Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Japan Cup Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 2yo Newcomer

The final maiden for unraced 2YOs at the autumn meeting at Tokyo Racecourse. As the feature race of the day is Japan Cup, many more first class jockeys are available on the day and trainers tend to send their talented young horse, whom they expect a lot, to the maiden on Japan Cup Day. Hence, maiden races on Japan Cup Day are always very competitive and this maiden is a good example.

My first choice is MAWSON PEAK, who has been impressive in the morning. He was breezed on Wednesday and his training partner was older horse who belongs to Listed class. MAWSON PEAK shown strong spirit and did not lose the battle against the older horse. I have had the impression from the breeze that he should have quick turn of foot, and he has also matured mentally. I understand he is horse with class and believe he will make successful racecourse debut on Sunday.

I think the horse to beat for MAWSON PEAK is BARTOLI, owned by Godolphin and trained by Kazuo Fujisawa, one of leading trainers based at Miho Training Center. Fujisawa regards the filly very highly and describes her as a future star. It is usual training menu at Fujisawa Stable that young horses are not breezed too hard, while they are given a lot of steady works. I believe BARTOLI is ready to run now. Her dam had very good speed and I believe the daughter should have good finishing speed. She is my second choice.

SWORD LINE is regarded highly by Noriyuki Hori, another master trainer based at Miho Training Center. He looks to become good middle distance horse in future, and Hori thinks SWORD LINE should be his Derby runner in 2020. He has been given 600m breeze for many times and final piece of serious workout on Wednesday was impressive. He was settled very well and responded immediately as the rider asked him to stretch. And Ryan Moore is booked for him on Sunday. He is my third choice.

SUAVE SEALS is trained by Mitsugu Kon at Ritto Training Center near Kyoto, and Kon selects this race for SUAVE SEALS, as he thinks Tokyo is more suitable track for him than Kyoto. It means Kon reckons SUAVE SEALS should have good late kick. He has been trained well at Ritto and it is obvious he is now ready to run. SUAVE SEALS is my fourth choice.

I am impressed with DANON SERESTA, when he moves from Northern Farm to Ritto Training Center and was sent to uphill track at Ritto for the first time. He clocked 53.1 seconds for 800m and 13.1 seconds for final 200m. They are excellent times as a 2YO who has never been to uphill track before. He looks like typical progeny by HEART’S CRY and I believe Tokyo is suitable track for him. And he is ridden by Frankie Dettori. DANON SERESTA is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 7. MAWSON PEAK, 4. BARTOLI, 15. SWORD LINE, 9. SUAVE SEALS & 10. DANON SERESTA

S1-2 3yo and up 1 win

This is the allowance race for one time winners over 1,400m on dirt at Tokyo. The races of this distance at this course tend to be slowly run races, and miler type enjoys more success than sprinter type.

My first pick is DYNAMIDEN, who has won the novice over 1,700m at Sapporo last year. His recent form shows he should be competitive here, as he finished fourth in allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 16th September, when he covered final 600m for 36.3 seconds, which was the fastest among 13 runners, and he finished second in allowance race for one time winners at Tokyo on 27th October, when he covered final 600m for 36.5 seconds, which was the second fastest among 16 runners, despite he had traffic problem at the top of homestretch. If he runs his race on Sunday, I am quite confident that he wins this race.

The horse to beat for DYNAMIDEN is GRADUATE, who has won the novice at Tokyo last year. He was beaten fifth in allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 22nd September, but he was boxed in at the crucial stage of race and must have finished second or third if he had clear traffic. GRADUATE was given short break since last race and looks to be fresh now. He is my second choice.

YANCHA PRE HIME is my third choice. Since she graduated novice class, she struggled to compete in the class for one time winners. However, her recent form proves that she is improving now. And she ran well last time out finishing second in allowance race for one time winners at Tokyo on 10th November, when she covered final 600m for 35.9 seconds, which was the co-fastest among 16 runners. My concern is weather and track condition on Sunday, because she does not like wet ground.

HO O MONTEREY likes this course and distance, as she picked up her first win here on November 2018, and has been placed twice in the race on dirt at Tokyo. She has good acceleration to show on homestretch and her final breeze in prior to this race at Miho Training Center was impressive. She leaves starting gate slowly occasionally, and she should have good chance to earn money on Sunday, provided she starts quickly. HO O MONTEREY is my fourth choice.

