 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Commonwealth Cup Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap)
Silvestre De Sousa was very impressed with ART POWER when he rode him for the first time at Newcastle over 1,200m on the day racing resumed. Tim Easterby’s pocket rocket ticks all the boxes here and is hard to oppose even dropping back to 1,000m. The fact that the trainer was considering taking on G1 horses in the Commonwealth Cup speaks volumes for his opinion of ART POWER, who has speed, resolution and a bombproof temperament to consolidate those claims. ART POWER annihilated the opposition with his blistering pace at York over 1,000m last season and, though not yet the finished article mentally, he has bags of class and is potentially Group class in time. This week’s rain only increases his chance.
De Sousa was aboard WILL TO WIN when he broke his maiden at Lingfield over 1,201m a year ago but Simon Crisford’s colt, who was then promptly gelded, has improved since, rattling off a hat-trick over 1,201m to 1,218m on the all-weather. He now needs to reproduce that form at 1,000m on turf.
Archie Watson excels with his sprinters, and he is doubly-represented with MAYSTAR and BAND PRACTICE. MAYSTAR has proved a real money-spinner, winning at Lingfield and Southwell (1,000m), Wolverhampton (1,218m) and in Qatar (1,400m). He was only mugged on the line in a Listed race over 1,300m at Chantilly last time, so comes here on a high.
Hollie Doyle remains loyal to MAYSTAR, but BAND PRACTICE might have more speed over this shorter trip. She has already won three races over 1,000m to 1,015m and, not surprisingly, found herself outclassed at the G2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint in California.
GOLDEN DRAGON, owned by the Happy Valley Racing syndicate, is equally effective at 1,000m as he is 1,200m. He won over both trips at Windsor last year and then only just missed the frame in a better race at Newmarket over 1,000m.
NEVER DARK comes from a family who improve with age, and he put in his best performance yet when dropping back to 1,000m at Kempton two weeks ago. He has speed to burn but faces a stiffer test on turf.
KEEP BUSY has already won three races, including one in Listed grade at Chantilly last season, so is interesting with Cieren Fallon booked. She ran right up to that French form when second at Sandown over 1,009m in another Listed race last Saturday.
DANCIN INTHESTREET won on the all-weather at Lingfield over 1,201m last season, but she then finished behind MAYSTAR at Wolverhampton over 1,218m, again on an artificial surface. However, DANCIN INTHESTREET showed that she had improved from two to three when an unlucky-in-running third back on turf at Haydock last week.
SELECTIONS: 7. ART POWER, 6. WILL TO WIN, 1. BAND PRACTICE, 22. DANCIN INTHESTREET & 5. MAYSTAR
S2-2 Albany Stakes
With only 14 runners set to go to post for the G3 Albany Stakes over 1,200m, this is the smallest field we have seen in this fillies event for 2YOs since 2012. As with all the other juvenile races this week, there is precious little form to go on with 13 of the 14 runners having raced just once due to the pandemic.
Aidan O’Brien has surprisingly only won this race once, with BRAVE ANNA in 2016, and he relies solely on MOTHER EARTH this year. This daughter of ZOFFANY ran a nice race to be second in a 1,000m maiden at Navan last week, looking like she’d appreciate the extra 200m. She shouldn’t be far away but is likely to be quite a short price and there could be some better value elsewhere in the field.
William Haggas saddles GOLDEN MELODY who won on debut in a 1,200m novice at Haydock on good-to-soft, so we know she handles some cut in the ground. It was an impressive performance with jockey James Doyle, who keeps the ride, not having to get serious and she must be high on the shortlist.
Wesley Ward’s runners are always worth a look at this meeting, although he generally does best over 1,000m than 1,200m and if the rain arrives that will surely be against FLYING ALETHA. She won in fine style on debut in a 1,000m maiden on the dirt track at Gulfstream Park last month, but Ascot’s 1,200m straight course on softish ground will pose a completely different test.
No trainer has won this race more times than Mick Channon who saddles MAHALE, the mount of Oisin Murphy, in the hope of registering a fourth Albany success. She ran an eyecatching race at Newmarket over 1,000m when staying on into fourth behind SACRED who is due to line up in Saturday’s G2 Queen Mary Stakes. The step up to 1,200m will suit and she is likely to be a fairly big price for a stable which like to target this race.
Roger Varian, who has won two of the last six renewals, is double-handed with SETARHE and UNDERTAKE who both won on debut. Preference is for the former who won a 1,200m maiden at Newmarket and is the mount of stable jockey Andrea Atzeni. SETARHE looked good that day and jockey bookings suggest she is the main hope of the yard, although UNDERTAKE didn’t do anything wrong over 1,201m on the all-weather at Lingfield.
