Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Sprinters Stakes Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

 

S1-1 3yo and up allowance

The runners in the race over 1,200m dirt course at Nakayama are required to run on turf for 70m to 80m from the starting gate. And it is slight down slope for 500m from the starting gate as well. Therefore, the tempo of race tends to be fast and they could be tough races for front runners and the horses who track leaders from second and third position. 

However, the tendency at current September meeting at Nakayama, which started on 7th September seems to be different. It looks the dirt on homestretch could be lighter and thinner than usual, and the front runners and the horses who track leaders from second and third position do not stop at the final part of races. While the front runners are able to keep running until the wire, the closers have been struggling. Therefore, I would like to back fast horses, such as front runners and the horses who track the leaders.

My first pick is APOLLO CHEETAH, 3YO colt by APOLLO KINGDOM. He has been competitive at this class, as he finished second both in allowance races at Niigata on 25th August and at Nakayama on 15th September. He clocked 1 minute and 11 seconds last time out, and it is quicker than standard. And Nakayama is his favourite track as he has started there three times, won one of them, and finished second twice. I believe he has every chance to win on Sunday.

NARINO MAJOR, 5YO mare by DAIWA MAJOR, is my second choice. She bled during the race on 30th March at Nakayama and was suspended to run for a while. She returned racing on 14th September and it was very good effort, as she finished second, despite it was the first start since March. She clocked 1 minute and 10.9 seconds last time out, and it is faster than standard time. And the competition at this race looks to be weaker than the competition at the previous start. I believe NARINO MAJOR is the horse to beat APOLLO CHEETAH here.

SILVERSTONE has won an allowance race at Fukushima in November 2017, and finished third in allowance race of higher class at Nakayama in February 2018. Therefore, it is obvious that he is capable horse to win this race. And he ran well in allowance race at Nakayama on 7th September, finishing second there. And he can run his race, regardless of the tempo of race. SILVERSTONE is my third choice.

EARTH VIGOROUS, 5YO mare by SOUTH VIGOROUS, is the two time winner and both of races she won are 1,200m dirt race at Nakayama. And it is the factor that Norihiro Yokoyama is booked for her on Sunday. EARTH VIGOROUS is my fourth choice.

HOCUS POCUS, 4YO colt by ORFEVRE, won novice over 1,200m dirt at Nakayama 12 months ago. While he always tracks the leaders, his tank becomes empty at a furlong pole in recent starts. I think current light surface at Nakayama should help him to perform better on Sunday. He is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 12. APOLLO CHEETAH, 4. NARINO MAJOR, 13. SILVERSTONE, 2. EARTH VIGOROUS & 7. HOCUS POCUS



S1-2 3yo and up 1 win

The turf course at Nakayama at current September meeting has been quick. And since the temporary rail was set at 6m from permanent rail last week, the ground on rail side looks fresh and quick. It is big advantage for front runners and horses who track the leaders from second and third position. And the starting gate of this race is set at the top of homestretch, and the tempo of race tends to be slow. Therefore, I understand I should back front runners and horses who track leaders from second and third position in the field of this race.

WOLF'S HOWL, 3YO colt by HEART'S CRY, won novice class at Fukushima on 7th July, and finished third in allowance race at Nakayama on 15th September. I reckon it is very good effort, as it was the first time for WOLF'S HOWL to run against one time winners. He is still green and it may take a bit of more time for him to mature enough as athlete. However, he is fast horse and is suitable horse for quick ground at Nakayama. He may try to control the race in front, and should be able to make all, if all goes well for him throughout the race. WOLF'S HOWL is my first choice.

WIENERBROD, French-bred 3YO filly by CAMELOT, is ridden by Nanako Fujita, only female jockey at JRA, and it means WIENERBROD will receive 7lbs allowance in this race, which should be big advantage. Nanako Fujita has ridden this horse four times in the past and should have learned what type of animal she is. Although she was beaten sixth on 13th July last time out, I understand the slow track at Hakodate did not suit her. And she has been working very well in the morning toward this race and I have got the feeling that she has improved since her last start. She is my second choice.

