Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Shuka Sho Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 3yo and up 1 win

As the first turn comes soon after the break at 1,800m dirt course at Kyoto, the horses who have good speed starting from inner barriers have advantage and tend to enjoy better result.

My first choice is CANNON BAROWS, 3YO gelding by EMPIRE MAKER. He was regarded highly when he won maiden for first time starters at Hanshin on 16th March. However, he had temperament issue, which should be inherited from his sire EMPIRE MAKER, and was beaten twice in the allowance race for one time winners. Then, the connection decides to geld him and had surgery in early summer. CANNON BAROWS returned to the battle line on 15th September at Hanshin and finished ninth in allowance race for one time winners. It is obvious that he needed the race and I am pretty sure he runs much better on Sunday. CANNON BAROWS is my first choice.      

My second choice is PUERTA DEL SOL, 5YO horse by STAY GOLD. Since March, he has started at allowance level for one time winners for six time and finished second in three of them. It is as clear as daylight that he is consistent in this class. And he can adopt with any tempo of race, for example, he goes in front if nobody else is willing to set the pace, and comes from rear of field, if the pace of race is strong. And he is trained beautifully in the morning and should perform better than previous start on Sunday.

KING'S CROSS, 4YO colt by EMPIRE MAKER, is my third choice. While he finished second in allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 28th September, he was well beaten by the winner, and we should perhaps not regard this performance highly. On the other hand, he covered final 600m for 36.9 seconds, which is the second fastest of 13 runners, and did not give up running to the end of race. I believe he has good chance to finish in first three on Sunday. 

This is the first time for MODUS OPERANDI, 3YO colt by DAIWA MAJOR, to run over 1,800m on dirt. I think this decision by the connection works well on Sunday, as I understand quicker tempo of race should suit him better. And I am impressed with his recent works in the morning and have feeling that he is improving now. MODUS OPERANDI is my fourth choice.   

SUNRISE ACACIA, 3YO colt by EMPIRE MAKER, failed to win maiden and has still not won any races through nine starts. However, the margin was only nose when he finished second in maiden at Kokura on 31st August, and I think he should have ability to win the maiden. Though he was beaten sixth in allowance level for one time winners at Hanshin on 22nd September, he broke from wide draw and ran three wide and four wide all way through. I believe he should be competitive in this class, and is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 3. CANNON BAROWS, 1. PUERTA DEL SOL, 5. KING'S CROSS, 7. MODUS OPERANDI & 8. SUNRISE ACACIA

S1-2     3yo and up 1 win

This is the race with same course and distance as the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup, championship race for fillies and mares in Japan. As the homestretch is long enough for closers to catch leaders, I usually intend to back closers at this course. However, as I watched the races on last weekend at Kyoto, the track condition seems to be favourable for front runners and the horses who track leaders closely, for example, the G2 Kyoto Daishoten on last weekend was won by the horse who tracked the leader from third position and the front runner finished second. I understand I should select my choices from the horses who should be within a couple of length from front runner at the top of homestretch.    

My first choice is FRANKLIN, 3YO colt by DEEP IMPACT. He is from beautiful family of Katsumi Yoshida’s Northern Farm and was regarded very highly when he won maiden at Hanshin on 7th April. Next start for him was the G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai at Kyoto on 4th May, when he was beaten 13th, and this is the first start for him since then. I believe this colt should have class to compete in higher level, and this should be stepping stone for the DEEP IMPACT colt. And it is encouraging factor that Christophe Lemaire is booked for him on Sunday.

I believe the horse to beat for FRANKLIN is TIGRASHA, 3YO filly by DEEP IMPACT. The talented filly made successful racecourse debut at Hanshin on 9th December 2018, when she won maiden easily. And she has finished second both in allowance level for one time winners at Hanshin on 15th June and at Niigata on 17th August. To be honest, I am not sure if she has enough stamina to stay 2,200m, which she has never run before. But I believe it should not be a big problem for the filly by DEEP IMPACT. TIGRASHA is my second choice. 

My third choice is COCONUTS SLEW, 4YO filly by HEART’S CRY. She failed to win any race at JRA, when she was 3YO, and was transferred to NAR, where she collected two wins. The late bloomer returned at JRA and finished second in allowance level over 2,000m on turf at Hanshin on 14th September, when she hit the front at too soon, at 600m pole, and idled at the middle of homestretch. The extra 200m here should help her and I believe she should finish within first three on Sunday.

My fourth choice is SHORYU IKUZO, 3YO colt by ORFEVRE. He finished fifth in the G3 Kyoto Nisai Stakes when he was 2YO, and third in the Listed contest in February 2019. I believe he has potential to graduate this class, and Kyoto Racecourse is more suitable track for his running style than Kokura Racecourse, where he was beaten in last two starts.  And he has been trained beautifully in the morning since last start, and I understand he should run well on Sunday than his previous start.

