 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prince of Wales's Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Silver Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap)
This will be the first running of a consolation race for those horses that didn’t make the cut for the Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap). It’s sure to be a similar dash down Ascot’s straight 1,600m course with runners spread right across the track. OUZO rattled up a hat-trick of wins last summer and he posted a cracking return to action when runner-up over 1,600m at Newmarket. He looked likely to make it a fourth career success when hitting the front 200m from home but he was nailed right on the line by the fast-finishing BELL ROCK. The front pair were well clear of the third-placed horse so the form looks good. He wouldn’t mind if Ascot was hit by a drop of rain and top-class jockey Ryan Moore has kept the ride.
Front-running ZHUI FENG was fourth in that Newmarket race. The run should have put a fitness edge on him and he is well weighted on his best form. Amanda Perrett’s star won the Royal Hunt Cup at this meeting three years ago and it shows how far he has slipped in the handicap that he now gets into the consolation race. He got an unusually easy time on the front end that day and it’s hard to think it will drop that kindly for him again.
ZHUI FENG is among a few runners drawn in a high stall who like to force the pace. That should ensure a decent gallop for those drawn on the stands’ side and that will help ALMUFTI. He doesn’t always get the fast pace he needs and he is relatively unexposed over 1,600m. His two wins over 1,601m at Lingfield in the winter show he is thriving for it. With top jockey James Doyle booked by trainer Hugo Palmer, ALMUFTI has plenty going for him.
PRESIDENTIAL makes a quick return after winning at Doncaster last weekend. That victory was over 1,405m and he is yet to win over this longer 1,600m distance.
Mark Johnston’s MAYDANNY is another to arrive race-fit having easily landed a Yarmouth handicap over 1,603m on firm ground two weeks ago. He has plenty of potential but, after just three runs, his inexperience has to be a concern. His stablemate SMILE A MILE was tried in a visor and switched to hold-up tactics last time out in March over 1,729m but it couldn’t stop him finishing runner-up for his fourth successive race. He is clearly consistent and his profile gives him place claims.
SIR BUSKER swooped late to make a winning comeback over 1,605m at Newcastle. He’s not had many chances over this distance and the race should set up nicely for his hold-up style.
SELECTIONS: 15. OUZO, 17. MAYDANNY, 16. ALMUFTI, 11. SMILE A MILE & 7. ZHUI FENG
S2-2 Hampton Court Stakes
An intriguing G3 contest for 3YO which sees many of them step up to 1,993m for the first time. The best form is brought to the table by JUAN ELCANO who ran a cracking race to finish fifth in the G1 2,000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket over 1,600m. He was only beaten four lengths by KAMEKO that day and the son of FRANKEL is bred to improve again for this step up in trip.
Things didn’t go to plan that day for KENZAI WARRIOR who lost his unbeaten record at Newmarket when nearly unseating jockey Jason Watson on exiting the barriers. He didn’t run too badly considering he had such a terrible start and he looks sure to outrun his odds despite having to shoulder a penalty. Roger Teal only has a small string of horses, but he does extremely well with his limited numbers and this son of G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner KARAKONTIE was a G3 winner as a 2YO over 1,400m.
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute is a master at preparing one for Royal Ascot and his lightly raced FIRST RECEIVER couldn’t have been any more impressive when winning a minor maiden over 1,600m at Kempton earlier in the month. He won by seven lengths that day and is another bred to improve for this additional 400m.
RUSSIAN EMPEROR was sent off a warm favourite for last week's G3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes over 2,000m. He only just failed to real in front-running stablemate CORMORANT and has to be respected from the all-powerful Aidan O’Brien stable.
His stablemate NEW WORLD TAPESTRY looks to be in the field to act as a pacemaker for RUSSIAN EMPEROR who will relish a strong pace. He looks all about stamina and will need even further over time. Despite the fact that he reappears so quickly after that recent run, he looks sure to make his presence felt.
Andrew Balding has begun this Flat season in great form and his BERLIN TANGO has to be on the shortlist too after winning over 1,999m at Kempton last time. He saw out the trip out really well that day, but may find this a bit tougher having to shoulder a penalty.
MASCAT makes his seasonal reappearance having won a 1,600m maiden at Newmarket on his last start as a 2YO. This looks a pretty stiff assignment first time up.
KING CARNEY appeared not to stay the 2,321m trip at Lingfield last time and may appreciate this drop in distance, although he has a bit to prove in this class.
