 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Dubai Super Saturday (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Al Bastakiya
LASER SHOW will attempt to bounce back to form in the Listed Al Bastakiya having won the trial for this race over the same distance in January. Saeed bin Suroor’s inmate had the run of the race that day and he could not back that win up when returned to 1,600m for the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas. He was well positioned turning into the straight but faded in disappointing fashion when only 10th in the dirt Classic. The form of his win in the Al Bastakiya Trial looks a little suspect and he needs the return to this 1,900m distance to spark an improved display.
Godolphin trainer Bin Suroor also runs smart filly DUBAI LOVE, who is best in at the weights. She was no match for DOWN ON DA BAYOU when runner-up in the G3 UAE Oaks over the same track and trip having beaten the same rival in the Listed UAE 1000 Guineas. This dirt surface clearly suits her and this is a slight drop in class from G3 level.
ZABARDAST has twice run well recently. He came through from the rear when third behind LASER SHOW in the trial for this in January and again was held up when chasing home FORE LEFT in the 1,600m G3 UAE 2000 Guineas. He had a whole host of these rivals behind when runner-up in that Classic, but his favoured hold-up tactics are rarely easy to pull off on Meydan’s dirt surface.
YA HAYATI put in a remarkable effort to win on turf over 1,900m at Meydan three weeks ago. He carted his jockey William Buick for much of the race and the pair were caught around the home turn. There was enough fuel in the tank for him to hold on by a length from TIMO NURMOS with GREY FLASH back in third. The form might not be the strongest but Charlie Appleby’s DUBAWI colt is bred to love the switch to dirt and the likely stronger pace should help him settle.
EMBLEM STORM was less than a length further back in third in the Guineas. He could get even closer upped in distance.
DARK OF NIGHT stayed on nicely after starting slowly when sixth in the same race. He’s made a nasty habit of missing the break and that continues to hold him back.
COMMANDING went into the Guineas on the back of two 1,600m wins at Meydan and he didn’t seem to have any excuses in eighth. His pedigree suggests he’s unlikely to improve for the step up in distance.
American import LIAM’S LEGEND finished a place behind LASER SHOW when 11th in the UAE 2000 Guineas. That was his first run in Dubai but he did have the rails draw. Expect him to come good at some stage.
EMIRATES CURRENCY ran his usual race in 12th when making some late progress but never looking likely to play a hand in the finish. He ran a similar race when switched to turf for the Listed Meydan Classic over 1,600m and it’s hard to see how he can reverse the Guineas form with those that finished in front of him.
SELECTIONS: 14. YA HAYATI, 7. DUBAI LOVE, 11. ZABARDAST, 10. EMBLEM STORM & 3. LASER SHOW
S1-2 Mahab Al Shimaal
This year’s renewal of the G3 Mahab Al Shimaal looks ultra-competitive. A mixture of improving sorts and recent underperformers with previous form in the book makes it a tricky puzzle to solve.
The progressive BOCHART is bidding for a hat-trick of wins after recently going back-to-back over track and trip. His latest win, a seven-and-a-half length demolition job, saw his rating rocket to a career-high 112 and it was hard not to be impressed. The son of DUBAWI stretched clear and won comfortably with a few useful types in behind, including PRODIGAL SON, LAVASPIN and SWITZERLAND.
LAVASPIN has failed to build on his three wins from last season, returning with a sixth in the G3 1,200m Dubawi Stakes. He couldn’t match BOCHART’s turn of foot on his last run over 1,200m at Meydan and was last seen finishing fourth over 1,000m at Jebel Ali. More is required here if he’s to get involved.
SWITZERLAND has only been seen once so far this season, finishing a distant seventh in the aforementioned race won in impressive fashion by BOCHART. The change of yard from Steven Asmussen to Doug Watson is yet to bring about any improvement, although you’d expect him to strip fitter for his sole start this campaign.
Of more interest is IBN MALIK. The chestnut gelding had BOCHART beaten over 10 lengths in the 1,200m Listed Garhoud Sprint in early December and has been placed in two Group contests since. He went within a neck of landing the G3 Dubawi Stakes and then finished a close-up third in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint despite missing the break. Everything suggests he’s in decent form and a big run is expected.
American sprinter FIGHT ON is interesting in his maiden campaign in Dubai, particularly given he’s stepping back to 1,200m having raced over 1,600m or further in his last four starts. He finished last on his last run over 1,200m and backing him requires a leap of faith in trainer Doug O’Neill, but he’s speedily bred and unexposed at the trip.
WAFY, formerly with Charles Hills in the UK, is also spending his first spell in the UAE. He bolted up by six lengths over 1,200m at Jebel Ali despite the five-and-a-half month lay-off and should go well again. This represents a big step up in class, while his form in the UK is all over further distances. He clearly enjoyed the sharper trip at Jebel Ali last time out but it didn’t appear to be the strongest race and his sprinting credentials will now be fully tested.