And my fifth choice is PATRICK, 3YO colt by WORKFORCE, who finished fourth in allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 29th September.


SELECTIONS: 3. FRANKLIN, 9. TIGRASHA, 1. COCONUTS SLEW, 7. SHORYU IKUZO & 11. PATRICK

DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:    Banker – 3. FRANKLIN
Selections – 9. TIGRASHA, 1. COCONUTS SLEW, 7. SHORYU IKUZO & 11. PATRICK
S1-3:    Banker – 3. COPANO MARTIN
Selections – 12. DRACAENA, 7. TOKAI ORAGE, 10. NAMURA SHEPHERD & 6. ASHAKA LIEN

S1-3     3yo and up 1 win

This race is taken place at unique setting of course. While it is described as dirt 1,400m, runners need to run on turf for nearly 200m from the start. I understand I should place high importance on the past performance of runners at this course and distance.

My first choice is COPANO MARTIN, 3YO colt by SCREEN HERO, who made all the maiden on dirt over 1,400m at Kyoto in November 2018. Although he has not won any race since then, he finished third in allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 14th September and it was not bad performance. There is no typical front runner in the field and I believe he will manage to control the race in the front. It should be good chance for him to collect his second win on Sunday.

I reckon the horse to beat for COPANO MARTIN is DRACAENA, 4YO gelding by RULERSHIP. He is gorgeous horse, from the point of physical, carrying a lot of muscle, which should be inherited from his sire. Since he collected his first win in November 2017, he was struggling to compete at the class for one time winners, however, he finished third in allowance race for one time winners over 1,400m on dirt at Kyoto on 16th September, which was good effort. DRACAENA is my second choice.　　  

My third choice is TOKAI ORAGE, 3YO colt by ORFEVRE, who finished sixth in allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 29th September. He has started nine times so far, and all of them are races on turf. It means this is the first time for him to run dirt race, though, I have the impression from his morning track work that the colt out of KING KAMEHAMEHA’s mare should act better on dirt. As he dislikes the kick back of sands, the jockey may need to take the route near stand rail on homestretch.

My fourth choice is NAMURA SHEPHERD, 3YO colt by JOHANNESBURG. It was good effort from him when he finished fourth in allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 14th September, despite he was bumped soon after the break.

And my fifth choice is ASHAKA LIEN, 5YO horse by SUMMER BIRD, who has actually won allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 8th April 2018. Though he was beaten eighth in allowance level at Hanshin on 28th September, it was his first start since June and he needed the run. He has been working much better in the morning since his previous start, and should be ready to run his race on Sunday.

SELECTIONS: 3. COPANO MARTIN, 12. DRACAENA, 7. TOKAI ORAGE, 10. NAMURA SHEPHERD & 6. ASHAKA LIEN

S1-4     Shigiku Sho

Shigiku Sho is the stakes race for 2YO one time winners. As the distance of race is 2,000m, there might be a winner of next year’s classic race in this small field.

My first choice is CHAMP DE FLEURS, and there are several reasons to back her. First of all, she is by KIZUNA, very exciting new stallion, by DEEP IMPACT, who has already sent 15 winners from his first crop. KIZUNA is not only the leader of Freshman Sires ranking, but also the leading 2YO sire in Japan at the moment. It is a kind of pleasant surprise, as the G1 Tokyo Yushun winner in 2013 was not very precocious type himself. And CHAMP DE FLEURS is three parts sister to TIR NA NOG, who is by DEEP IMPACT and is impressive winner of Shiguku Sho in 2014. Another very important factor is Yutaka Take. Though the super jockey in Japan had the option to ride CHUWANO KISEKI, as he rode the colt by KINSHASA NO KISEKI when he won maiden at Hanshin on 22nd September. Yutaka selects to ride CHAMP DE FLEURS here, which is encouraging.

I believe the horse to beat for CHAMP DE FLEURS is JUN LIGHT BOLT, colt by KING KAMEHAMEHA. He is from beautiful family of Katsumi Yoshida’s Northern Farm, as his third dam is AIR GROOVE, Japanese Horse of the Year in 1997, and forth dam is DYNA CARLE, winner of G1 Japanese Oaks in 1983. His performance when he won maiden at Hanshin on 7th September was eye-catching. While the ground at Kyoto on Sunday is expected to become softish, his sire KING KAMEHAMEHA has sent many runners who prefer cutting ground. JUN LIGHT BOLT is my second choice.

