 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Gold Cup Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap)
Another new handicap added to the Royal Ascot roster this year, this 1,993m Class 2 contest features a host of unexposed 3YOs. The likely favourite is Hugo Palmer’s ACQUITTED who was second to the well-regarded PALACE PIER in a decent 1,605m handicap at Newcastle on his reappearance. He looked like the winner until the closing stages that day and as long as he sees out this extra 400m he should be hard to keep out of the frame. Palmer has booked top jockey Ryan Moore and there is plenty to like.
Charlie Appleby, who saddles both GLOBAL STORM and YA HAYATI, has been in great form over the past week. His two runners have both won twice and are rated exactly the same, but number one stable jockey William Buick has picked GLOBAL STORM which is a tip in itself. The son of NIGHT OF THUNDER was gelded last autumn and he has won a heavy ground nursery handicap over 1,800m and a handicap over 2,000m, both at Newmarket since then. He showed a good attitude in that latter contest earlier this month, proving his stamina for this 1,993m trip.
YA HAYATI won on his turf debut at Meydan in February in a 1,900m conditions event, before seemingly not handling the dirt next time over the same distance. James Doyle hops on board the son of DUBAWI for the first time and he has a chance of picking up some prize money.
Richard Hughes rode plenty of Royal Ascot winners but he is yet to train one – MAORI KNIGHT could be his first. This CAMELOT colt won a 1,600m maiden at Chelmsford City in February and then was only beaten in the shadows of the winning post in a 2,038m handicap at Haydock recently. He led from the front that day, battling on bravely, only to be cruelly denied in the final strides. He should go well again off his low weight.
Paul Cole often runs his best 2YOs in the 1,400m Listed Chesham Stakes at this meeting and last year his HIGHLAND CHIEF finished third in that race to PINATUBO and LOPE Y FERNANDEZ. That was a top class effort but he was then off the track for three months before disappointing in the G2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket over 1,600m. The step up to 1,993m on his reappearance should be fine and although he has top weight to carry, he is a classy horse who shouldn’t be too far away.
John Gosden and Frankie Dettori team up with HYPOTHETICAL who is having only the third start of his career. He was sent off favourite for the G3 Classic Trial Stakes over 1,999m at Kempton earlier this month but he could only finish fourth. It is too early to give up on him, although he may be better over 1,600m.
SELECTIONS: 8. GLOBAL STORM, 6. ACQUITTED, 15. MAORI KNIGHT, 1. HIGHLAND CHIEF & 7. YA HAYATI
S1-2 Wolferton Stakes
John Gosden has dominated the 1,993m Listed Wolferton Stakes in recent years and he will have two runners as he attempts to land this prize for the fifth time in just 10 years. His main hope is DUBAI WARRIOR who looked very good on the all-weather during the winter. The way he completed a hat-trick of wins with victory in the G3 Winter Derby Stakes at Lingfield over 2,000m was most impressive. He shoulders a penalty for that success and he does need to prove he’s just as good on turf, but horses with good all-weather form often do well at Ascot.
Gosden also runs CROSSED BATON, who was runner-up in the G3 Hampton Court Stakes over 1,993m at this meeting two years ago. He only saw the track three times last season. After a disappointing start he ended the campaign with a smooth Listed success over 2,000m at Lingfield but this is a much deeper race.
FOX TAL sets a clear standard. He made a belated comeback in September last year when showing a smart change of pace to land a Doncaster conditions contest over 2,039m. That prompted trainer Andrew Balding to throw him into the deep end for the G1 Champion Stakes over 2,000m at Ascot in October. He did not disappoint with a fine fourth behind MAGICAL with REGAL REALITY trailing in a well-beaten eighth. FOX TAL could easily be competing in G1 races later in the year and that makes him very dangerous.
SIR DRAGONET was so impressive over last spring he was sent of favourite for the G1 Derby Stakes. An impressive debut success at Tipperary was followed by an eight-length demolition of a decent field in the G3 Chester Vase over 2,457m, which is one of Aidan O’Brien’s favoured trials for the Epsom Classic. Although he could only finish fifth behind stablemate ANTHONY VAN DYCK in the Derby he was beaten just three-quarters of a length. That was as good as it got as he was turned over at odds-on in a Curragh G3 and then finished fourth of eight in the G1 St Leger Stakes. His comeback run was a similar story as he was left for dead by NUMERIAN in the closing stages of the 2,000m Naas Listed contest. He has become bitterly disappointing.
REGAL REALITY has the class to take this but he is not one to place too much trust in. He mostly spent last year competing in top races after landing a 1,990m Sandown G3 in May. His third behind top-class ENABLE in the G1 Eclipse Stakes back at Sandown in July shows how talented he is but he also showed his cantankerous side going to the start.