TANTA GLORIA, 5YO mare by DEEP IMPACT, was transferred from Hideaki Fujiwara at Ritto Training Center to Toshiaki Tajima at Miho Training Center this summer. An allowance race at Sapporo on 1st September was her first start for Tajima, and she ran well, finishing first and demoted to second as the stewards judged that she interfered the second finisher at crucial stage of race. Though this is first time for her to run at Nakayama, her half-brother TANTA ALEGRIA is winner of the G2 American Jockey Club Cup at Nakayama and she should enjoy the track. She is my third choice.

MEGA DISCOVERY, 3YO gelding by WORKFORCE, out of French Deputy mare GINZA QUEEN BEE, should have inherited stamina both from his sire and dam side. I believe he will start to make up ground at three purling pole, and this running style should suit at Nakayama. He is my fourth choice.

SELECTIONS:2. WOLF'S HOWL, 8. WIENERBROD, 3. TANTA GLORIA & 9. MEGA DISCOVERY

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-2:    Banker – 2. WOLF'S HOWL
           Selections – 8. WIENERBROD, 3. TANTA GLORIA & 9. MEGA DISCOVERY
S1-3:    Banker – 5. MAX UN
           Selections – 1. BLACK HALO, 2. SEI VALIANT, 8. DEAD AHEAD & 6. SAKURA RUFEN


S1-3 3yo and up 1 win

There were two races with the same conditions last weekend at Nakayama, and the winning time of races were 1 minute and 54.6 seconds, and 1 minute and 54.8 seconds. While both of them are standard time, the time for final three furlongs were quicker than usual, and as I wrote in my analysis of S1-1, the dirt on homestretch at Nakayama should be lighter and quicker than usual. Therefore, I understand I should select horses who should be within a few length from front runner at top of homestretch. And 3YO generation has been running better than usual at this class this year, and I should pay more attention on 3YOs.

Though there are six 3YOs in the field, I pick up MAX UN as my first choice. The colt by NEO UNIVERSE ran very well in allowance race at Nakayama on 8th September, finishing second beaten by neck. While he used to be breaking slowly, he broke quickly in the last time out. He might hit the front too soon, and it might cost him at the final stage of race. It is important factor that Yuga Kawada, current leading jockey in Japan, is booked him for this race. If he runs his race, he should have good chance to win.

I assess the most talented horse in the field, who has bright future, is BLACK HALO. He has run only three times so far and it seems he has not matured well enough, as he is a big horse, as like his sire RULERSHIP. The 3YO colt won the maiden at same course and same distance as this race in March, and ran well in allowance race at Niigata on 28th July. BLACK HALO is my second choice.

SEI VALIANT, 3YO colt by BELSHAZZAR, winner of the G1 Japan Cup Dirt, is not so quick and does not have sharp turn of foot. On the other hand, once he gets on speed, he can keep stretching his legs and finish strongly. The connection is still wondering what the best distance is for him, and he was sent to the race over 1,400m last time out. While it was too short, I believe it was good experience for him. Though this is the first start for him since June, he has been trained very well in the morning, and he should be ready to run his race on Sunday. SEI VALIANT is my third choice.

My fourth choice is DEAD AHEAD, who has started only three times so far, as like my second choice, BLACK HALO. His first two starts are turf races, and he was well beaten at both occasions. Then, Kazuo Fujisawa, who trains the 3YO colt by HEART'S CRY, changed his mind and sent him to dirt race. He looked like different horse there and won novice over 1,700m dirt course at Fukushima by three lengths on 20th July. And the third finisher there was further seven lengths behind the second finisher. And he wore blinker for the first time in previous start and it should have worked well for him to perform much better. Though this is the first time for him to run against one time winners and the competition is tougher than the previous start, I think DEAD AHEAD should have good chance to finish in first four here.

