Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Arima Kinen Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1     2yo 1 win

This is the allowance race for 2YO who has won one race so far. While it is the race at dirt track, the runners run on turf for 100m from the start, and the pace of race tends to be strong. On the other hand, the horses who track leaders run better than closers at this course. And a little rain is expected on Sunday at the area of Nakayama Racecourse and the dirt track could be quick. I believe we should select the horses preferring quick ground.

My first choice is AURORA TESORO. Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, who trains the 2YO colt by MALIBU MOON, selected the races on turf for him at first, but he lost four races in a row. Hatakeyama changed his mind and send him to race on dirt.  It worked well. AURORA TESORO won maiden at Tokyo by seven lengths on 5th October, covering the final 600m for 36.7 seconds, the quickest of 13 runners. After that, he participated in the allowance race for 2YO one time winners at Tokyo on 23rd November. Unfortunately, the pace was furiously strong and his tank became empty at the middle of homestretch. It looks there is no other speed horse in this field and the pace should be comfortable for him. I believe he has good chance to win.

My second choice is EMPTY CHAIR, who finished second in the allowance race for 2YO one time winners at Hanshin on 8th December. It was his second attempt at this class and I reckon it was good effort. I believe he is able to track AURORA TESORO comfortably. And it is no doubt that he has action of sprinters and 1,200m is his best trip. 

My third choice is VENT DE MER, who is out of EBISU ALL, winner of three races on dirt between 1,150m to 1,300m. The dam was fast, and her son is as fast as his mother. This was proved by his performance in the allowance race for 2YO one time winners at Nakayama on 1st December, when he finished second. In fact, he was bumped by others soon after the break, and he should have run better if he had uneventful trip. He wore “sheepskin cheek pieces” for the first time in previous start and it seemed to work well. I believe he has good chance to finish within first three.  

My fourth choice is WIEN SONATA, who won maiden for unraced 2YOs over the same course and distance as this race on 14th September by three and a half lengths. It was very impressive performance. He was disappointing twelfth in the JPN G3 event at Monbetsu on 10th October. However, it was first time for her to run under floodlights, which she did not like. She has been working well in the morning at Miho Training Center and should run her race on Sunday.    

And my fifth choice is PUDDING SAN, who won the maiden over the same course and distance as this race on 16th September. She was well beaten last time out, but she could not act on turf. She is much better on dirt.

SELECTIONS: 8. AURORA TESORO, 7. EMPTY CHAIR, 9. VENT DE MER, 11. WIEN SONATA & 2. PUDDING SAN

S1-2     3yo and up 1 win

The dirt track at Nakayama at current December meeting is as light as it was in September. The time tends to be quicker than standard, and I guess the winning time of this race would be 1 minutes and 55 seconds or more.  

My first choice is RORQUAL ROUGE. He finished fifth in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race in January. It was really competitive race and I felt it should be easy for him to graduate this class. However, he had wind problem and took six months off to have surgery. He returned at racecourse on 24th November, when he finished eighth in the allowance race for one time winners. He has been trained very well at Miho Training Center since then. I understand the 3YO colt is coming back at the peak condition, and is ready to show his true ability on Sunday.

My second choice is WONDER MAMBO, who has been running consistently at this class, finishing within first five in last seven starts. I believe she is suitable horse to run at current dirt track, which is light and quick. And she always tries very hard until the end of race and finished fourth in the allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 30th November. I believe she has good chance to finish within first two on Sunday.

My third choice is FLY ALL DAYS. He could not handle turf course at Fukushima and finished fourteenth in the allowance race for one time winners on 16th November. He was different horse two weeks later, when he finished third in the allowance race for one time winners on 1st December, when he handled the dirt surface at Chukyo very well. He clocked 1 minute and 53.5 seconds, which is quicker than standard time. Though this is the first time for him to run at Nakayama, I believe he likes the surface there.     

My fourth choice is KEISER’S KROON. Although he has not run since 3rd August, his breeze last week was impressive and I am sure he is ready to run. He is out of ICE FOLLIES, who finished third in the G1 Yushun Himba, and this well-bred gelding is now improving. Though he has won maiden on turf, I believe he can act on dirt as well as on turf. This horse should have potential to graduate this class easily.

