 Expert - Patrick Payne | |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Doncaster Mile Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Adrian Knox Stakes
From the powerful Godolphin stable, COLETTE looks the one to beat. She has won her last two starts on the provincial circuit and this race looks ideal for her. She is an exciting filly, has drawn barrier 4 and James McDonald to ride is a bonus.
PARADEE is up from Melbourne where she looked very impressive at all her recent starts. Last time she sat wide with no cover and was very strong in winning. Hugh Bowman to ride is a positive.
BETCHA FLYING is an interesting runner. Last start she ran fifth behind PARADEE and was finishing the race off strongly. All her form is in the 1,400m range, but she is beautifully bred and should run the distance.
AMITTO is another filly stepping out to 2,000m. She races like she will relish the distance. Barrier 18 looks a concern, but she is promising.
FASCINO backs up after seven days and will need to be at her best to challenge these. Nash Rawiller to ride is a bonus.
SELECTIONS: 3. COLETTE, 2. PARADEE, 10. BETCHA FLYING, 11. AMITTO & 1. FASCINO
S1-2 Chairman's Quality
YOUNGSTAR will be hard to beat. She looks attractively weighted, especially against the other main hope CARIF. Big race specialist Kerrin McEvoy should ensure YOUNGSTAR gets every chance.
CARIF backs up after seven days but profiles strongly for this race, especially given his good recent form. Former Hong Kong-based jockey Tim Clark should give him a cosy run from barrier 5.
THE CHOSEN ONE is from the powerful Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman stable is ready to peak. Caught the eye flashing home for fifth last start. He has a great winning chance but my only concern is a big weight.
GAYATRI only just missed out last start on a soft track. The Chris Waller-trained mare is a strong staying type and has to be included with only 117lbs on her back.
MIRAGE DANCER is a class performer, having performed well in all his lead-up races. He can definitely win but needs to carry 130lbs to do it.
SELECTIONS: 11. YOUNGSTAR, 5. CARIF, 2. THE CHOSEN ONE, 12. GAYATRI & 1. MIRAGE DANCER
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 11. YOUNGSTAR
Selections – 5. CARIF, 2. THE CHOSEN ONE, 12. GAYATRI & 1. MIRAGE DANCER
S1-3: Banker – 1. MAMARAGAN
Selections – 8. OLE KIRK, 3. PRAGUE, 2. LARIMER STREET & 7. AIM
S1-3 ATC Sires' Produce Stakes
MAMARAGAN has created a big impression at his only two starts. He ran third in the G1 Golden Slipper, so that puts him at the top of selections here. On that occasion he settled not far off the speed on the rail and finished off nicely. He had every chance last start, but maps to get all the favours again here.
OLE KIRK is the fresh horse ion the scene. Trained by Team Hawkes, both his career runs have been excellent. Won a good race on debut and was then a very unlucky third at Flemington over this distance. Barrier 3 should ensure a cosy run, so expect him to be hard to beat.
PRAGUE ran very well in the G1 Golden Slipper, having been caught wide all the way. Before that he was impressive on soft ground and if he can slot in somewhere from a wide gate then he should be in the finish.
LARIMER STREET comes up from Melbourne and the Randwick 1,400m looks suitable. Big race veteran Glen Boss is booked to ride.
The distance might have been a query for AIM, but barrier one is a huge bonus and gives him every chance of running a strong 1,400m.
SELECTIONS: 1. MAMARAGAN, 8. OLE KIRK, 3. PRAGUE, 2. LARIMER STREET & 7. AIM
S1-4 Australian Derby
There doesn’t appear to be much between CASTELVECCHIO and SHADOW HERO.
CASTELVECCHIO got the better of SHADOW HERO last time, but was the beneficiary of a great ride by Craig Williams. SHADOW HERO always looked to be in an awkward position. This race seems sure to be a more even contest, but I still feel CASTELVECCHIO is better.
WARNING must be respected because he is already a Derby winner late last year and he seems to be peaking at the right time. From barrier 10 he will need to find a positive position and if he does then I expect him to be in the finish.
SHERWOOD FOREST won the G1 New Zealand Derby and in doing so indicated his natural staying ability. I would disregard his most recent run at Rosehill and include him in the chances.
