 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for King's Stand Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)
Royal Ascot kicks off with the Buckingham Palace Stakes as the 1,400m handicap makes a return to the meeting for the first time since 2014. Powerful owner Hamdan Al Maktoum has a strong hand so it was slightly surprising his retained jockey Jim Crowley opted for MOTAKHAYYEL. He did look promising last season when notching up wins at Doncaster and Newmarket, both over 1,600m, and was clearly nowhere near his best when well beaten at Ascot in July. This will be his first start in a big field and it could suit him. He tends to pull hard so the likely fast pace should help but he does need to improve.
Crowley’s decision gives Hamdan’s second jockey Dane O’Neill a chance to shine on MUTAMAASIK. He completed a four-timer last summer with handicap wins over 1,400m to 1,405m at Newmarket and Doncaster. Those two victories came in small fields but he looked like he would be suited by a stronger gallop. Roger Varian’s hope is tactically versatile and he has the class to hold his own in Group races.
Frankie Dettori has been handed a nice spare ride on DAARIK. He’s another Hamdan runner, trained by John Gosden, and he deserves to be near the top of the betting. His Newcastle win ten days ago, after more than a year off the track, gives him a race-fitness edge on many of his rivals. The way he moved through the race and then put it to bed in style suggests he’s still well handicapped. All three of his wins have come on the all-weather and horses with good form on that surface often do well at Ascot.
STRAIGHT RIGHT is another multiple all-weather winner. His Kempton success in January came over 1,200m but he has got no problem with this 1,400m trip. His trainer Andrew Balding, who won the G1 2,000 Guineas Stakes with KAMEKO last weekend, has started the season really well and STRAIGHT RIGHT is nicely treated on his best form. There’s every chance he will run well at a good price.
KEYSER SOZE loves to swoop late and is very much one-dimensional as he has to be held-up. That explains his inconsistent profile but the likely strong pace will suit. The steady early pace did him no favours when he narrowly failed to claw back the winner on Lingfield’s all-weather over 1,401m in March. The worry is his form at Ascot isn’t that strong.
Richard Hannon has claims with MOTAKHAYYEL and he also has a decent second string with WAR GLORY. This battle-hardened 7YO was in flying form at the back-end of last season with three all-weather victories. He was done no favours by a wide draw when last seen in November and he has been given a high stall this time.
That is potentially favourable and could also help top weight FIRST CONTACT.
SELECTIONS: 5. DAARIK, 8. MUTAMAASIK, 15. MOTAKHAYYEL, 14. STRAIGHT RIGHT & 21. WAR GLORY
S1-2 Queen Anne Stakes
This year’s G1 Queen Anne Stakes looks a relatively open contest on paper. Aidan O’Brien is seeking a fourth victory in the race and he saddles CIRCUS MAXIMUS who looks the one to beat. Regarded as a middle distance horse at the beginning of last season, CIRCUS MAXIMUS has thrived since returning to this 1,600m trip, with a victory in last year’s G1 St James’s Palace Stakes the highlight. He notched up his second 1,600m G1 success in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp at ParisLongchamp later on in the season and with the strongest form in the book, is the most likely winner.
Jockey Daniel Tudhope was successful in this race 12 months ago on LORD GLITTERS and he’ll be hopeful of repeating the feat with SPACE TRAVELLER. Like CIRCUS MAXIMUS, Richard Fahey’s 4YO was victorious here last year when taking the G3 Jersey Stakes. He ran a blinder to finish a close third in the G3 Strensall Stakes over 1,761m later on in the campaign and then put in probably his best career performance when winning the G2 Solonaway Stakes at Leopardstown. He goes well after a break and could surprise a few at a likely double-figure price.
Although a 4YO, FOX CHAIRMAN has had just four career starts. He’s already a Listed winner, though, having won the Steventon Stakes at Newbury over 2,000m on his most recent appearance. The forecast rain will be in his favour and with few runs under his belt, there should be plenty more to come.
Owner Hamdan Al Maktoum last won this in 1992 and he has two live contenders in MOHAATHER and MUSTASHRY. MOHAATHER is another lightly-raced contender having run just five times so far. He won three races in a row including the G3 Horris Hill Stakes and G3 Greenham Stakes (both at Newbury over 1,400m) and looks progressive. Marcus Tregoning’s contender picked up an injury after that Greenham Stakes win and wasn’t seen until the 1,600m G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot where he ran a solid race in fifth. He’s definitely going the right way, but it will take a big step up to win this.