Unbeaten ALOE VERA returns from more than a year off the track. She looked smart when running away with a Goodwood Listed prize over 1,979m and she should be good enough to play a part.
SELECTIONS: 8. FOX TAL, 1. DUBAI WARRIOR, 12. REGAL REALITY, 15. ALOE VERA & 2. CROSSED BATON
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 8. FOX TAL
Selections – 1. DUBAI WARRIOR, 12. REGAL REALITY, 15. ALOE VERA & 2. CROSSED BATON
S1-3: Banker – 4. KING LEONIDAS
Selections – 6. LORD OF THE LODGE, 2. CELESTIN, 11. REPARTEE & 8. MOLATHAM
S1-3 Jersey Stakes
Aidan O’Brien, who had nine entries at the last declaration stage, relies on MONARCH OF EGYPT and KING OF ATHENS in this G3 over the straight 1,400m. However, while MONARCH OF EGYPT is a smart colt, sprinting looks to be his forte. He was comprehensively second best against the brilliant SISKIN in the G2 Railway Stakes over 1,200m at the Curragh a year ago, but cut the deficit to less than a length when they renewed rivalry in the G1 Phoenix Stakes over 1,200m at the same track six weeks later. Disappointing in his next two runs, MONARCH OF EGYPT failed to fire in last week’s G1 Irish 2000 Guineas and has yet to recapture the form he was showing last summer. He is still preferred to stablemate KING OF ATHENS, whose one win in seven races came on the polytrack at Lingfield. He was run out of it close home in a Listed race over 1,400m at Leopardstown last week.
John Gosden’s KING LEONIDAS looks a stronger contender. It is 20 years since Gosden won this race, but this KINGMAN colt, who cost 750,000gns as a yearling, is fairly high up in the pecking order at Clarehaven. KING LEONIDAS is two from two and he was even more impressive under his penalty in a novice at Newmarket over 1,600m recently than he had been on his debut there over 1,400m last season. This is a big jump up in class, but several previous winners of this race have made a similar leap.
North Yorkshire trainer Karl Burke is bullish about the chance of LORD OF THE LODGE, though his colt has never raced beyond 1,200m. LORD OF THE LODGE has a high cruising speed, but he wasn’t stopping at the end of the 1,200m G2 Gimcrack Stakes at York, where he chased home the well-regarded THREAT. The son of DANDY MAN looked as good as ever when strolling home at Newcastle over 1,200m in the winter, and Burke thinks he might even improve for the extra distance.
Another northern raider with claims is Kevin Ryan’s REPARTEE, who also ran in the aforementioned 1,200m G2 Gimcrack Stakes, finishing third. He signed off with a fast-finishing second in a valuable conditions race at Doncaster over 1,301m, so the trip won’t be a problem.
MOLATHAM beat Guineas runner-up WICHITA in a Listed race at Doncaster over 1,405m last season. He then stepped up to G3 company but did not seem to stay 1,600m in soft ground at Newmarket. Coming back in trip should help.
France triumphed three years ago with LE BRIVIDO, and CELESTIN also comes over with sound claims. He finished a close fourth in the G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains at Deauville, and any more rain would enhance his chance.
SELECTIONS: 4. KING LEONIDAS, 6. LORD OF THE LODGE, 2. CELESTIN, 11. REPARTEE & 8. MOLATHAM
S1-4 Chesham Stakes
Last year’s renewal of the Listed 1,400m Chesham Stakes was won by superstar 2YO PINATUBO, and the Godolphin team will hope they have another in MODERN NEWS. Also trained by Charlie Appleby, MODERN NEWS won on his debut over 1,200m at Newmarket, beating stablemate NOBLE DYNASTY by a neck. This SHAMARDAL colt showed impressive speed and stayed on well, so the extra 200m should be no problem. William Buick is booked to ride and he looks a worthy market leader.
Aidan O’Brien saddles BATTLEGROUND in his bid to land the race for the first time since 2017 but a fifth win in total. Although not as impressive as MODERN NEWS on debut, BATTLEGROUND managed a solid fifth in a maiden at Naas over 1,200m. Given his powerful connections, he has to be respected.
Frankie Dettori and Mark Johnston have proved to be a lethal combination over the years and the pair team up with GOLDEN FLAME. He made an encouraging debut at Haydock over 1,393m earlier this month. He had every chance when approaching the closing stages, but was perhaps caught out by this 1,393m trip which looks on the short-side given his breeding. Johnston always has a good hand when it comes to juveniles, and this will be one to look out for, although he is likely to be better when stepped up in distance.
Johnston also saddles MARCH LAW who was beaten by both GOLDEN FLAME and CLARENDON CROSS on debut over 1,393m. He ran well there and this nicely-bred son of LAWMAN should come on for that.