Frankie Dettori rides John Gosden’s WILLABELL, who was second in a 1,203m maiden at Yarmouth, but as a daughter of WAR FRONT she would surely appreciate quicker ground than she is likely to face.
A better option could be Karl Burke’s DANDALLA after her impressive debut success at Newcastle over 1,000m. She travelled well that day despite the fact she will definitely prefer the extra 200m she faces in this.
SELECTIONS: 6. GOLDEN MELODY, 7. MAHALE, 9. MOTHER EARTH, 10. SETARHE & 3. DANDALLA
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2: Banker – 6. GOLDEN MELODY
Selections – 7. MAHALE, 9. MOTHER EARTH, 10. SETARHE & 3. DANDALLA
S2-3: Banker – 4. EYE OF HEAVEN
Selections – 13. THE LIR JET, 9. LIPIZZANER, 7. IMPERIAL FORCE & 8. JOJO RABBIT
S2-3 Norfolk Stakes
Another difficult puzzle to solve in this 1,000m G2 event due to the lack of form – only four of the 14 runners have raced more than once. Wesley Ward has won this a couple of times in the past and has booked Andrea Atzeni for GOLDEN PAL. The UNCLE MO colt was a beaten odds-on favourite on debut at Gulfstream Park over 900m back in April, finishing second. As is the case with most of Ward’s horses that make the trip over here, he will have plenty of speed, it’s just whether he can last home if the ground turns soft.
The most likely winner looks to be Mark Johnston’s EYE OF HEAVEN who made an impressive winning debut at Newmarket in a 1,000m novice earlier this month. Frankie Dettori rode him that day and he would have been impressed with the way this big horse held off his rivals to win cosily. It was a performance that had Norfolk written all over it and the son of EXCEED AND EXCEL, whose progeny have such a good record at Ascot, should prove hard to beat if handling conditions.
LIPIZZANER is the sole entry from Ballydoyle as Aidan O’Brien tries to win his third Norfolk in the last six years. This son of UNCLE MO has been a beaten favourite on both starts, first over 1,000m at Naas in March and then stepped up to 1,200m at the same track last week. It doesn’t look like he’s a superstar, but he at least has experience on different surfaces.
After making a winning debut at Yarmouth over 1,038m a couple of weeks ago, Michael Bell’s THE LIR JET was snapped up by Qatar Racing. You couldn’t fail to be impressed with the son of PRINCE OF LIR, who incidentally won this race four years ago, although it’s difficult to know how strong a race it was. The ground was quick at Yarmouth but his sire won this race on soft which gives some hope that he would be able to handle testing ground.
Andrew Balding has been quick out of the blocks so far this season and his IMPERIAL FORCE ran well when second in a 1,200m Newmarket maiden. He showed plenty of speed that day so the drop back to 1,000m shouldn’t cause too many problems.
Another trainer who has started the campaign with a bang is Archie Watson who sends all-weather maiden over 1,019m winner JOJO RABBIT to this. He looked a nice type when winning at Wolverhampton last Friday and is another to throw into the mix.
Richard Hannon won this race in 2014 with BAITHA ALGA and he relies on COOPERATION and VENTURA TORMENTA. The former has been beaten in both 1,200m starts at Newmarket over the past fortnight, while the latter makes her debut here which is a tough ask.
SELECTIONS: 4. EYE OF HEAVEN, 13. THE LIR JET, 9. LIPIZZANER, 7. IMPERIAL FORCE & 8. JOJO RABBIT
S2-4 Hardwicke Stakes
DEFOE was victorious in the 2,392m G2 Hardwicke Stakes last year and the 6YO will be fancied to go well again. Roger Varian’s representative comes into this off the back of a slightly disappointing reappearance fifth in the 2,400m G1 Coronation Cup at Newmarket. He faded tamely towards the finish that day suggesting he needed the run, which if true, means we’ll see a much better horse this time around. He was a fair way behind ANTHONY VAN DYCK in that contest and last year’s Derby winner looks a solid contender here.
Since winning the famous race at Epsom, things hadn’t gone as planned for the son of GALILEO, who made unsuccessful trips to both America and Hong Kong. He finished down the field in the G1 Hong Kong Vase over 2,400m at the end of last season, before his fine second at Newmarket last time. He holds strong claims on the back of that, although the forecast rain would be a concern.
This will be the first time ELARQAM has tried this 2,392m trip. Mark Johnston’s 5YO was a dual Listed winner last season, while he also emphatically won the G2 York Stakes over 2,051m. He began his 2020 campaign with a narrow defeat in the G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes over 2,038m at Haydock where he just failed to reel in LORD NORTH. The way he battled there suggests he should be fine over this extra 400m and his trainer has even stated it might bring about more improvement.
