 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for 2,000 Guineas Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 4yo+ 86-105 Handicap
Top jockey Ryan Moore will be looking to kick off Newmarket’s 2,000 Guineas day with a winner on ENCORE D’OR. Robert Cowell’s sprinter has an excellent record when returning from a break and he has become incredibly-well handicapped on his best form. He has slipped in the weights having blown more cold than hot last year following a comeback win over 1,000m at Newcastle. That victory was his 11th success and his style of racing just behind the leaders should mean he is in the perfect position for the final climb to the finishing line.
Cowell, who has a great touch with sprinters, also runs BLUE DE VEGA. He was fairly consistent last season and he got his reward when producing a strong late run to score over 1,000m at Chelmsford City in August. His close second in a big-field Ascot handicap over 1,000m the following month shows he’s still nicely handicapped and he often runs well on his start of the season.
COUNT D’ORSAY ended last season in great form. His 1,000m wins at Ripon and Catterick Bridge sandwiched a fine second in a hot York handicap in October. His trainer Tim Easterby has made a decent start to the delayed new season but COUNT D’ORSAY is likely to come into his own when returned to softer ground.
His stablemate COPPER KNIGHT notched up his eighth career win with victory in a 1,000m York Listed contest last July. He returned to that track the following month with an excellent fifth behind top-class sprinter BATTAASH in the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m. His prominent style of racing is suited to Newmarket so top weight might not be enough to stop COPPER KNIGHT running a big race.
LEODIS DREAM is another who is happiest on the lead throughout. He had a superb spell early last year winning his first three starts of the season, all over 1,000m. After a couple of below-par efforts he returned from a three-month break to make all the running over 1,000m at Chelmsford City. His record now stands at six wins from just 12 starts and he seems at his best when fresh. It’s hard to see how he won’t go well, especially if he’s not forced to go too quickly to secure the lead in the early stages.
A fast pace would suit STONE OF DESTINY. He likes to come from off the pace as he showed when he snatched a last-gasp victory over 1,000m at Ascot’s Shergar Cup meeting last summer. A step up in distance to 1,200m didn’t see him at his best later in the season and he will probably be better when switched to a track that suits his hold-up style better.
SELECTIONS: 8. ENCORE D’OR, 2. LEODIS DREAM, 4. COUNT D’ORSAY, 1. COPPER KNIGHT & 10. BLUE DE VEGA
S1-2 Palace House Stakes
Although now an 8YO, JUDICIAL seems to be getting better with age and the son of IFFRAAJ looks to hold solid claims in the 1,000m G3 Palace House Stakes. Having won the G3 1,000m Sprint Stakes at Sandown in 2018, his performances dipped subsequently with four below par efforts. However, a wind operation in June 2019 clearly worked wonders for the Julie Camacho representative who has won three times since, including twice in Listed company. He has a fair record after a break and handles the Newmarket track having finished second in this race in 2018, so he should run another solid race this time around.
MAJOR JUMBO has twice run well at early-season meetings over course and distance, winning a handicap in 2018 before finishing third to MABS CROSS in this contest 12 months ago. He had JUDICIAL behind him that day and with this year’s race probably weaker than that, he should prove hard to keep out of the frame again. The only real concern with Kevin Ryan’s contender is that he has come up short in Group company before, but early on in the season seems the best time to catch him.
Although only a 4YO, MOSS GILL has already had 11 career starts and steps up to Graded company for the first time. James Bethell’s contender was a good winner at Wolverhampton over 1,019m in March, but this contest demands another step up.
FAR ABOVE looks interesting. The 4YO colt has won three of his four career starts, including the Listed 1,200m Prix Kistena at Deauville last time. He’s unexposed and has form at Newmarket, so there looks to be plenty more to come from James Tate’s inmate, though the drop back to this minimum trip is an unknown.
