 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Derby Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Woodcote Stakes
This historic Derby day, where the Oaks and Derby are run on the same card for the first time ever, gets underway with a 1,203m Conditions race, won last year by PINATUBO. Even though only five runners have been declared, you couldn’t confidently rule out any of them due to their lack of experience.
Mark Johnston has won this race three times in the last nine years and relies on MUTAZAWWED who broke his maiden tag at Lingfield over 1,201m last month. That was a fair performance and he clearly appreciated the step up to 1,203m, but it’s difficult to know what he achieved. In saying that, Johnston had three entries for this race so the fact he has opted to run only MUTAZAWWED has to be respected.
MODERN NEWS, from the same yard as last year’s winner PINATUBO, could give Charlie Appleby back-to-back victories. Following a 1,200m winning debut at Newmarket, he was then stepped up in trip for the 1,400m Listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot where he finished fifth. Appleby has decided to drop him back to 1,203m and that combined with what should be a sounder surface could be enough to get his head in front.
Owen Burrows will have something to say about that, though, as he looks to follow up a first Royal Ascot winner with a success on Derby day. TWAASOL wasn’t fancied in the betting when taking a 1,211m novice event at Windsor last month, but his odds didn’t stop him making an impressive winning debut. Martin Harley, familiar to Hong Kong punters after his spell in the territory last season, was on board that day and he retains the ride.
Karl Burke and Ben Curtis took the G3 Albany Stakes over 1,200m with DANDALLA at Royal Ascot and they combine in this with INHALER. He won a 1,003m novice at Pontefract on debut and was then narrowly beaten at Newcastle last week over 1,200m. You’d expect he would need to find some improvement to trouble the leading protagonists, though.
Andrew Balding’s CALCUTTA CUP, who is making his debut, completes the line-up with champion jockey Oisin Murphy in the saddle. We obviously don’t know anything about him yet, but he is a nicely bred son of French G1 winner TERRITORIES and you’d expect him to be winning races in the not too distant future. He receives weight from his four rivals in this, which is obviously a bonus, although it’s a tough race for his first day at school.
SELECTIONS: 2. MODERN NEWS, 4. TWAASOL, 3. MUTAZAWWED & 1. INHALER
S1-2 Surrey Stakes
Now open to 3YOs and over, this year’s renewal of the 1,403m Listed Surrey Stakes looks an intriguing contest on paper. SAFE VOYAGE boasts some solid form coming into this and will be fancied to go well once again. He enjoyed a consistent season in 2019, winning three times at Haydock over 1,400m and only finishing outside the places once. The 7YO was last seen when a neck behind last year’s winner, SPACE BLUES, in the Listed Spring Trophy Stakes at Haydock over 1,393m last month. He’s also proven on soft ground, so if lots of rain arrives it won’t be a concern.
Richard Hannon runs OH THIS IS US, an experienced 7YO with multiple wins at 1,400m. He likes it at Epsom, having placed in both starts here in the G3 Diomed Stakes over 1,700m in 2017 and 2019. This drop back in trip shouldn’t be a problem and the drier the ground the better his chance.
John Gosden is looking for his first Surrey Stakes win for 14 years as he saddles DAARIK. The exciting gelding won smartly on his seasonal reappearance at Newcastle over 1,413m before disappointing in the Buckingham Palace Stakes over 1,400m at Royal Ascot. Gosden could offer no explanation for the poor showing and if bouncing back to his previous best he could have a chance.
Silvestre De Sousa has piloted two of the last three winners of this race and will ride Andrew Balding’s SHINE SO BRIGHT. His last win came in the G2 City Of York stakes over 1,400m but he has since had three disappointing runs, including last time in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes over 1,200m, though that was a much hotter race. Given those recent efforts he is hard to fancy here, but would be a contender on some of his older form.
Mark Johnston relies on VALE OF KENT. Having outrun his odds when fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup over 1,600m, he then went on to run below par in the G3 Criterion Stakes at Newmarket over 1,400m. He has won at both 1,400m and 1,600m, but recent form suggests he prefers the extra 200m.
JACK’S POINT was impressive on reappearance when he made all at Newmarket over 1,400m. He then ran an excellent race in the Buckingham Palace Stakes over 1,400m at Royal Ascot where he finished second, well in front of DAARIK. His second run at the Royal meeting wasn’t as impressive when dropping down to 1,200m in the Wokingham Stakes. Stepping back up to 1,403m, he is still open to improvement.