SELECTIONS: 4. JUAN ELCANO, 8. RUSSIAN EMPEROR, 2. KENZAI WARRIOR, 3. FIRST RECEIVER & 1. BERLIN TANGO
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2: Banker – 4. JUAN ELCANO
Selections – 8. RUSSIAN EMPEROR, 2. KENZAI WARRIOR, 3. FIRST RECEIVER &1. BERLIN TANGO
S2-3: Banker – 13. KIPPS
Selections – 7. HUKUM, 17. WIN O’CLOCK, 3. BRIGHT MELODY & 8. TO NATHANIEL
S2-3 King George V Stakes (Handicap)
This 2,392m handicap for 3YOs has been won by some good horses over the years, not least PRIMITIVO in 2016 who became GOLD MOUNT when moving to Hong Kong and ended up being G1 placed. Interestingly, a wide draw has been no barrier to success, with eight of the last nine winners coming from a double figure stall.
Hughie Morrison nearly won this prize two years ago when CORGI was beaten a neck by BAGHDAD but compensation could await here with KIPPS. The son of WAR COMMAND, who has plenty of stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree, won a novice race at Lingfield over 2,000m at Christmas. He reappeared with a gutsy effort at Haydock over 2,038m, earlier this month to go down by a nose. The ground was perhaps a little too soft for him that day, so if the rain stays away it will definitely improve his chances. He looks to be on a fair mark and from what should be a good draw in stall 12, he has to be high up on the shortlist.
Similar comments apply to Roger Charlton’s WIN O’CLOCK who was very impressive when winning a 2,038m handicap at Haydock at the start of last week. He had no problem with the good-to-soft ground that day and with only a small rise in the weights, he could still be very well-handicapped. Jockey Hollie Doyle had a brilliant time of things over the winter and she has started the new season with a bang. A first Royal Ascot winner would mean the world to her.
People were rubbing their eyes in disbelief when HUKUM came from the clouds to win a 1,600m novice race at Kempton in November. He showed a tremendous turn of pace to reel in the favourite and the son of SEA THE STARS could easily turn out to be a Group horse.
Charlie Appleby’s horses are in flying form so his BRIGHT MELODY has to be considered. A winner of a 2,000m novice event at Chelmsford City on debut in January, his second career start was a respectable third to BERLIN TANGO in the G3 Classic Trial Stakes over 1,999m at Kempton earlier this month. That was a big step up in class and Appleby has reached for a pair of cheekpieces to aid his concentration.
John Gosden will be hoping for a big run from TO NATHANIEL who is making his first start on turf. He won a 2,399m handicap at Kempton last week and being by NATHANIEL, you’d expect any rain to be a bonus.
Mark Johnston has won this six times and he fires four bullets in KING’S CAPER, SUBJECTIVIST, TRUMPET MAN and GLENTIES. KING’S CAPER, the mount of Frankie Dettori, could be the best of the four, although his draw in barrier 5 might be a problem.
SELECTIONS: 13. KIPPS, 7. HUKUM, 17. WIN O'CLOCK, 3. BRIGHT MELODY & 8. TO NATHANIEL
S2-4 Prince of Wales's Stakes
OUIJA BOARD, DUKE OF MARMALADE, THE FUGUE and HIGHLAND REEL are just some of the names on the 1,993m G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes’ prestigious roll of honour. This year’s renewal looks another strong contest on paper with a small but select field of seven runners going to post.
They are headed by JAPAN who seeks to give his trainer Aidan O’Brien a fourth win in the race. The son of GALILEO had a great 3YO season, winning three out of six starts which included an emphatic victory in the G2 King Edward VII Stakes at the royal meeting over 2,392m. He won two G1s subsequently at ParisLongchamp (2,400m) and York (2,051m), and was a respectable fourth in in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe over 2,400m on his most recent outing. If he’s at peak fitness, he’ll be very hard to beat.
Charlie Appleby is looking for his first win in the race and the Godolphin trainer will be relying on BARNEY ROY to bring home the gold. He comes into this off the back of two impressive wins over 1,800m in Meydan, and given the way he won those two races, he still looks like he has plenty to offer in this sphere. However, disappointing results in his last three runs at Ascot leave a question mark.
William Haggas’ ADDEYBB made headlines with an emphatic campaign in Australia over the winter. He was victorious twice at G1 level (both 2,000m) and looks a viable candidate to upset JAPAN. Having won the Listed Wolferton Stakes over 1,993m last year, he is proven over this course and distance, though his form shows that he’s much better suited when the ground is soft.
Andrew Balding’s BANGKOK has been largely consistent, winning at both Listed (Lingfield 2,000m) and G3 level (Sandown 2,000m). He was beaten when odds-on last time and has struggled against this company before.
