 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for British Champions Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-3 British Champions Sprint Stakes
The G1 1,200m British Champions Sprint Stakes hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for favourite backers with only three leading fancies winning since the turn of the century.
Connections of this year’s market leader ADVERTISE will be hoping for better fortunes, especially given their colt’s impressive recent form. Having run well over 1,400m in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes at the end of the 2018 season, trainer Martyn Meade targeted the son of SHOWCASING at the G1 2000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket. He didn’t have the stamina for the 1,600m trip, however, and connections have reverted back to shorter distances since. That has proved a good move with G1 victories at Ascot and Deauville (over 1,200m and 1,300m respectively), while he ran well to finish second in the 1,200m G1 July Cup at Newmarket. Though he has never run on ground as soft as can be expected here, his trainer insists he’ll be fine on it and he is certainly one of the leading players.
Since finishing third to ADVERTISE in the aforementioned Ascot race, HELLO YOUMZAIN has run only once, a victory in the G1 Sprint Cup Stakes at Haydock over 1,200m. That win was his fourth win from seven career starts and there is surely plenty more improvement to come. He’s won on both soft and fast ground, so should be at home in any conditions, and looks a worthy contender.
Course form is always important at Ascot and with four wins and a second from seven starts at the track, CAPE BYRON must come into the reckoning. A gelding operation in 2018 seems to have worked wonders with the 5YO who has been ultra-consistent since. He began the season with back-to-back handicap wins at Ascot, over 1,200m and 1,400m, before finishing down the field in the aforementioned G1 July Cup at Newmarket. A solid run in the 1,400m G2 City Of York Stakes followed, before an impressive win in the G3 Bengough Stakes over course and distance last time, beating the likes of DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT. Soft ground didn’t seem to inconvenience him there, though that failure at G1 level earlier in the season has to be a slight concern.
It’s hard to fancy last year’s winner SANDS OF MALI based on recent form. Since his win 12 months ago, Richard Fahey’s 4YO has been seen just three times and not since finishing down the field in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes over 1,200m in June. A long absence since is a worry, but given he didn’t bring much form into last year’s race he could be dangerous to dismiss if back on song here.
ONE MASTER is dropping down to 1,200m, but the ground is going to be so testing that it will surely bring her stamina into play. William Haggas’ mare has a very good record with some give underfoot and she shouldn’t be underestimated.
Connections of MAKE A CHALLENGE have taken a brave step to supplement him for this race after an impressive 1,200m success at the Curragh last weekend, but this is by far the deepest field has ever encountered. He will certainly go on the soft ground, as is the case with previous winners of this race LIBRISA BREEZE and THE TIN MAN. They are two admirable sprinters, although there has to be a worry that their best days might be behind them.
SELECTIONS: 15. ONE MASTER, 11. ADVERTISE, 12. HELLO YOUMZAIN, 2. CAPE BYRON & 8. SANDS OF MALI
S1-4 British Champions Long Distance Cup
STRADIVARIUS will attempt to crown another superb season in the G2 Long Distance Cup over 3,115m. Britain’s top stayer landed a monster £1million bonus for winning the G2 Yorkshire Cup, the G1 Gold Cup, the G1 Goodwood Cup and the G2 Lonsdale Cup last season. This year he’s gone one better. After scooping the bank-busting bonus again for repeating that quartet of victories, he went on to add the G2 Doncaster Cup to his impressive haul of trophies. He is now considered one of the greatest European stayers of all time, joining the likes of SAGARO, LE MOSS, ARDROSS, DOUBLE TRIGGER and YEATS.
KEW GARDENS has only run three times this year. He was missing at the height of the season having finished second behind DEFOE in the G1 Coronation Cup at Epsom on Derby weekend. He won two G1s, including the St. Leger Stakes, last season and he has plenty of class. The step up to 3,115m for the first time should not be a problem, but the prospect of soft ground could be. Although he has won on a soft surface, it was as a 2YO, and all his best form has come on much faster ground.
ROYAL LINE will love the conditions. All of his four turf wins have come on easy ground and he took the step up in class to G3 in his stride when successful on Kempton’s polytrack last month. He’s not managed much racing but, if he is over his problems, Gosden has a very handy second string to back up STRADIVARIUS.
WITHHOLD has only made it to the track five times in the last two years but he’s shown he is a smart handicapper in winning three of those starts. He landed a big gamble when making all the running to win the Northumberland Plate on Newcastle’s tapeta track last year and he’s proved just as good on turf. His Newbury win over 3,300m in July was a great start to this season and he bolted up by six lengths from the front to land a Newmarket Listed prize last month. Roger Charlton’s 6YO has always promised to develop into a top-class stayer and he could be hard to pass if he gets an easy time of it on the lead.