SAKURA RUFEN finished second in allowance race at Nakayama on 14th September and I reckon it is good effort. On the other hand, the 3YO colt by I'LL HAVE ANOTHER finished the last of 16 runners' field at Tokyo on 22nd June. While he may have potential ability to win this race, he is not reliable at all. If Sunday is his day, he can finish in first five.

SELECTIONS: 5. MAX UN, 1. BLACK HALO, 2. SEI VALIANT, 8. DEAD AHEAD & 6. SAKURA RUFEN


S1-4     Saffron Sho

Saffron Sho is the stakes race for 2YO fillies who have won one race so far. The distance of the race is 1,600m, which is the same as the G1 Oka Sho, the first leg of Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies in April, however, none of first three finishers in the last five runnings of Saffron Sho would run well in Oka Sho, and it looks precocious fillies with a lot of speed tend to dominate this race.

One of the most impressive performances by 2YO fillies so far this year in Japan was displayed at Fukushima Racecourse on 13th July by MAGIC CASTLE, filly by DEEP IMPACT. She was settled in the middle of 16 runners' maiden, hit the front at the top of homestretch, and draw clear to won by four lengths, while the jockey was almost motionless. Although the distance of maiden was 1,200m and the extra 400m could be a concern for MAGIC CASTLE on Sunday, she is out of SO MAGIC, who is the winner of four races including the List race over 1,600m and finished third in the G1 Oka Sho. The pedigree suggests one mile is the ideal distance for MAGIC CASTLE. Although this is the first start for her since 13th July, I am sure she should be 100% fit on Sunday, as she is trained by Sakae Kunieda, who is one of leading trainers and has got the reputation as the expert to train fillies. I pick up MAGIC CASTLE as my first choice without any hesitation.

The horse to beat for MAGIC CASTLE here is BIG QUEEN BIO by KING'S BEST. She collected her first win at Tokyo Racecourse on 22nd June, which was her second start, and then, she was sent to Niigata Racecourse on 25th August to run against colts in the G3 Niigata Nisai Stakes. After tracking the leader from the second position, she hit the front at the middle of long homestretch of Niigata, and then she was beaten by two horses who had better late kick. It was a good effort by BIG QUEEN BIO, and Nakayama Racecourse, which has shorter homestretch, should suit her better. BIG QUEEN BIO is my second choice.

The performance by MALTESE DIOSA when she won maiden at Niigata on 31st August is also eye-catching. As she did not break well, she was left at almost rear of 18 runners' field and covered 33.8 seconds for the last three furlongs to win by half a length. The winning time, 1 minute 34.3 seconds, is 0.7 seconds faster than the G3 Niigata Nisai Stakes, which was taken place at the same course a week ago. MALTESE DIOSA is my third choice.

Even faster time was recorded by IZU JO NO KISEKI. She clocked 1 minute 33.8 seconds when she won maiden over 1,600m at Hanshin on 8th September. Though the track is different, it is obvious that she is fast filly and she is my fourth choice.

GILDED MIRROR, who displayed brilliant turn of foot when she won maiden at Chukyo on 13th July, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 5. MAGIC CASTLE, 7. BIG QUEEN BIO, 9. MALTESE DIOSA, 6. IZU JO NO KISEKI & 2. GILDED MIRROR

S1-5 Katsuura Tokubetsu

Katsuura Tokubetsu is the stakes race for two time winners, taken place at 1,200m turf course at Nakayama Racecourse. The track record there is still held by LORD KANALOA, two time winner of the G1 Hong Kong Sprint, who clocked 1 minute 6.7 seconds, when he won the G1 Sprinters Stakes in 2012.

