Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

Expert Column for Dubai Thursday (S1) (Bill Esdaile)

S1-1     Dubai Millennium Stakes 

Godolphin have a strong hand in this race and Sheikh Mohammed’s powerful operation is going for an impressive sixth success in a contest that remembers one of their greatest horses. The G3 prize was first run in 2014, so only ZARAK – successful three years ago – has stopped Godolphin claiming a clean sweep of the 2,000m prize.

Last year’s winner SPOTIFY returns to defend his crown for trainer Charlie Appleby. He clung on by a short-head from stablemate RACING HISTORY when making all the running 12 months ago, before failing to make much impression in the G2 Dubai City Of Gold the following month. It probably didn’t help that he was ridden more patiently over the longer 2,410m distance, as his best form has come when racing more prominently. He came into this race last year having landed a Meydan handicap in January and he hasn’t had a prep run this time. His absence since finishing third in a French G3 at ParisLongchamp in June might not be too much of a negative as he has a decent record when returning from a break.

Appleby, responsible for three of the last four winners of this race, also runs GHAIYYATH. This lightly-raced 5YO kicked off last year with a smooth all-the-way victory in a ParisLongchamp G2 in April before disappointing in the G1 Prix Ganay over 2,100m. He returned from a mid-season break to land a G1 in Germany over 2,400m by an impressive 14 lengths. The G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe proved a step too far but he is the type to do well in Dubai. He is another one who likes to make the running but it’s hard to believe the two Appleby runners will take each other on for the lead and GHAIYYATH is best in at the weights on official handicap figures.

Godolphin’s other trainer Saeed bin Suroor saddles ROYAL MEETING which means they are responsible for half of the six runners. He never threatened to get involved in the finish when fifth of seven on his Dubai debut last month having disappointed in Australia in November and he seems to have plenty to prove on just his sixth racecourse start.

DESERT ENCOUNTER looks the biggest threat to the Godolphin domination. David Simcock’s runner likes to come from the rear and he has often struggled to get his timing right. It all seemed to click last year when rattling up a British hat-trick and adding his second successive G1 Canadian International Stakes over 2,400m at Woodbine to his haul. This distance is a little on the short side so he would like the leaders to go off quick in the early stages.

CERTAIN LAD steps into this G3 class having done well in Meydan handicaps last month. He scored a shock win over this 2,000m distance before finishing a close third over the same track and trip two weeks later.

This will demand more and is likely to be vying for places at best, while Norwegian raider PRIVILEGIADO looks out of his depth.

SELECTIONS: 6. GHAIYYATH, 2. SPOTIFY, 5. DESERT ENCOUNTER & 3. CERTAIN LAD

S1-2     90-105 Handicap

The 90-105 Handicap over 1,600m looks a particularly tricky contest to find the winner of but it would be no surprise to see Charlie Appleby’s GOOD FORTUNE go close. He has been knocking on the door of late, beaten just a neck behind LAND OF LEGENDS last time in a 90-105 with a number of his opponents here well beaten behind him. Prior to that he finished three lengths back on his Meydan race and with the signs suggesting that more potential is still to come as he finds his feet, he looks set to be one of the main challengers.

MASAARR hasn’t been seen on the racetrack for almost a year but does have some good form having won a 1,600m Listed content in France as well as placing in a G3 in Ireland over 1,600m. However, prior to his break from the track he twice disappointed, being beaten by some distance in a G2 here over 1,600m but more worryingly in a Listed contest at Jebel Ali. The extended 1,950m trip clearly didn’t suit that day, but he will have to unearth some of that European form after such a long break if he is to challenge for a place here.

Trainer Doug Watson is so often the man to follow at Meydan but MOTAFAAWIT looks unlikely to give him another win having failed to land a blow last time out in similar company.

FREESCAPE was one of those well beaten in that race and in truth he has struggled to handle the opposition in each of his two Meydan starts this season.

