 Expert - Patrick Payne | |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Melbourne Cup Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Schweppervescence Plate
This race is run down the 1,000m straight track and generally middle to outside barriers are an advantage and GARNER is a great chance. His recent form is strong – he has won two of his last three starts, both over this trip – and is drawn to advantage in barrier 14.
CAN’T BE DONE profiles well from the in form Danny O’Brien stable. He has fresh-up form and is also drawn out wide. Handles all types of ground.
SANTORINI SUMMER is a lightly raced and has a win over GARNER to its credit, albeit four months ago when they were 2YOs. This speedy gelding hasn't raced since but the Mark Kavanagh stable is starting to fire and this would be a target race. Craig Williams to ride is a bonus.
HAWKER HURRICANE has to be considered after a narrow defeat up the Flemington straight a month ago over 1,100m, but barrier 1 is a negative.
From the powerful Hayes partnership, ESPINOLA must also be respected first-up. It has experience down the straight, running over the course on debut when unplaced but not disgraced, and barrier 13 is ideal.
SELECTIONS: 4. GARNER, 3. CAN’T BE DONE, 5. SANTORINI SUMMER, 2. HAWKER HURRICANE & 7. ESPINOLA
S1-2 Maybe Mahal Stakes
In an evenly graded mares race, VICTORY KINGDOM looks hard to beat, especially with Joao Moreira booked to ride. She seems sure to press forward and get her chance.
SWEET SCANDAL profiles to settle third or fourth and is a definite danger. Her recent form is excellent for this race.
BELLA MARTINI is ideally drawn in barrier 2 and seems assured of a cosy run just behind the speed. She must be included.
INTO THE ABYSS was disappointing last start but I would ignore that and go on her previous solid form in similar classed races.
KINGS BROOK should be included because it has strong Flemington form. The speed map looks a little awkward for her but she is a quality mare.
SELECTIONS: 9. VICTORY KINGDOM, 4. SWEET SCANDAL, 3. BELLA MARTINI, 7. INTO THE ABYSS & 5. KINGS BROOK
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 9. VICTORY KINGDOM
Selections – 4. SWEET SCANDAL, 3. BELLA MARTINI, 7. INTO THE ABYSS & 5. KINGS BROOK
S1-3: Banker – 2. MER DE GLACE
Selections – 1. CROSS COUNTER, 4. MIRAGE DANCER, 19. CONSTANTINOPLE & 8. MUSTAJEER
S1-3 Melbourne Cup
MER DE GLACE was a brilliant winner of the recent G1 Caulfield Cup and I see little reason why he can’t pull off the double. Its form during 2019 in Japan was that of an emerging star and it certainly justified it’s high rating with a stunning win at Caulfield.
CROSS COUNTER won this race in 2018 and despite being heavily penalized by the handicapper, the all-conquering Godolphin team has decided to defend his crown. He must be respected.
CONSTANTINOPLE looms as a great chance following an outstanding run in the G1 Caulfield Cup when nothing went right from 800m and he suffered significant interference. He still found the line strongly. The spacious track at Flemington is expected to be much more to his liking. Seems to race best when away from the rails.
LATROBE is an interesting runner. He is trained by Joseph O’Brien and profiles well having been lightly raced. He has strong European form through 2018 and 2019. The key form reference might be his unlucky second at weight-for-age level last spring in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes.
IL PARADISO has caught my eye at the quarantine center. He is a lovely type and has been impressive in his work. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, he fits the profile of a Cup winner; lightly raced, top trainer, light weight (116lbs), so he commands great respect.
SURPRISE BABY is Australia’s great hope following a meteoric rise to prominence in 2019. It won a significant qualifying race a few weeks ago and is going into the Cup without another run. Barrier draw is important and chances improve if it is wet.
VOW AND DECLARE is another Australian galloper with an undeniable chance. All his form in staying races is very strong and he showed that he can match it with stars like MER DE GLACE by running second in the G1 Caulfield Cup.
