 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Diamond Jubilee Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Silver Wokingham Stakes (Handicap)
Raising the curtain on the final day of Royal Ascot this year, for the first time in the meeting’s history, is the 1,200m Silver Wokingham Stakes. Added to the agenda to help facilitate extra runners, a maximum field of 24 will line up and an all-out cavalry charge is expected.
One key piece of form to the race could be the 1,000m Class 2 Handicap from Newmarket a fortnight ago, where the third, COUNT D’ORSAY, and fifth, APLOMB, line up for their second start of the campaign. While COUNT D’ORSAY was given every chance, travelling well before being unable to quicken and go with the leaders on ground that may have been quicker than ideal for him, APLOMB was never a danger. The William Haggas-trained 4YO went off a lukewarm 4/1 favourite and slotted in towards the rear of the field and failed to improve his position in the closing stages. A combination of the 1,000m trip and fast ground made it too sharp a contest for him and a much bigger run is expected over Ascot’s stiff 1,200m track. The handicapper has eased him a little in the weights for that run too and he rates a big danger.
Haggas has two in the race, and though jockey bookings may suggest APLOMB has the edge, NAHAARR also has to enter considerations. The son of DARK ANGEL ran well for most of the way on his seasonal reappearance over 1,400m at Newmarket, looming up to challenge 400m out before weakening in the final 100m. A combination of it being his first run back for over 300 days and the 1,400m trip appeared to be too much of a stamina test, but he would have needed the run and is expected to hit the line stronger over this 1,200m trip.
Another interesting contender stepping back from 1,400m to this 1,200m is BLUE MIST for the in-form Roger Charlton team. He was sent off a short-price favourite on his seasonal return at Newbury last week and travelled like the winner for much of the race, but had to settle for second after finding little in the closing stages. Having finished sixth in the 26-runner 1,400m Victoria Cup and third in the 23-runner 1,400m Handicap at this track, it’s clear that his style of running is suited to big-field handicaps.
Running off the same mark as BLUE MIST is 8YO LOUIE DE PALMA. Though he’s not getting any younger, Cilve Cox’s 1,200m specialist still has fairly low mileage with just 17 runs under his belt and is a two-time track and trip winner. He was ultra-consistent last season, finishing in the first three on four of his seven starts, all over 1,200m to 1,211m, while his other three efforts saw him finish fourth, fifth and sixth in competitive big-field handicaps. He has a big chance if the fire still burns and he also handles soft ground.
SELECTIONS: 10. APLOMB, 8. LOUIE DE PALMA, 5. BLUE MIST, 21. NAHAARR & 3. COUNT D'ORSAY
S1-2 Queen Mary Stakes
Surprisingly, this 1,000m G2 race for juvenile fillies with speed to burn is one of the few jewels at the Royal meeting to have eluded Aidan O’Brien. Significantly, however, while his motto is sometimes ‘safety in numbers’, O’Brien made just the one entry this year, MORE BEAUTIFUL, who looked the real deal on her debut over 1,000m at Naas. She was explosive in winning and is bred to be special, being a half-sister to G1 2,000 Guineas Stakes winner SAXON WARRIOR, and a daughter of MAYBE, who also won at this meeting.
American trainer Wesley Ward has certainly made his mark at this meeting over the last decade and is seeking his fourth win in this race. He rates CAMPANELLE and ROYAL APPROVAL two of the best youngsters he has sent over. ROYAL APPROVAL actually started favourite when the pair debuted in the same race at Gulfstream Park over 1,000m, but CAMPANELLE, turf-bred by KODIAC, blew her stablemate away. She looked very professional that day, clocking one of the fastest times of the Florida season. Frankie Dettori, who won on LADY AURELIA in 2016 for Ward, rides CAMPANELLE, with Silvestre De Sousa on ROYAL APPROVAL, who is bred for dirt and a longer trip so might struggle to bridge the gap.
There was a lot to like about the debut of SACRED at Newmarket over 1,000m where she got in a pocket early on but had the gears to extricate herself. She proved too strong for SARDINIA SUNSET up the hill, although that filly is still interesting as she paid the penalty for getting involved in a scrap for the lead with the eventual third. She was always going to be vulnerable to a closer that way, but more patient tactics are expected this time.
