Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Takarazuka Kinen Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1     3yo Maiden

The pace of the 3yo Maiden over 1,200m on dirt course at Hanshin tends to be strong. And it is another tendency that closers struggle to catch the leaders and it means we should back the horses who track leaders. And wide draw is not a big disadvantage at this course and distance.

My first choice is MEISHO WADAMA. The filly by FURIOSO made her debut on 3rd May at Kyoto and finished seventh in maiden over 1,200m. She improved significantly when she ran maiden at Hanshin on 13th June, when she finished second in 16 runners’ field. She covered final 600m for 36.0 seconds, which was faster than the winner, and it looks she got to know what the race is and what she should do during the race. MEISHO WADAMA has been trained very well since then at Ritto Training Centre, and I believe she has very good chance to graduate this class on Sunday.

My second choice is MEISHO SHOOT. The colt by LAUREL GUERREIRO finished second in maiden over 1,200m on dirt course at Niigata on 16th May and it is good performance. While he was beaten fifth in maiden over 1,200m on dirt course at Hanshin on 13th June, the muddy track did not suit him. And it is very important and encouraging factor that Yutaka Take is booked for MEISHO SHOOT on Sunday.

SUNRISE ARCHON finished third in maiden over 1,400m at Hanshin on 7th June and I think it is much better performance than his previous starts. The distance of his previous three starts were 1,700m to 1,800m, and I have the feeling that 1,400m or shorter is more suitable for the colt by LORD KANALOA. And he wore blinker for the first time and it worked well. If he re-produces this form, I believe he finishes within first three on Sunday. SUNRISE ARCHON is my third choice.

VERA has finished second in maiden for four times before and I believe the colt by KUROFUNE should have ability to graduate this class. On the other hand, it looks he does not have a gear to excel at the crucial stage of race. While I think he has every chance to finish within first four, I don’t evaluate him higher than fourth choice in this field.

MUTY finished sixth in maiden at Niigata on 9th May and I think it was not so bad performance, because it was her first start since February. And she missed the break and lost few lengths at the start of race. And then, she covered final 600m for 36.5 seconds, which is the fastest in 15 runners’ field. MUTY is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 10. MEISHO WADAMA, 8. MEISHO SHOOT, 14. SUNRISE ARCHON, 6. VERA & 11. MUTY

S1-2     3yo and up 1 win

This is allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as the G1 Takarazuka Kinen. As there is long straight from the start to the first turn, the pace of race tends to be modest at this course and distance. And it is another tendency that the pace of race is quickened suddenly when the field is running back stretch, and it is difficult to make all there.

My first choice is VERDITE, who is half-brother to CHRYSOBERY, Japanese Dirt Champion in 2019 and winner of the Teio Sho on 24th June. Although he made successful debut at Hanshin in December, when he won maiden over 2,000m by four lengths, he had matured neither physically and nor mentally yet, and he had two disappointing runs since then. However, his recent workouts in the morning are very impressive and I feel he is improving now. It is expected the ground at Hanshin on Sunday is not so quick, and I believe it is suitable track for VERDITE.

My second choice is REMEMBER MEMORY owned by Shinji Maeda and trained by Shozo Sasaki, who owned and trained KIZUNA, winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun in 2013 and sire of REMEMBER MEMORY. While he has been regarded very highly by the connection, he has fallen short of its expectation so far, winning only one race from eight starts. After finishing sixth in allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 29th March, he was sent to Daisen Hills where he was refreshed and I feel he much better horse than he was three months ago.

BOMBER finished second in allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 13th June and I believe he has good chance to finish within first three, if he re-produces that form on Sunday. Hanshin is his favourite track, where he finished second once, third once, and fourth once from four starts. And 2,200m is suitable trip for the colt by BLACK TIDE. BOMBER is my third choice.

REINHEIT has graduated maiden class last time out at Kyoto on 23rd May, which was his first start since December. In fact, when he finished third in maiden at Hanshin on 15th September, the winner was CONTRAIL, unbeaten dual Classic winner this year. He is talented and I have feeling that he will be much better horse next year. On coming Sunday, he has chance to finish in first four.