WAR FRONT colt ALKARAAMA has found the deeper waters of Meydan a little too much, having been well beaten in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint in between a win and a second at Jebel Ali. He’s a three-time winner in the UK over 1,200m, though, and is open to improvement.
Swedish sprinter I KIRK wasn’t disgraced by finishing fifth in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint but has a fair bit to find with IBN MALIK. You’d expect him to be chasing one or two home again but could pick up some prize money.
SELECTIONS: 7. BOCHART, 13. IBN MALIK, 6. I KIRK, 10. WAFY & 5. SWITZERLAND
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 7. BOCHART
Selections – 13. IBN MALIK, 6. I KIRK, 10. WAFY & 5. SWITZERLAND
S1-3: Banker – 11. EKHTIYAAR
Selections – 6. SPACE BLUES, 10. RUSUMAAT, 12. MAZZINI & 14. ANGEL ALEXANDER
S1-3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint
EKHTIYAAR will attempt to go one better than last year’s second in the G3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint. He chased home Europe’s top sprinter BLUE POINT in this 1,200m contest 12 months ago and Doug Watson’s speedster has been in good form in recent starts. There was a lot to like about the way he dispatched a fair bunch of handicappers over this course and distance in January and he raced furthest from the rail when only fourth behind RUSUMAAT in a 1,200m Listed race last month. He is proven in this G3 class and is second best on official ratings.
RUSUMAAT was no better than a handicapper when trained in Britain by Mark Johnston back in 2017. He hasn’t had much racing since but he showed he’s as good as ever since returning to turf on his last two starts. His third behind EQUILATERAL and WAADY over 1,000m in January has worked out really well and he caused a surprise when holding off BLITZKRIEG in a Listed handicap upped to 1,200m last month. He is well worth a shot at this G3 grade.
SPACE BLUES is the highest rated on official handicap ratings and showed smart form in Europe last season but his best efforts were over further. He landed a York handicap in May before following up in the Listed Surrey Stakes – a couple of weeks later. Charlie Appleby’s star showed even better form later in the season. He chased home Europe’s top miler TOO DARN HOT in the G1 Prix Jean Prat over 1,400m at Deauville in July and filled the frame in another top contest when third behind ADVERTISE over 1,300m in the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest when returned to France in August. There’s no doubt he’s better over longer distances but he is potentially better than this grade.
LAND OF LEGENDS did well for Goldolphin trainer Saeed bin Suroor in Britain last year. He completed a hat-trick of 1,400m wins in a Goodwood handicap in August but he couldn’t cope with the drop to sprinting over 1,200m at Newmarket three weeks later. His two runs at Meydan recently have both come over 1,600m. He’s run really well to be runner-up in both despite enduring a wide trip. There are races to be won with him but they are likely to come over longer trips.
Suroor also runs MAJOR PARTNERSHIP. His two wins came over further than this trip and he didn’t seem to have stamina problems when a close third in a 1,600m handicap two weeks ago. The return to sprinting is a worry.
MAZZINI progressed through the ranks before finishing third behind BLUE POINT and EKHTIYAAR in this race last year. He was well beaten behind WAADY over 1,000m on his first run for 11 months. That trip would have been on the sharp side and he is entitled to take a fair step forward for that comeback effort.
ANGEL ALEXANDER finished in front of MAZZINI when sixth behind WAADY in that G2 contest. He had already had a run – when fifth behind RUSUMAAT – so last year’s Ayr Gold Cup hero had an edge of fitness but he will like the return to 1,200m.
SELECTIONS: 11. EKHTIYAAR, 6. SPACE BLUES, 10. RUSUMAAT, 12. MAZZINI & 14. ANGEL ALEXANDER
S1-4 Burj Nahaar
KIMBEAR and SECRET AMBITION have twice gone head-to-head for victory at Meydan this season and the duo will once again battle out in the G3 Burj Nahaar over 1,600m. Both are vying for favouritism heading into the contest and with a win apiece from their conquests so far, finding the winner is no simple task. However, SECRET AMBITION could edge it. Satish Seemar’s entry was a double figure price when beating his rival by a length in the 1,600m Dubai Creek Mile back in December and certainly outran his odds that day. He proved that win was no fluke when finishing just a short head behind KIMBEAR in the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R1 over the same distance, with NORTH AMERICA back in third. He was no match for CAPEZZANO on his most recent start when second in the G3 Firebreak Stakes over course and distance, but it was once again another solid performance.
KIMBEAR on the other hand struggled to cope in the second round of the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge, finishing a well beaten eighth of 10 but a SECRET AMBITIO and KIMBEAR quinella looks likely.