PTAH was beaten thirteenth in allowance race for one time winners at Tokyo on 15th June, despite he was supported as the 7 to 2 favourite, and it was found through post-race veterinarian check that he bled during the race. He was given five months break since then, and all is back to normal as far as I see him in training in the morning. He has finished second twice in allowance race for one time winners and should have ability to perform well here. PTAH is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 10. DYNAMIDEN, 11. GRADUATE, 14. YANCHA PRE HIME, 5. HO O MONTEREY & 13. PTAH

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 10. DYNAMIDEN
          Selections – 11. GRADUATE, 14. YANCHA PRE HIME, 5. HO O MONTEREY & 13. PTAH
S1-3: Banker – 6. MI AMANTE
          Selections – 5. RED RAIDEN, 7. RUSH UP, 2. ONE SKY & 1. JUN LIGHT BOLT

S1-3 Begonia Sho

Begonia Sho is the stakes race for 2YOs who has won one race so far. DANON PLATINA and SATONO ARES, winner of the Begonia Sho in 2014 and 2016 respectively, were both going to win the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes at Nakayama next start and awarded as Champion 2YO colt of the year.

I assess there are two horses who have potential to become champion in the field of this year’s Begonia Sho, and one of them is MI AMANTE by KING KAMEHAMEHA, the decisive winner of Maiden at Nakayama on 16th September, when the track listed as soft, which is quite tough circumstances for the smallish unraced filly. Moreover, she jumped from outside barrier and was forced to be settled at ninth position in 15 runners’ field, where she got a lot of wet kick back. However, she was not discouraged at all and delivered the strongest challenge on homestretch to win by three lengths. It is ultra-impressive performance. And she is sixth foal out of MI SUENO, winner of the G1 event, and I believe she is capable to beat colts on Sunday. She is my first choice.

The horse to beat for MI AMANTE is RED RAIDEN by EISHIN FLASH. When he was beaten fifth in maiden at Tokyo on 15th October, he looked still very green and he did not know what he should do at racecourse. However, he was different horse at his second outing, which was the novice over the same course and distance as Begonia Sho on 2nd November. RED RAIDEN was well settled at fourth position in 14 runners’ field and draw clear to win by two lengths. Christophe Soumillon, who rode RED RAIDEN commented after the race ‘I did not use whip at all and he won easily. He has very bright future’. He is my second choice.

My third choice is RUSH UP by VICTOIRE PISA, winner of maiden over the same course and distance as Begonia Sho on 5th October. He is the second foal out of NOBLE JEWELRY, winner of six races at JRA, and is half-brother to NOBLE CULLINAN, who is the second finisher in List race. It is attractive that Frankie Dettori is booked for him on Sunday.

ONE SKY, 2YO colt by SWEPT OVERBOARD, is my fourth choice. He was third in an open stakes at Kyoto on 12th October, ridden by young jockey, while William Buick is booked for him on Sunday.

And JUN LIGHT BOLT, 2YO colt by KING KAMEHAMEHA, who finished third in the allowance race for 2YO one time winners at Kyoto on 13th October, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 6. MI AMANTE, 5. RED RAIDEN, 7. RUSH UP, 2. ONE SKY & 1. JUN LIGHT BOLT

S1-4 Oriental Sho

Oriental Sho is the stakes for two time winners, over 1,800m turf course at Tokyo. The closers tend to enjoy success at this course and distance at Tokyo and I understand I should select the horses, who have sharp late kick.

I reckon the most reliable betting choice on Sunday at Tokyo is PEACE ONE PARADIS. First of all, the 3YO colt has class, as he is the third finisher in the G2 Aoba Sho earlier this year. After having five months summer break, PEACE ONE PARADIS finished second in the allowance race for two time winners, beaten by half a length at Niigata on 5th October, when he covered final 600m for 32.8 seconds, the quickest among seven runners. And PEACE ONE PARADIS finished third in the allowance race for two time winners, beaten by head, at Tokyo on 27th October, when he covered the final 600m for 32.7 seconds, the quickest among eight runners. He is by JUNGLE POCKET and sire of sire is TONY BIN. Both of them have got the reputation that the progeny loves the track at Tokyo. And Christophe Soumillon is booked for PEACE ONE PARADIS on Sunday. I am quite confident to select him as my first choice here.

My second choice is ASTRA CENT ANS. It is quite simple for me to select this 4YO filly, as her recent form shows she should be competitive here. She finished second in the last three starts, all of which are allowance races for two time winners. Her latest start was at Tokyo on 27th October, when she was beaten nose and defeated PEACE ONE PARADIS. And it is key factor that Frankie Dettori is booked for the filly by HEART’S CRY on Sunday.

Another horse who has been running at this class consistently is CAUCUS, 5YO by STREET SENSE. He has started six times so far this season, finished second twice and third once. And he has finished within four lengths behind the winner at all six starts. Although this is the first start for him since 1st September, I have got positive report from Ritto Training Center. He is my third choice.