BRIGHT DEVIL defied all odds when winning a maiden at Newmarket over 1,200m, finishing a length and a half in front of the heavily fancied, MAGICAL LAND. The Andrew Balding-trained colt will have current champion jockey, Oisin Murphy, on board and will be fancied by many to run well. If allowed to run against the rail, BRIGHT DEVIL will be a danger to all as he showed plenty of pace in that Newmarket success.
Richard Hannon, whose father won this race twice but is still looking for his first success, runs both CONCESSIONS and CLARENDON CROSS. CONCESSIONS won nicely on debut at Chelmsford City over 1,400m, but this is a big step-up from that.
The Charlie Fellowes-trained FIRST PROPHET looks an interesting contender as he was impressive on debut win over 1,400m at Newbury. He looked inexperienced there, but got the job done nicely as James Doyle seeks a second consecutive Chesham Stakes victory.
SELECTIONS: 7. MODERN NEWS, 1. BATTLEGROUND, 2. BRIGHT DEVIL, 5. GOLDEN FLAME & 6. MARCH LAW
S1-5 Gold Cup
There are very few horses that have won the 3,991m G1 Gold Cup three times, but STRADIVARIUS looks a leading contender to join the select group. The withdrawal of his chief market rival KEW GARDENS has made STRADIVARIUS’ task much easier as he seeks to give his jockey, Frankie Dettori, an eighth win in the race. His preparation for this year’s renewal hasn’t been like the last two campaigns, though, as he warmed up for this with a solid-enough run over 2,400m in the G1 Coronation Cup at Newmarket. He looks head and shoulders above his rivals here and providing this doesn’t come too quickly after that Newmarket run, he should take plenty of beating.
Godolphin haven’t won this since 2012 and they are set to be doubly represented this year with CROSS COUNTER and MOONLIGHT SPIRIT. CROSS COUNTER gave his trainer Charlie Appleby one of the biggest days of his career so far when he took the 3,200m G1 Melbourne Cup in 2018 and then won the G2 Dubai Gold Cup over the same distance. He didn’t run a bad race when fourth in last year’s renewal, although he has finished down the field in his last two outings. The 5YO still has to prove he has the stamina for this 3,991m trip, while soft ground would also be a worry.
His stablemate, MOONLIGHT SPIRIT, is unexposed in this sphere having had just seven career starts. He steps up markedly in trip having last run over 3,000m in the G2 Prix Chaudenay at ParisLongchamp where he finished second to TECHNICIAN. MOONLIGHT SPIRIT ran a good race to finish fourth in last year’s 2,831m G2 Queen’s Vase and the way he finished suggested he’d do well over further. He’s won over a variety of surfaces and looks an interesting outsider.
Another horse who steps up significantly in distance is the aforementioned TECHNICIAN who is seeking a third win in a row. The son of MASTERCRAFTSMAN was victorious in that G2 at ParisLongchamp, before taking the G1 Prix Royal Oak over 3,100m on his most recent outing. That looks solid form, with the second CALL THE WIND winning a G3 recently. His best form comes with some ease in the ground, so the recent rain is a bonus to Martyn Meade’s charge.
This looks a tough assignment for MEKONG and WITHHOLD, while PRINCE OF ARRAN will need a career best. PRINCE OF ARRAN finished behind NAYEF ROAD in the G3 Sagaro Stakes over 3,251m at Newcastle recently and Mark Johnston’s inmate could run well again here. The 4YO has run a number of solid races in Graded company, including the G3 Gordon Stakes victory at Goodwood over 2,398m. He ran very well to be third in the G1 St Leger Stakes at Doncaster over 2,905m subsequently and then seemed to thrive stepped up in distance at Newcastle last time. Johnston’s runner rarely runs a bad race and could outrun his odds.
SELECTIONS: 4. STRADIVARIUS, 8. TECHNICIAN, 6. MOONLIGHT SPIRIT, 7. NAYEF ROAD & 1. CROSS COUNTER
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 4. STRADIVARIUS
Selections – 8. TECHNICIAN, 6. MOONLIGHT SPIRIT, 7. NAYEF ROAD & 1. CROSS COUNTER
S1-6: Banker – 19. ENEMY
Selections – 22. FINEST SOUND, 5. STARCAT, 2. VERBOTEN & 11. PATH OF THUNDER
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 4. STRADIVARIUS, 8. TECHNICIAN & 6. MOONLIGHT SPIRIT
S1-6: Multiple – 19. ENEMY, 22. FINEST SOUND & 5. STARCAT
S1-7: Multiple – 17. AFRICAN DREAM, 6. SOFFIKA & 13. DECLARED INTEREST
S1-6 Britannia Stakes (Handicap)
This heritage handicap, run over the straight 1,600m, has been a tough race for punters to unravel – the last seven favourites have been beaten, with winners at 20-1, 25-1 and 28-1 during that period. John Gosden captured the prize four times in six years around the turn of the century. He has four runners this time, and in ENEMY and VERBOTEN he has two solid chances.