My fifth choice is AD ASTRA, who finished fourth in the allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 1st December, when he had traffic problem on homestretch. He has good finishing speed and can use it tactically.

SELECTIONS: 3. RORQUAL ROUGE, 13. WONDER MAMBO, 16. FLY ALL DAYS, 7. KEISER’S KROON & 14. AD ASTRA

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 3. RORQUAL ROUGE
Selections – 13. WONDER MAMBO, 16. FLY ALL DAYS, 7. KEISER’S KROON & 14. AD ASTRA
S1-3: Banker – 11. SATONO RADIUS
Selections – 10. CARO BAMBINA, 12. BOZZHIRA, 3. DREAM SPIRIT & 8. TREASURE TROVE

S1-3     Goodluck Handicap

I believe this year’s Goodluck Handicap, stakes race for two time winners over the same course and distance as Arima Kinen, is exciting renewal and there are several attractive runners in the field.

First of all, I would like to mention about SATONO RADIUS. This well-bred colt out of AVE, winner of the G1 Flower Bowl Stakes, ran bravely in prep races for Classic races for 3YOs in spring, while he was not good enough to compete in the G1 Satsuki Sho and the G1 Tokyo Yushun. However, the colt by DEEP IMPACT has improved since then and finished third, beaten by half a length by the winner, in the allowance race for two time winners, on 2nd November at Tokyo. I understand this performance proves that he is competitive in this class. SATONO RADIUS is my first choice.

CARO BAMBINA is a small horse, whose weight was 899lbs in her last start, but she is a fast horse as well. The filly by DEEP IMPACT finished second in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 1st December, and I believe she should have chance to finish in first two on Sunday, as she reproduces the form of three weeks ago. CARO BAMBINA is my second choice.

BOZZHIRA has graduated the class for one time winners in August and is facing tougher competition on Sunday. But he has finished second in the allowance race with Listed class last year and I am not surprised if he hit the board on Sunday. BOZZHIRA is my third choice.

DREAM SPIRIT ridden by Yutaka Take, who has finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Hakodate on 14th July, is my fourth choice. When he finished fifth in the allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 1st December, ridden by Miyabi Muto, the pace was very slow, which was not comfortable for him. Yutaka Take should be able to settle well the horse tracking leaders.

And TREASURE TROVE ridden by Damian Lane is my fifth choice. The 6YO horse by HARBINGER took five months off from May to October, and it looks he needed two races to regain his top form. He is now working sharper in the morning, and is ready to run his race on Sunday.

SELECTIONS: 11. SATONO RADIUS, 10. CARO BAMBINA, 12. BOZZHIRA, 3. DREAM SPIRIT & 8. TREASURE TROVE

S1-4     Noel Sho

There is no outstanding horse in the field of Noel Sho, stakes race for two time winning fillies and mares over 1,800m at Nakayama, and it looks very wide open.

The most consistent runner in the field is LOFTY PHRASE, who finished second in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 16th September, and finished second again in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 10th November. The 4YO filly by LORD KANALOA keeps improving, and is now much better horse than she was twelve months ago. The connections have been regarding her highly, and I believe the time has come for her to graduate this class. LOFTY PHRASE is my first choice. 

I believe the horse to beat for LOFTY PHRASE is CLIPPER. The 4YO filly by DEEP IMPACT took six months off after finishing fourth in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 4th May, and returned to race on 9th November, when she finished third in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo. It was very good effort as she might need the race to gain 100% fitness. She is lazy in the morning and I understand we should not be worried too much about her slow clocking time at Miho Training Center. She is my second choice.

SING FOR YOU finished fourteenth in the G1 Shuka Sho last time out and it is obvious that the competition there was too tough for the 3YO filly by JUST A WAY. On the other hand, the late kick she shown at Niigata on 17th August, when she won the allowance race for one time winner, was brilliant. And she finished second to CURREN BOUQUETD’OR, who subsequently finished second in the G1 Yushun Himba, the G1 Shuka Sho and the G1 Japan Cup. And I believe she likes Nakayama, where she has run three times, won one of them, and finished second twice. SING FOR YOU is my third choice.