ALMIRENA is also consistent at this class, finishing within first three in the last four starts. The 5YO mare by DEEP IMPACT likes Tokyo Racecourse, as she has collected her all three wins at Tokyo. The mare ridden by Oisin Murphy on Sunday is my fourth choice.

While NISHINO KATSUNARI is one time winner, I believe he can compete well in this race for two time winners level, as he has finished fourth in the G3 Arlington Cup in April, the 3YO colt by RULERSHIP is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 1. PEACE ONE PARADIS, 7. ASTRA CENT ANS, 4. CAUCUS, 12. ALMIRENA & 2. NISHINO KATSUNARI

S1-5 Shangrila Sho

Shangrila Sho is the stakes race for two time winners over 1,400m of dirt course at Tokyo. 

FOSSAMAGNA, who finished second in allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 27th October, is my first choice. His last start is a good reference to Shangrila Sho. That was taken place over the same course and distance. Although it was the first time for him to compete on dirt, the 3YO has proved that he is suitable for the competition. That was also his first start since April, and he should be much fitter on coming Sunday. I understand why the trainer Kazuo Fujisawa, to select the races on turf for him, as his sire WAR FRONT has sent a lot of good winners on turf, such as U S NAVY FLAG and AIR FORCE BLUE, both of which won the G1 Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket and were awarded as Champion 2YO colt, and DECLARATION OF WAR who won the G1 Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot and the G1 International Stakes at York. In fact, FOSSAMAGNA won two races on turf and finished fourth in the G3 Kyodo News Hai. On the other hand, it was also understandable that Fujisawa tried to send him on dirt, as WAR FRONT himself is the winner of the G2 event on dirt. The switch of surface worked well, and I believe FOSSAMAGNA should be Graded Stakes performer at dirt division in Japan in near future.

The horse to beat for FOSSAMAGNA is LEMBRANCA, who has finished second in allowance race for two time winners at Hakodate in July. I regard this performance highly, because she failed to leave the starting gate quickly, left at the rear of 12 runners’ field, and got a lot of kick back. And then, she made up much ground, covering the final 600m for 37.7 seconds, which was the quickest among 12 runners there. Hakodate is not favourable track for the closers, as the homestretch there is very short, while Tokyo has much longer homestretch. Although she has not raced since August, she has been trained well at Ritto in the morning and I believe she is ready to run her race. LEMBRANCA is my second choice.

PEISHA NEGANO is my third choice, as she runs creditably in the last two starts, both of which are over the same course and distance as Shangrila Sho. She finished second in allowance race for two time winners, beaten by head at Tokyo on 3rd November, and finished third in allowance race for two time winners, beaten by head at Tokyo on 17th November. While this is the fourth start in five weeks for her, it looks she is still keeping her energy. 

I AM HAYASUGIRU, who finished fourth in allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 22nd September is my fourth choice, as it is attractive that Oisin Murphy is booked for him on Sunday.

And KAMINOKO, who has finished third in allowance race for two time winners over 1,400m on dirt at Chukyo in July, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 1. FOSSAMAGNA, 3. LEMBRANCA, 6. PEISHA NEGANO, 4. I AM HAYASUGIRU & 11. KAMINOKO

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker– 1. FOSSAMAGNA
          Selections – 3. LEMBRANCA, 6. PEISHA NEGANO, 4. I AM HAYASUGIRU & 11. KAMINOKO
S1-6: Banker – 12. INTRUSE
          Selections – 7. CHANTILLY ROSA, 13. ADMIRE SQUALL, 9. BURRINGURRAH & 15. ULILI

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 1. FOSSAMAGNA, 3. LEMBRANCA & 6. PEISHA NEGANO
S1-6: Multiple – 12. INTRUSE, 7. CHANTILLY ROSA & 13. ADMIRE SQUALL
S1-7: Multiple – 11. CHEVAL GRAND, 5. SUAVE RICHARD & 1. CURREN BOUQUETD'OR

S1-6 Welcome Stakes

Welcome Stakes is the race for three time winners over 1,800m turf course at Tokyo. As I mentioned in the analysis in Oriental Sho, the horses are required to have brilliant late kick to enjoy success at this course and distance.