The handicapper looks to have given ENEMY a real shout as, despite being beaten at odds-on at Yarmouth two weeks ago over 1,403m, he looked a potential Group horse when rattling home at the finish, suggesting that another 200m was just what he needed. And, similarly, VERBOTEN looked to be crying out for a step up in trip when fourth at Lingfield over 1,401m recently. He was stuck wide all the way and will be much happier over this track.
ZIGGLE POPS, who won that Lingfield race over 1,401m, had some useful form at two, but this stiff 1,600m might find him out.
Simon Crisford celebrated his first Royal winner in this race two years ago with OSTILIO, and he is sweet on the chances of FINEST SOUND. Revitalised by being gelded, having a wind operation, plus a first-time tongue tie, FINEST SOUND won at Haydock over 1,593m impressively, and he still seems ahead of the handicapper.
STARCAT defied huge odds when finishing seventh in the G1 2,000 Guineas Stakes, only his second appearance on a racecourse. Unless he was greatly flattered by that run, he is on a very generous mark for his first handicap. He had looked smart when winning his debut on the all-weather at Kempton over 1,600m in December, and his stable have struck in this race before.
Godolphin’s PATH OF THUNDER won twice over 1,434m and 1,400m last season, at Haydock and Newmarket, but in first-time cheekpieces he hung across the track and has since been gelded. It remains to be seen whether his attitude has improved after the visit to the vets. PATH OF THUNDER is with Charlie Appleby, but Saeed bin Suroor has DUBAI MIRAGE, who has headgear on for the first time, though he won his maiden easily over 1,600m at Kempton last week.
SELECTIONS:19. ENEMY, 22. FINEST SOUND, 5. STARCAT, 2. VERBOTEN & 11. PATH OF THUNDER
S1-7 Sandringham Stakes (Handicap)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner of the 1,600m Sandringham Stakes no less than seven times and looks to have a nice chance of win number eight aboard DUBAI LOVE. Though this is a very high class handicap, the Godolphin-owned daughter of 1,600m G1 performer NIGHT OF THUNDER looks like one of the potential class angles of the field who could be up to winning at Group level this season. She’s been running well in Listed and G3 company in Meydan over the winter, winning over 1,600m and finishing placed on two occasions over 1,900m, and has interestingly been kept fresh for this. However, carrying top-weight with other progressive 3YOs lurking down the card is no easy task and other well-handicapped horses are preferred.
Right at the foot of the weights are TIRITOMBA, AFRICAN DREAM, KALSARA and MRS UPJOHN. Hailing from the powerful and in-form John Gosden yard, AFRICAN DREAM looks the big danger and is expected to be a better horse than her rating suggests. She ran a big race on her reappearance over 1,400m at Newbury, beaten just a nose giving weight away to highly rated and G2-placed runner STYLISTIQUE. That piece of form justifies her place at the head of the betting and she’s the one to beat.
The Sir Michael Stoute & Ryan Moore partnership is operating at a 30% strike-rate in 2020 and they team up here with SOFFIKA. Both of her runs, a win on debut over 1,200m and second in the G3 1,400m Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket, came last summer so it’s hard to know how well she’s progressed over the winter. However, her pedigree suggests the step up to 1,600m could bring about further improvement. Sir Michael Stoute’s horses are famous for improving with age and SOFFIKA has to be high up on the shortlist.
WEJDAN has always been well-regarded by the William Haggas yard. Having won a maiden at the first time of asking over 1,200m at Newbury, she was immediately tried at G2 level in the 1,200m Lowther Stakes at York. She finished fifth, only beaten by two and a half lengths, but then disappointed on her final start of 2019 when eighth of nine in the G3 1,400m Oh So Sharp Stakes. She was third in the betting that day so clearly more was expected, and she cannot be written off on her return.
Ralph Beckett has a good record with fillies and DECLARED INTEREST entered the notebook as another classy prospect when scoring by two lengths over 1,600m at Chelmsford City on her reappearance. All bar one were left toiling in behind as the daughter of DECLARATION OF WAR found plenty from the front, showing bags of ability and stamina. She can go close if taking another step forward in what is a tougher race.
SELECTIONS: 17. AFRICAN DREAM, 6. SOFFIKA, 13. DECLARED INTEREST, 4. WEJDAN & 1. DUBAI LOVE
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