SELECTIONS: 4. SAFE VOYAGE, 3. OH THIS IS US, 5. SHINE SO BRIGHT & 6. VALE OF KENT
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 4. SAFE VOYAGE
Selections – 3. OH THIS IS US, 5. SHINE SO BRIGHT & 6. VALE OF KENT
S1-3: Banker – 4. CARADOC
Selections – 2. TINANDALI, 14. MR SCARAMANGA, 13. IRONCLAD & 3. DESERT ICON
S1-3 4yo+ Handicap
Epsom handicaps at this meeting are always very competitive and this Class 2 contest over 2,015m is no exception. The market leader will almost certainly be DESERT ICON from the in-form William Haggas team, who won a 2,000m handicap at Newmarket by eight and a half lengths on Sunday. That was a very impressive performance and he’s going to be well in at the weights here under a penalty. However, he got a soft lead at Newmarket and his best form has come in small fields, so this is going to be a very different test just six days later.
This is a huge day for trainer Ed Walker, who saddles ENGLISH KING in the main event, but the nerves will be settled if his CARADOC can land this prize under champion jockey Oisin Murphy. The son of CAMELOT, who incidentally won the Derby back in 2012, landed three competitive handicaps last season, all over 2,000m distance. Although he is making his seasonal reappearance, he is a very progressive horse who his trainer thinks is up to Pattern class.
David O’Meara saddles TINANDALI who is making his second start for the yard having come from Irish handler Dermot Weld. The 4YO ran in a couple of G3 contests last season and after a gelding operation, he made a promising reappearance when a close second in a 2,000m handicap at Ayr a couple of weeks ago. O’Meara, who does well with his acquisitions, has booked Jim Crowley and all looks set for a big run.
YOU’RE HIRED, CERTAIN LAD and PLANTADREAM are respected, while JOHNNY DRAMA is surely better than he showed at Royal Ascot over 2,392m last time. Andrew Balding normally does well at this meeting and the King Power Racing horse’s chances will improve the more rain that falls. However, there are a couple down the bottom of the weights who are perhaps slightly more interesting.
MR SCARAMANGA, trained locally by Simon Dow, won over this course and distance a year ago and was a fine third in a decent handicap (also 2,000m) at the Derby meeting before that. Because he is from an unfashionable yard, his odds are likely to be bigger than they should be given his course form.
Hugo Palmer had a big winner last weekend and he will be hopeful IRONCLAD can go close in this. Always highly regarded, he possibly didn’t achieve what his trainer thought he would last season but that means he is on a nice handicap mark for this first run after being gelded.
SELECTIONS: 4. CARADOC, 2. TINANDALI, 14. MR SCARAMANGA, 13. IRONCLAD & 3. DESERT ICON
S1-4 Oaks Stakes
Given both Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden are the only trainers to have won the 2,405m G1 Oaks Stakes since 2014, it’s unsurprising the duo are responsible for this year’s two leading contenders. O’Brien, seeking an eighth win in the race, saddles PASSION, ENNISTYMON and LOVE this time around. Based on her emphatic four-length win in the G1 1000 Guineas at Newmarket over 1,600m, LOVE looks his leading candidate. That was her second G1 success after she won the Moyglare Stud Stakes at Curragh at the end of last season over 1,400m. This will be her first try at this 2,405m trip, but she’s a full sister to Group winners over the distance and based on the way she won at Newmarket, you’d have to think she’ll have no problems with it.
ENNISTYMON is lightly-raced having had just three career starts. She kicked off her 3YO campaign by winning a Leopardstown maiden over 2,000m, before running very well when second to FRANKLY DARLING in the G2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot over 2,392m. ENNISTYMON seemed to relish the extra 200m there and with so few miles on the clock, there is surely plenty more to come from the daughter of GALILEO.
The final O’Brien contender is PASSION who was last seen finishing third in the aforementioned Ribblesdale Stakes. She’s another who looked to benefit from the step up in distance and like ENNISTYMON, she has plenty of scope for improvement.
Both ENNISTYMON and PASSION finished behind FRANKLY DARLING last time and based on that, Gosden’s filly has leading claims here. The daughter of FRANKEL has always been well-regarded and gave us a glimpse of her ability when bolting up in a Newcastle maiden on the all-weather over 2,038m by five lengths earlier this season. That impressive performance saw her go off favourite for the Ribblesdale Stakes where she put in another strong showing over 2,392m trip. She’s clearly very talented and holds strong claims, although connections would ideally like her to settle a little better here than she did at Ascot.
Roger Varian has been in good form recently and he’s responsible for both GOLD WAND and QUEEN DAENERYS. This is a huge step up for GOLD WAND given she’s only run in two maidens so far. She was just touched off over 1,600m on heavy ground at Doncaster on her debut, before she won nicely at Newbury over 2,000m last time. For connections to pitch her in at this level means she must be well-regarded, but it’s still hard to see her troubling the leading contenders.