HAPPY ROMANCE, only sixth in the Newmarket race when not given a tough baptism, made no mistake next time at Sandown over 1,009m, winning comfortably. This stiff finish will suit her, and, though it’s her third race in 16 days, she is tough.
Mark Johnston won with his subsequent G1 1000 Guineas Stakes heroine ATTRACTION 17 years ago. He does not yet put SANDS OF TIME in that class but was impressed with the way she blitzed her field from flagfall for a five length romp on polytrack at Lingfield over 1,005m.
Irish trainer Mrs John Harrington is spoilt for choice for talented youngsters, and DICKIEDOODA looked above-average when justifying strong support on her debut at Curragh over 1,000m. It was a hands and heels success and she clearly knew her job.
SELECTIONS: 8. MORE BEAUTIFUL, 13. SACRED, 4. DICKIEDOODA, 6. HAPPY ROMANCE & 1. CAMPANELLE
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 8. MORE BEAUTIFUL
Selections – 13. SACRED, 4. DICKIEDOODA, 6. HAPPY ROMANCE & 1. CAMPANELLE
S1-3: Banker – 1. ADMIRAL NELSON
Selections – 4. CREATIVE FORCE, 12. QAADER, 8. LAUDED & 6. EXISTENT
S1-3 Coventry Stakes
The 1,200m G2 Coventry Stakes sees the leading 2YOs take each other on and is a race known for throwing up stars of the future. It is not uncommon for the winner of this fixture to be aimed at the G1 2,000 Guineas Stakes the following season, with DAWN APPROACH being the last horse to manage the double in 2012/13.
Aidan O’Brien is looking to win the race for an incredible tenth time and his colt, ADMIRAL NELSON, was seriously impressive when winning on debut at Curragh over 1,000m. He responded instantly to being shaken up and won comfortably with plenty left in the tank. The extra 200m will suit and he looks a serious contender if taking another step forward here.
ARMY OF INDIA impressed when holding off SCIENCE by a short head in their debuts over 1,200m at Kempton. The pair raced freely out in front and showed good pace when breaking away from the field. ARMY OF INDIA was impressive when staying on to get home in front but there wasn’t much between them and SCIENCE has every chance of reversing the form.
PAINLESS POTTER ran okay in that same race despite a slow start. Trained by Alan King, he has a nice pedigree that suggests he’ll excel over trips up to 1,600m.
DARK LION was well fancied for Roger Varian on his debut at Newmarket over 1,200m, but it was CREATIVE FORCE who charged up the rail to steal the show for Godolphin. Varian’s colt showed good pace with 200m to go, despite running green for much of the contest, and should perform better with the run under his belt. CREATIVE FORCE made all from the rail and will be a danger if allowed to do so again.
EXISTENT is another that looks open to improvement. Ridden by Frankie Dettori when third behind BRIGHT DEVIL on debut at Newmarket over 1,200m, the jockey stated that the colt ran green and was unbalanced in the dip. He may be more at home over Ascot’s more level home straight and represents a powerful yard.
QAADER won in style over 1,200m at Newbury last week. Ridden over 200m out, Mark Johnston’s 2YO showed an impressive turn of foot to score despite veering left in the late stages. You can expect him to be in the thick of it with that racecourse experience under his belt.
LAUDED made a great impression when winning comfortably on debut at Haydock over 1,200m. He powered clear in taking fashion when asked the question and is a big player if building on that run.
CHORITZO comes into this off the back of a debut win at Wolverhampton over 1,218m, but the field here is a lot stronger and he will have to improve significantly to be in with a chance.
SELECTIONS: 1. ADMIRAL NELSON, 4. CREATIVE FORCE, 12. QAADER, 8. LAUDED & 6. EXISTENT
S1-4 Coronation Stakes
There was an overseas-trained winner of the 1,594m G1 Coronation Stakes last year when WATCH ME was victorious for French trainer Francis-Henri Graffard. Lightning could strike twice as SHARING, trained in America by Graham Motion, looks a fascinating contender in this year’s renewal. The daughter of SPEIGHTSTOWN has won her last four races, including the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over 1,600m at Santa Anita. She won a conditions race at Churchill Downs over 1,600m last time and providing the long journey over hasn’t left its mark, she should go well.