Trainer William Haggas is yet to taste success in the race and saddles HAMISH. The son of MOTIVATOR was a progressive handicapper last season winning two competitive contests at York over 2,771m. He was beaten in a conditions race at Newbury over 2,655m on his most recent start, but the way he travelled suggested he’s a horse on the upgrade.
FANNY LOGAN represents the John Gosden and Frankie Dettori combination. The daughter of SEA THE STARS was last seen when finishing second in the G3 Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock over 2,327m. She won four races on the bounce last year – three at Listed level, as well as the G3 Pride Stakes at Newmarket over 2,000m. Gosden’s filly also ran well to finish fourth in the 2,000m G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, so has the ability to be competitive here. Her breeding suggests she’ll have the stamina for this 2,392m trip as Gosden seeks a second win in the race.
Of the remainder, COMMUNIQUE needs to improve after a disappointing reappearance in the Listed Buckhounds Stakes over 2,400m, while SPANISH MISSION looks up against it.
MORANDO was a taking six-length winner of the G3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes over course and distance when last seen, but he has struggled against this calibre of opposition in the past.
SELECTIONS: 7. ELARQAM, 2. ANTHONY VAN DYCK, 11. FANNY LOGAN, 4. DEFOE & 8. HAMISH
S2-5 Commonwealth Cup
It is a fairly wide open renewal of the 1,200m G1 Commonwealth Cup this year, with underfoot conditions set to play a huge part. PIERRE LAPIN the likely favourite but there are plenty in with chances and he has only ever run on a fast surface. Roger Varian’s unbeaten colt looks the obvious starting point as he bids to make a winning return after two impressive efforts last season. His win on debut at Haydock over 1,200m in May was stylish, while he had no trouble in putting the G2 1,200m Mill Reef Stakes to bed on only his second start. If he has progressed well over the winter and is able to take another step forward, then he rates as a leading contender if the rain stays away.
A number of his rivals have the benefit of a run under their belts, including French raider WOODED, who lines up here off the back of a comfortable victory in the G3 1,200m Prix Texanita at Chantilly. As a 2YO he won and was placed over 1,400m on ground with soft in the going description, so any rain that falls at Ascot would be a bonus.
Wesley Ward’s filly KIMARI returns to the scene of her close second in the 1,000m G2 Queen Mary Stakes last year, where she coped well with softer than ideal underfoot conditions to be second to RAFFLE PRIZE. She followed that up with a win over 1,100m in Listed company at Saratoga and finished the season by running on well to come fourth in the G1 1,000m Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. She booked her ticket for Royal Ascot with a good win over 1,200m at Oaklawn Park in April, staying on well to run down the leading pair on a sloppy surface.
LOPE Y FERNANDEZ ran a cracker in the 1,600m G1 Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh last week, storming into the lead before running out of steam and fading late to finish third. The return to 1,200m, a trip which he won the G3 Round Tower Stakes over, shouldn’t be a problem but there are other more proven 1,200m performers in the field.
One of those looks to be GOLDEN HORDE whose six career starts have all come over this trip. The pick of those came when winning the G2 1,200m Richmond Stakes at Goodwood last summer, while he ran third and second respectively in the G1 Prix Morny and G1 Middle Park Stakes, both over 1,200m. He’s a high-class performer who goes well over the distance and is versatile in terms of ground, so has to be high up on the shortlist.
Mrs John Harrington’s MILLISLE ran seventh in the G1 1,600m 1000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket on her seasonal reappearance and looks to have a live chance too. She won twice over 1,000m as a 2YO, before also winning the 1,200m G1 Cheveley Park Stakes on her final start of 2019. Her trainer has started the season in fine form and she cannot be discounted.
SELECTIONS: 6. PIERRE LAPIN, 13. WOODED, 14. KIMARI, 3. GOLDEN HORDE & 16. MILLISLE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5: Banker – 6. PIERRE LAPIN
Selections – 13. WOODED, 14. KIMARI, 3. GOLDEN HORDE& 16. MILLISLE
S2-6: Banker – 9. BORN WITH PRIDE
Selections – 2. BERKSHIRE ROCCO, 5. NOBEL PRIZE, 6. ON GUARD & 8. SANTIAGO
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 6. PIERRE LAPIN, 13. WOODED & 14. KIMARI
S2-6: Multiple – 9. BORN WITH PRIDE, 2. BERKSHIRE ROCCO & 5. NOBEL PRIZE
S2-7: Multiple – 9. DURSTON, 3. WEST END CHARMER & 2. EL MISK
S2-6 Queen's Vase
Aidan O’Brien is double-handed as the Irish trainer attempts to win the G2 Queen’s Vase over 2,831m for the seventh time. Stable jockey Ryan Moore is on SANTIAGO. This son of Derby winner AUTHORIZED is bred to be better the further he goes so it was good to see him land a 1,600m Listowel maiden having twice gone close on his previous two starts. The form is not spectacular but he was well on top at the finish.