TOSEN LIST finished fourteenth in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 3rd November. It was indisputably a disappointing performance and there was no excuse for it. Nonetheless, there are several encouraging factors for her. She finished second in the allowance race for two time winners twice, at Nakayama in September and at Tokyo in October respectively. As long as she reproduces those forms on Sunday, I believe she can finish within first four.

And my fifth choice is AIR GENE, who finished third in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 19th October.  It is encouraging factor that AIR GENE has collected two wins at Nakayama.

SELECTIONS: 4. LOFTY PHRASE, 10. CLIPPER, 13. SING FOR YOU, 11. TOSEN LIST & 6. AIR GENE

S1-5     2019 Farewell Stakes

2019 Farewell Stakes is the stakes race for three time winners, and this is the class just below Listed races.

RYUNO YUKINA has been running well at this class, as he finished within first four in last four starts. In his last time out, which was the allowance race over the same course and distance as this race on 7th December, he was unlucky with the draw, breaking from barrier 16 in 16 runners’ field, forced to take wide trip all way through, and still managed to finish fourth. And the 4YO colt by VERMILION clocked 1 minute and 9.5 seconds, when he finished second in the allowance race for three time winners at Niigata on 20th October, which is much quicker than standard time. He has good speed and good chance to win on Sunday. RYUNO YUKINA is my first choice.

The horse to beat for RYUNO YUKINA is ASTER SWING, 5YO horse by HAYNESFIELD. This big and strong American dirt horse finished second in the allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as this race in March, and finished second again in the allowance race for three time winners at Fukushima in July. It was good effort for him to finish sixth in the allowance race for three time winners at Nakayama on 7th December, as it was the first start for him since August. He must be sharper on Sunday than two weeks ago and ASTER SWING is my second choice.

MEISHO MIRAI, ridden by Yutaka Take, is my third choice. He graduated the class for two time winners at Tokyo on 9th June. And then, he finished second in the allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 8th September. It was very good effort, as it was the first start for him against three time winners and first time to run since June. Though MEISHO MIRAI was disappointing ninth last time out, he is now trained better in the morning than he was in prior to the previous start.

AKANESASU graduated the class for two time winners at Nakayama on 16th September. The winning time of that race, 1 minute and 10.0 seconds, is faster than standard and I believe she is capable to compete in this class. AKANESASU is my fourth choice.

OVERWRITE, who finished third in the 2018 Farewell Stakes twelve months ago, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 6. RYUNO YUKINA, 4. ASTER SWING, 3. MEISHO MIRAI, 8. AKANESASU & 15. OVERWRITE

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 6. RYUNO YUKINA
Selections – 4. ASTER SWING, 3. MEISHO MIRAI, 8. AKANESASU & 15. OVERWRITE
S1-6: Banker – 9. ALMOND EYE
Selections – 6. LYS GRACIEUX, 5. FIEREMENT, 11. KISEKI & 16. CHEVAL GRAND

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 6. RYUNO YUKINA, 4. ASTER SWING & 3. MEISHO MIRAI
S1-6: Multiple – 9. ALMOND EYE, 6. LYS GRACIEUX & 5. FIEREMENT
S1-7: Multiple – 5. SAN JOSE TESORO, 4. SHISEI TAIGA & 1. I'LL CHARM

S1-6     Arima Kinen

The Grand National in Great Britain, the Kentucky Derby in US, the Melbourne Cup in Australia, and the Arima Kinen in Japan, they are races which the public pays attention much more than any other races. If you could bet on Japanese horse racing only once in a year, it would be Arima Kinen. The runners in this race are selected through the voting by racing fans, and it is one of winter features in Japan.

Japanese are really charged up, more than an average year, for the National event, thanks to ALMOND EYE. The super filly was supposed to run at Sha Tin two weeks ago, however, her trip to Hong Kong was cancelled two days before departure, due to an elevated temperature. It is a pity for all involved in horse racing in the world. Fortunately, her temperature was returned to normal on following day and she missed only one training day. She breezed at Miho Training Center on 11th December and clocked 65.6 seconds for 1,000m. It is fantastic workout and I am convinced she is in top form. And once it is confirmed that she is ready to run the race, I am quite sure the winner of Arima Kinen this year is ALMOND EYE. Yes, it is true that she has never run the race beyond 2,400m and never run at Nakayama before. However, I do not think they could be the factors to bother her.