The most consistent and reliable runner in the field is no doubt TAISEI AVENIR. He has finished second in allowance race on 14th April at Hanshin, beaten by neck, then ran two seconds in allowance race on 12th May and 26th May at Kyoto respectively. In addition, the 4YO colt finished second in Tango Stakes, for Graded Stakes performers, in April last year. It is obvious that he is better horse at the class of two time winners, and it is encouraging factor that Christophe Lemaire is booked for him. On the other hand, a negative factor for TAISEI AVENIR is the weight. JRA's handicappers assign him 126lbs, the top weight among 16 runners. All of first three finishers in the last four runnings of Katsuura Tokubetsu carried less than 121lbs and none of the horses who carried top weight managed to finish within fifth. Therefore, while I reckon he is a good horse, I cannot include him in my top three selections and he is my fourth choice.     

Another consistent horse at the class for two time winners in the field is SHISEI TAIGA, who finished third in allowance race at Fukushima on 30th June and second in another allowance race at Nakayama on 15th September. It seems he has ability to win the races of this class, and SHISEI TAIGA is my first choice.

VOLUSPA was beaten seventh in allowance race last time out, though, there were two excuses for the 4YO filly by LORD KANALOA. One of them is the rain softened ground, which she disliked. And it is the second reason that she was very slow to break. She has finished second in the race for two time winners twice before, and she likes the track at Nakayama, where she won two races from four starts. VOLUSPA is my second choice.

MARMALADE GIRL ran well in allowance race last start, where she finished third and was beaten only three quarters of length by the winner. It is very clear that her performance has improved since she started to wear sheepskin cheek pieces, and MARMALADE GIRL is my third choice.

SHIGERU BENGALTORA, who finished third in allowance race on 14th April at Nakayama, and second in another allowance race on 30th June, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 16. SHISEI TAIGA, 10. VOLUSPA, 12. MARMALADE GIRL, 9. TAISEI AVENIR & 2. SHIGERU BENGALTORA

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:    Banker – 16. SHISEI TAIGA
Selections – 10. VOLUSPA, 12. MARMALADE GIRL, 9. TAISEI AVENIR & 2. SHIGERU BENGALTORA
S1-6:    Banker – 2. DANON SMASH
Selections – 8. TOWER OF LONDON, 13. MR MELODY, 7. MOZU SUPERFLARE & 16. FANTASIST

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 16. SHISEI TAIGA, 10. VOLUSPA & 12. MARMALADE GIRL
S1-6: Multiple – 2. DANON SMASH, 8. TOWER OF LONDON & 13. MR MELODY
S1-7: Multiple – 1. GOODBYE GIRL, 15. LOGI TINA & 4. SPELL MARRON

S1-6 Sprinters Stakes

When you read through the form of first and second finishers in the last ten runnings of the G1 Sprinters Stakes, you should find almost all of them had won at least two Graded Stakes over 1,000m to 1,400m, and has completed 1,200m race for quicker than 1 minute 7.6 seconds. In view of these, I believe I should choose either DANON SMASH or TOWER OF LONDON as my first pick. While the performance of TOWER OF LONDON in the G2 Centaur Stakes on 8th September at Hanshin was ultra-impressive, there are several unfavourable factors for the colt, so I select DANON SMASH as my favourite consequently.   

DANON SMASH started three time so far this year and won two of them. He was beaten fourth in the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen at Chukyo in March and the reason of this defeat is obvious. DANON SMASH won all his six races at clockwise track, while he is winless through four starts at anticlockwise track. As Chukyo is anticlockwise, it is not suitable track for DANON SMASH. The 4YO colt by LORD KANALOA won the G3 Keeneland Cup comfortably on 25th August at Sapporo, which is clockwise track, beating TOWER OF LONDON, and Nakayama, the stage of Sprinters Stakes, is clockwise track. Hence, I believe this is ideal for DANON SMASH to run his race. And it is encouraging that DANON SMASH is trained by Takayuki Yasuda and ridden by Yuga Kawada, who are outstanding leaders of table for trainers and jockeys.       