In the same ownership, MUSTASHRY is a proven top-class campaigner. He won last year’s G1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury over 1,600m and also took the G2 Challenge Stakes at Newmarket over 1,400m. MUSTASHRY is a 7YO now, though, and just might find one or two younger types a bit too good.
The forecast rain would be a concern for DUKE OF HAZZARD as his best form has come on a sounder surface, so a bigger danger may be John Gosden’s TEREBELLUM. She’s lightly-raced for a 4YO and was a good winner of the G2 Dahlia Fillies’ Stakes at Newmarket over 2,000m last time. TEREBELLUM has done all her racing over that distance, though, so the step back in trip is a slight question mark.
SELECTIONS: 3. CIRCUS MAXIMUS, 13. SPACE TRAVELLER, 6. FOX CHAIRMAN, 16. TEREBELLUM & 9. MUSTASHRY
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 3. CIRCUS MAXIMUS
Selections – 13. SPACE TRAVELLER, 6. FOX CHAIRMAN, 16. TEREBELLUM & 9. MUSTASHRY
S1-3: Banker – 5. FRANKLY DARLING
Selections – 4. ENNISTYMON, 8. MISS YODA, 12. WEST END GIRL & 9. PASSION
S1-3 Ribblesdale Stakes
We have to focus on the big two battalions here, John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien, who have won five of the last six runnings of what is known as the “Ascot Oaks”.
Gosden’s number one string is FRANKLY DARLING, who carries the Oppenheimer colours, successful 12 months ago with STAR CATCHER. Like so many of this year’s field, FRANKLY DARLING lacks experience, but she could not have been more impressive when winning her maiden by five lengths at Newcastle 15 days ago. She has inherited some of the speed of her sire, FRANKEL, but the extra distance won’t be a problem and, though she will need to improve, it was only her second run and this does not look as strong a race as last year.
Gosden’s MISS YODA has the best form in the race, having beaten GOLDEN LIPS and WEST END GIRL in the Listed Oaks Trial at Lingfield. Her trainer is adamant that, as with ANASTARSIA, his third runner, Ascot will suit her better. She won twice last season over 1,600m, at Kempton and Sandown, and she then lost nothing in defeat when runner-up at Newmarket over 2,000m.
Mark Johnston thinks WEST END GIRL has excellent win and place prospects. He reckons Ascot will also suit his filly better than Lingfield, where she got lost running down the hill but finished her race off well up the straight.
O’Brien has a high opinion of ENNISTYMON, who, despite failing to find cover, eventually won her maiden at Leopardstown over 2,000m last week in taking fashion. Being by GALILEO with plenty of stamina on the dam’s side, there are no doubts about the longer distance.
He also runs PASSION, who won her maiden at Cork last September and had a pipe-opener in Listed company at Navan last week. She improved in first-time cheekpieces, finishing close up in fourth, and it is always dangerous to rule out O’Brien’s second string.
Ralph Beckett’s fillies are always to be respected, and this step up in trip should suit TREFOIL, who was exposed for a lack of pace when only third to RUN WILD in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes over 2,000m at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting. However, she is one who would be helped if the forecast rain materialises.
SELECTIONS: 5. FRANKLY DARLING, 4. ENNISTYMON, 8. MISS YODA, 12. WEST END GIRL & 9. PASSION
S1-4 King Edward VII Stakes
Aidan O’Brien holds the aces as he attempts to win the King Edward VII Stakes for the second successive year. The Irish trainer landed this prize 12 months ago with subsequent dual G1 winner JAPAN, who had previously finished a close third in the Derby. This year the disrupted fixture list means the race serves as a trial for the Epsom Classic and MOGUL has a golden opportunity to push his claims. He is a full brother of JAPAN and he appears to have inherited the family class. The way he made all the running to easily land a 1,600m maiden at the Curragh last summer marked him down as a smart prospect, and he went some way to realising that potential when following up in a Leopardstown G2. He was sent off second favourite for the G1 Futurity Trophy on Newcastle’s all-weather in November but little went right for him. A slow start put him on the back foot and he could not get into a decent position as KAMEKO, winner of this year’s 2,000 Guineas Stakes, stormed home. He’s bred to love the step up to this distance and sets a pretty lofty standard for the others to match.
O’Brien also runs ARTHUR’S KINGDOM. He took three goes to get off the mark last season but he was never likely to thrive as a juvenile as he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree. His second in the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud over 2,000m in October on heavy ground showed this half-brother to three-times Canadian International Stakes winner JOSHUA TREE has plenty of staying power. This will be the fastest ground he has encountered but he should do well this year.