QUICK THINKER was impressive last start against moderate opposition, but he did it easily and gave the impression that 2,400m would suit.
ERIC THE EEL could be a chance at big odds. His distance profile is strong and has Nash Rawiller to ride. He has been running well in lead-up races and has always promised to be a good horse.
SELECTIONS: 1. CASTELVECCHIO, 2. SHADOW HERO, 3. WARNING, 4. SHERWOOD FOREST & 6. QUICK THINKER
S1-5 T J Smith Stakes
BIVOUAC maps perfectly to get a cosy run and be in a controlling position at the 400m mark. He goes best when not pressured and able to settle into a nice rhythm.
PIERATA loves Randwick and has won three out of five at this course and distance. A first--up first should have him in peak condition. He is likely to settle back in the field, but should have ‘clear air’ to finish strongly.
SANTA ANA LANE is a big race specialist and this is the stage he thrives on. Barrier 2 is some concern but with the early speed likely to be strong, watch for him storming home.
LOVING GABY is in great form and had the measure of BIVOUAC when they last met. A wide barrier draw is the only concern and jockey Glen Boss will need to be at his best. LOVING GABY is going to need a lot of luck to slot in midfield. If she does, then expect her to be in the finish.
NATURE STRIP will probably hold the lead from barrier 1, but I expect him to get plenty of pressure. If the pressure comes, then I expect the horses that settle back in the field to storm home past the leaders.
SELECTIONS: 7. BIVOUAC, 2. PIERATA, 3. SANTA ANA LANE, 13. LOVING GABY & 1. NATURE STRIP
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 7. BIVOUAC
Selections – 2. PIERATA, 3. SANTA ANA LANE, 13. LOVING GABY & 1. NATURE STRIP
S1-6: Banker – 19. BRANDENBURG
Selections – 20. PRINCE FAWAZ, 1. MELODY BELLE, 17. SHARED AMBITION & 12. IMAGING
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 7. BIVOUAC, 2. PIERATA & 3. SANTA ANA LANE
S1-6: Multiple – 19. BRANDENBURG, 20. PRINCE FAWAZ & 1. MELODY BELLE
S1-7: Multiple – 2. RUBISAKI, 5. SANGRIA & 6. WAYUPINTHESKY
S1-6 Doncaster Mile
BRANDENBURG and PRINCE FAWAZ are highly talented 3YOs carrying 111lbs. Both horses would not be regarded as much inferior to CASTELVECCHIO, which was able to run second behind a Japanese superstar in the 2019 Cox Plate. Both should be hard to beat.
MELODY BELLE is a ten-time G1 winner, so must be respected. Her best wins have been on heavy ground but one should never underestimate a true star. Two great runs so far this preparation and seems to be ready to peak third up.
SHARED AMBITION is a lightly raced 4YO with an ominous profile to win this race with a light weight (116lbs). Chris Waller is the top trainer and SHARED AMBITION has strong form beyond the 1,600m, which many good judges like to see. Barrier 4 is ideal.
IMAGING is a lightly raced import with strong claims, but barrier 20 makes it difficult.
KINGS WILL DREAM looks well suited from barrier 8 and a soft track is ideal. Having to carry plenty of weight is my concern.
SELECTIONS: 19. BRANDENBURG, 20. PRINCE FAWAZ, 1. MELODY BELLE, 17. SHARED AMBITION & 12. IMAGING
S1-7 P J Bell Stakes
This is a very tricky race to end the day and track bias may play a part but RUBISAKI is a clear standout. She has taken all before her this preparation with four straight wins. The likelihood of soft track or worse looks appealing for a filly with outstanding wet track form. There is no better big race performer than jockey Nash Rawiller.
SANGRIA was a last start winner at Flemington and returns home to Randwick after a one-month break. Has won two from three on rain-affected surfaces.
WAYUPINTHESKY was slightly disappointing when beaten as favourite last start but needs to be considered as a place chance here.
Trainer James Cummings has a strong hand with PIN SEC, KIAMICHI and PLAQUETTE. All three must be respected. PIN SEC is first up after a long break but has won two out of three coming off a break.
SELECTIONS: 2. RUBISAKI, 5. SANGRIA, 6. WAYUPINTHESKY, 3. PIN SEC & 1. KIAMICHI
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