 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
ENABLE became just the second filly trained in Great Britain or Ireland to land the 2,400m G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in 2017 and again followed up in the race last year under jockey Frankie Dettori. The John Gosden-trained 5YO is unsurprisingly the bookmaker’s favourite as she bids to make history by winning her third Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in a row and her 11th G1 success overall. She’s been seen on the track three times this season, kicking off with victory in the 1,990m G1 Eclipse Stakes at Sandown, before just doing enough to land the G1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2,392m. Her third win of the season, and her most impressive to date, came at the expense of Aidan O’Brien’s MAGICAL in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks over 2,371m, winning by nearly three lengths. Having won 13 of her 14 career starts to date, it’s difficult to see any other outcome than an ENABLE win, especially as she has versatility in regard to ground should the weather turn.
When it comes to winning G1 contests, there aren’t many better in the game than O’Brien and the Irish trainer will have JAPAN primed and ready to pick up the pieces should ENABLE falter. Although only three, JAPAN already boasts some seriously impressive form that will help him go toe-to-toe with most of these, including last time out when landing the G1 International Stakes over 2,051m. He also boasts winning form in France following his victory in the G1 Grand Prix de Paris over 2,400m, and a replication of his best form should see him finish close to the favourite.
Great Britain raiders hold the majority of leading chances but the French have a good chance with WALDGEIST who chased home ENABLE at Ascot in July. Andre Fabre’s inmate stayed on well and was beaten less than two lengths that day to finish third behind her and CRYSTAL OCEAN, with a further seven lengths back to the fourth. The 5YO was given a nice 50-day break following that effort and returned to win the G2 Prix Foy over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp in the middle of September.
SOTTSASS won the G1 Prix du Jockey Club over 2,100m in early June the truly entered the reckoning for this race after winning the G2 Prix Niel over 2,400m. Those who backed the 3YO were rewarded with a comfortable victory and he’ll have his followers again, but this is a tougher task and he may have to settle for the minor placings.
Charlie Appleby’s GHAIYYATH looks the best of the rest having destroyed the field in the G1 Grosser Preis Von Baden at Baden-Baden over 2,400m last time out. The Godolphin representative won by a whopping 14 lengths that day. That was his first run in 126 days and he is an exciting proposition, but we are yet to see just how strong that form is.
Elsewhere, the aforementioned MAGICAL is another flying the flag for both Ireland and O’Brien. The 4YO finished 10th in this race last season and will need to improve a whole lot to get anywhere near ENABLE having failed to beat her on numerous occasions this season.
The rest of the field looks as though it will be battling for pride, with Japanese entry FIEREMENT probably the most interesting following a G1 success in the Tenno Sho Spring over 3,200m.
SELECTIONS: 8. ENABLE, 10. JAPAN, 2. WALDGEIST, 12. SOTTSASS & 3. GHAIYYATH
S1-2 Prix de l'Opera
If ENABLE wasn’t such a world-beater, then she’d probably opt to take on her own sex in the G1 Prix de l’Opera. Like the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, this 2,000m contest for fillies and mares has proved successful for 3YOs, who get a useful weight allowance. Four of the last five winners were representing the Classic generation and this year’s likely market leader, MEHDAAYIH, is a 3YO too. With all of the last four renewals going to overseas yards, the raiders look strong again and this filly, trained by John Gosden in Great Britain, has strong claims. She won her only previous start in France, the G2 Prix de Malleret over 2,400m, in good style and wasn’t disgraced next time up in the 1,979m G1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood when second to DEIRDRE. Denied a clear run in the 2,405m G1 Oaks Stakes at Epsom, MEHDAAYIH could only finish seventh of 14 that day, but has since proved she’s capable of competing at the top level and should go close once again.
Gosden also fields TEREBELLUM, a filly with just three runs under her belt who looks to be improving. She stepped up from a third in Listed company at Newbury over 2,000m to land the G2 Prix de la Nonette over 2,000m at Deauville. That recent win was fairly comfortable and it looks as though there’s plenty more to come from her.
Aidan O’Brien saddled the first two home in this race two years ago and was then responsible for the runner-up 12 months ago. He returns this year with a relative outsider in the shape of FLEETING. Even though it looks like she’ll be a fairly big price, she has some solid form in the book and could run a big race if repeating her two placed efforts in G1 company. The daughter of ZOFFANY, who also appears to handle soft conditions, was third in the G1 Oaks Stakes over 2,405m, ahead of MEHDAAYIH, and finished second in the 2,400m G1 Irish Oaks three starts ago. She was last seen finishing fifth, but only two lengths behind winner STAR CATCHER, in the G1 Prix Vermeille over 2,400m, and although she’d need to find her very best to get involved here, conditions should suit and it’s interesting to see her coming back down in trip.
