 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby)
The 87th running of the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), is conducted behind closed doors for the first time since 1944 during the Second World War. It is extraordinary circumstances and is great shame to miss a roar by more than 100,000 audience at Tokyo Racecourse on Derby day.
The picture looks like the second chapter of showdown between CONTRAIL and SALIOS, first and second finisher in the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) at Nakayama on 19th April. As GALORE CREEK, third finisher in Satsuki Sho, was three and a half lengths behind the pair, it is obvious that they are outstanding 3YO colts in Japan this year. If they stay 2,400m, the only factors to consider are whether they can handle anticlockwise track at Tokyo and how they have been trained for the six weeks since Satsuki Sho.
While CONTRAIL inherits a lot of speed from dam side, as his dam RHODOCHROSITE has 3×4 of FAPPIANO, winner of the G1 Metropolitan Handicap over 1,600m, and his seconds dam FOLKLORE is the winner of the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies over 1,700m, he is by DEEP IMPACT, who is the Tokyo Yushun winner in 2005 and the sire of five Tokyo Yushun winners in last eight years. I reckon he stays 2,400m at flat track.
The most impressive performance by CONTRAIL so far was the G3 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes at Tokyo on 16th November 2019, which he won by five lengths. And he was refreshed at Daisen Hills, private training facility owned by his breeder, Koji Maeda, for two weeks after Satsuki Sho and returned to Yoshito Yahagi’s barn at Ritto Training Centre on 6th May. Since then, he has been trained beautifully for three weeks. I believe CONTRAIL will extend his unbeaten record to five on the coming Sunday.
SALIOS is by HEART’S CRY, who finished second in the Tokyo Yushun in 2004 and has sired ONE AND ONLY, winner of the Tokyo Yushun in 2014, as well as two winners of the G1 Japan Cup over the same course and distance as the Tokyo Yushun. And he is out of SALOMINA, winner of the G1 German Oaks. SALIOS won all his two starts at Tokyo and the reports from Miho Training Centre, where SALIOS has been trained since Satsuki Sho, are throughout positive. SALIOS is my second choice.
I think ambuscades are lying at unusual route to the Tokyo Yushun and my third choice is WAKEA, who skipped the Satsuki Sho after finishing second in the G2 Yayoi Sho on 8th March, since the connections judge the colt by HEART’S CRY should be given more time to mature. He is impressive winner of a Listed race at Tokyo on 19th October 2019 and it is encouraging factor that Christophe Lemaire chooses him as his mount.
VALCOS by NOVELLIST, four-time G1 winner over 2,400m in Europe, is my fourth choice. He finished second in the G2 Aoba Sho on 2nd May and has proved his suitability at this course and distance.
SATONO IMPRESA was well beaten in the G1 NHK Mile Cup, after winning three consecutive races including the G3 Mainichi Hai. NHK Mile Cup was very slowly run race, which did not suit for SATONO IMPRESA, who is closer. As it is expected CORTESIA will set strong pace at front in this race, I think he has good chance to finish in first five.
SELECTIONS: 5. CONTRAIL, 12. SALIOS, 3. WAKEA, 17. VALCOS & 1. SATONO IMPRESA
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