PAPA POWER has yet to race on turf having twice won on the all-weather in February. The switch to turf should not be a problem as Ascot often suits horses with good form on artificial surfaces. He bolted up from the front over 2,000m at Chelmsford City and he hardly broke sweat to follow up at Newcastle. The quality of opposition is about to get a whole lot tougher but there is no doubt he is a talented colt, who could get his own way out in front.
MOHICAN HEIGHTS lines up as the only unbeaten runner. His impressive debut win for Irish trainer Fozzy Stack over 1,400m at Leopardstown last year prompted his new owners to splash out to buy him at the sales. Having joined David Simcock he hit the target at the first time of asking when landing a Salisbury Listed prize over 1,600m in August. He is sure to improve now he tackles the longer 2,392m distance and that makes him dangerous.
PYLEDRIVER, runner-up in an ordinary Kempton G3, has a fair bit to find but not as much as SOUND OF CANNONS.
SELECTIONS: 2. MOGUL, 4. PAPA POWER, 1. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM & 3. MOHICAN HEIGHTS
S1-5 King's Stand Stakes
The proverb ‘if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again’ could have been made for Charles Hills’ speedball stable star BATTAASH. He has turned up at this meeting for the last two years to contest this 1,000m G1 contest, but has chased home BLUE POINT on both occasions. Without the Godolphin runner to worry about this time, everything looks in place for him to win his first King’s Stand Stakes. It was the same with the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m at York last summer. The son of DARK ANGEL had been beaten in 2017 and 2018 before making it third time lucky in 2019, and the same may just happen at Ascot. On his day, BATTAASH is one of the fastest (if not the fastest) horses in the world and an added bonus for his supporters is that this meeting is behind closed doors. He can sometimes get worked up beforehand but everything is going to be calmer at Royal Ascot this year.
Hills also runs EQUILATERAL who was well beaten in seventh in this race 12 months ago. The 5YO has some decent form, though, including when winning a 1,000m Listed handicap at Meydan in January before finishing a close second in a G2 over the same track and trip. Although he doesn’t have a great record at Ascot so far, this looks a weak renewal of this race and he could run into a place.
The one horse who could be quite overpriced is Clive Cox’s TIS MARVELLOUS who has an excellent record over this course and distance. He has contested some top races with big fields at the Berkshire track and his record reads 4641214. Most of those starts have been over 1,200m but his three efforts over the minimum distance have resulted in two wins and a fourth last October on unsuitably soft ground.
Northern trainer Kevin Ryan does very well with his sprinters but he is yet to win this G1 prize. His 4YO filly GLASS SLIPPERS won the G1 Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp over 1,000m at ParisLongchamp in October which was her third straight win in France. She didn’t manage a victory on British soil last season, so we need to see if she can repeat her form in England, especially on her first start of the season.
LIBERTY BEACH had a good juvenile season last year, winning a Listed race over 1,009m and a G3 over 1,000m at Sandown and Goodwood respectively. She reappeared with a Listed win over 1,200m at Haydock earlier this month, but it can be quite hard for 3YO fillies taking on experienced sprinters and this is a completely different test.
An outsider who could grab some prize money is the Irish trained HIT THE BID. The son of EXCEED AND EXCEL, whose progeny have a great record on Ascot’s sand-based straight course, doesn’t win very often but he has some fair form and champion jockey Oisin Murphy takes the ride.
SELECTIONS: 1. BATTAASH, 6. TIS MARVELLOUS, 2. EQUILATERAL, 8. GLASS SLIPPERS & 3. HIT THE BID
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 1. BATTAASH
Selections – 6. TIS MARVELLOUS, 2. EQUILATERAL, 8. GLASS SLIPPERS & 3. HIT THE BID
S1-6: Banker – 5. JUBILOSO
Selections – 10. QUEEN POWER, 8. NAZEEF, 7. MISS O CONNOR & 6. LAVENDER’S BLUE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 1. BATTAASH, 6. TIS MARVELLOUS & 2. EQUILATERAL
S1-6: Multiple – 5. JUBILOSO, 10. QUEEN POWER & 8. NAZEEF
S1-7: Multiple – 4. DUBAWI FIFTY, 1. VERDANA BLUE & 11. BLUE LAUREATE
S1-6 Duke of Cambridge Stakes
One of the fillies or mares lining up for the 1,600m G2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes to have had a run this season is NAZEEF. She entered the reckoning for this race by taking the step up to Listed company in her stride at Kempton over 1,600m, finishing the race off with a late, strong run after a fairly awkward trip. Given the all-weather surface was riding slow that day, and she was pushed three-wide rounding the home turn, it was a taking performance to come from the rear of the field and pick up her rivals late on, including multiple G1 1,600m winner BILLESDON BROOK. This looks a much hotter race, though, with the likes of JUBILOSO, MISS O CONNOR and LAVENDER’S BLUE all boasting very strong form from last year.
