 Expert - Patrick Payne | |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth Stakes Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Percy Sykes Stakes
AWAY GAME looks like the one to beat. She is a tough filly, having raced in all the big races since January. Her second in the G1 Golden Slipper is the best performance of any filly in this race. If she runs up to that form, then she looks the winner. The only query is her long campaign.
DAME GISELLE and SEE YOU SOON both ran in the G1 Golden Slipper but neither ran well enough to suggest they could beat AWAY GAME, but on their previous form they would all have a winning chance.
SWATS THAT created a big impression winning her only start in Victoria. Although she was very green she won in the manner of a promising filly. She is the fresh horse on the scene.
FORBIDDEN LOVE looked impressive winning her only start in Sydney. She is beautifully bred and is from a strong stable. She too is in the ‘fresh horse’ category and must be considered.
SELECTIONS: 2. AWAY GAME, 1. DAME GISELLE, 3. SEE YOU SOON, 5. SWATS THAT & 14. FORBIDDEN LOVE
S1-2 Arrowfield 3yo Sprint (Royal Sovereign Stakes)
There isn’t much between the top chances in this race and barriers are crucial. COSMIC FORCE finds himself in a winnable race. He is ideally drawn in barrier 6 and has James McDonald to ride. Even though he failed at G1 company last start, he has since won a trial very impressively.
This is a race with many chances and DAWN PASSAGE, VILLAMI, CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL and ANAHEED have form that ties in favourably with COSMIC FORCE and must be considered.
The speed map suggests VILLAMI will press forward and help set a strong tempo. ANAHEED is likely to be caught wide, and DAWN PASSAGE settling towards the rear. COSMIC FORCE and CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL are the two which map favourably and in such an evenly graded race, that should give them the edge.
HUMAN NATURE is racing well in lower company but should get a cosy run.
ELEVEN ELEVEN creates interest because of his excellent second to star galloper ALLIGATOR BLOOD in January when he was trapped wide all the way.
SELECTIONS: 1. COSMIC FORCE, 12. CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL, 10. ANAHEED, 4. DAWN PASSAGE & 11. VILLAMI
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 1. COSMIC FORCE
Selections – 12. CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL, 10. ANAHEED, 4. DAWN PASSAGE & 11. VILLAMI
S1-3: Banker – 1. PROBABEEL
Selections – 2. SHOUT THE BAR, 4. COLETTE, 3. NUDGE & 7. TOFFEE TONGUE
S1-3 Australian Oaks
There are some doubts that PROBABEEL will run this distance, but her class should see her prevail. She is drawn awkwardly in barrier 12, so will need a good ride from Opie Bosson to slot in somewhere around midfield.
SHOUT THE BAR defeated PROBABEEL last time and may be too good again. She is trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, so you can be sure she will press forward and will be the one they all have to get past.
COLETTE is the fresh filly on the scene. She was most impressive winning last Saturday when she produced and explosive finish to win easily. However that was a modest race and this is a tougher assignment.
NUDGE profiles well for this race and must be considered. She was not far behind SHOUT THE BAR and PROBABEEL last start and has James McDonald to ride.
TOFFEE TONGUE is still a maiden but chased home hard last Saturday behind COLETTE when she was heavily backed. The Chris Waller and Kerrin McEvoy combination must be respected.
SELECTIONS: 1. PROBABEEL, 2. SHOUT THE BAR, 4. COLETTE, 3. NUDGE & 7. TOFFEE TONGUE
S1-4 Sydney Cup
YOUNG RASCAL looks the one to beat here. He is a lightly raced European visitor with strong form lines. He has won six races from eleven starts and most of them in the 2,200m and 2,400m range. At his only Australian start he was most impressive winning with 130lbs. His soft track form is strong.
MUSTAJEER is well known by punters in Australia and has an undeniable winning chance. His recent form is terrific for this race and has strong soft track form. His two most recent second placings were behind high class gallopers, so he is hard to beat. Nash Rawiller to ride and barrier 4 are both bonuses.
RAHEEN HOUSE has to be considered following his surprise win last week. He drops significantly in weight and has good soft track form. He should get a cosy run from barrier 3.
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN is another one which will appreciate the significant weight drop. He is not a big horse so the 118lbs instead of the 125lbs he carried last week should help. Has to be considered.