One to keep an eye on is FUEGO DEL AMOR. He finished fifth over 1,400m last time out but was only beaten a length in a blanket finish and looks likely to appreciate the step up in trip.

Mickael Barzalona’s ride MAILSHOT finished fourth in a similar contest at the beginning of the year but will need to improve to hit the front here having been beaten five lengths.

MAJOR PARTNERSHIP won over 1,400m here at the New Year meeting, but from an inside draw everything went right for him that day and he has twice disappointed since.

FIRMAMENT ended up too far back early on and was never a danger when finishing sixth over 1,600m last time out and has some solid European form in Europe. He’s heading into the twilight stage of his career and may find one or two of his younger rivals improve past him, but you would still expect him to be challenging for the places and ready to pounce if the race were to fall apart.

CLIFFS OF CAPRI will need to prove he still has what it takes to compete at this level following two poor appearances since moving to Meydan at the end of last year.

SHANTY STAR was beaten by both FUEGO DEL AMOR and MAJOR PARTNERSHIP last time out and both should have his measure once again, while both MOQARRAB and MOQTARREB look up against it.

SELECTIONS: 7. GOOD FORTUNE, 12. FUEGO DEL AMOR, 6. FIRMAMENT, 1. MASAARR & 2. MAJOR PARTNERSHIP

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:    Banker – 7. GOOD FORTUNE
Selections – 12. FUEGO DEL AMOR, 6. FIRMAMENT, 1. MASAARR & 2. MAJOR PARTNERSHIP
S1-3:    Banker – 5. DUBAI LOVE
Selections – 6. DOWN ON DA BAYOU, 2. SEREIN, 3. TAPI SIOUX & 1. ASCOT BRASS

S1-3     UAE Oaks

Saeed bin Suroor goes for an incredible 11th victory in the 1,900m UAE Oaks. The Godolphin trainer has won this G3 prize more times than the rest of the trainers put together since it was introduced in 2001. He hasn’t lifted the trophy since LOCAL TIME triumphed five years ago but he does look to have an excellent chance to end that surprising barren spell. His DUBAI LOVE comes out best on the official handicapping figures having won two of her four races. She made a winning debut despite starting slowly at Nottingham last October when the heavy ground would not have been ideal for a newcomer. Her third in a fillies’ novice race on the polytrack at Kempton the following month when sent off favourite could have been seen as disappointing, but she was conceding weight to some smart prospects so it was probably a decent effort in a good race. She put in a respectable effort on her Dubai debut in the UAE 1000 Guineas Trial over 1,400m in early January when fourth behind FINAL SONG and DOWN ON DA BAYOU. That form was then reversed when she was upped to 1,600m for the Listed UAE 1000 Guineas. DUBAI LOVE easily came clear in the closing stages despite suffering interference in the straight to land that Listed contest by three-and-a-quarter lengths from front-running DOWN ON DA BAYOU, with FINAL SONG another two lengths back in third. She is clearly thriving on the dirt surface and the step up to 1,900m should not be a problem for the Godolphin filly.

DOWN ON DA BAYOU has set the pace in her last three races. Her half-sister POLAR RIVER won this prize four years ago so the longer distance should be in her favour. If she is allowed an easy time in front she could be hard to pass but she does need to pull out something extra as she was brushed aside fairly easily by DUBAI LOVE last time out and they meet again on identical terms.

Japanese raider SEREIN could be a threat. She has plenty of dirt experience having won by a neck at Nakayama over 1,800m last month under experienced jockey Yutaka Take. Her debut win in July also came on dirt so this surface should not be a problem and the slightly longer distance is not a worry.

Trainer Doug Watson plunges TAPI SIOUX into some deep waters after she failed to win any of her first three races. She didn’t seem to have the necessary pace for 1,400m and put in some eye-catching late work when third over 1,600m at Meydan last month. This extra distance should suit her and, while she does need to find plenty of improvement to trouble DUBAI LOVE, she looks to be progressing.