JUBILOSO represents Sir Michael Stoute, who has a great record with improving horses from three to four, and she will be looking to build on her third in last year’s G1 1,600m Coronation Stakes. Finishing third in that race on just her third career start was a huge effort, and though she failed to follow that up with a win in either the G3 1,400m Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood or the G3 1,600m Atalanta Stakes at Sandown (won by LAVENDER’S BLUE), Stoute’s filly has shown she has the ability to win a big race this season.
MISS O CONNOR finished off last term with a win in the 1,600m G3 Prix Perth at Saint Cloud in October, extending her unbeaten run to four, and has been off the track since. All four runs have come on soft or heavy ground and trainer William Haggas would be pleased to see any rain fall at Ascot ahead of the race.
The same can’t be said for LAVENDER'S BLUE, who was pulled out of a race due to unsuitably soft ground in August. The daughter of SEA THE STARS prefers a faster surface, like that encountered when winning the G3 1,600m Atalanta Stakes. Her impressive maiden win at Newmarket over 1,600m also came on quick ground, while her most recent run, finishing fourth in the G1 1,600m Sun Chariot Stakes, was a good effort considering the step up in class and softer conditions. A stiff mile at Ascot should suit, though she’s also expected to get further as the season goes on.
QUEEN POWER, last seen running second in the 2,000m G2 Dahlia Fillies' Stakes ten days ago, may have an edge of race fitness over her rivals and would also be expected to be there or thereabouts. After four straight starts over distances between 2,000m to 2,392m, the step back in trip to 1,600m doesn’t seem the most straightforward move, but races at Royal Ascot are usually run at a good gallop so her stamina will come into play.
SELECTIONS: 5. JUBILOSO, 10. QUEEN POWER, 8. NAZEEF, 7. MISS O CONNOR & 6. LAVENDER'S BLUE
S1-7 Ascot Stakes (Handicap)
Ian Williams ended the Irish sequence of five consecutive wins in this 3,991m handicap last year, and with no representative from across the water this time, the trainer is fancying his chances of an encore, courtesy of BLUE LAUREATE.
MOON KING just got the better of BLUE LAUREATE, ROCHESTER HOUSE and the Williams-trained MANCINI in an enthralling scrap up the straight at Haydock over 3,241m. However, that trip is as far as MOON KING has gone, whereas BLUE LAUREATE has shown he stays 4,561m over jumps. When the leaders have to dig deep in the last 600m, his proven stamina might give him the edge over the other three.
Another guaranteed to stay is DUBAWI FIFTY, who was the only British-trained horse to finish in the first five when runner-up in this race two years ago off the same mark. DUBAWI FIFTY has also finished in the frame in a Cesarewitch (3,600m), a Chester Cup (3,600m) and been pipped close home by WHO DARES WINS in a Northumberland Plate (3,251m), three of the biggest staying handicaps in the UK. The booking of the ultra-strong Adam Kirby is also a plus.
Michael Tabor has recently bought Nicky Henderson’s classy hurdler VERDANA BLUE, so has claimed Ryan Moore. This mare has won seven races over jumps but is very much ground dependent, so any rain would be a huge negative. Furthermore, while VERDANA BLUE is not short of the best over jumps, having beaten Champion Hurdle winner BUVEUR D’AIR in a Christmas Hurdle at Kempton over 3,200m, she has struggled when attempting further in the top grade.
SUMMER MOON produced a career-best performance to finish third in last year’s Cesarewitch over 3,600m at Newmarket last October. In what was his first attempt at that extreme trip, SUMMER MOON tried to run the field ragged from the front and was only worn down at the top of the hill, being beaten only half a length. He has since been gelded and apparently thrived for a winter break.
After an eight month absence, LAND OF OZ made a pleasing return to finish second at Chelmsford City over 2,800m recently. He was previously a winner over 3,600m at Newmarket and looks a dour stayer.
An interesting German recruit is David Pipe’s YAA SALAAM, who dipped his toes in Pattern waters over shorter trips in his homeland, where he won five races. Pipe had him gelded and gave him a wind operation, and YAA SALAAM has been placed in five of his six races over hurdles for his new yard, finishing second at Taunton over 3,295m just before racing was suspended. His stamina for this endurance test is taken on trust, but he has the right profile for the race.
SELECTIONS: 4. DUBAWI FIFTY, 1. VERDANA BLUE, 11. BLUE LAUREATE, 2. SUMMER MOON & 7. YAA SALAAM
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