It’s interesting that Roger Charlton has decided to run QUADRILATERAL in this just 13 days after her run in the G1 1000 Guineas Stakes over 1,600m. The daughter of FRANKEL was sent off favourite for the Newmarket Classic, but ruined her chances by racing too freely in the early stages. Given that, she did very well to finish third behind LOVE and CLOAK OF SPIRITS and she is an obvious contender here. She has plenty going for her, although she tends to do be doing her best work at the finish and might be better over further.
As mentioned, CLOAK OF SPIRITS finished second in the 1000 Guineas Stakes last time. She was very impressive on debut over 1,400m at Ascot and didn’t run badly in the G2 Rockfel Stakes over the same distance two starts later. Richard Hannon’s filly is a solid candidate, but she might struggle to uphold the form with QUADRILATERAL.
This is a big step up in class for RUN WILD after her emphatic win in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket over 2,000m last time. That was her first success since an easy victory in a novice contest at Kempton over 1,600m, but she had run well in a number of races at a higher level. She was second in a G3 at Deauville over 1,600m, before finishing third in the Listed Montrose Fillies’ Stakes over 1,600m afterwards. The daughter of AMARON hasn’t finished worse than fourth in her seven career starts and ought to run another solid race here.
Mrs John Harrington won this race two years ago with ALPHA CENTAURI and she’ll be hoping to repeat the feat with ALPINE STAR. The daughter of SEA THE MOON, who runs in the same silks of the Niarchos Family, is having just her fourth career start. She’s already a G2 winner, though, having won the Debutante Stakes over 1,400m where she had several talented fillies in behind, including 1000 Guineas Stakes winner LOVE. Harrington’s representative only got up in the late stages that day and she looks like she’ll relish this step up to 1,594m.
Aidan O’Brien has won the race three times and he saddles SO WONDERFUL and LOVE LOCKET this year. SO WONDERFUL looks the stronger candidate. She is still a maiden, but has run well in a number of top-class races, including the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas last time. O’Brien’s horses tend to improve massively for their first run and this daughter of WAR FRONT could easily do that here.
SELECTIONS: 4. QUADRILATERAL, 1. ALPINE STAR, 7. SO WONDERFUL, 6. SHARING & 2. CLOAK OF SPIRITS
S1-5 St James's Palace Stakes
Although it’s being run a few days later than usual, the 1,594m G1 St James’s Palace Stakes looks an absolute cracker. The obvious place to start is Charlie Appleby’s PINATUBO who bids to bounce back from losing his unbeaten status in the G1 2,000 Guineas Stakes. He was a brilliant 2YO, winning all six of his races, including the 1,400m G1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at Curragh by an astonishing nine lengths. His run in the 2,000 Guineas Stakes was his first try at this 1,600m trip and it’s hard to say if he truly got home, but he’s definitely worth another chance at the distance. If he’s the horse we saw last year, then it will take a very good one to beat him.
PINATUBO finished behind WICHITA in the aforementioned 2,000 Guineas Stakes as trainer Aidan O’Brien seeks a record-extending ninth win in this. Despite winning the G3 Somerville Stakes over 1,400m last season, the son of NO NAY NEVER always looked like a horse who could handle 1,600m. He’s a very solid contender here and must go well again under Ryan Moore.
O’Brien also saddles ARIZONA and ROYAL DORNOCH. ARIZONA was disappointing in the 2,000 Guineas Stakes and hasn’t quite gone on since winning the 1,200m G2 Coventry Stakes at this meeting last year. He was weak in the betting at Newmarket and a better run can be expected here. ROYAL DORNOCH also comes into this after finishing down the field in the 2,000 Guineas Stakes. He was a surprise winner of the G2 Royal Lodge Stakes over 1,600m on his final start of last season, but he looks up against it against this calibre of opposition.
The unbeaten PALACE PIER is by far the most inexperienced runner having had just three career starts. The son of KINGMAN has been very impressive in those races, although they were against far lesser horses than he faces here. However, you had to be taken with the way he put the race to bed at Newcastle on his seasonal reappearance, having looked in trouble. He’ll surely come on for that and the fact John Gosden is prepared to pitch him in here clearly shows the regard the horse is held in.