Clive Cox and Adam Kirby teamed up to take this contest in 2016 with PROFITABLE and they’ll be hoping to double up with SHADES OF BLUE. The son of KODIAC has only finished out of the first three once in nine career starts and that came in the 1,000m G1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp where conditions went against him. Prior to that he finished second three times in a row; once in Listed company at Pontefract (1,200m) and twice in G3 company at York (1,200m) and at ParisLongchamp (1,000m). If you forgive him that run in the aforementioned Prix de l'Abbaye, SHADES OF BLUE’s form brings him right into this, although he’s unproven at Newmarket.
This will be TARBOOSH’s first try in a Group contest and although he was twice a winner last season, a giant step up is required to take this.
Trainer Michael Dods has won this contest twice in a row with MABS CROSS and he’ll be hoping to make it a hat-trick with QUEENS GIFT. The 5YO daughter of CANFORD CLIFFS steps up to Group company for the first time after two sound recent efforts in Listed races over 1,000m and 1,003m. The first of those came at Beverley where she was just touched off by JUDICIAL and although this is another step up in class, she’s not without a hope.
SELECTIONS:5. MAJOR JUMBO, 4. JUDICIAL, 13. SHADES OF BLUE, 3. FAR ABOVE & 12. QUEENS GIFT
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 5. MAJOR JUMBO
Selections – 4. JUDICIAL, 13. SHADES OF BLUE, 3. FAR ABOVE & 12. QUEENS GIFT
S1-3: Banker – 5. QUEEN POWER
Selections – 7. TEREBELLUM, 1. MAGIC LILY, 4. EVA MARIA & 2. ARDIENTE
S1-3 Dahlia Fillies' Stakes
With 10 of the last 12 winners of the Dahlia Fillies’ Stakes coming from the first three in the betting, it’s a race that rarely throws up surprises and this year’s renewal looks set to be fought out by a select few horses. TEREBELLUM returns to action with a CV boasting a pair of solid efforts in France last year. She took the G2 2,000m Prix de la Nonette at Deauville in August, putting to bed any concerns there might have been for her ability to handle soft ground, and then ran fifth in a high-class renewal of the G1 2,000m Prix de l'Opera at ParisLongchamp in October. She struck the front with 400m to go and looked like the winner for a good few strides in the home straight before fading in the closing stages. A blanket could have covered the first five home, and given she raced up with the pace for most of the contest it’s no surprise she just ran out of petrol late on. A reproduction of that performance would put her right in the mix here, while any rain that could fall in the Newmarket area wouldn’t harm her chances.
MAGIC LILY has won over 1,800m and returns to British soil after a winter in Dubai. She ran three times at Meydan, winning two G2 contests over 1,600m and 1,800m, and finished a good second in the G1 1,800m Jebel Hatta. Those engagements over the winter will stand her in good stead against rivals who haven’t seen a racetrack for more than six months.
Sir Michael Stoute, well known for the improvement he finds in horses from three to four, fields QUEEN POWER who won a hot Listed contest over 2,000m at Newbury last summer. A good gallop and Newbury’s long home straight appeared to suit as she got up in the closing stages to finish ahead of LAVENDER’S BLUE and STAR CATCHER, who went on win three G1s in a row. The horse did all of her best work in closing stages over longer distance, the straight 2,000m in Newmarket should suit her.
EVA MARIA is a bright prospect for trainer Richard Fahey and deserves to take her chance in Group company. She won a handicap over 2,000m at Ayr, coming from back in the field to swoop past the leader in good style, before a more battling victory over the same distance when upped to Class 2 level for the first time. She disappointed on her final start of last season over 2,000m on the all-weather, but excuses can be made given it was her first start on the surface and she didn’t look at home taking Lingfield’s tight left-turning bends.
SWEET PROMISE, ARDIENTE and BUBBLE AND SQUEAK will struggle to get involved on all known form, though ARDIENTE is maybe the one who could spring a surprise and run into a place. The daughter of AUSTRALIA is very lightly-raced and has made an interesting switch from Ed Vaughan to David Simcock over the summer. Ryan Moore is booked for the ride and she can’t be totally discounted.