QUEEN DAENERYS looks to have been crying out for this step up in trip. Although she finished over three lengths behind RUN WILD in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes over 2,000m last time, she was staying on at the finish suggesting this extra 400m will be to her liking. She’ll need to improve plenty to be competitive here, but she looks an interesting outsider.
SELECTIONS: 5. LOVE, 3. FRANKLY DARLING, 2. ENNISTYMON, 7. QUEEN DAENERYS & 6. PASSION
S1-5 Princess Elizabeth Stakes
Sandwiched in between the two big G1 contests of the day, the G3 1,703m Princess Elizabeth Stakes is also a race for the Classic generation. Setting the standard is G1 1000 Guineas Stakes runner-up CLOAK OF SPIRITS. She ran a big race behind G1 Oaks Stakes favourite LOVE on her reappearance in the Guineas at Newmarket before contesting the G1 Coronation Stakes over 1,594m, where she was fifth. That was another high class contest and she’s dangerous now lowered in grade.
At the other end of the spectrum, FOORAAT, a full sister to G1 performer BENBATL, is stepping into Group company for the first time having gone unbeaten in her first two career starts. She showed a great attitude to battle back and win on her debut over 1,413m at Newcastle last autumn and then won impressively first time up this season over 1,600m at Chelmsford City. Given she was conceding weight to all bar one of her 10 rivals that day and still managed to win the race by seven lengths she has to enter considerations again.
SUMMER ROMANCE was given the rest of June off to recover from her exertions in the aforementioned G1 1000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket, where she finished midfield having never really got into the race. As a speedy dual winner over 1,200m, the step up to 1,703m comes with question marks over stamina, even if the majority of that distance at Epsom is run downhill, and others are preferred.
With 14 runs under her belt, ROSE OF KILDARE is the most experienced runner in the field, though she’s only had two tries over 1,600m and this will be the furthest distance attempted so far. Trainer Mark Johnston does very well with progressing his horses over longer trips, though, and her two runs over 1,600m this season have been decent. The first came when ninth in the G1 1000 Guineas Stakes, where she paid the price for going with the early pace, and then a third in the G2 German 1000 Guineas, also over 1,600m. Her breeding suggests she’ll get the 1,703m trip but will probably have to settle for minor honours.
LOVE AND THUNDER represents the powerful duo of John Gosden and Frankie Dettori, and the nature of her win over 1,600m on good ground at Newbury last time out. On her first start for more than six months, and making her debut in the UK having previously been trained by Andre Fabre in France, the daughter of SIYOUNI created a good impression and won comfortably. Though others are more proven, she looks to have bags of ability and could be the one to beat.
ONASSIS, the surprise winner of the 1,600m Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot, takes her chance again. Her trainer commented that he’s only just worked out she needed stepping up in trip and remains open to improvement over this distance.
SELECTIONS: 3. LOVE AND THUNDER, 2. FOORAAT, 1. CLOAK OF SPIRITS & 5. ROSE OF KILDARE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 3. LOVE AND THUNDER
Selections – 2. FOORAAT, 1. CLOAK OF SPIRITS & 5. ROSE OF KILDARE
S1-6: Banker – 15. VATICAN CITY
Selections – 13. RUSSIAN EMPEROR, 3. ENGLISH KING, 14. SERPENTINE & 10. MOHICAN HEIGHTS
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 3. LOVE AND THUNDER, 2. FOORAAT & 1. CLOAK OF SPIRITS
S1-6: Multiple – 15. VATICAN CITY, 13. RUSSIAN EMPEROR & 3. ENGLISH KING
S1-7: Multiple – 14. CORAZON ESPINADO, 1. STRAIGHT RIGHT & 2. HATEYA
S1-6 Derby Stakes
The build-up to the 241st 2,405m G1 Derby Stakes has been like no other with a dramatically revised racing schedule meaning the majority have taken unorthodox routes to Epsom and plenty have had rushed preparations. KAMEKO brings the best form into the race after his 1,600m G1 2,000 Guineas Stakes win at Newmarket last month. That was his second success at the highest level following last season's win in the 1,605m G1 Futurity Trophy at Newcastle and he is unquestionably a very talented colt. The big issue with him will be stamina as on breeding the significant 800m step up in trip doesn't look sure to suit.