The home team have WATCH ME, COMMES and WITH YOU leading the charge.
The latter finished fourth in this race 12 months ago and has gone on to finish second in two G1 contests since, with blinkers applied for both. The addition of blinkers seems to have sharpened her up a bit, though she may have to settle for minor honours if her rivals run up to their best form.
3YO COMMES has been battling it out with her own age group all season and is yet to get her nose in front in four attempts. That said, she’s finished second in two G1s and is still open to some improvement, although it would take a career best to get involved here.
France’s other main hope is WATCH ME, who landed the 1,600m G1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot earlier in the summer. Francis-Henri Graffard’s filly followed that up with a fourth in the G1 Jacques le Marois over 1,600m and appeared to be doing all of her best work at the end of the race. The step up in trip could bring about further improvement and she looks more than capable of throwing down a big challenge to the Great Britain and Irish raiders.
SELECTIONS: 3. WATCH ME, 7. MEHDAAYIH, 8. TEREBELLUM, 2. WITH YOU & 11. FLEETING
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 3. WATCH ME
Selections – 7. MEHDAAYIH, 8. TEREBELLUM, 2. WITH YOU & 11. FLEETING
S1-3: Banker – 2. BATTAASH
Selections – 10. MABS CROSS, 3. SOLDIER'S CALL, 14. FAIRYLAND & 11. GLASS SLIPPERS
S1-3 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp
The 1,000m Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp has had just four multiple winners in its 61 year history, with LOCHSONG the most recent in 1993 and 1994. BATTAASH seeks to etch his name amongst that elite crop having won the race in 2017 before disappointing last year. Since that run, a wind operation seems to have brought about even more improvement in the 5YO, with his only defeat this season coming in the G1 King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot over 1,000m, where he was narrowly beaten by BLUE POINT. He got the job done at Goodwood next time, before demolishing a high-class field and breaking the course record in the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m in August. That’s the strongest form on offer here and Charles Hills’ charge looks the one to beat as he seeks a third G1 success.
Like BATTAASH, MABS CROSS is seeking a second win in the race having won it last year. Michael Dods’ 5YO defied a big weight to win the 1,000m G3 Palace House Stakes on her seasonal reappearance this year. She was over five lengths behind BATTAASH at York and struggled in the G1 1,000m Flying Fives Stakes last time, so she may struggle to turn the form around with her main rival here. She has run some very good races this season, though, and is a class act on her day.
FAIRYLAND, SO PERFECT and SOLDIER'S CALL all ran in the G1 Flying Five Stakes last time, with FAIRYLAND narrowly beating stablemate SO PERFECT. The winner had not been at her best all season, but she really stuck to her task well inside the final 200m and, given she won the 1,200m G1 Cheveley Park Stakes 12 months ago, she clearly seems to flourish at this time of the year. She is preferred to Aidan O’Brien’s other runner, SO PERFECT, who looks more comfortable at 1,200m.
Archie Watson’s SOLDIER’S CALL is an interesting contender as he went close in this race last year when only a 2YO and running against some experienced sprinters. Though Watson’s son of SHOWCASING has failed to get his head in front in over a year, he’s run very well in a number of top-class races and should be in the mix again.
INVINCIBLE ARMY ran well to be third behind FAIRYLAND in the aforementioned 1,000m G1 Flying Five Stakes, but most of his best form has been over 1,200m.
Kevin Ryan won this race back in 2006 with DESERT LORD and he will have high hopes that his GLASS SLIPPERS can hit the frame. The 3YO son of DREAM AHEAD is two from two in France and won the G3 Prix du Petit Couvert over course and distance last month. He clearly likes his trips over the English Channel and he might be able to confirm the form with fellow 3YO SHADES OF BLUE who he beat by a narrow margin. Clive Cox’s runner has never finished outside the first three in his eight race career, so he is another who might be able to pick up some prize money.
SELECTIONS: 2. BATTAASH, 10. MABS CROSS, 3. SOLDIER'S CALL, 14. FAIRYLAND & 11. GLASS SLIPPERS
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 2. BATTAASH, 10. MABS CROSS & 3. SOLDIER'S CALL
S1-4: Multiple – 3. CITY LIGHT, 4. WALDPFAD & 10. ONE MASTER
S1-5: Multiple – 4. SALT LAKE CITY, 8. POST VAR & 2. CARLTON CHOICE
S1-4 Prix de la Foret
English trainers have dominated the 1,400m G1 Prix de la Foret in recent times, with four winners in the last five years. Their main hope this time looks to be last year's winner ONE MASTER who returns to defend her crown. The William Haggas-trained 5YO mare hasn't won any of her six starts since landing this last October, but has run well in defeat on a number of occasions. She caught the eye when staying on well to be fifth over an inadequate 1,300m in the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville back in August and this will have been the plan for some time. If there was a concern it would be if the ground got really soft as she has shown her best form on a sound surface.