ASCOT BRASS beat stablemate CARELESS WHISPER at Bro Park in Sweden in October but the Norwegian raider was beaten a long way when fifth behind DUBAI LOVE in the Listed UAE 1000 Guineas last month. It would be a big surprise if either of the Scandinavian fillies make much of an impact.

SELECTIONS: 5. DUBAI LOVE, 6. DOWN ON DA BAYOU, 2. SEREIN & 3. TAPI SIOUX

S1-4     Zabeel Mile

Godolphin have won the G2 Zabeel Mile a record six times and they look to hold strong claims of winning the 2020 renewal. A strong challenge for the ‘Boys In Blue’ is headed by last year’s winner MYTHICAL MAGIC who was just touched off on his most recent start in a G2 contest over 1,400m at Meydan. He was receiving weight from stablemate GLORIOUS JOURNEY there, but it wasn’t a bad performance considering it was his first start in 220 days. MYTHICAL MAGIC finished second in that race last season before comfortably taking this one, so connections will be hoping he steps forward in similar fashion this year.

While he’s had the 12 career runs, Charlie Appleby’s other contender ZAKOUSKI has had just three. Having won a polytrack novice over 1,400m at Kempton in November 2018, his next start came in the G3 1,600m Craven Stakes where he finished fifth having become unsettled in the stalls. For connections to run him in a G3 contest on just his second career start shows he’s a horse who is clearly well regarded and he confirmed that promise with a taking victory in a Meydan handicap over 1,600m at the beginning of January. That was after 268 days off the track and you’ve got to think there will be loads more to come from this son of SHAMARDAL.

Godolphin’s final runner is the Saeed bin Suroor-trained DREAM CASTLE who returned to form when second to BARNEY ROY in a G2 here a few weeks ago over 1,800m. The 6YO flourished at Meydan 12 months ago, rattling off a hat-trick of wins before disappointing when finishing 13th of 13 behind ALMOND EYE in the G1 Dubai Turf over 1,800m. He disappointed in two starts back in Europe last summer before again failing to shine in a couple of runs in Australia. He couldn’t land a blow on his reappearance at Meydan back in January so that good second to BARNEY ROY last time was a decent step in the right direction.

SALUTE THE SOLDIER was pretty progressive for Clive Cox last season, winning two valuable handicaps over 1,400m at Goodwood and Ascot. His run last time was the first for Fawzi Nass and although he was victorious, he looks set to find it tougher now upped in class.

GOLDEN JAGUAR will need to improve considerably to feature although the return to the turf course here at Meydan should help him.

SELECTIONS: 1. ZAKOUSKI, 2. MYTHICAL MAGIC, 7. DREAM CASTLE, 5. SALUTE THE SOLDIER & 3. GOLDEN JAGUAR

S1-5     Meydan Sprint

So impressive was EQUILATERAL when winning over this same 1,000m track four weeks ago that he will be at short odds to see off this opposition at level weights. That was EQUILATERAL’s first race at Meydan and also his first since he was gelded last November, and he looked a revelation, tanking along through the race and winning easily. He was only caught on the line by a G1 winner in MABS CROSS in the G3 Palace House Stakes over this trip at last year’s Guineas meeting in Newmarket and has speed to burn.

Most jockeys are adamant that EQUILATERAL is best when held up, and in CASPIAN PRINCE he has the perfect trailblazer to help him settle and get the perfect tow into the race. CASPIAN PRINCE is a hardy individual, running his 99th race, but he has twice been put in his place by EQUILATERAL and WAADY over 1,000m at Meydan this season, and, being an 11YO, he is not hiding any secrets.

WAADY, who is a Meydan regular, is the obvious choice to chase home the favourite, which he did here last month when getting weight. On that occasion, WAADY was taken off his legs by the blistering early pace and ran through horses at the end to finish second. Granted, WAADY has won a G3 over this 1,000m trip in Britain, but that was back in 2015 and, though he did score over this distance here last week that was only a handicap. He is now an 8YO and probably needs 1,200m in this company.