As I mentioned beforehand, CHUWANO KISEKI is the winner of maiden for the first time starters over 2,000m at Hanshin on 22nd September, ridden by Yutaka Take, and Shigiku Sho is the second start for the colt, who is also bred by Northern Farm. While his sire KINSHASA NO KISEKI is Japanese Champion Sprinter in 2010, I have the feeling from his previous start that he has received much stronger influence from his dam, MYSTIC LIPS, winner of G1 German Oaks. And both of KINSHASA NO KISEKI and MYSTIC LIPS acted well on wet track. CHUWANO KISEKI is my third choice.

In fact, I thought I would select SOUL TRAIN, colt by RED SPADA, who won maiden at Hanshin on 21st September as my second or third choice a week ago, at the first declaration stage. However, the weather forecast for this weekend suggests the ground could be soft, which his sire RED SPADA disliked and he is my fourth choice now.

And BLOOMING SKY, colt by DEEP IMPACT, who won maiden at Kokura on 3rd August, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 5. CHAMP DE FLEURS, 3. JUN LIGHT BOLT, 7. CHUWANO KISEKI, 1. SOUL TRAIN & 2. BLOOMING SKY

S1-5     Sannenzaka Tokubetsu

Sannenzaka Tokubetsu is stakes race for two time winners over 1,600m turf course. There is no outstanding horse in the field and it looks very wide open. And the track condition, which could be rain-softed, is another complicated factor.

My first choice is VIN DE GARDE, 3YO colt by DEEP IMPACT. The colt bred by Teruya Yoshida’ Shadai Farm is out of SKIA, Graded Stakes winner in France. He made successful debut at Hanshin in September 2018, and the connection expected him to be a Classic contender. However, he could not get in the field of G1 Satsuki Sho, first leg of Triple Crown for 3YO colts, after finishing third in G3 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes in November 2018 and finishing third again in G3 Mainichi Hai in March 2019. He was given five months break, and came back at Hanshin on 7th September, when VIN DE GARDE won an allowance race for one time starters impressively. Though the competition here is tougher than the precious start, I believe he is capable to compete in this class. While many of DEEP IMPACT’s crop prefer quick surface, the ground at Hanshin when he won the maiden was soft.

I believe the horse to beat for VIN DE GARDE is RETICULE, 3YO filly by HEART’S CRY, she won maiden at Chukyo on 30th June, which was her fourth start, and won an allowance race for one time winners at Kokura on 4th August. It is obvious that she is improving now, and I understand she is typical progeny by HEART’S CRY. And the ground at Chukyo when she won the maiden was soft. 

Another interesting 3YO filly in the field is MIKKI BADEELAH by DEEP IMPACT. She has started ten times so far, and won two of them, including an allowance race for one time starters at Hanshin on 15th September, and she has never been out of frame, finishing within first four in all ten starts. She is so consistent, and I reckon she could be competitive in this class. She is my third choice.         

ROQUETTE, 4YO filly by DEEP SKY, who finished second in allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo on 7th July, is my fourth choice. Though this is the first start for her since July, she has been trained beautifully in the morning at Ritto Training Center.

My fifth choice is IL VENTO DEA, 3YO filly by EISHIN FLASH, who won an allowance race for one time winners on 16th September at Nakayama, where the track condition was soft.

SELECTIONS: 9. VIN DE GARDE, 3. RETICULE, 5. MIKKI BADEELAH, 8. ROQUETTE & 7. IL VENTO DEA

DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:    Banker – 9. VIN DE GARDE
Selections – 3. RETICULE, 5. MIKKI BADEELAH, 8. ROQUETTE & 7. IL VENTO DEA
S1-6:    Banker – 8. CURREN BOUQUETD'OR
Selections – 1. DANON FANTASY, 7. BEACH SAMBA, 13. SATONO DAMSEL & 6. ROSE TESORO

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 9. VIN DE GARDE, 3. RETICULE & 5. MIKKI BADEELAH
S1-6: Multiple – 8. CURREN BOUQUETD'OR, 1. DANON FANTASY & 7. BEACH SAMBA
S1-7: Multiple – 1. CURREN KAKA, 6. KOMA BISHO & 7. GREAT TIME

S1-6     Shuka Sho

Although it is shamed that LOVES ONLY YOU, unbeaten G1 Yushun Himba winner by DEEP IMPACT, is sidelined due to foot injury, I assess this is strong renewal of G1 Shuka Sho, as second, third, fifth, sixth and seventh finishers in G1 Yushun Himba are standing by, in addition to some rising horses who improved during summer season.

29 out of 30 horses who finished in first three in the last ten runnings of G1 Shuka Sho had a prep race after having summer break. Only exception is ALMOND EYE, winner of this race twelve months ago. Her previous start was Yushun Himba and she went straight to Shuka Sho without having any prep race. As you know well, ALMOND EYE is very special horse, and I understand I should select the horses who have run after having summer break. In other words, CHRONO GENESIS and SCHON GLANZ, who finished third and seventh in Yushun Himba are excluded from my selections.