MIRAGE DANCER, FINCHE and MUSTAJEER probably make up the list of obvious chances. All of them ran well in the G1 Caulfield Cup and profile well for the G1 Melbourne Cup.
SELECTIONS: 2. MER DE GLACE, 1. CROSS COUNTER, 4. MIRAGE DANCER, 19. CONSTANTINOPLE & 8. MUSTAJEER
S1-4 Melbourne Cup Day Plate
JUNIPAL appeals to me with 119lbs. He has strong recent form around CASCADIAN and DEALMAKER, and the spacious Flemington track suits. Settles back in field but barrier 3 is still helpful.
LOOKS LIKE ELVIS looks a great chance. All his best form seems to be at 1,800m or shorter distances. Maps well from barrier 5 and must be included.
The ‘WINX team’ of trainer Chris Waller and jockey Hugh Bowman combine with SO YOU WIN, who brings strong recent form. Barrier 12 is a negative and hasn't won for nearly five months, but all his recent runs suggest another big performance here.
YULONG PRINCE is an interesting runner. He is probably the most talented horse in the race and it is worth noting that he has blinkers first time.
A SHIN ROOK seems sure to be competitive with 119lbs and barrier 2. Tommy Berry to ride is a positive.
SELECTIONS: 17. JUNIPAL, 11. LOOKS LIKE ELVIS, 8. SO YOU WIN, 2. YULONG PRINCE & 15. A SHIN ROOK
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 17. JUNIPAL
Selections – 11. LOOKS LIKE ELVIS, 8. SO YOU WIN, 2. YULONG PRINCE & 15. A SHIN ROOK
S1-5: Banker – 10. SMART COUPE
Selections – 2. TACTICAL ADVANTAGE, 13. MORE THAN EXCEED, 3. HAUNTED & 6. PARSIFAL
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 17. JUNIPAL, 11. LOOKS LIKE ELVIS & 8. SO YOU WIN
S1-5: Multiple – 10. SMART COUPE, 2. TACTICAL ADVANTAGE & 13. MORE THAN EXCEED
S1-6: Multiple – 4. PRETTY BRAZEN, 5. XILONG & 11. CALIFORNIA SALTO
S1-5 MSS Security Sprint
Last start winner SMART COUPE profiles well here. She was super impressive last start and has strong form down the Flemington straight. Craig Williams and barrier 13 up the straight are both positives.
TACTICAL ADVANTAGE has to be considered. His best form would see him hard to beat. Both his recent runs have been better than they read in the form guide. Damien Oliver to ride is a bonus.
MORE THAN EXCEED has been in great form in lesser quality races in which he has carried big weights. Ideally drawn out wide, so has to be considered.
HAUNTED has to be included with Kerrin McEvoy to ride. Both are in good form, although barrier 3 is probably not ideal.
PARSIFAL, MILWAUKEE and INTUITION all have chances in a very even race, but I am leaning to those horses drawn out wide.
SELECTIONS: 10. SMART COUPE, 2. TACTICAL ADVANTAGE, 13. MORE THAN EXCEED, 3. HAUNTED & 6. PARSIFAL
S1-6 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes
PRETTY BRAZEN is likely to get back from her wide barrier but is a class act. The likelihood of a solid tempo should suit. Hard to beat.
In a deep, high-quality race, XILONG creates great interest following a stunning win last start beating the well credentialed GARNER by five lengths at 1,200m. The extra 200m here is the big query.
The Snowden stable have two great chances in CALIFORNIA SALTO and MAYAASEH both are progressive, well-bred types and map to get ideal runs around midfield. Both must be respected.
BETCHA FLYING is a promising type drawn to get a cosy run. Must be respected.
AKARI is flying, as is SOPHIA’S CHOICE, both will need luck from wide gates on a course where barriers matter.
SELECTIONS: 4. PRETTY BRAZEN, 5. XILONG, 11. CALIFORNIA SALTO, 6. BETCHA FLYING & 2. AKARI
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