Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Takamatsunomiya Kinen (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen

TOWER OF LONDON, the winner of the G1 Sprinters Stakes in 2019, is kept in training in 2020 and has been trained for this race. Godolphin’s 5YO horse by RAVEN’S PASS was one of top contenders at mile division in 2018, when he was 3YO and won the G3 Arlington Cup at Hanshin. Kazuo Fujisawa, who trains the horse bred by Darley Japan, decided to cut short the distance last summer and TOWER OF LONDON has run races over 1,200m exclusively since then. This change of strategy worked well. He won the G2 Centaur Stakes by three lengths, breaking the track record, and captured the G1 Sprinters Stakes in September 2019. As the autumn campaign was busy, TOWER OF LONDON was given easy time after the Sprinters Stakes. Instead of competing in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint in December, he returned at racecourse on 7th March, when he finished third in the G3 Ocean Stakes at Nakayama. It was not bad effort, as it was the first start since September, and he should be in the best condition for the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen. I appoint TOWER OF LONDON as my first choice with assurance.

And I assess the horse to beat for TOWER OF LONDON is DANON SMASH, who won the G3 Ocean Stakes, finishing four and a half lengths ahead of TOWER OF LONDON. This is the second time when the 5YO horse by LORD KANALOA defeated TOWER OF LONDON since TOWER OF LONDON started to compete at sprinters’ division, as TOWER OF LONDON was runner-up to DANON SMASH in the G3 Keeneland Cup at Sapporo in August 2019. Though DANON SMASH only finished a disappointing eighth in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint, which his sire won twice, in December, he is very consistent at 1,200m races in Japan, as he started nine times, won five of them, finished second once, third once and fourth once. DANON SMASH is my second choice.

I believe the horse who has potential to make surprise is GRAN ALEGRIA, who has never started the race over 1,200m. She has run six races and five of them are 1,600m races. The only exception is the G2 Hanshin Cup over 1,400m on 21st December at Hanshin, and it is arguably the best performance by the 4YO filly by DEEP IMPACT, as she won it by five lengths and earned official rating 117. She is much better horse at 1,400m than at 1,600m, and we cannot rule out the possibility that she could be better horse at 1,200m than at 1,400m. If so, she should be regarded as a powerful candidate in the Sprinters Stakes, and GRAN ALEGRIA is my third choice.

SEIUN KOSEI, who won the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen in 2017, surprised us when he finished second in this race twelve months ago, since it looked he lost his form. His performance in the G3 Silk Road Stakes on 2nd February at Kyoto is better than his performance in the same race twelve months ago, and I think we should not neglect him on Sunday. SEIUN KOSEI is my fourth choice.

And SHIVAJI, impressive winner of an open race at Kokura on 16th February, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 9. TOWER OF LONDON, 6. DANON SMASH, 8. GRAN ALEGRIA, 12. SEIUN KOSEI & 17. SHIVAJI

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