 Expert - Patrick Payne | |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Caulfield Cup Day (S1-1 to S1-2) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Caulfield Cup
MER DE GLACE is an emerging star from Japan with compelling form. He has won his last five races including three G3 races in Japan. A rating of 109 puts him in elite company, even by Japan's lofty standards. He has the ability to quicken, which is a crucial attribute in any race, but especially at Caulfield Cup. Barrier 21 is a horror draw and he is going to need a great ride, but local jockey Damian Lane has ridden him in two of his last three wins. He is still the one to beat despite the barrier.
Lightly raced stayer VOW AND DECLARE nearly won the G1 Queensland Derby earlier in the year and then notched an impressive win in a moderate race before being rested. His return run two weeks ago at Flemington was excellent and Craig Williams to ride is a positive. He is a very exciting staying prospect and 116lbs brings him right into calculations. Barrier 9 is perfect for a horse that will settle midfield.
MIRAGE DANCER looms as an obvious winning chance. He profiles well for a 2,400m handicap having won three stakes races at the distance. It may pay to forgive his failure in Hong Kong because a post-race vet check revealed an irregular heart rhythmic. He was narrowly beaten by last year's Caulfield Cup winner BEST SOLUTION in a race last year. Barrier 13 is ideal for a horse that will settle back in the field.
Formerly trained by Aidan O'Brien, CONSTANTINOPLE is now with the Hayes partnership in Australia. He is a big, raw, gangly type and still learning his craft, but he should not be underestimated. He is lightly raced and has performed well in Ireland and Great Britain. He has been allocated 117lbs, which looks like a winning weight. Barrier 7 is perfect.
FINCHE looms as a major winning chance. His lead up form is excellent and he has the ability to race forward and still finish off strongly. His most recent run when second at Flemington was outstanding. His allocated weight of 120lbs looks attractive, so I expect him to be hard to beat. Barrier 19 makes things difficult for an on-pace horse on such a tight turning track.
Based on his Ebor Handicap win, MUSTAJEER has to be considered. He has been a slow maturing horse but a close examination of his form reveals he is well above average. The 2019 edition of the Ebor Handicap was significantly stronger than previous years. PRINCE OF ARRAN was well beaten in that race and he ran a super second last Saturday at Caulfield. Damien Oliver to ride is a bonus.
SELECTIONS: 3. MER DE GLACE, 14. VOW AND DECLARE, 2. MIRAGE DANCER, 11. CONSTANTINOPLE & 6. FINCHE
S1-2 Tristarc Stakes
BACCARAT BABY is a top quality filly brought down from Queensland by the talented trainer David Vandyke. She is first-up here and I am expecting a big performance. She handles any track conditions and seems sure to get a cosy run from barrier 3. She brings the best form into the race and will be hard to beat.
With the benefit of two recent runs, POHUTUKAWA probably has a fitness edge over BACCARAT BABY. Her form in Melbourne against top class mares was excellent in June, so expect her to be in the finish.
JAMAICAN RAIN could not be regarded as in the same class as BACCARAT BABY or POHUTUKAWA but this race lacks early speed and she may lead and get an easy run. If she does, then she has enough ability to win the race. She trialed nicely recently and the engagement of Ben Melham is a positive. Must be included.
SAVATIANO has form that includes good performances against POHUTUKAWA and INVINCIBELLA. Barrier 15 could be a negative, but if horses start making ground down the middle of the track then SAVATIANO must be included.
NAANTALI should be considered after her excellent first-up run at Flemington in a top class 1,200m race. She only finished 2.5 lengths behind sprint stars in SUNLIGHT and SANTA ANA LANE and that is excellent form for a restricted race like this. Barrier 4 should ensure she gets a cosy run, so must be respected.
SELECTIONS: 8. BACCARAT BABY, 7. POHUTUKAWA, 9. JAMAICAN RAIN, 6. SAVATIANO & 10. NAANTALI
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