Trainer Aidan O'Brien saddles six runners as he attempts to win the race for a record-breaking eighth time. Stable jockey Ryan Moore partners MOGUL who has been their leading hope for the race for some time. However, the son of GALILEO has yet to really show on the track what he does at home. Having followed a debut defeat with two wins, he could only finish fourth in the 1,605m G1 Futurity Trophy behind KAMEKO at Newcastle on his final start as a juvenile. He was sent off favourite on his reappearance, in the 2,392m G2 King Edward VII Stakes, but finished a well beaten fourth behind PYLEDRIVER and MOHICAN HEIGHTS. There is no doubt he will improve for that run, but on bare form he will need to.
The pick of the O'Brien team on preparation alone is RUSSIAN EMPEROR. He was narrowly denied in the 2,000m G3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes and then went one better in the 1,993m G3 Hampton Court Stakes last time. He was doing all his best work late on and shapes as though 2,405m will suit.
The most interesting of the other O'Brien runners looks to be the lightly-raced VATICAN CITY who flew home to finish second in the 1,600m G1 Irish 2000 Guineas on his reappearance. That was an incredible run on only his third racecourse start. His ability to stay this extra 800m is taken on trust, but one thing for sure is that his turn of foot will be a dangerous weapon if he does.
Of the other O'Brien runners, SERPENTINE looked smart when winning a 2,000m maiden at Curragh recently. He looks sure to be ridden positively again and could surprise a few.
The horse likely to be sent off favourite for the race is ENGLISH KING who is partnered by Frankie Dettori and will be trainer Ed Walker's first runner in the race. He was hugely impressive when breaking the track record in the 2,321m Listed Derby Trial Stakes and looks an exciting prospect. BERKSHIRE ROCCO finished second to him at Lingfield and was second to SANTIAGO in the 2,831m G2 Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot. That form looks even stronger now following SANTIAGO's success in the G1 Irish Derby.
MOHICAN HEIGHTS could pick up some prize money for trainer David Simcock. He had plenty to do turning for home in the G2 King Edward VII Stakes over 2,392m, but he stayed on impressively to take third and he might pass a few of these when their petrol is running out in the final 200m.
SELECTIONS: 15. VATICAN CITY, 13. RUSSIAN EMPEROR, 3. ENGLISH KING, 14. SERPENTINE & 10. MOHICAN HEIGHTS
S1-7 4yo+ 76-95 Handicap
The closing race on the card, the 1,403m 76-95 handicap, looks a tricky puzzle to solve. TINTORETTO comes into the contest on the back of two impressive wins on Kempton’s all-weather (both 1,400m) and the booking of Champion Jockey Oisin Murphy catches the eye. He’s progressive and won on the turf whilst he was trained in Ireland, but he’ll need to improve again of this higher mark.
Jockey Tom Marquand won on TINTORETTO last time and he’ll be aboard DIRTY RASCAL from the Tom Ward yard. The son of ACCLAMATION won a valuable handicap at Glorious Goodwood last season when trained by Ricahrd Hannon and he ran with plenty of credit on his first start for Ward when fifth in a Listed contest over 1,400m at Newbury. He finished last at Ascot most recently, but that was over 1,200m and this 1,403m trip looks more suitable.
CORAZON ESPINADO is another who hails from a smaller yard. Simon Dow’s 5YO won this race 12 months ago and has been very consistent since. He’s done almost all of his racing on the all-weather since, but last year’s win showed he’s equally as good on the turf and given he races off a similar mark this time around, he looks another interesting contender.
STRAIGHT RIGHT comes into this off the back of a decent showing in the Buckingham Palace Stakes over 1,400m at Royal Ascot last time. Despite the solid enough run he’s dropped down in the weights and is now below his last winning mark. He’s run with credit in better races than this in the past and looks fairly treated.
Jim Boyle’s HATEYA steps back into handicap company having run in a Listed contest at Newbury over 1,400m last time. She wasn’t disgraced when finishing sixth there and that followed a good run in a Newmarket handicap the time before. The daughter of FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND is on a long losing run, but has finished first and second in her last two runs at Epsom, including finishing second to CORAZON ESPINADO in this race last year.
Richard Hannon runs MAGICAL WISH with chance. Since winning in April 2019, MAGICAL WISH had been largely disappointing until he won a Lingfield all-weather handicap over 1,401m on his penultimate start. He finished down the field last time at Ascot over 1,200m and connections will be hoping he bounces back here.
James Doyle’s ride MARKAZI could go well. He won an Ayr handicap over 1,445m well at the back end of last season and didn’t run too badly at the same course over 200m further last time. The David O’Meara-trained 6YO looks fairly well treated off the back of that here.
SELECTIONS: 14. CORAZON ESPINADO, 1. STRAIGHT RIGHT, 2. HATEYA, 10. MARKAZI & 6. DIRTY RASCAL
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