SELECTIONS:5. QUEEN POWER, 7. TEREBELLUM, 1. MAGIC LILY, 4. EVA MARIA & 2. ARDIENTE
S1-4 Newmarket Stakes
Three of the last 11 winners of this Listed race have subsequently been sold to Hong Kong – RIDE WITH THE WIND, TREASURE LANDS and HELENE HAPPY STAR. Yet again, there is no shortage of quality in the field, and we might even have a potential superstar in this year’s race in John Gosden’s WALDKONIG. He was probably a cheap yearling purchase at 600,000gns as his half-brother WALDGEIST won the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe just 12 months later. And you could not fail to be impressed with WALDKONIG’s nine lengths demolition job of average opposition on his debut on tapeta at Wolverhampton over 1,729m in December. He is a big rangy horse so the slow gallop at Wolverhampton was all against him. But, despite showing obvious signs of inexperience early on, when allowed to use his huge stride from half-way he produced an explosive gear-change. Going up in trip can only bring about improvement and the rain which finally arrived this week is also a plus.
Gosden can boast three of the nine runners, though neither MISHRIFF nor CHEROKEE TRAIL, both of whom ran in Saudi Arabia in February, look in the same class as WALDKONIG. The rain will have helped MISHRIFF, who sluiced through the mud to win his maiden over 1,668m at Nottingham in the final week of last turf season. Gosden then jumped MISHRIFF up in class for the valuable Samba Saudi Derby Cup over 1,600m on dirt in King Abdulaziz. He seemed to love the surface, producing a career-best to come out best of the European raiders in finishing second.
Surprisingly, in view of the fact that he is by US stallion WAR FRONT, CHEROKEE TRAIL never went a yard on the dirt in King Abdulaziz and finished well behind MISHRIFF. He had won his first two races as a juvenile over 1,400m, but his limitations were subsequently exposed in the G3 Autumn Stakes over 1,600m here.
AL AASY looked exciting on his one run over this course last year, finishing third to two highly-rated colts in TOM COLLINS and Tuesday’s Kempton winner GALSWORTHY over 1,400m. On pedigree, AL AASY should improve for the step up in trip and he has nothing to fear from FORMALITY (fifth) on that first run. However, FORMALITY showed definite promise and is preferred to The Queen’s other runner, PUNCTUATION, who won his maiden on the all-weather at Kempton over 2,399m like a useful stayer but might struggle over this shorter trip.
Godolphin have won this race three times in the last five years, but VOLKAN STAR, their representative this time, looks to lack the credentials of the big boys. VOLKAN STAR, who cost 1,000,000gns as a yearling, was reeled in close home on his debut here on the July Course over 1,400m. However, he went one better a fortnight later, winning his maiden easily at Goodwood over 1,600m. That encouraged connections to step VOLKAN STAR up in class for the G3 Zetland Stakes over 2,000m over this course. The soft ground might have been the reason for his disappointing run, but he was promptly gelded and the jury is out as to how far he will climb in his second season.
LUNCIES, though impressive when winning on his debut at Lingfield over 1,601m, is by IFFRAAJ, so I worry about this longer trip, while Wolverhampton winner THE FIRST KING faces a monumental task.
SELECTIONS: 9. WALDKONIG, 1. AL AASY, 8. VOLKAN STAR, 5. MISHRIFF & 3. FORMALITY
S1-5 2,000 Guineas Stakes
Godolphin star PINATUBO will put his unbeaten record on the line in the G1 2,000 Guineas Stakes over 1,600m. He could hardly have been more impressive when blowing apart Britain’s top 2YO races last season. Having started in the uninspiring surroundings of Wolverhampton’s all-weather track in May, he went on to rattle up another five victories. The way he destroyed his rivals to win the Listed Chesham Stakes over 1,400m at Royal Ascot pointed to a colt with top-class potential. He then won the G2 Vintage Stakes over 1,400m at Goodwood by five lengths before an awesome nine-length victory in the G1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes over 1,400m at the Curragh. His defeat of ARIZONA in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes, again over 1,400m, at Newmarket in October made sure he was crowned Europe’s champion 2YO by some margin. He lines up in the 2,000 Guineas Stakes as the hot favourite but he wasn’t a particularly big horse last season and there is a chance others will have improved more than him over the winter months.