Both POSITIVE and THREAT make their seasonal reappearances. The former is unexposed having had just four starts and he is already a G3 winner having won the Solario Stakes over 1,400m last season. He beat 2,000 Guineas Stakes winner KAMEKO there and is entitled to improve again this season, although he finished 12 lengths behind PINATUBO when stepped up to G1 company for the first time.
THREAT can complete the placings. Richard Hannon’s colt enjoyed a very good 2YO campaign where he won G2s at both York (1,200m) and Doncaster (1,405m). He didn’t run badly to finish fifth in the G1 Middle Park Stakes (1,200m) on his most recent outing and although he’s bred for this trip, it’s a tough ask to win a G1 first time up.
SELECTIONS: 2. PALACE PIER, 7. WICHITA, 3. PINATUBO, 6. THREAT & 1. ARIZONA
S1-6 Diamond Jubilee Stakes
The highlight of the final day of Royal Ascot is the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes over 1,200m. It is a relatively small field this year with only 10 set to go to post and the market leader looks certain to be Irish raider SCEPTICAL, the mount of Frankie Dettori. Denis Hogan’s gelded son of EXCEED AND EXCEL has won his last four and was impressive when landing an 1,100m Listed event at Naas last week. Prior to that his three wins had all come on the all-weather at Dundalk and while all-weather form tends to stack up well at Ascot, this is by far the biggest test of his career. The rain that fell on Wednesday night and Thursday is likely to leave the ground still on the soft side on Saturday which is another question for the 4YO to answer. He is undeniably promising but looks too short in the betting for what he has achieved on the track.
HELLO YOUMZAIN is yet to win at Ascot from two starts but he was a decent third in the G1 Commonwealth Cup over 1,200m last year. He went on to take the 1,200m G1 Sprint Cup at Haydock in September before disappointing in the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes over this course and distance in October. Kevin Ryan has been pretty bullish about his chances in the lead up to the race and this improving 4YO, who handles all ground conditions, should run well. Ascot is a particularly stiff track, so when the ground is riding on the soft side it helps to have a horse who can last a little further than 1,200m.
Step forward ONE MASTER who has a fantastic record at this venue. William Haggas’ 6YO mare was third in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes over 1,600m last year and then a close second in the aforementioned British Champions Sprint Stakes on British Champions Day. You could argue that she doesn’t quite stay 1,600m, but on soft ground she has that extra bit of stamina you need in a fast run 1,200m sprint.
Charles Hills, Jim Crowley and Hamdan Al Maktoum combined to win the G1 King’s Stand Stakes on Tuesday with BATTAASH – and they will be hoping to do the same here with KHAADEM. The DARK ANGEL colt has some very solid form but his two efforts at Ascot (both over 1,200m) have been disappointing which is a worry.
DREAM OF DREAMS was only beaten a head by BLUE POINT in this race 12 months ago and even though he is making his seasonal reappearance, he is hard to leave out. Back in fourth that day was SPEAK IN COLOURS but Joseph O’Brien’s inmate might be able to reverse the form having run a fair second in a 1,400m G3 at Curragh last weekend.
THE TIN MAN, who won this race three years ago, isn’t get any younger, while SANDS OF MALI was bitterly disappointing last season.
SELECTIONS: 10. ONE MASTER, 2. HELLO YOUMZAIN, 5. SCEPTICAL, 7. SPEAK IN COLOURS &
1. DREAM OF DREAMS
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-6: Banker – 10. ONE MASTER
Selections – 2. HELLO YOUMZAIN, 5. SCEPTICAL, 7. SPEAK IN COLOURS & 1. DREAM OF DREAMS
S1-7: Banker – 9. BIELSA
Selections – 8. SUMMERGHAND, 16. SILENT ECHO, 6. GULLIVER & 22. KONCHEK
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 10. ONE MASTER, 2. HELLO YOUMZAIN & 5. SCEPTICAL
S1-7: Multiple – 9. BIELSA, 8. SUMMERGHAND & 16. SILENT ECHO
S1-8: Multiple – 9. WHO DARES WINS, 8. THE GRAND VISIR & 2. ADRRASTOS
S1-7 Wokingham Stakes (Handicap)
The Wokingham is one of the most competitive 1,200m handicaps of the entire season and this year’s renewal is even more complex with a number of the field making their seasonal reappearance. That shouldn’t be a problem for Kevin Ryan’s BIELSA who has won four of his five career starts and all of them came after some degree of a break. The 5YO has clearly been fragile to train but he is very progressive and was purchased by King Power Racing ahead of this meeting. All four of his victories have come over 1,197m to 1,202m while he has won on ground ranging from good-to-firm to heavy, so we don’t need to worry about what the weather does for him. If there is a concern it’s that he’s drawn in barrier 3 which certainly wasn’t the place to be on the opening two days of the meeting. However, Royal Ascot is a marathon not a sprint and we’ve seen plenty of times in the past that draw biases can change on this unique straight track during the week.