MAZZINI has been off the track since finding the G1 Al Quoz Sprint over 1,200m too hot a race on World Cup night last March. He could well be in need of a run and is also an habitual slow-starter. But he did jump out on terms and make all to win a handicap over 1,000m on his first race at Meydan last year. However, five of his six wins in Europe came on the all-weather, which looks his preferred surface.

BLITZKREIG was twice a winner in America (over 1,600m and 1,300m) but has taken time to settle in at Meydan. He was disappointing first time over 1,400m, but at least he finished his race off strongly when subsequently dropping down to 1,200m. However, he needs to improve again on that second to trouble the principals.

ANGEL ALEXANDER was only fifth in the latter race, his first in Dubai, but he was a smart sprinting handicapper in Europe, winning the Ayr Gold Cup over 1,200m and also twice winning over 1,000m at Chester, one of the fastest tracks in the UK.

Blinkers seem to have improved YAALAIL, but he is out of his comfort zone here. Two of his three victories were over 1,600m and the other over 1,400m, and, in fact, he has never previously raced over a trip as short as 1,200m. He will struggle to live with the early fractions.

SELECTIONS: 5. EQUILATERAL, 6. WAADY, 10. MAZZINI, 2. BLITZKRIEG & 4. CASPIAN PRINCE

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:    Banker – 5. EQUILATERAL
Selections – 6. WAADY, 10. MAZZINI, 2. BLITZKRIEG & 4. CASPIAN PRINCE
S1-6:    Banker – 4. MIDNIGHT SANDS
Selections – 1. TOUR TO PARIS, 3. ALL OUT BLITZ, 6. FASUBA & 7. OCEAN FURY

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 5. EQUILATERAL, 6. WAADY & 10. MAZZINI
S1-6: Multiple – 4. MIDNIGHT SANDS, 1. TOUR TO PARIS & 3. ALL OUT BLITZ
S1-7: Multiple – 1. LAND OF LEGENDS, 5. DUBAI LEGACY & 2. FANAAR

S1-6     90-105 Handicap

Trainer Doug Watson made history at Meydan in November when winning six races in a row and he will be hopeful of tasting more victory in the 90-105 Handicap over 1,400m. Watson’s MIDNIGHT SANDS won that night following a 251-day break from the track and, having followed up twice over 1,400m and 1,600m, he will be fancied to go close again in this field. The 4YO may only do just enough to win following back-to-back victories by a neck and a short head, but he is clearly on the up and it would be no surprise to see him go in again for an in-form trainer. Incredibly, MIDNIGHT SANDS is the only horse that arrives with any sort of form, so finding the best of the rest depends on horses rediscovering their form or the main market protagonist coming up short.

AL SAHEM has been running in Group company without landing a blow but should find this a lot easier than those contests, though he didn’t show much up in trip at 3,200m in a G2 last time out. The drop back down to 1,400m isn’t sure to suit either having done his best work over trips between 1,800m and 2,200m and he hasn’t been seen on the racetrack since 2018, so is easily left out.

Swedish entry MASTER BLASTER managed to finish in front of pre-race favourite DUBAI ICON at 100/1 at Meydan over 2,000m last time out, though he was still beaten into seventh and that form doesn’t look great. He is unlikely to make any inroads in this contest.

TOUR TO PARIS put in a very respectable effort when beaten less than six lengths in a G3 here at Meydan in January. The 5YO has won over this 1,400m trip, but that was almost a year ago back in France and he has been doing all of his work over shorter since a poor effort at ParisLongchamp in September.

FASUBA has been beaten a total of 31 lengths in his two appearances at Meydan to date over trips ranging from 1,200m to 1,600m and his winning 1,600m form from Macau isn’t strong.