Conditions shouldn't inconvenience CITY LIGHT who leads the home challenge having taken the G3 Prix du Pin last time. That was his first run over 1,400m since November 2016 and he seemed to relish the extra distance having been campaigned over 1,000m and 1,200m for almost the entirety of his career. He was only just touched off in the G1 1,200m Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last year and a reproduction of that form would make him the one to beat here. Connections may well have found the key to him with this new trip and he gets the vote.
The biggest danger to CITY LIGHT looks likely to be German raider WALDPFAD who ran a career best to be third in the G1 1,200m Sprint Cup. He ran on really well late on that day and seems worth stepping back up to this distance. Any further rain will only improve his chances and he looks sure to be in the mix up.
If conditions do dry out a little, then British raider SIR DANCEALOT could easily feature. David Elsworth’s 5YO gelding has turned himself into a bit of a 1,400m specialist in the second half of this season having been tried unsuccessfully over 1,600m on his first two starts. He won the G2 Lennox Stakes over 1,400m, before two slightly below par efforts at Newbury and York over the same distance. However, he bounced back to his best when taking the 1,405m G2 Park Stakes at Doncaster last time and, if in similar form here, he could easily improve on the fifth position he managed in this race 12 months ago. He is best on a sound surface, though, so a careful weather watch is advised.
If conditions were to get really bad, then SAFE VOYAGE would enter calculations because he is at his best when the mud flies.
GLORIOUS JOURNEY failed to fire at this meeting 12 months ago but looks an improved performer this campaign. He handles soft ground well and had both SIR DANCEALOT and SAFE VOYAGE behind him when winning the 1,400m G2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last time. This will require a lot more, but he has proved himself on French soil before by winning at Deauville last August.
SELECTIONS: 3. CITY LIGHT, 4. WALDPFAD, 10. ONE MASTER, 6. GLORIOUS JOURNEY & 2. SIR DANCEALOT
S1-5 Grand Handicap des Flyers
This competitive finale over 1,400m is loaded with ifs and buts, but we ought to get a good run with SALT LAKE CITY, who came off third best in a blanket finish in a stronger race here over 1,400m on Arc Trials day three weeks ago. Granted two of today’s rivals, CARLTON CHOICE and POST VAR, finished just in front of him, but there was nothing between them at the line. At the revised weights SALT LAKE CITY can come out on top. SALT LAKE CITY was a surprise winner over 1,400m on his seasonal debut here in May and has not been out of the frame in four runs since, so his claims look rock solid. However, despite having taken a hike up the handicap, CARLTON CHOICE has to be in the mix as he has not finished out of the frame in seven out of eight races for his present trainer. He is also something of a course specialist, winning three times over this 1,400m this season.
Not that we can rule out POST VAR, who started favourite for the aforementioned race. He has not finished out of the prize money in last ten runs, so he too looks cast iron as a win and place investment.
Course and distance winner MILLFIELD only just missed out on a place in this race last year and comes here in better form this time around. Successful here on easy ground in April over 1,400m, he again demonstrated his liking for the track when fourth here last time, and, though he has work to do to reverse that form with CARLTON CHOICE and SALT LAKE CITY, he could again hit the board at big odds.
ZAVRINKA was only eighth in that race, but she was still beaten only three lengths in first-time blinkers, and even though she has not really fired since winning at Chantilly over 1,300m in March, she looks to be coming back to form.
Top weight VISCOUNT BARFIELD has done well since he joined trainer Pia Brandt from Sweden this time last year. Although it was a 1,200m race he won at Deauville in August and he has been campaigning all summer over the shorter trip, he did win twice over this 1,400m when with Andrew Balding in the Great Britain two years ago.
HOPELESS had ZAVRINKA well behind when producing a shock win here over 1,400m in June, but he has disappointed in his last two races, finishing a long way behind VISCOUNT BARFIELD at Deauville.
The spark has certainly returned to GEORGE THE PRINCE in his last two races. He won at Deauville over 1,200m before finishing third at Maisons-Laffitte over 1,200m, but he has yet to prove that he stays this longer trip.
SELECTIONS: 4. SALT LAKE CITY, 8. POST VAR, 2. CARLTON CHOICE, 3. MILLFIELD & 1. VISCOUNT BARFIELD
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