He has plenty of potential and the same can be said of stablemate NOBEL PRIZE. His three brothers all won Group races, with HIGHLAND REEL and CAPE OF GOOD HOPE successful at the top level. NOBEL PRIZE hit the target at the third time of asking when grinding out victory over 1,600m at Naas last November. The step up to 2,831m is sure to help and Frankie Dettori is hardly a bad substitute in the saddle.
Most people would have expected Dettori to be aboard John Gosden’s ON GUARD but Stevie Donohoe keeps the ride. They teamed up to land a Yarmouth novice contest over 2,295m last week with a gritty performance. There was plenty of depth to that race so he is well worth a shot at this G2 prize.
BERKSHIRE ROCCO has always looked likely to come into his own over staying distances. Having broken his duck at Chester he signed off with a third place in the G3 Zetland Stakes over 2,000m. He was brushed aside by Classic hope ENGLISH KING when runner-up in the Listed Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes over 2,321m on his return to action but he was a long way clear of the rest.
His trainer Andrew Balding also runs PUNCTUATION but he finished tailed off in a 2,000m Listed race not run to suit his hold-up style at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago.
AL DABARAN has some of the best form on offer having twice been placed in French G3 contests last year. Charlie Appleby’s Godolphin 3YO had earlier landed 1,400m races at Newmarket and Ascot. He is not certain to stay this 2,831m distance and it’s not particularly inspiring that he wears blinkers for the first time.
BORN WITH PRIDE is a lot more interesting. She claimed the notable scalp of this year’s G1 Irish 1000 Guineas winner PEACEFUL when making a successful debut in a Newmarket Listed race over 1,600m in November. It wasn’t a big surprise she was well beaten on her comeback run as she was noticeably weak in the betting and she clearly found the sharp 1,999m of Kempton’s all-weather track against her. All of her family stayed really well, so it’s probably wise to expect a much-improved performance from William Haggas’ filly.
SELECTIONS: 9. BORN WITH PRIDE, 2. BERKSHIRE ROCCO, 5. NOBEL PRIZE, 6. ON GUARD & 8. SANTIAGO
S2-7 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap)
Mark Johnston has a very good record in the 2,392m Duke of Edinburgh Stakes having won it four times, including last year with BAGHDAD. He looks to hold another strong hand in this year’s renewal with WEST END CHARMER. He won comfortably on his reappearance over 2,000m at Newmarket and looks to be improving. The 4YO did not fare well on his two starts at this trip and although that leaves a question mark, his breeding suggests it’s well worth another try.
David Simcock runs DURSTON who will be running for the first time since being gelded over the winter. He has won over 2,457m and 2,905m, so his stamina is assured. Jim Crowley takes the ride and any rain would be a bonus to his chances.
DEJA is another runner to have been gelded since his last start. A proven winner at this trip, the 5YO will be paired again with Andrea Atzeni who is unbeaten on the 5YO. DEJA almost made it five wins on-the-bounce when fifth at Newcastle over 2,489m on his most recent outing. That wasn’t a bad run, although he would need a career best to take this.
Champion jockey Oisin Murphy is booked to ride MEDAL WINNER who won a 2,038m handicap at Newcastle on his reappearance. He shaped as if this step up to 2,392m would suit and with Archie Watson’s horses in good form, he has to be respected.
Hughie Morrison is partial to a winner in this race having landed it three times before and saddles LE DON DE VIE. Ryan Moore is an eye-catching jockey booking on a horse that was won multiple times over 2,000m. He was disappointing in the Cambridgeshire Handicap at Newmarket over 1,800m when well-fancied and he needs to prove this 2,392m trip is what he wants.
EL MISK represents the all-conquering combination of John Gosden and Frankie Dettori. This very well-bred colt hasn’t been seen since winning impressively in a Kempton handicap over 2,399m in October last year. Two of the three horses he beat that day have won since, so there looks to be plenty of substance to the form. He’s now on a career high mark, but runners representing these connections always have to be respected.
DUBAI FUTURE is the only entry for the Godolphin team and comes into this having won well at Meydan over the winter. He was last seen when finishing second in the 2,810m G3 Nad Al Sheba Trophy and that looks a solid-enough run with the winner that day, SECRET ADVISOR, finishing second in a Listed contest at Newmarket recently. He carries top weight and that looks a fairly sizeable task in a handicap as competitive as this one.
SELECTIONS: 9. DURSTON, 3. WEST END CHARMER, 2. EL MISK, 10. DEJA & 1. DUBAI FUTURE
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