Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Osaka Hai (S2-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S2-1 Osaka Hai

While this race carries 291.6 million yen purse, the number of runners who have declared to run is less than the maximum field and it apparently is an open race. There is no outstanding middle distance horse in the field and it looks at least four or five horses have lively chance.

It was disappointing for racing fans in Japan to witness BLAST ONEPIECE, winner of the G1 Arima Kinen, the year-end championship race in Japan in 2018, could not handle the rain-softened ground at ParisLongchamp and was well beaten in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in October, as we expected the HARBINGER horse could manage it. BLAST ONEPIECE was given three months off after returning from France and reappeared at racecourse on 26th January, when he won the G2 American Jockey Club Cup for the Silk Racing Co. Ltd. and redeemed himself. While he was beaten sixth in this race twelve months ago, BLAST ONEPIECE has won the G3 Mainichi Hai at Hanshin on March 2018, and I am sure he is able to handle the track at Hanshin. BLAST ONEPIECE is my first choice.

I reckon the horse to beat for BLAST ONEPIECE is WAGNERIAN, winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun in 2018. While he was winless through four starts in 2019, the horse by DEEP IMPACT ran consistently, for example, he finished third in the G1 Osaka Hai last year, finishing only half a length behind the winner. WAGNERIAN spent easy time for three months at Tenei Branch of Northern Farm, after finishing third in the G1 Japan Cup in November, and returned to Yasuo Tomomichi’s barn at Ritto Training Center on 21st February. Since then, he has been trained beautifully and is in much better condition than he was a year ago, according to Tomomichi. And Hanshin is his favourite track, as he started there three times and won two of them, including the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai. WAGNERIAN is my second choice.

While LACHESIS in 2015 is only mare who won the Osaka Hai in last ten years, I assess LUCKY LILAC, 5YO mare by ORFEVRE, has potential to achieve the brilliant feat. While LUCKY LILAC is the winner of two G1 races against her own gender, she finished second in the G1 Hong Kong Vase in 2019, defeating EXULTANT by neck, and second in the G2 Nakayama Kinen in 2019 and 2020, competing against top class colts and horses. And Hanshin is her favourite track, where she started four times, won two of them, including the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, and finished second in the G1 Oka Sho, where she was beaten by ALMOND EYE. LUCKY LILAC is my third choice.

While STAY FOOLISH has not won a race since May 2018, he placed in Group races for eight times in the last fourteen starts, and has earned nearly 215 million yen purse. I believe the 5YO horse by STAY GOLD should have good chance to finish in first four in the G1 Osaka Hai. He is my fourth choice.

DANON KINGLY, winner of three Group races, including the G2 Nakayama Kinen on 1st March, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 3. BLAST ONEPIECE, 4. WAGNERIAN, 5. LUCKY LILAC, 7. STAY FOOLISH & 8. DANON KINGLY

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