KAMEKO is the only other G1 winner in the field. He showed some nice gears when storming home in the G1 Futurity Trophy over 1,605m on Newcastle’s all-weather surface after the race at Doncaster had been abandoned. It was a welcome change of luck for Andrew Balding’s colt as he had been narrowly beaten in two Group races following a successful debut over 1,400m at Sandown. The fast ground should be ideal for KAMEKO and he is just the sort of colt to have taken a big step forward during his time off the track.
Well-bred KINROSS was sent off favourite for the G1 Futurity Trophy having bolted up by eight lengths on his debut over 1,400m at Newmarket. The race didn’t go to plan for him and he eventually finished fifth behind KAMEKO. It would be too soon to be writing him off on the back of one performance less than a month from his first race.
Aidan O’Brien is gunning for his fifth 2,000 Guineas Stakes victory in just six years – the Irish trainer has won the Newmarket Classic a record 10 times in all. ARIZONA could be the best of his quartet having landed the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m at Royal Ascot last season. That proved to be the highlight of his year as he came up short in G1 races in the following months. He couldn’t live with PINATUBO when third in the G1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes over 1,400m and, while he got closer in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes over 1,400m, he still has plenty of ground to make up on the market leader.
Roger Teal, a trainer with a relatively small team, went close to winning this Classic two years ago when his TIP TWO WIN finished runner-up behind SAXON WARRIOR. He has another decent colt on his hands in unbeaten KENZAI WARRIOR. He was successful on his debut over 1,600m at Salisbury before stepping up in grade and down in distance to land the rearranged G3 Horris Hill Stakes over 1,400m at Newmarket.
MUMS TIPPLE has stamina to prove after running over sprint distances last year and CEPHEUS has inexperience to overcome after winning his only race last season.
SELECTIONS:5. KAMEKO, 12. PINATUBO, 2. ARIZONA, 7. KINROSS & 6. KENZAI WARRIOR
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 5. KAMEKO
Selections – 12. PINATUBO, 2. ARIZONA, 7. KINROSS & 6. KENZAI WARRIOR
S1-6: Banker – 8. MODEL GUEST
Selections – 10. JALAAD, 3. MONTATHAM, 9. BLACK LOTUS & 1. KING’S PAVILION
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 5. KAMEKO, 12. PINATUBO & 2. ARIZONA
S1-6: Multiple – 8. MODEL GUEST, 10. JALAAD & 3. MONTATHAM
S1-7: Multiple – 3. BLOWN BY WIND, 1. QAYSAR & 2. POGO
S1-6 4yo+ 71-90 Handicap
KING’S PAVILION is in the veteran stage, but he was bred to be a good horse and he has proved to be one. Seven wins, plus 15 other places, has raked in his owners more than £100,000. True, he usually needs his first race of the season to blow away the cobwebs, but he did finish sixth in the Spring Mile over 1,600m at Doncaster two years ago.
ACES is another useful old-timer. He has done well since joining Ian Williams and Ryan Moore won on him over 1,400m on the July Course two years ago. Ryan is up again, but this stiff 1,600m might find out ACES.
MONTATHAM is an admirably consistent performer, who finished fourth in a 1,600m competitive handicap on the polytrack at Kempton last November. In six runs, he has never been out of the first four. He was gelded through the winter and, having got a bit too far back early on in the race at Kempton, would be a big threat if ridden closer to the pace.
Michael Appleby has his team in good form, but LOCH NESS MONSTER, though consistent at 1,600m, lacks a turn of foot. He might want softer ground and a step up in trip.
I remain convinced that there is a decent race in MODEL GUEST even though the filly is still a maiden after 13 races. She was beaten under three lengths in the Sandringham Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot last year, and she travels so well that if the jockey times his challenge perfectly she could pop up at big odds.
