 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
The late withdrawal of LOVE from the 2,400m G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, has, on paper at least, made ENABLE’s task of winning the race for a record third time much easier. Significant rainfall in Paris leading to very soft ground has forced LOVE’s connections to abandon a shot at the G1 contest, but the testing conditions will be no problem for John Gosden’s superstar mare ENABLE. Her victories in this race in 2017 and 2018 were part of an incredible stretch where the 6YO won 12 races in a row, and there’s no doubt she is one of the sport’s true greats. She came up short last year, but lost little in defeat and she’s shown plenty this season to suggest she’s still the force of old, particularly in the G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2,392m on her penultimate appearance. She does have to give weight away to some of her younger rivals, but she’s a proven champion and is the one all the jockeys will be watching.
Gosden holds a strong hand in the race with STRADIVARIUS an intriguing challenger. The 6YO has done much of his winning over further than this 2,400m trip, but the testing conditions here should mean his stamina comes into play. He was last seen when finishing second in the G2 Prix Foy over 2,400m over course and distance, but it was a slowly run race which didn’t play to his strengths. He should get a greater stamina test here and he has the class to go close.
SERPENTINE, SOVEREIGN, JAPAN and MOGUL represent the all-conquering Aidan O’Brien yard.
The former was a surprise winner of the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m and didn’t run too badly in the G1 Grand Prix de Paris over the same distance last time. He’s entitled to come forward from that, especially if similar front-running tactics to the Derby are applied, but you just feel he might be susceptible to a few classier rivals.
JAPAN hasn’t had the season that many would have hoped, but excuses can be made with quicker ground perhaps not suiting. Much of his best form has come with ease in the ground, as shown by his good fourth in this race 12 months ago and he could go well at a big price.
MOGUL was a good winner of the aforementioned G1 Grand Prix de Paris, but he’s unproven on the ground, which is something the runner-up that day, IN SWOOP, certainly isn’t. The 3YO loves soft conditions and was an impressive winner of the G1 Deutsches Derby over 2,400m earlier this season. He stayed on well behind MOGUL and there could easily be more to come from Francis-Henri Graffard’s lightly-raced contender.
The same can be said for SOTTSASS who is proven on bad ground. He hasn’t quite been at his best in both the G3 Prix Gontaut-Biron and G1 Irish Champion Stakes (both over 2,000m) this season, but he ran very well in this contest last year in similar conditions. The 4YO is twice a G1 winner and is another that could run well at a decent price.
SELECTIONS: 6. STRADIVARIUS, 8. ENABLE, 12. IN SWOOP, 7. SOTTSASS & 4. JAPAN
S2-2 Prix de l'Opera
There is a high-class field of fillies and mares contesting the G1 2,000m Prix de l'Opera.
FANCY BLUE gave Donnacha O’Brien, son of Aidan and brother of Joseph, a first G1 win in his maiden season as a trainer when winning the 2,100m G1 Prix de Diane in July. She proved that was no fluke by following up in the G1 1,979m Nassau Stakes at Goodwood, beating MAGIC WAND, runner-up of last year’s G1 2,000m Hong Kong Cup, and will be at the top of a lot of shortlists for a third G1 here. Following her win at Goodwood, O’Brien suggested she could be good enough to challenge in the Arc, and you have to feel she’s a top-class filly with every chance.
However, there’s a strong bunch of talented horses lining up here, not least TAWKEEL, who is unbeaten in five starts and a winner at this level. The daughter of TEOFILO became a G1 winner by landing the 2,000m Prix Saint-Alary in June and is a proven soft-ground performer. At the time that didn’t look like the strongest contest, but the fourth has gone on to win a G2 and the runner-up claimed the G1 Belmont Oaks having been transferred to race in America.
The strongest form in the race is arguably held by ALPINE STAR, who went off favourite for the aforementioned 2,100m G1 Prix de Diane and was beaten just a neck. She made the running that day and was not easily passed, sticking to the task well and coming back at FANCY BLUE as they crossed the line. The daughter of SEA THE MOON then stepped back to 1,600m for the G1 Jacques le Marois, where she ran another solid race but was no match for PALACE PIER, the world’s highest-rated miler. She handled the very soft conditions well that day and has previously won on good ground, so looks versatile in that department, and the step back up to 2,000m looks well within her grasp.
TARNAWA is bidding to give legendary Irish trainer Dermot Weld a first win the race. She entered the reckoning for this after winning the 2,400m G1 Prix Vermeille last time out, with RAABIHAH, who contests the Arc, back in second. That was over further and on better ground than she’ll encounter here, though Weld’s filly has won three times over 2,000m and on softer conditions. Winning looks a big ask but she has solid place claims.