David O’Meara won this race three years ago with outsider OUT DO and his three runners, SUMMERGHAND, ARECIBO and GULLIVER, all hold each-way chances. It is difficult to know if jockey bookings mean anything as stable jockey Daniel Tudhope rides ARECIBO, while James Doyle and Ryan Moore get the leg up on SUMMERGHAND and GULLIVER respectively. SUMMERGHAND was incredibly consistent last season, including a decent fifth in this race, and he ran well to be second in a 1,200m handicap at Newmarket a fortnight ago. He should run well again from barrier 14 while ARECIBO is a big price but might just struggle to get home over 1,200m on a stiff track like this. GULLIVER has won over 1,400m in the past, so stamina is not an issue and he may be able to run into a place.
The other King Power runner STONE OF DESTINY is a talented sprinter on his day but he doesn’t win enough and might be best over 1,000m.
KONCHEK only has the one victory on his CV, although he is G2 and G3 placed, so if a gelding operation does the trick he is an interesting contender off an attractive-looking handicap mark.
SILENT ECHO comes from a small yard but he won a decent 1,200m handicap at Newmarket on his reappearance and remains lower in the weights than when a close fifth in this race two years ago.
SELECTIONS: 9. BIELSA, 8. SUMMERGHAND, 16. SILENT ECHO, 6. GULLIVER & 22. KONCHEK
S1-8 Queen Alexandra Stakes
It is no surprise to see the Queen Alexander Stakes littered with horses from jump racing yards, as it’s run over a stamina-sapping 4,330m. This is the longest race of Royal Ascot and tests the strongest of stayers.
WHO DARES WINS is one of them. He won over fences in February but he’s also got some smart Flat form to his name. He got up close home to land the 3,300m Northumberland Plate handicap on Newcastle’s all-weather last June and his fourth behind HOLDTHASIGREEN in the G1 Prix du Cadran over 4,000m showed he can mix it with the top stayers. His trainer Alan King is best known for his jumpers but he showed on Tuesday, when COEUR DE LION won the Ascot Stakes, that he is just as capable with his Flat horses. WHO DARES WINS is most favoured by the weights of this conditions race and his guaranteed stamina makes him the one to beat.
THE GRAND VISIR won the Ascot Stakes over 3,991m at this meeting 12 months ago. He has not been seen since finishing third over hurdles at Worcester in October but he has won when returning from a break in the past.
Trainer Andrew Balding won this prize last year with CLEONTE and his NATE THE GREAT steps up to a marathon distance for the first time. There has to be concerns about his stamina on his pedigree and he has been well beaten on all three tries over 2,800m. He became outpaced when third over 2,400m in a Newmarket handicap on his first run for Balding having left Archie Watson and he might just lack the gears.
FUN MAC is a strong stayer. He likes very soft ground and, at the age of nine, he’s not as good as he once was. His fourth behind THE GRAND VISIR in last year’s Ascot Stakes over 3,991m was a good effort but he was well beaten in this race two years ago.
ADRRASTOS has never run on the Flat but he is a regular winner over jumps. He developed into a smart chaser last year and he shouldn’t lack the stamina for this race.
MONSIEUR CO also has his first taste of Flat racing having won four chases and two hurdle races. He struggles to stay 4,000m over jumps so he’s not sure to see this distance out.
Ryan Moore teams up with IMPHAL for father Gary. He’s got a lot to find at the weights but he stays 3,200m and usually runs well when returning from a break.
SELECTIONS: 9. WHO DARES WINS, 8. THE GRAND VISIR, 2. ADRRASTOS, 11. NATE THE GREAT & 4. IMPHAL
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