TAISEI MONSTRE has also gradated maiden class last time out at Kokura on 1st February, which was his second start. I think he has a plenty of room to improve, and he is good enough to compete against one time winners. TAISEI MONSTRE is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 9. VERDITE, 6. REMEMBER MEMORY, 3. BOMBER, 4. REINHEIT & 1. TAISEI MONSTRE

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 9. VERDITE
Selections – 6. REMEMBER MEMORY, 3. BOMBER, 4. REINHEIT & 1. TAISEI MONSTRE
S1-3: Banker – 1. OH MY DARLING
Selections – 6. HAGINO BELLEEQUIPE, 7. POLE TO WIN, 3. SILVER ACE & 5. SUAVE CHARLES

S1-3     Kinosaki Tokubetsu

Kinosaki Tokubetsu is stakes race for one time winners over 1,800m on turf course at Hanshin. The form of two fillies looks superior than the others and I predict this is the battle between them.

My first choice is OH MY DARLING, 3YO filly by DEEP IMPACT. Her first start of season was the G3 Shinzan Kinen and she finished fourth running against colts. CORTESIA, the third finisher of Shinzan Kinen, won the G3 Kisaragi Sho next start, and I believe OH MY DARLING’s performance in that race should be regarded highly. And she finished second in allowance race for one time winners at Kyoto on 23rd May, beaten nose by the winner, and finished second again in allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 6th June. While I think the best trip for her is 1,600m, Yutaka Take on her saddle should be able to find another gear to stay extra 200m. 

My second choice is HAGINO BELLEEQUIPE, 4YO filly by HARBINGER. She started three times at the beginning of current season, all of which are allowance race for one time winners, and finished third in all three starts. Her form proves that she is competitive at this class. When she was 3YO, she finished second twice in maiden over 1,800m at Hanshin, and I believe this course and distance is her favourite trip. Although she has not started since February, she is trained well at Ritto Training Centre and I reckon she is ready to run her race.       

POLE TO WIN was given three-months off to refresh from January to April, after having five disappointing starts, and the 3YO colt by VICTOIRE PISA is now much better horse than he was. Since he returned to action, he started three times and finished within first three at every race. He won maiden over 1,800m at Kyoto decisively on 30th May and I feel he is now ready to compete in higher class. POLE TO WIN is my third choice.

I believe SILVER ACE has chance to finish within first four here, if the 3YO colt by WORLD ACE re-produces his form when he finished third in allowance race for one time winners over 1,800 on turf course at Kyoto in February. SILVER ACE is my fourth choice.

SUAVE CHARLES was beaten eleventh in allowance race for one time winners at Fukushima on 12th April, despite he was supported as even money favourite. I think the distance of the allowance race, 1,200m, was too short for this lazy colt by LORD KANALOA, and believe the distance of Kinosaki Tokubetsu, 1,800m, is more suitable trip for him. SUAVE CHARLES is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 1. OH MY DARLING, 6. HAGINO BELLEEQUIPE, 7. POLE TO WIN, 3. SILVER ACE & 5. SUAVE CHARLES

S1-4     Maiko Tokubetsu

Maiko Tokubetsu is the stakes race for two time winners over 1,400m turf course at Hanshin. It is not big field and I don’t see a destabilizing factor to predict.  

My first choice is HUSH GO GO, 4YO filly by ASAKUSA KINGS. Since she graduated the class of one time winners last November, she has shown solid performance in all four starts at the class for two time winners, finishing second twice, third once and fourth once. She was beaten nose by AFFRANCHIR, who is now competitive at the class for three time winners last time out. She clocked 1 minutes and 22.7 seconds over 1,400m turf course at Kyoto in that race, which is much faster than the standard time. It is obvious that 1,400m is her best trip, and the competition of this race looks inferior than her previous start. Although this is her first start since February, she has been trained well at Ritto Training Centre and I believe she is ready to run her race.

My second choice is SKIP, 4YO colt by ROSES IN MAY. He won allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo in March, and has been running well at the class for two time winners since then, finishing within first five at all three starts. SKIP was fifth in at Hanshin last time out, though, he was only one and a half length behind the winner. While the distance of his last three starts were 1,200m, the distance of this race is 1,400m and extra 200m should be beneficial for him.

The performance of PLUS, 5YO mare by VICTOIRE PISA, in the last three starts are disappointing, however, I think the trip of 1,800m was too long for her. While her pedigree might suggest she could be better at further trip, she won maiden when she was 2YO and allowance race for one time winners when she was 3YO over 1,400m at Chukyo. In addition, she finished third in allowance race for two time winners over 1,400m at Hanshin last September. PLUS is my third choice at this 1,400m race.

I believe EGREMNI, 3YO colt by KIZUNA, has good chance to finish in first four here, if he re-produces his form when he won allowance race for one time winner over 1,400m at Kyoto last November and finished third in a Listed race at Hanshin in February. EGREMNI is my fourth choice.