My second choice is LYS GRACIEUX, as I believe she is the second best horse in the field, or even the second best horse in training in Japan at the moment. While she ran well in Hong Kong, finishing second to EXULTANT in the G1 Hong Kong Vase in December 2018 and third to WIN BRIGHT in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup in April 2019, they were not her best performances. It was more impressive to see her winning the G1 Takarazuka Kinen by three lengths at Hanshin in June 2019, and far more brilliant when she won the G1 Cox Plate by one and a half lengths at Moonee Valley in October 2019. MAGIC WAND, who was beaten four lengths by LYS GRACIEUX at Cox Plate, won the G1 Mackinnon Stakes at Flemington and finished second in the G1 Hong Kong Cup at Sha Tin subsequently. She is a class horse and will come second on Sunday.

It is still fresh memory that GLORY VASE ran superbly at Sha Tin, winning the G1 Hong Kong Vase by three and a half lengths. And when he finished second in the G1 Tenno Sho Spring at Kyoto in April, the winner was FIEREMENT. It was undoubtedly a disappointing performance of him when he only finished twelfth in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. But his disappointing performance can be attributed to the sloppy track at ParisLongchamp which he was not able to handle. Nakayama is his favourite track as he started twice there and won one of them, and finished second in other outing. FIEREMENT is my third choice.

KISEKI, who finished second to LYS GRACIEUX in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen, is my fourth choice.

And CHEVAL GRAND, who finished third in this race in 2017 and 2018, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 9. ALMOND EYE, 6. LYS GRACIEUX, 5. FIEREMENT, 11. KISEKI & 16. CHEVAL GRAND

S1-7     Christmas Cup

The 1,200m turf course is the stage of Christmas Cup, stakes race for two time winners. 

My first choice is SAN JOSE TESORO, 3YO colt by THE FACTOR, imported from the US. This colt has been regarded highly by his connection, and he went to run the G3 Arlington Cup, immediately after he made successful racecourse debut at Chukyo in March. While he was well beaten in the Arlington Cup, as 1,600m might be too long for him, he won the allowance race for one time winners by two lengths at Hakodate in July, which was the first attempt for him to run over 1,200m. After that, he had two good races against two time winners, finishing fourth at Fukushima in November and third at Chukyo last time out respectively. Yutaka Take is booked for him on Sunday. SAN JOSE TESORO is my first choice.

The horse to beat for SAN JOSE TESORO is SHISEI TAIGA, 3YO colt by JUNGLE POCKET. Since he graduated the class for one time winners at Tokyo in June, he was consistent in the class for two time winners, as he finished within first three in three races in a row. Though, he ran a disappointing sixth in the allowance race on 30th November at Nakayama, there is certain excuse. His weight on that day was approximately 1,023lbs, which is 40lbs heavier than his previous start. It is supposed he might eat too much, and one or two more breezes in the morning were needed. I believe he should be fitter on Sunday. SHISEI TAIGA is my second choice.

I believe the quickest horse to leave the gate in the field is I’LL CHARM, 3YO filly by I’LL HAVE ANOTHER. She won the allowance race for one time winners at Fukushima in July, and was runner-up to TAISEI AVENIR in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 30th November, when she clocked 1 minute and 8.0 seconds, which is faster than standard time. I’LL CHARM is my third choice.

CINDERELLA MAKE, 4YO filly by DEEP BRILLANTE, who finished third in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 30th November, is my fourth choice.

And OJONO KISEKI, 4YO filly by KINSHASA NO KISEKI, who finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 23rd November and finished fifth in the Christmas Cup twelve months ago, is my fifth choice. While she could be slow to break occasionally, she should be able to earn money on Sunday, if she breaks well.

SELECTIONS: 5. SAN JOSE TESORO, 4. SHISEI TAIGA, 1. I'LL CHARM, 11. CINDERELLA MAKE & 10. OJONO KISEKI

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