LORD NORTH comes into this in good form having won the G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes over 2,038m at Haydock last time. This G1 contest is the strongest race he’s run in his career so far, but he’s progressive and looks as interesting contender.
Stablemate MEHDAAYIH will be ridden by Frankie Dettori. John Gosden has an impressive collection of winning fillies this season and MEHDAAYIH is another. She went off favourite for the 2,405m G1 Oaks Stakes at Epsom last season and looked to have the G1 Nassau Stakes over 1,979m at Goodwood at her mercy too before being reeled in by DEIRDRE. She wasn’t as good on her two starts after that, but she’s talented and any Gosden and Dettori runner needs to be respected.
HEADMAN was progressive last season, winning three times including two G2s at Saint Cloud and Deauville (both 2,000m). He was quietly fancied for the 2,000m G1 Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on his last start and didn’t run too badly to finish fifth. It would take a career best to win this but he’s a horse with plenty of potential.
SELECTIONS: 5. JAPAN, 1. ADDEYBB, 4. HEADMAN, 3. BARNEY ROY & 7. MEHDAAYIH
S2-5 Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap)
Notoriously one of the hardest races to find the winner of, the 2020 running of the 1,600m Royal Hunt Cup looks no different. John Gosden looks to hold a very strong hand in the race with the champion trainer saddling ALRAJAA, LORD TENNYSON and BEATBOXER.
Top-weight ALRAJAA is a typically progressive Gosden representative who comes into this having won his last four. His most recent win, a three and a quarter length success in a 1,601m Lingfield handicap, looks strong form with a couple of the horses he beat having won subsequently. He’s still unexposed and is clearly improving, but his latest rise in the weights demands more again.
Speaking of unexposed Gosden contenders, that is very much the case with LORD TENNYSON who has had just two career starts. He was a good winner of a novice contest at Chelmsford City over 1,600m on his debut, before finishing second in the 1,600m Listed Paradise Stakes at Newmarket on his most recent outing just ahead of VALE OF KENT. The 4YO gelding could a Group horse in a handicap and has to be respected with Frankie Dettori in the saddle.
Gosden’s final contender is BEATBOXER who hasn’t been seen since finishing down the field in a 1,600m Newmarket handicap last season. The son of SCAT DADDY has been gelded since and would be a contender if he could rediscover the form which saw him go off favourite for the 1,600m G2 Royal Lodge Stakes in 2018.
As mentioned, VALE OF KENT was last seen when finishing third in the Listed Paradise Stakes. Mark Johnston’s contender has developed into a very solid campaigner and has shown he’s versatile when it comes to trip too. The 5YO ran very well in this race last year and looks a lively outsider.
Given AFAAK has finished first and second in this race in the last two years, he has to come into contention. He hasn’t been quite as good since that win in last year’s renewal, but the claim of Cieren Fallon helps his chances.
In the same ownership, MONTATHAM looks an interesting contender. A gelding operation in the off-season seemed to do the trick for the William Haggas runner, as he was a really taking winner of a 1,600m Newmarket handicap last time. He’s another progressive horse who needs a second look as his trainer seeks a first win in the race since 1996.
BELL ROCK is another 4YO who is still lightly raced given his age. He’ll be having just his sixth career start and he comes into this in good form having narrowly taken a handicap at Newmarket over 1,600m recently. Andrew Balding’s charge ran in the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes over 1,594m last year, so is clearly well-regarded and he showed no effects of a 332-day break when winning that Newmarket contest. He shaped as if further than this 1,600m trip would suit, so he’ll need a strong pace to be seen at his best.
SELECTIONS: 6. LORD TENNYSON, 22. MONTATHAM, 1. ALRAJAA, 4. VALE OF KENT & 14. BELL ROCK
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5: Banker – 6. LORD TENNYSON
Selections – 22. MONTATHAM, 1. ALRAJAA, 4. VALE OF KENT &14. BELL ROCK
S2-6: Banker – 8. MIGHTY GURKHA
Selections – 20. SUNSHINE CITY, 14. TACTICAL, 2. CHIEF LITTLE HAWK &11. SHERIFF BIANCO
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 6. LORD TENNYSON, 22. MONTATHAM & 1. ALRAJAA
S2-6: Multiple – 8. MIGHTY GURKHA, 20. SUNSHINE CITY & 14. TACTICAL
S2-7: Multiple – 1. COLLIDE, 11. RANCH HAND & 10. FUJAIRA PRINCE
S2-6 Windsor Castle Stakes
All 20 runners set to line up for the Listed 1,000m Windsor Castle Stakes have just the one run to their name and eight of them come into the race unbeaten. One thing for sure is that American trainer Wesley Ward’s sprinters should always be treated with the utmost respect and he is doubly represented here with SHERIFF BIANCO and SUNSHINE CITY. The former made his racecourse debut over 900m on the dirt at Churchill Downs last month and was well held by the winner despite travelling stronger entering the home straight. He showed signs of immaturity that day, which can be forgiven, and if he gets his head down to finish the job he has the speed to be dangerous.