SUPER FEATHER finished fifth in allowance race for two time winners last time out and it was not bad performance as it was first start for him since January. The 5YO gelding by DEEP IMPACT is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 7. HUSH GO GO, 10. SKIP, 6. PLUS, 4. EGREMNI & 1. SUPER FEATHER

S1-5     Hananomichi Stakes

Hananomichi Stakes is the stakes race for three time winners over 1,800m on dirt course at Hanshin. It is handicap race and crabbed to predict the most on Sunday’s card.

My first choice is SHIHONO FORTE, 4YO colt by HENNY HUGHES. He won allowance race for one time winners at Kyoto in February, and allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin in April. The allowance race on 10th May at Kyoto was the first time for SHIHONO FORTE to compete against three time winners and he finished third, beaten less than a length by the winner. I am convinced he has ability to win this class. He has temperament issue, he tends to become too hot at parade ring and quiet circumstances at Hanshin, where the racing is conducted behind closed doors, should help him to settle down. And Hanshin is favourite track for SHIHONO FORTE, who has started there three times, won two of them and finished third once. He has every chance to win Hananomichi Stakes.

SMART FLEURETTE graduated the class for two time winners in November 2019, and has been running consistently at the class for three time winners since then. The most notable effort from the 4YO filly by GOLD ALLURE was seen in March at Funabashi, where she finished third in JPN G3 Marine Cup. She was fourth in allowance race for three time winners last time out, finishing neck behind SHIHONO FORTE and she has chance to turn the table on Sunday. SMART FLEURETTE is my second choice.

HAGINO ATLAS finished fourth in allowance race for three time winners at Kyoto on 30th May, and I think I should regard this performance highly, because he had not run since February and this was first start to compete against three time winners for the 4YO colt by KUROFUNE. His form suggests that he is the horse who need a race to regain 100% fitness and I am sure he will perform better on Sunday than the previous start. HAGINO ATLAS is my third choice. 

MUSCLE BEACH is the winner of allowance race for two time winners over this course and distance in September 2019. And the 4YO colt by MEISHO SAMSON finished second in allowance race for three time winners at Tokyo in February and finished third in allowance race for three time winners at Hanshin in March. If he re-produces those form on Sunday, I believe he should have good chance to finish in first four. MUSCLE BEACH is my fourth choice.

BOARDWALK finished third in allowance race for three time winners at Tokyo on 20th June and it is good effort as it was her first start since March and her body weight was 30kg heavier than her previous start. While this race might come too soon after that allowance race, this is usual way of selecting races for her trainer, Yoshito Yahagi. BOARDWALK is my fifth choice. 

SELECTIONS: 11. SHIHONO FORTE, 14. SMART FLEURETTE, 5. HAGINO ATLAS, 16. MUSCLE BEACH & 7. BOARDWALK

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 11. SHIHONO FORTE
Selections – 14. SMART FLEURETTE, 5. HAGINO ATLAS, 16. MUSCLE BEACH & 7. BOARDWALK
S1-6: Banker – 11. LUCKY LILAC
Selections – 16. CHRONO GENESIS, 5. SATURNALIA, 3. GLORY VASE & 18. BLAST ONEPIECE

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 11. SHIHONO FORTE, 14. SMART FLEURETTE & 5. HAGINO ATLAS
S1-6: Multiple – 11. LUCKY LILAC, 16. CHRONO GENESIS & 5. SATURNALIA
S1-7: Multiple – 5. PEGASUS, 3. GOLDEN LION & 9. BEST MY WAY

S1-6     Takarazuka Kinen

The G1 Takarazuka Kinen is the race to conclude the first half of season, taken place at Hanshin Racecourse near Osaka on the last Sunday of June. While the race condition is 3YO and up, there is no 3YO in the field and we are missing the challenge by Hong Kong-trained horse as well. It is still fresh memory for all involved in horse racing in Japan that WERTHER finished second in 2018 and we look forward to having Hong Kong representatives in 2021 edition of Takarazuka Kinen.

20 fillies and mares started in the last ten running of Takarazuka Kinen, two of them managed to win, three of them finished second, and four of them finished third. It is favourable statistics for the supporters of fillies and mares, and we should not hesitate to back female athletes, who have run well against colts and horses.