MEKONG has got a bit of a hit-and-miss profile. He finished in midfield in the Ebor Handicap at York in August but his earlier form gives him a chance. His comeback second behind DEE EX BEE in Sandown’s G3 Henry II Stakes makes him a player and he has got plenty of form on testing ground. Ryan Moore gave him a strange ride when he was tailed-off last at York in June so, perhaps, some of his inconsistency can be explained.
CLEONTE has won on two of his last three visits to Ascot. The most recent of them came when he landed the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot over a stamina-sapping 4,330m. Lasting the trip clearly won’t be a problem, but his recent record suggests he might struggle to cope with the very testing ground.
SELECTIONS:8. STRADIVARIUS, 9. WITHHOLD, 7. ROYAL LINE, 4. KEW GARDENS & 6. MEKONG
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 8. STRADIVARIUS
Selections – 9. WITHHOLD, 7. ROYAL LINE, 4. KEW GARDENS & 6. MEKONG
S1-5: Banker – 11. STAR CATCHER
Selections – 12. TARNAWA, 6. FLEETING, 4. ANTONIA DE VEGA & 3. ANAPURNA
S1-5 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
Even though John Gosden has been responsible for the greatest filly in the world for the past three seasons in ENABLE, he’s only landed the G1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes once. JOURNEY was his sole winner back in 2016 and it’s Irishman Aidan O’Brien who has dominated the race since, fielding eight runners in the last two years and winning the race on both occasions. This year, however, Gosden appears to have a very strong chance of reclaiming this prize as he fields likely favourite STAR CATCHER. Last seen when landing the G1 Prix Vermeille over 2,400m, the daughter of SEA THE STARS showed both stamina and class to seal her second top-level victory, following on from her win in the G1 2,400m Irish Oaks in July. Runner up FLEETING chased home STAR CATCHER that day and, ridden by top jockey Frankie Dettori, she’s expected to be tough to pass once again.
If STAR CATCHER fails to fire, then Gosden also has G1 Oaks Stakes heroine ANAPURNA ready to pounce. The daughter of FRANKEL battled hard to hold off PINK DOGWOOD over 2,405m at Epsom with FLEETING a fast-finishing third. Though disappointing in the aforementioned G1 Prix Vermeille, where she could finish with two rivals behind her, ANAPURNA bounced back to form on very soft ground at ParisLongchamp a fortnight ago. That win in the G1 Prix de Royallieu came over 2,800m and William Buick may decide to make the running back down in trip to ensure this is a true stamina test. On her Oaks form she’d have a chance of being in the first three, but other fillies have been progressing well over the past four months or so.
One of those is FLEETING, who after producing a strong late run to finish third in the G1 Oaks Stakes at Epsom, has finished second to STAR CATCHER twice and flown the flag for O’Brien in America. Even though she’s yet to win this season, her form at G1 level is solid and she has every chance of picking up the pieces if STAR CATCHER runs below par.
A horse who’s had a much quieter season than most of the main protagonists is TARNAWA, trained by Dermot Weld. She was given almost three months off the track after finishing way down the field in the G1 Oaks Stakes, returning in August to comfortably win a G3 at Cork over 2,400m. The daughter of SHAMARDAL stepped up on that performance to win the G2 Blandford Stakes by a length and a half and she looks like a filly on an upward curve. Her trainer, Dermot Weld, has a good record on British Champions Day, having won this race in 2012, the British Champions Long Distance Cup twice (2012, 2014) and the Champion Stakes in 2015. Though TARNAWA will have to produce a career best, she comes into the race in great form and this may have been the plan with her all summer.
Of the others, ANTONIA DE VEGA should run well in the testing conditions and her trainer, Ralph Beckett, is having plenty of success at the moment. After a remarkable five-timer last Saturday, Beckett’s yard is red-hot and despite the fact she’s unproven at this level and been off the track for a while, she could step up massively.
SELECTIONS:11. STAR CATCHER, 12. TARNAWA, 6. FLEETING, 4. ANTONIA DE VEGA & 3. ANAPURNA
S1-6 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
With the rain continuing to fall in the week leading up to British Champions Day, it’s no surprise to see the money pour in for the French raider THE REVENANT. The progressive 4YO looks sure to relish conditions and any further rain would be a bonus, with four of his eight career wins coming on ground with soft, very soft or heavy in the description. The latest victory came in impressive fashion, with the Francis-Henri Graffard-trained runner landing the 1,600m G2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein at ParisLongchamp, winning by more than four lengths. He looks sure to go well and should take plenty of beating.