As I mentioned beforehand. It was eye-catching performance from TOWER OF LONDON when he won the G2 Centaur Stakes by three lengths and established new track record at 1,200m turf course of Hanshin Racecourse, however, what I am worried about him is the last two starts might have squeezed him. He ran the G3 Keeneland Cup at Sapporo on 25th August, and ran again within fortnight at Hanshin, where is 920 miles away from Sapporo. Between two races, he went back from Sapporo to Miho near Tokyo, where he is based, and then, he was shipped to Hanshin near Osaka, where he had tiring race. I am worried it may be too tough to run another race 21 days after the previous race. And up until a week ago, Kazuo Fujisawa intended to send TOWER OF LONDON and GRAN ALEGRIA to the Sprinters Stakes, and Christophe Lemaire had chosen GRAN ALEGRIA, who was subsequently withdrawn due to having foot abscess. I cannot neglect the fact that TOWER OF LONDON was Christophe's second choice.

I understand MR MELODY, winner of the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen, has class to win another G1, however, this American-bred colt prefers anticlockwise track and has never won at clockwise track.

MOZU SUPERFLARE loves the track at Nakayama, where she started four times and won three of them, including the G3 Ocean Stakes. And she should have improved from her previous start, the G3 Kitakyushu Kinen on 18th August, which was the first start for her since March.

FANTASIST, second finisher to TOWER OF LONDON in the G2 Centaur Stakes, should have chance to earn some prize money on Sunday.


SELECTIONS: 2. DANON SMASH, 8. TOWER OF LONDON, 13. MR MELODY, 7. MOZU SUPERFLARE & 16. FANTASIST

S1-7     Nokogiriyama Tokubetsu

Nokogiriyama Tokubetsu is the stakes race for two time winners. And this is really an open race, as there is no outstanding horse in the field.

There was an allowance race at Sapporo Racecourse on 4th August, which was the stakes race for two time winners, and the second finisher there was GOODBYE GIRL, 3YO filly by KANE HEKILI, who was awarded as Champion Dirt Horse twice. GOODBYE GIRL won an allowance race at Hakodate on 20th July by three and half a length and last start was the first time to run against two time winners for her. Hence, the competition was tougher than the previous start, though, she ran well and beaten by the winner by only half a length, and the third finisher was five lengths behind her. And GOODBYE GIRL has collected the first win on 20th January in the maiden over 1,800m at Nakayama, which is the same course and same distance as Nokogiriyama Tokubetsu. GOODBYE GIRL is my first choice.

The allowance race at Fukushima Racecourse on 21st July is also the stakes race for two time winners, and the second finisher there was LOGI TINA, 4YO colt by LOGI UNIVERSE. GRASS BLUES, winner of that race, subsequently finished second in Uchibo Stakes on 22nd September at Nakayama, which is the stakes race for three time winners. It proves that the competition at Fukushima was high and LOGI TINA was beaten by a good horse. LOGI TINA is my second choice.

SPELL MARRON is the winner of an allowance race at Niigata Racecourse on 26th August 2017, which is the stakes race for two time winners, therefore, he has already won the race of this standard. Since then, he struggled to compete in the class for three time winners, and demoted at the class for two time winners. He finished second in an allowance race of this class on 30th March at Nakayama and finished second again in an allowance race of this class on 27th July at Niigata. He is certainly competitive at this class, and SPELL MARRON is my third choice.

ON THE ROCKS has run well in the last two starts, competing against two time winners. The 6YO finished third twice in allowance race at Kokura on 11th August and 1st September respectively. It is very important factor that Christophe Lemaire is booked for him on Sunday, and he is my fourth choice.

Another runner in the field who likes Nakayama Racecourse is GREENWICH CITY by ESPOIR CITY, who was awarded as Champion Dirt Horse twice. GREENWICH CITY has won two races and finished second once from three starts at Nakayama. He is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 1. GOODBYE GIRL, 15. LOGI TINA, 4. SPELL MARRON, 9. ON THE ROCKS & 10. GREENWICH CITY

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