The Satish Seemar-trained ALL OUT BLITZ was beaten seven lengths in his previous G3 Meydan appearance over 1,200m last time. This will be easier though and he has placed in Group company back in Santa Anita over the same trip.

OCEAN FURY’s Meydan debut was disappointing and he has a bit to prove now.

SELECTIONS: 4. MIDNIGHT SANDS, 1. TOUR TO PARIS, 3. ALL OUT BLITZ, 6. FASUBA & 7. OCEAN FURY

S1-7     90-105 Handicap

Godolphin are enjoying another fruitful carnival with 20 winners already on the board, and they have a strong representation in the 90-105 Handicap over 1,600m. The strongest looks to be LAND OF LEGENDS, who was lightly-raced in the UK but still managed to win three races over 1,400m, including one at the prestigious Glorious Goodwood meeting. LAND OF LEGENDS made an eye-catching first appearance in Dubai over 1,600m four weeks ago, despite being forced wide from gate 15. From that draw, it was always going to be tough, and passing the 400m pole he was still in only 10th place. However, the turbo kicked in and LAND OF LEGENDS produced a potent finishing burst and just failed to catch SALUTE THE SOLDIER. LAND OF LEGENDS, who made KING OF COMEDY fight hard for victory on debut, went down in many notebooks that day as an unlucky loser, and granted a better trip here he will be very hard to beat. KING OF COMEDY went on to be beaten just a neck by CIRCUS MAXIMUS in a G1 at Royal Ascot and was then beaten only two lengths by multiple G1 winner JAPAN in the G1 Juddmonte International Stakes at York, so no horse in this race can boast better form.

Bin Suroor’s DUBAI LEGACY also has place prospects. He was a decent horse in Europe the last three seasons and there were excuses for his two disappointing runs here last month. DUBAI LEGACY started favourite for both races but had reasons for underperforming. He overcome a wide draw behind MAJOR PARTNERSHIP the first time and then finished lame when making his debut on the dirt four weeks later.

FANAAR also has smart Royal Ascot form, finishing third in the 1,600m Britannia Stakes last year, and he would be interesting having his first run in Dubai for leading trainer Doug Watson. However, he has been off the track since a disappointing effort at Ascot in September over 1,400m, finishing last of 16, and we may just see him go on and improve for the run.

After a poor first season in Dubai, TASHWEEQ changed stables and was an immediate success over 1,400m here in early January. He had a stiffer task next time over 1,400m, yet was still beaten only two necks having missed the break in a race run at a very fast pace. And, though TASHWEEQ now steps up to 1,600m, he has already shown that he stays well, having finished an excellent third in the prestigious 1,600m Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot three years ago.

British trainer Simon Crisford has been knocking on the door with EPIC HERO this year, with his 4YO twice hitting the frame only to be beaten by short distance. Both efforts came over 1,600m and 1,800m and he should be primed and ready for another big effort here, while the booking of James Doyle is a major plus for the Crisford camp.

ARAB SPRING, formerly trained by Sir Michael Stoute, has G3-winning form over 2,400m back in the UK, but he has been off the track for three years so it’s hard to know what to expect.

No jockey has fired in more winter winners than Ben Curtis in the UK over the winter but his mount WAIT FOREVER will have to build on his performances this season to have any chance.

The same can be said for LYNDON B who was pulled up two starts back over 1,600m, while WAIT FOREVER ran ninth in the same race and there’s no reason to believe he will improve on that having been disappointing.

BAY OF POETS has also been well beaten in similar form lines and can be left out of calculations, but LAIETH is worth a second look having finished second last time out over 1,400m. He was beaten just a neck behind BEYOND REASON but will need to prove that’s no fluke having struggled over course and distance prior to that run.

SELECTIONS: 1. LAND OF LEGENDS, 5. DUBAI LEGACY, 2. FANAAR, 12. TASHWEEQ & 11. LAIETH

Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.

HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.