BENBATL had been a leading fancy for this contest since an impressive victory in the 1,600m G2 Joel Stakes at Newmarket last month, where he had the likes of KING OF COMEDY in behind. That was his first run in almost a year and his first in Britain since August 2018, with the son of DUBAWI being campaigned in Australia. He was victorious in the 2,000m G1 Caulfield Stakes, before finishing a very good second to WINX in the G1 Cox Plate over 2,040m. His win at Newmarket shows he’s still very much a force to be reckoned with, though connections must be concerned by the expected soft ground with his best form coming on a sounder surface.
Aidan O’Brien has won the race four times and he’ll be hoping his MAGNA GRECIA can bring up a fifth, making him the race’s joint-most winning trainer. The son of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT has always been highly regarded, particularly after his win in the 1,600m G1 Futurity Trophy at Doncaster at the end of last season. He then confirmed that promise when impressively taking the G1 2000 Guineas Stakes over the same distance, but he disappointed in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh. We haven’t seen the colt since, but if anyone can get a horse right for a big day after a long break it’s O’Brien and MAGNA GRECIA must be considered a contender.
John Gosden saddles KING OF COMEDY as he seeks to win the race for a third year in a row. The KINGMAN colt has done well this season, although his best win was success in the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown over 1,600m. He was then unlucky not to add a G1 to his name in the St. James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, where he hung left at a vital stage. He was soundly beaten by BENBATL on his most recent start at Newmarket and there must be slight reservations about the soft ground given he was turned over at odds-on as a 2YO on a similar surface.
One horse who should handle conditions well is David O’Meara’s LORD GLITTERS. The 6YO seems to come alive at Ascot with form figures of 212261, with his most notable success coming in this year’s G1 Queen Anne Stakes over 1,600m. He has been kept fresh for this since his last run in August and he could give the market leaders plenty to think about.
KING OF CHANGE looks the best of the rest. The 3YO was a surprise runner up to MAGNA GRECIA in the G1 2000 Guineas Stakes, but showed that was no fluke when a good winner of a 1,600m Listed race at Sandown 137 days later. This is a big step up in class, but he’s progressive and could surprise a few if he can improve again.
SELECTIONS: 8. THE REVENANT, 12. MAGNA GRECIA, 5. LORD GLITTERS, 2. BENBATL & 10. KING OF CHANGE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-6: Banker – 8. THE REVENANT
Selections – 12. MAGNA GRECIA, 5. LORD GLITTERS, 2. BENBATL & 10. KING OF CHANGE
S1-7: Banker – 3. CORONET
Selections – 6. MAGICAL, 4. DEIRDRE, 1. ADDEYBB & 7. FOX TAL
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 8. THE REVENANT, 12. MAGNA GRECIA & 5. LORD GLITTERS
S1-7: Multiple – 3. CORONET, 6. MAGICAL & 4. DEIRDRE
S1-8: Multiple – 12. CLON COULIS, 1. LORD NORTH & 6. ESCOBAR
S1-7 Champion Stakes
Aidan O’Brien has celebrated 349 Group or Grade 1 winners in his illustrious career. However, this hugely valuable British Champions Day showpiece, the richest 2,000m turf race in the world, is one of the few top table prizes to have eluded the record-breaking Irish trainer. So, can MAGICAL, the highest-rated runner in the race, succeed where such Coolmore stars such as FOUND, HIGHLAND REEL, RULER OF THE WORLD and SO YOU THINK all failed?
Underfoot conditions will be brutal after all the rain. But the fact that the feature has been transferred to the hurdles track, which was not watered throughout the summer, means that they will race on ground no worse than soft, as compared with heavy on the straight track. That has to be a plus for MAGICAL, who just 13 days ago finished fifth in the prestigious G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in France. MAGICAL has been a globetrotting superstar these last three years and bounced back to form when winning the G1 Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. She paid the penalty in Paris for matching pace with the leaders in what was a suicidal early gallop, but ridden more patiently here has to be a big player again.
With no ENABLE in the field, MAGICAL and CORONET, who were 1-2 in last year’s G1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, both now take on the colts with solid chances. CORONET has the advantage of being the fresher, having just had the three runs this year. She finally shrugged off that bridesmaid tag when winning her first G1 at Saint-Cloud in June and then promptly doubled her tally at the top level in the mud at Deauville. Granted, she has an ungainly head-carriage, but there is no doubting CORONET’s resolution, and Frankie Dettori, who has won on 11 of his 40 rides at his beloved Ascot this season, knows the mare so well.