INTRUSE, who won the Begonia Sho on Japan Cup Day twelve months ago, is my first choice. He graduated the class for two time winners at Tokyo on 9th June, when he won by three lengths. Since then, he competed in the class for three time winners twice and performed well in both races. He finished third in allowance race at Niigata on 31st August, when he covered final 600m for 33.2 seconds, which was the quickest among 12 runners. And he finished third again in another allowance race at Tokyo on 27th October, when he covered the final 600m for 33.0 seconds, which was the quickest among nine runners. He has class, he has sharp acceleration, and he likes Tokyo Racecourse, where he collected all his three wins so far. And Yutaka Take, super jockey in Japan, is booked for him on Sunday.        

CHANTILLY ROSA, who has been competitive at the class for three time winners, is my second choice. She finished third in allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as Welcome Stakes in February, when she covered the final 600m for 33.1 seconds which is the quickest among 15 runners. Then she finished third again in allowance race for three time winners at Hanshin in June, and finished second in the allowance race for three time winners at Kyoto on 19th October, when she covered the final 600m for 33.9 seconds, which is the quickest among ten runners. While the 5YO by DANON CHANTILLY has never won at anticlockwise track, I believe the long homestretch at Tokyo should suit her.

Though ADMIRE SQUALL has just graduated the class for two time winners, as he won the allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 15th September, he has finished fifth in the G3 Radio Nikkei Sho at Fukushima in June, when he was only two and a quarter lengths behind the winner. I believe he can be competitive at this class and the 3YO colt by DEEP BRILLANTE is my third choice.

BURRINGURRAH, who started at Tokyo for three times and won two of them, including the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 5th October, when he covered the final 600m for 33.1 seconds, the quickest among seven runners, is my fourth choice.

And ULILI, who has finished second in the G3 Mainichi Hai in March, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 12. INTRUSE, 7. CHANTILLY ROSA, 13. ADMIRE SQUALL, 9. BURRINGURRAH & 15. ULILI

S1-7 Japan Cup

The 39th running of G1 Japan Cup does not include any international challenger. It is the first time for the icon of horse racing in Japan, which was inaugurated in 1981 as the first international race taken place in Japan, to carry no international flavor. It is obvious that the connections of top class 2,000m to 2,400m horses prefer to run in the G1 Hong Kong Cup or the G1 Hong Kong Vase two weeks later at Sha Tin. All of runners in the field are Japanese-trained horses, though, it has depth, for example there are three Tokyo Yushun winners, and I am sure it is exciting renewal.

My first pick is CHEVAL GRAND, winner of this race in 2017. The 7YO horse had European campaign this summer, after finishing second in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March, and failed to get results expected. However, there are excuses. The ground was too soft when he finished sixth in the G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. And there was no pace at all and the distance was too short when he finished eighth in the G1 International Stakes at York. Tokyo is his favourite track, where he won two races and finished within first four at all four starts so far. And it is very encouraging factor that Christophe Soumillon is booked for him. Soumillon has won the Japan Cup in 2014, ridding EPIPHANEIA, and we have just seen his excellent riding performance on 10th November at Kyoto where he won the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup, riding LUCKY LILAC. 

My second choice is SUAVE RICHARD, another HEART’S CRY horse in the field. Though he has won the G1 Osaka Hai over 2,000m at Hanshin, where is clockwise track, I believe 2,400m is more suitable for him and he handles anticlockwise track better. In fact, he ran well in last year’s Japan Cup, finishing third, where CHEVAL GRAND was a quarter of length behind him. And as like CHEVAL GRAND, it is encouraging factor that Oisin Murphy, current season’s Champion jockey in Britain, is booked for him on Sunday.

It is remarkable statistic that six out of last ten running of Japan Cup were won by fillies or mares. Though it might be too early to compare CURREN BOUQUETD'OR with the those fillies or mares who won Japan Cup, such as VODKA, BUENA VISTA, GENTILDONNA and ALMOND EYE, I believe the 3YO filly by DEEP IMPACT is talented horse. She was narrowly beaten second in the G1 Yushun Himba, over the same course and distance as Japan Cup. After finishing second again in the G1 Shuka Sho, she skipped the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup, for fillies and mares, on 10th November at Kyoto, and is heading to run Japan Cup instead. She is my third choice.

WAGNERIAN is the G1 Tokyo Yushun winner in 2018, and the lightly-raced 4YO colt by DEEP IMPACT finished fifth in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn last time out. It was not bad effort, and extra 400m should help him to perform better on Sunday. He is my fourth choice.

Recent form of REY DE ORO is not very good, however, he is the winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun in 2017 and the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn in 2018, both of which took place at Tokyo, and I think we should not neglect him. The 5YO horse ridden by William Buick is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 11. CHEVAL GRAND, 5. SUAVE RICHARD, 1. CURREN BOUQUETD'OR, 2. WAGNERIAN & 8. REY DE ORO

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