AZURO and ETAH JAMES both ran in the G1 Auckland Cup, so expect them to be very fit and either one could fill a placing without surprising.
SELECTIONS: 2. YOUNG RASCAL, 1. MUSTAJEER, 4. RAHEEN HOUSE, 5. GALLIC CHIEFTAIN & 7. AZURO
S1-5 Queen Elizabeth Stakes
DANON PREMIUM has won six races from ten career starts, including multiple G1 races. We know how good Japanese horses are, so expect him to create significant interest. He has never seen a wet surface on race day, so that remains a query. Hard to beat.
ADDEYBB has strong soft track form and has the benefit of a recent run in Sydney. He has outstanding form lines in Europe, so expect him to provide the greatest challenge to DANON PREMIUM.
VERRY ELLEEGANT was no match for ADDEYBB when they met three weeks ago. However, since then she easily won a G1 race over 2,400m. She is very fit, but it is interesting to note that James McDonald has chosen DANON PREMIUM over her. Has to be included.
TE AKAU SHARK is a popular New Zealand galloper likely to settle towards the rear and finish-off strongly. This is by far the toughest test of his career, but he must be respected.
MASTER OF WINE is a high class handicapper racing in stunning form. Include as a place chance.
MELODY BELLE is a multiple G1-winning mare racing well, so is a place chance.
SELECTIONS: 1. DANON PREMIUM, 2. ADDEYBB, 12. VERRY ELLEEGANT, 4. TE AKAU SHARK & 10. MASTER OF WINE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 1. DANON PREMIUM
Selections – 2. ADDEYBB, 12. VERRY ELLEEGANT, 4. TE AKAU SHARK & 10. MASTER OF WINE
S1-6: Banker – 17. FUNSTAR
Selections – 1. ALIZEE, 2. NETTOYER, 3. CON TE PARTIRO & 9. POSITIVE PEACE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 1. DANON PREMIUM, 2. ADDEYBB & 12. VERRY ELLEEGANT
S1-6: Multiple – 17. FUNSTAR, 1. ALIZEE & 2. NETTOYER
S1-7: Multiple – 7. FASIKA, 1. I AM EXCITED & 3. SAVATIANO
S1-6 Coolmore Legacy Stakes (Queen of the Turf Stakes)
FUNSTAR is the one I like. She is on the minimum weight and has James McDonald to ride. Her race record is outstanding and so is her soft track form. Last start she ran fourth at Rosehill over 2,000m, a distance she simply found too far. Back to 1,600m and the likelihood of a strong tempo should see her hard to beat.
ALIZEE will appreciate getting back to Randwick and back to mares company. She has been racing below her best, but that has been in races much tougher than this. Barrier 16 makes it tricky but she is a definite winning chance.
NETTOYER loves Randwick and is in super form. She also will relish the strong tempo and be charging home. Glen Boss to ride is a bonus.
CON TE PARTIRO ran an excellent sixth last Saturday behind NETTOYER and was very strong the entire race. The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott training partnership should never be underestimated, especially on these big race days.
POSITIVE PEACE has won her last five races and cannot be ignored here. She seems sure to press forward from the wide barrier, but she will not find an easy lead like some of her previous wins. This is her toughest challenge.
SELECTIONS: 17. FUNSTAR, 1. ALIZEE, 2. NETTOYER, 3. CON TE PARTIRO & 9. POSITIVE PEACE
S1-7 Sapphire Stakes
FASIKA looks well suited back against her own sex. Forget her latest run and go on her previous strong form. Barrier 15 may be an advantage at this time of the day and if it is, then she looks a great chance.
I AM EXCITED has 130lbs and barrier 18, so that presents a real challenge. However she is a classy performer and if horses are running on then she has an undeniable winning chance.
SAVATIANO is building a good record and looks hard to beat. She likes soft going and has James McDonald to ride. Barrier 3 may pose some problems late in the day, but expect her to be hard to beat.
WINTER BRIDE should be included. She has recently competed in G1 races in New Zealand and ran well. She recently trialled well and all her form has been at similar level to this. Must be included.
MANICURE has barrier 2 and Kerrin McEvoy to ride. She is the most consistent mare and providing the inside part of the track is racing well late in the day, she has to be considered.
SELECTIONS: 7. FASIKA, 1. I AM EXCITED, 3. SAVATIANO, 6. WINTER BRIDE & 9. MANICURE
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