Three winners of G1 Shuka Sho in the last five years prepped at G3 Shion Stakes at Nakayama, and my first choice is CURREN BOUQUETD'OR by DEEP IMPACT, who finished third in G3 Shion Stakes on 7th September. She is the second finisher in G1 Yushun Himba, beaten by neck by LOVES ONLY YOU, and the third finisher was two and half lengths behind her. It was tremendous effort and she should be the best horse in this field of Shuka Sho. She is trained by Sakae Kunieda, who trained two Triple Tiara winners, APAPANE in 2010 and ALMOND EYE in 2018, and is well known as ‘Expert to train fillies’. Under his care, she has improved significantly since the last start.

The horse to beat for CURREN BOUQUETD'OR is DANON FANTASY, another DEEP IMPACT filly in the field. Last year’s Champion Juvenile Filly was a bit disappointing in spring, when she finished fourth in G1 Oka Sho and fifth in G1 Yushun Himba. However, it is proved that she has regained her top form when she won G2 Rose Stakes at Hanshin on 15th September, establishing new track record. It is fantastic performance. While she won the race at outer track at Kyoto, she has never run a race at inner track at Kyoto, which I am worried about. She is my second choice.

BEACH SAMBA by KUROFUNE, who was runner-up to DANON FANTASY in G2 Rose Stakes, beaten by neck, had also finished third to the same horse in G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies in last December. She is obviously top class filly and is my third choice.

Very interesting rising star in the field is SATONO DAMSEL by DEEP IMPACT. The half-sister to ANIMAL KINGDOM, G1 Kentucky Derby winner, did not start until 23rd June, when she made successful racecourse debut in maiden at Tokyo. Including this maiden, she has started three times so far and won all of them, including an allowance race for two time winners, beating older horses. Though this is first time for her to compete in Graded Stakes, she is my fourth choice.

I like the performance by ROSE TESORO, when she won an allowance race at Niigata on 4th August, and I believe she has chance to finish in first five on Sunday.

SELECTIONS: 8. CURREN BOUQUETD'OR, 1. DANON FANTASY, 7. BEACH SAMBA, 13. SATONO DAMSEL & 6. ROSE TESORO

S1-7     Heijokyo Stakes


Heijokyo Stakes is the race for three time winners. It means the winner of this race is promoted to Graded Stakes class next start. It is not big field and looks straight forward.

My first choice is CURREN KAKA, 5YO horse by KUROFUNE. He graduated the class for two time winners at Kyoto in April when he won the allowance race for two time winners, and finished second in an allowance race at Kyoto in May. It was very good effort, as it was the first time for him to compete in the class for three time winners. He started in Uchibo Stakes for three time winners at Nakayama on 22nd September, and was well beaten there. However, there is a couple of excuse which can explain the poor performance, First of all, it was the first start for him since May, and it is obvious that he needed the run. Secondly, CURREN KAKA does not like Nakayama Racecourse, where he ran four times and has never finished better than fourth. In contrast, Kyoto is his favorite racecourse, as he won two races and finished second for four times from nine starts there. I believe CURREN KAKA should run his race on Sunday.       

I understand the horse to beat for CURREN KAKA is KOMA BISHO, 4YO colt by EMPIRE MAKER. He won an allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 21st September, and the competition here is tougher than the previous start. However, he has placed in Listed race last year when he was 3YO and I believe he should be capable to compete in this class. And he won the allowance race by six lengths last time out, which is very impressive performance, and it looks he is in top form now, KOMA BISHO is my second chance.

I believe the dangerous horse for CURREN KAKA and KOMA BISHO is GREAT TIME, 4YO colt by KING KAMEHAMEHA. He is the second finisher in G3 Unicorn Stakes at Tokyo in June 2018. It is followed by another good effort, as he finished third in JPNG1 Japan Dirt Derby at Oi Racecourse in July 2018. It is no doubt that he has class to win here easily. The series of training setback forced him being away from racing and he has run only once in the last 14 months. Even if he is only 80% fit on Sunday, I think he should finish in first three.

QUICKFIRE, 4YO colt by HEART’S CRY, who finished fourth in an allowance race for three time winners at Niigata on 11th August, is my fourth choice.

And RED FREY, 4YO colt by GOLD ALLURE, who won an allowance race for two time winners at Niigata on 17th August, is my fifth choice. I believe both of them have chance to earn money on Sunday, if they reproduce the form of their previous starts.

SELECTIONS: 1. CURREN KAKA, 6. KOMA BISHO, 7. GREAT TIME, 8. QUICKFIRE & 3. RED FREY

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