hanshin on the day of Takarazuka Kinen tends to be rough and could be too tough to handle for horses who are lacking stamina.

So then, who has enough stamina to win in the field of this year’s Takarazuka Kinen?

My first choice is KISEKI, trained by Katsuhiko Sumii. He is well-known as the second finisher in the G1 Japan Cup in 2018, which was won by ALMOND EYE who clocked 2 minutes 20.6 seconds, new world record over 2,400m. From this performance, KISEKI is recognized by many of racing fans as the horse who has brilliant speed. However, please remember 20 months ago, KISEKI is the winner of the G1 Kikuka Sho, over 3,000m at tiring muddy track at Kyoto Racecourse, and has proved that he is very tough and inexhaustible athlete. Though he has been winless through eight starts since then, the quality of this year’s Takarazuka Kinen is inferior than average and I reckon this is the golden chance for him to collect his second stakes with premier grade. 

My second choice is ETARIO by STAY GOLD, who is the most consistent runner in the field. While he has managed to win only one race from 11 starts so far, he has finished second in seven starts, including the G1 Kikuka Sho, in which he was runner-up to FIEREMENT, and has finished within first four in all starts. I believe it is very likely that he will finish within first four and there is strong possibility that he will finish within first two in Takarazuka Kinen.

REY DE ORO, winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun in 2017 and the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn in 2018, has the ability to win Takarazuka Kinen and he is consistent whenever he runs at his home nation. Though this is his first start since the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic in March, he is trained beautifully at Miho Training Center and I understand he is ready to run his race. REY DE ORO is my third choice,

This is also the first start for SUAVE RICHARD since the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic, where he finished third, while REY DE ORO was sixth. The winner of the G1 Osaka Hai in 2018, SUAVE RICHARD, is my fourth choice.

And MAKAHIKI, who finished fourth in the G1 Osaka Hai, covering the final 600m for 34.9 seconds, the quickest among 14 runners in the field of the Osaka Hai, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 1. KISEKI, 3. ETARIO, 2. REY DE ORO, 11. SUAVE RICHARD & 7. MAKAHIKI

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