SALUTE THE SOLDIER won over 1,600m and was only beaten a length into fourth up in grade in a very strong G2 Zabeel Mile against the likes of ZAKOUSKI and MYTHICAL MAGIC.
American-bred BLITZKRIEG has been running over distances ranging from 1,000m to 1,400m and finished third most recently in G2 company, two lengths behind WAADY and EQUILATERAL. However, he had won over 1,600m trip and certainly enters calculations.
AMBASSADORIAL has been running well in handicaps but was disappointing in the aforementioned G3 Firebreak Stakes and will need to improve to finish in the places here.
Doug O’Neill, trainer of BLITZKRIEG, is also represented by PRODIGAL SON, but he is another who needs to prove he can cope with the rise in class having been well beaten in handicaps over shorter.
Elsewhere, the likes of AXELROD and TAAMOL could get involved on their day if the race breaks up. The former has been comfortably beaten over 1,600m and 2,000m on his previous two appearances in G1 and G3 contests, and hasn’t won a race since August 2018 when landing a G3 back in America. TAAMOL was beaten comfortably in a 1,400m handicap here, although he has won over this distance in the UAE, a Listed contest in Abu Dhabi. It looks too much of an ask for the remainder of the field and they can be ignored.
SELECTIONS: 2. SECRET AMBITION, 4. KIMBEAR, 3. BLITZKRIEG, 1. AMBASSADORIAL & 12. PRODIGAL SON
S1-5 Jebel Hatta
Like with most races on Super Saturday, in the G1 Jebel Hatta over 1,800m, Godolphin’s royal blue colours are the first thing for punters to consider. The Boys in Blue have won this race a record seven times and have been successful in five of the last seven years. It will be a big shock if they don’t win it again – in fact, it will be a bit of a surprise if they don’t land the trio as five of Sheikh Mohammed’s runners are set to occupy the first four places in the betting.
The hot favourite is BARNEY ROY who finished second in the 2017 G1 2000 Guineas over 1,600m at Newmarket before winning the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot over the same distance the following month. He was trained by Richard Hannon back then but, after a failed stud career, he was brought back to the track following a gelding operation by new trainer Charlie Appleby at Ascot in May last year. A close second in a 1,600m Listed contest was followed with a win at ParisLongchamp over the same distance a few weeks later. The G1 Queen Anne Stakes didn’t go to plan in June, but he won impressively on his Dubai debut at Meydan in an 1,800m G2 in January. Clearly enjoying the big galloping track, the son of EXCELEBRATION comfortably saw off DREAM CASTLE and this race was immediately nominated as his next target. He does have a wide draw to contend with, though.
Appleby holds a strong hand in this with both MAGIC LILY and SPOTIFY respected. MAGIC LILY, a 5YO daughter of NEW APPROACH, is two from two at Meydan having won a 1,600m G2 for fillies and mares in January and then following up in another G2 over 1,800m last month. She is taking on the boys here, which makes life more difficult, but she comes into this in great form and won’t be far away.
Formerly trained in France, SPOTIFY moved to Charlie Appleby just over a year ago and he managed to win a couple of races at the 2019 Dubai Carnival, a 2,410m handicap and then a G3 over 2,000m. He dropped down to 2,000m last time and although no match for stablemate GHAIYYATH, he still ran a respectable race.
No horse has ever won this race twice, but last year’s hero DREAM CASTLE will try to change that for Saeed bin Suroor who has won this event six times. The son of FRANKEL was in flying form this time last year and while not quite at that level so far in 2020, it was a good effort behind ZAKOUSKI and MYTHICAL MAGIC in a 1,600m G2 last time.
There doesn’t look to be much between the rest who are all outsiders and surely just trying to pick up some prize money. SURROUNDING was fourth behind MAGIC LILY in a G2 over 1,800m last month which was a good run and better form than the rest of these who have generally been running in handicaps. MASAARR’s fourth in a 1,600m Meydan handicap last time wasn’t a bad run and he could slip into the top-five.
SELECTIONS: 8. MAGIC LILY, 12. BARNEY ROY, 1. SPOTIFY, 10. DREAM CASTLE & 7. SURROUNDING
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 8. MAGIC LILY
Selections – 12. BARNEY ROY, 1. SPOTIFY, 10. DREAM CASTLE & 7. SURROUNDING
S1-6: Banker – 2. MILITARY LAW
Selections – 3. MATTERHORN, 4. DESERT FIRE, 7. ROMAN ROSSO & 6. QUIP
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 8. MAGIC LILY, 12. BARNEY ROY & 1. SPOTIFY
S1-6: Multiple – 2. MILITARY LAW, 3. MATTERHORN & 4. DESERT FIRE
S1-7: Multiple – 2. DEFOE, 1. DESERT ENCOUNTER & 6. PABLO ESCOBARR
S1-6 Al Maktoum Challenge R3
Though Godolphin have won the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 a record eight times, they haven’t won the race since 2015. They’ll be hoping to change that in 2020 with DESERT FIRE who will need to step up on what he’s done so far this term. He didn’t run too badly in the Listed Zabeel Turf over 2,000m, but was disappointing last time over 2,410m in a Meydan handicap and needs to bounce back now. His trainer, Saeed bin Suroor, has won the race a record 11 times, though, so his charge has to be respected, particularly as the form of his 2,000m Chelmsford win in September looks handy with the runner-up DUBAI WARRIOR an impressive of the 2,000m G3 Winter Derby at Lingfield recently.