A quagmire would holds no fears for ADDEYBB, but his trainer, William Haggas, admits that soft going is not soft enough. He wants it almost unraceable, so his chance has been lessened by the switch to the inside track. Furthermore, he has flopped in two previous runs in G1 company, and, though he looked good at Royal Ascot and Haydock, I would be more keen on ADDEYBB making a splash if they had not switched tracks.
Japanese challenger DEIRDRE has been lodging with Haggas in Newmarket since Ascot, and she has looked a quality mare all summer. An impressive winner at big odds from MEHDAAYIH in the G1 Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, DEIRDRE showed that was no fluke when an unlucky fourth behind MAGICAL at Leopardstown. MAGICAL had the run of the race that day, whereas DEIRDRE was hemmed in most of the way up the straight and when she finally escaped the favourite was beyond recall. DEIRDRE would definitely have finished second and might well have won.
MEHDAAYIH, who would have been placed in the G1 Oaks Stakes had she not been repeatedly hampered, will struggle to reverse the Goodwood form with DEIRDRE, having since run disappointingly when favourite for the Prix de l’Opera at ParisLongchamp on Arc day.
Best of the rest could be Doncaster winner FOX TAL, who was supplemented into the race at a cost of £75,000 having won a 2,039m conditions race at Doncaster last month in fine style.
SELECTIONS: 3. CORONET, 6. MAGICAL, 4. DEIRDRE, 1. ADDEYBB & 7. FOX TAL
S1-8 Balmoral Handicap
The star-studded card is wrapped up with a 1,600m charge down Ascot’s straight course in the Balmoral Handicap. It went to subsequent G1 winner LORD GLITTERS two years ago and last season’s victor, SHARJA BRIDGE, also went on to be successful in a higher grade. This year’s race is an intriguing mixture of reliable old favourites and improving 3YOs, making it a fascinating end to a superb six-race meeting.
LORD NORTH is sure to be strong in the betting market having run away with the 30-runner Cambridgeshire Stakes at Newmarket three weeks ago. John Gosden’s well-bred 3YO cruised through the race, one of Britain’s top handicaps, and had little trouble mowing down BERINGER up the final climb to the winning post. He has the potential to develop into a horse capable of winning races in a much higher grade, so he has to be respected in this handicap, but 3YOs have yet to win this race since it was moved to the British Champions Day card five years ago.
KYNREN has been incredibly consistent this season. He kicked off this season by finishing second in the 1,600m handicap in March and he’s not been out of the frame in five subsequent runs. His consistency was rewarded when he was successful over 1,400m on Ascot’s straight course two weeks ago. He obviously stays today’s longer distance fine and he has a particular liking for soft ground. David Barron’s hope was only fifth in this race 12 months ago but it’s not hard to argue he has improved over the last year. It’s easy to make a strong case for him so he has to come into the final calculations.
CLON COULIS likes this track. She won a Listed fillies’ race here last year and she returned to finish a nose second in the 1,600m Royal Hunt Cup in June. The ground was on the soft side that day and she hasn’t had many chances to show what she can do when conditions are testing. Things have not gone to plan for her since Royal Ascot but she has had excuses. Her jockey Jamie Spencer is a master at riding this straight course so CLON COULIS has plenty going for her.
ESCOBAR was nailed by SHARJA BRIDGE close home when runner-up in this race last year. He’s run well over 1,400m at Ascot on his last two starts, while he’s just as good over 1,600m, so could easily be involved in the finish again.
KICK ON started the season with Classic hopes. He came up short in the 1,600m G1 2000 Guineas Stakes and the 2,100m G1 Prix du Jockey Club, but he found his form again when narrowly holding off top-class miler ACCIDENTAL AGENT in a G3 at Salisbury over 1,600m. This big-field handicap is a different test but this classy 3YO has to be considered given the drop in class.
Aidan O’Brien’s AMEDEO MODIGLIANI looked a great prospect when winning at Galway over 1,666m as a 2YO in 2017. He missed the whole of last year, though, and his first two runs of this season were not particularly promising. His return from a six-month break was much more like it as he got no sort of run when finishing fourth at Cork 18 days ago. This race comes quick enough but he does look well-handicapped.
SELECTIONS: 12. CLON COULIS, 1. LORD NORTH, 6. ESCOBAR, 3. KYNREN & 14. AMEDEO MODIGLIANI
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