Ward’s other runner, ridden by Frankie Dettori, is SUNSHINE CITY. She closed from well off the pace to score under Irad Ortiz over 900m at Gulfstream Park back in April to become Ward’s first 2YO winner of 2020. The yard was yet to really hit form and more is expected having been kept fresh for this.
While the US challengers catch the eye, Archie Watson’s MIGHTY GURKHA entered several notebooks after his emphatic seven length debut win over 1,201m at Lingfield. Almost all of Watson’s 2YOs have been very forward since racing resumed in the UK and you’d expect most of those left for dust in behind needed the run, but you can’t take anything away from that performance. It had that touch of star quality and a reproduction of the run would make him hard to beat, with the only minor concern being the step back to 1,000m.
The Queen looks to have a live chance of landing her first ever win in the race with the Andrew Balding-trained TACTICAL, who finished third in a hot Newmarket maiden over 1,000m a fortnight ago. The winner of that race, EYE OF HEAVEN, is well-fancied for the G2 Norfolk Stakes on Friday, while the runner-up, GET IT, lines up in opposition again. TACTICAL looks capable of reversing the form, though, given he was badly hampered when bursting through a gap before running on again at the finish. Given a clear run he could well have taken second, if not won the race, and a bold bid is expected.
The other piece of form that must be taken seriously is that brought into the race by CHIEF LITTLE HAWK and HYDE PARK BARRACKS. The Aidan O’Brien-trained pair were first and third, respectively, in a 1,000m Navan maiden last week. HYDE PARK BARRACKS had a clear run and could have passed his stablemate if good enough, so it is hard to see that form being reversed as the winner was impressive. He found plenty in the closing stages despite blazing a trail and arrives here with strong claims.
SELECTIONS: 8. MIGHTY GURKHA, 20. SUNSHINE CITY, 14. TACTICAL, 2. CHIEF LITTLE HAWK & 11. SHERIFF BIANCO
S2-7 Copper Horse Stakes (Handicap)
This 2,831m handicap is one of the new races brought in because of the enforced reshuffle of this year’s programme, and it looks wide open with 16 runners and a tightly compressed handicap. Some of the leading contenders are proven handicappers over 2,400m but are stepping into new territory at 2,831m. However, one with no stamina doubts is COLLIDE. Hugo Palmer, whose team have struck form at the right time, sent COLLIDE for a wind operation last year, and he has come back a different horse. He won a Listed race at Cagnes-Sur-Mer over 2,500m in February and then had the perfect dress rehearsal when justifying strong support at Chelmsford City over 2,800m. Even with a penalty for that success, he sets the standard.
FUJAIRA PRINCE twice finished in front of COLLIDE last season, at York’s May meeting over 2,371m and again when an excellent third in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes over 2,392m here 12 months ago. Strictly at the revised weights, FUJAIRA PRINCE should have the measure of COLLIDE again, but though he has never finished out of the first three in six races, FUJAIRA PRINCE is very fragile and has to be handled carefully. The fact that FUJAIRA PRINCE has been missing since is obviously a concern, but against that he does run his best races fresh and his stable is also in terrific form. If he copes with the extra 400m, he has to be in the mix again.
Another who interests me is RANCH HAND, and I would be quick to put a line through his last run when he started favourite for the Cesarewitch Handicap over 3,600m at Newmarket last October. That gruelling marathon is a huge test for a 3YO, and RANCH HAND is best judged on his defeat of subsequent dual winner TRUESHAN in his first run in a handicap at Haydock over 2,800m the previous month. RANCH HAND will surely have thrived from three to four, and his stable is flying.
Mark Johnston excels in these big staying handicaps, and his two runners both command respect. HOCHFELD has not won for three seasons, but he has been placed eight times since that Newmarket 2,800m success. He is not the easiest to train as he has been off the track for 13 months, but he ran a great race when we did last see him over an insufficient 2,400m back at Newmarket. He is also now on a mark below 100 for the first time since 2017. Stablemate THEMAXWECAN will be sharper for his recent fifth to MOON KING at Haydock over 3,241m.
SELECTIONS: 1. COLLIDE, 11. RANCH HAND, 10. FUJAIRA PRINCE, 12. HOCHFELD & 7. THEMAXWECAN
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