MATTERHORN was one of the most consistent horses in the UK when trained by Mark Johnston. In 20 races for the trainer, he finished out of the first three on just five occasions and was victorious eight times. He is now with Salem bin Ghadayer, the winning trainer in two of the last three years, and his new recruit should run well here. He was an encouraging third in the G3 Firebreak Stakes over 1,600m and with natural improvement, has the ability to get involved.
QUIP finished fifth in that same race last time and connections will be hoping for an improved performance now. He was a dual G2 win in the United States, so clearly has ability, but it’s still to be seen if he has retains that.
Like MATTERHORN, MILITARY LAW was a solid campaigner in the UK, this time when trained by John Gosden. He was victorious three times for Gosden, but is now under the care of Musabbeh Al Mheiri and he looks to have an improving sort on his hands. Having finished down the field in a Meydan conditions race, he was an impressive three-length winner of the Listed contest over 2,000m, before running another good race when second to BENBATL in the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R2 over 1,900m. That is very strong form and it brings him right into contention here.
MARK OF APPROVAL’s form doesn’t look strong enough, so it could be worth taking a chance on ROMAN ROSSO. Satish Seemar’s 5YO finished fourth in the aforementioned G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R2 in what was his first start for the trainer. He finished a fair way behind BENBATL there, but this is a horse who won three G1s in Uruguay so has some fair form. It’s a bit of leap of faith to suggest he’s up to winning it, although on his old form he could easily finish amongst the placings.
SELECTIONS: 2. MILITARY LAW, 3. MATTERHORN, 4. DESERT FIRE, 7. ROMAN ROSSO & 6. QUIP
S1-7 Dubai City Of Gold
Striker Defoe lit up the Premier League for more than a decade with his goals and the horse of the same name is expected to score in the G2 2,410m Dubai City Of Gold. Roger Varian’s stable star is likely to go off a short price having already competed and shone at the highest level around in the UK and it’s difficult to see him being beat here. The 6YO celebrated G1 and G2 victories over 2,405m at Epsom and 2,392m at Ascot respectively last summer, getting the better of the likes of KEW GARDENS when landing the G1 Coronation Cup. Connections claimed conditions didn’t suit when DEFOE finished well down the field on his final start of last season in the G1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2,392m. It’s very easy to forgive him for that run as he was never travelling and with the distance and ground sure to suit at Meydan, he is likely to be most people’s banker of the evening.
David Simcock’s DESERT ENCOUNTER looks the most likely candidate to pick up the pieces should DEFOE run disappoint having competed and won in Group contests both in the UK and Canada. His most recent victory came in the G1 Canadian International Stakes at Woodbine over 2,400m, a race he has won two years in a row under the tutelage of Andrea Atzeni. Away from North America, the 8YO has only won up to G3 level, landing contests at Newbury, Windsor and Goodwood over distances ranging from 2,000m to 2,400m. He was well beaten last time out on debut at Meydan when finishing fifth of six in the G3 Dubai Millennium Stakes last month but he should strip fitter and improve for that run.
PABLO ESCOBARR looks the best of the rest and should be there at the finish having already ran well at Meydan this season, although it was in a handicap over 2,410m rather than in Group company. Prior to that he was successful in a Listed race at Kempton over 2,399m and though he looks unlikely to trouble the front two, he deserves his shot at some place money.
Elsewhere, LOXLEY finished behind PABLO ESCOBARR in that aforementioned Kempton contest and has been well beaten in two Meydan appearances this year, but trainer Charlie Appleby does well on these big days.
The yard also runs FIRST NATION who finished third in the G3 Dubai Millennium Stakes over 2,000m last year but has failed to land a blow in three handicaps at Meydan already this season.
JALMOUD also runs for Appleby in the famous royal blue silks and if he can find his form of old he could be the best of their trio having placed in Group contests in France before a 177-day break.
MOUNTAIN HUNTER could collect some prize money but the remainder of the field can be ignored.
SELECTIONS: 2. DEFOE, 1. DESERT ENCOUNTER, 6. PABLO ESCOBARR, 10. JALMOUD & 7. FIRST NATION
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