My first pick is LUCKY LILAC, who has won three G1s, including the G1 Osaka Hai at Hanshin in April, and finished well second to GLORY VASE in the G1 Hong Kong Vase in December. Hanshin is her favourite track, where she won three races from five starts, and she is still improving as like her grand sire, STAY GOLD, who won the G1 Hong Kong Vase when he was 7YO. And her sire ORFEVRE is the winner of Takarazuka Kinen in 2012. She was given a short break at Shigaraki Branch of Northern Farm after Osaka Hai, and returned at Mikio Matsunaga’s barn at Ritto Training Centre on 29th May. Since then, she has been trained really well for Takarazuka Kinen.

My second pick is CHRONO GENESIS, who was narrowly beaten by LUCKY LILAC in the G1 Osaka Hai, overcoming unlucky wide draw. In addition to winning the G1 Shuka Sho, final leg of Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies, CHRONO GENESIS won the G2 Kyoto Kinen over 2,200m on 16th February against colts and horses and it is no doubt that she could be competitive in this quality field. As like LUCKY LILAC, she was refreshed at Shigaraki Branch of Northern Farm after Osaka Hai, returned at Takashi Saito’s barn at Ritto on 5th June, and has been trained beautifully since then.

When SATURNALIA won the G1 Satsuki Sho and extended unbeaten record to four in the spring of 2019, he was regarded very highly and we expected him to become a superstar. However, he fell short of the expectation and has failed to add another G1 in his tally. His performance in the G2 Kinko Sho at Chukyo on 15th March is ultra-impressive and I think he might have recuperated his strength. SATURNALIA is my third choice.

GLORY VASE, who won the G1 Hong Kong Vase by three and a half lengths in December, travelled to Dubai in March and returned to Japan without running a race, as Dubai World Cup Day was called off at the last minutes due to the pandemic of COVID-19. It means Takarazuka Kinen is the first race for him since December, however, his workout on 11th June at Miho Training Centre, ridden by Damian Lane, was brilliant and I believe he is ready to run his race. GLORY VASE is my fourth choice

While BLAST ONEPIECE was disappointing seventh in the G1 Osaka Hai, he is winner of five Graded Stakes including the G1 Arima Kinen and I believe it is too risky to neglect him here. BLAST ONEPIECE is my fifth choice.    

SELECTIONS: 11. LUCKY LILAC, 16. CHRONO GENESIS, 5. SATURNALIA, 3. GLORY VASE & 18. BLAST ONEPIECE

S1-7     Ribbon Sho

Ribbon Sho is stakes race at the class for two time winner over 1,800m on dirt course at Hanshin. 

PEGASUS, 4YO colt by KIMONNO KASHIWA is my first choice. He finished second in an allowance race for two time winners over this course and distance on 11th April, and finished second again in an allowance race for two time winners at Kyoto on 2nd May.  Though he has temperament issue, he tends to idle at crucial stage of race, it is no doubt that he has ability to graduate this class and I expect Yutaka Take on saddle manage to strike full sparks out of the colt.

Many of runners in this field ran the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as Ribbon Sho on 7th June, and GOLDEN LION arrived first in the goal among them, finishing second there. The 4YO colt by PYRO covered final 600m for 36.8 seconds, the quickest of 13 runners, which is really impressive. I expect the pace of Ribbon Sho should be strong, because there are two speed horses in the field, namely MEISHO AZTECA and ROSA NOIR, and I believe it helps GOLDEN LION who has sharp late kick. GOLDEN LION is my second choice.

BEST MY WAY, 5YO horse by POINT OF ENTRY, who is the third finisher in the aforementioned allowance race on 7th June, is my third choice. While his sire is a good turf galloper, he tried the race on turf only once and 18 out of 19 starts so far are dirt races. He finished second in allowance race for two time winners over 1,800m dirt course at Chukyo in July 2019, and I believe he has ability to finish in first three here.

This is first start since May 2019 for MEISHO AZTECA and she may need this race to regain her fitness to be frankly. However, she has potential to finish in first five, even if she is 80% fit on Sunday. MEISHO AZTECA is my fourth choice.

CRESCENT MOON won allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as Ribbon Sho in September, and had three disappointing races at this class for two time winners since then. However, there were certain excuses. The allowance race in January was his first start since September and he was not ready to run. The colt by HENNY HUGHES did not like wet track when he was beaten sixth in allowance race at Hanshin in March. And the distance of allowance race, 1,400m, at Kyoto on 9th May was too short for him. CRESCENT MOON wears blinker for the first time and Damian Lane is booked on Sunday. Those factors may change him dramatically. CRESCENT MOON is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 5. PEGASUS, 3. GOLDEN LION, 9. BEST MY WAY, 7. MEISHO AZTECA & 16. CRESCENT MOON

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