BLACK LOTUS is a smart mare, but all her four wins have been over 2,000m. She again looked to find this 1,600m too sharp over this course last back-end, even though the ground was soft. She is worth including in the mix as she looks to have solid place prospects.
AMBASSADORIAL, who is 0-8 on turf, earned his keep in Dubai during the winter, finishing in the frame in three of the four races on the dirt at Meydan. He was only caught on the line in his first run over 1,600m. If only he could transfer his all-weather form to turf he would be a handicap snip as he is rated 10kg lower on grass.
EXEC CHEF has dropped to his lowest mark for almost two years so is interesting. He is equally effective at 1,600m as he is 2,000m, so if fit enough after an eight-month break he could also be a player.
ALFRED BOUCHER landed a hat-trick on the turf last summer, at Lingfield (1,400m), Newmarket and Salisbury (both 1,600m), but he normally needs his first race to sharpen him up.
In contrast, JALAAD won first time out last season at Doncaster over 1,400m, and he showed that this 1,600m is within his compass when winning on the tapeta at Newcastle in September.
SELECTIONS: 8. MODEL GUEST, 10. JALAAD, 3. MONTATHAM, 9. BLACK LOTUS & 1. KING’S PAVILION
S1-7 4yo+ 86-105 Handicap
This Class 2 handicap over 1,400m only features eight runners, but it’s a tight little contest and most of the runners have a question or two to answer. The obvious place to start is the top weight QAYSAR who has the services of Ryan Moore and is owned by Qipco, the sponsors of this meeting. Richard Hannon’s 5YO did very well in the second half of last season, winning four races between 1,400m and 1,600m. However, the result of that is he is now on a career high mark which is going to make life difficult for him, particularly in handicap company. He has performed well at Newmarket before so he shouldn’t have any problems with the track and he has to go on the shortlist.
POGO is another with decent form at Flat racing’s headquarters. Charles Hills’ inmate is two from two at Newmarket, the second of those victories coming in a 1,600m handicap on 2,000 Guineas day last year. He went on to win another decent 1,575m handicap at York last August, before finishing eighth in the valuable Balmoral Handicap over 1,600m on British Champions Day at Ascot in October. He has a decent record when fresh and should put up a good effort, although he would prefer 1,600m and isn’t obviously well-handicapped.
British racing only returned from its hiatus on Monday and trainer Mark Johnston has clearly got his string well forward. He relies on BLOWN BY WIND in this who was gelded over the winter. The son of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT was a high class juvenile, finishing a close seventh in the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m at Royal Ascot two years ago. Things didn’t quite go to plan last season but he ended the campaign with a decent win in a 1,430m handicap at Musselburgh in October. He reappeared in a 1,433m Listed race at Wolverhampton in March, but that was his first start after the gelding operation and nothing went right. If jockey Patrick McDonald can get him out quickly and head over to the stands’ rail, he might be hard to peg back.
With four wins and a third from five career starts, plenty of punters are likely to be interested in William Haggas’ NAHAARR. He is unexposed and likely to prove better than his handicap mark in time, but he didn’t really cope with the step up to Class 2 level last summer. The DARK ANGEL colt was comfortably beaten by QAYSAR at Newmarket over 1,400m last August and he may struggle to reverse the form.
THREE SAINTS BAY is down to a fair mark but would definitely prefer softer ground, so his trainer David O’Meara will be hoping the rain arrives. He has plenty of experience which will be an advantage, but he was disappointing on his two runs in the spring and sneaking into the places looks his best hope.
ALEMARATALYOUM is another who would prefer a deeper surface and I’m not sure if Newmarket is his ideal track.
This looks too tough of an ask for REVICH, while SIR MAXIMILIAN, although hugely likeable, is an 11YO now and could find it tough against these younger legs.
SELECTIONS: 3. BLOWN BY WIND, 1. QAYSAR, 2. POGO, 7. NAHAARR & 5. THREE SAINTS BAY
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