Given the soft conditions, AMBITION could muscle in on some prize money. She’s won three times on ground ranging from soft to heavy and is also proven in the stamina department having won over 2,400m. Granted she’s not as classy as some of her more fancied rivals, but she was only denied her first G1 success by a neck in the 2,000m Prix Jean Romanet last time out. She was beaten AUDARYA that day and there shouldn’t be much between them.
SELECTIONS: 13. ALPINE STAR, 8. TAWKEEL, 11. FANCY BLUE, 2. TARNAWA & 5. AMBITION
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2: Banker – 13.ALPINE STAR
Selections – 8.TAWKEEL, 11.FANCY BLUE,2.TARNAWA & 5.AMBITION
S2-3: Banker – 3. MAKE A CHALLENGE Selections – 6.GLASS SLIPPERS, 9. KEEP BUSY, 5.AIR DE VALSE & 10. LIBERTY BEACH
S2-3 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp
The draw has proved crucial in the 1,000m G1 Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp, with eight of the last 11 winners emerging from a single-figure gate, although because of the heavy ground there is set to be just 11 runners this year. Sadly Europe’s best sprinter BATTAASH is a late absentee due to the worsening conditions which is obviously a big shame. If he had run, he would have been one to take on with the ground like it is, but one horse who won’t mind it one bit is last year’s winner GLASS SLIPPERS.
Kevin Ryan’s filly made the most of her inside stall, dominating the race from start to finish. She had to be content with silver behind BATTAASH in the G2 King George Stakes at Goodwood over 1,000m in July, but that race was run in record time and the winner is 4-4 on the Sussex downhill dash. GLASS SLIPPERS got back on track in the G1 Flying Five Stakes over 1,000m at Curragh last time, despite the ground being plenty quick enough. The pendulum has now swung back her way as she bids to emulate LOCHSONG, the last back-to-back winner in 1994.
I’d be very interested in MAKE A CHALLENGE even though he finished fifth at Curragh over 1,000m. Drawn on the wrong side and with the ground not as soft as he likes, this Irish raider was only beaten two lengths behind GLASS SLIPPERS. He is arguably better at 1,200m, but his stamina will come into play on this ground, and with the rain continuing to pour down, few will be finishing their race off better.
3YOs have toppled their elders in this race three times in the last four years, and KEEP BUSY, another proven in the conditions, might have a better chance than John Quinn’s other runner, LIBERTY BEACH. KEEP BUSY is as hard as nails and won three races last season, culminating in a Listed triumph at Chantilly over 1,100m. She has lived up to her name through the summer, but she looked better than ever when runner-up to GLASS SLIPPERS at Curragh over 1,000m, and she looks a likely longshot.
LIBERTY BEACH was an excellent third behind BATTAASH in the G1 King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, but this will be comfortably the softest ground she has ever encountered.
The French last won the race with WIZZ KID in 2012, and they might struggle again, though AIR DE VALSE, who dips her toes in deep waters for the first time, has enjoyed a terrific season, winning three races, including the G3 Prix du Petit Couvert over 1,000m here last time.
SELECTIONS: 3. MAKE A CHALLENGE, 6. GLASS SLIPPERS, 9. KEEP BUSY, 5. AIR DE VALSE & 10. LIBERTY BEACH
S2-4 Prix de la Foret
The Prix de la Foret is the only 1,400m all-aged G1 contest in Europe and William Haggas’ 6YO mare ONE MASTER will make history if she becomes the first to win it three times. This race has been the target all year long for the daughter of FASTNET ROCK who has won a G3 and finished second in a pair of G2s (over 1,400m and 1,405m) on her last three outings. The weather gods have shined on her this week, as she loves heavy ground, and it will take a good one to beat her.
Most punters will expect that to be Andre Fabre’s 3YO EARTHLIGHT who looks like being sent off favourite. The son of SHAMARDAL, a winner of seven of his eight career starts, has done most of his running over 1,200m. However, the step up to 1,400m in a G3 at this course last month wasn’t a problem as he came home in front of stablemate TROPBEAU who he meets again.
While he did narrowly win the G1 Prix Morny over 1,200m at Deauville last year on heavy ground, he has mainly raced on a decent surface so there has to be a slight question mark about bottomless ground. That is less of a concern for TROPBEAU who has won all three times she has raced on either soft or very soft. She won a 1,600m G3 at ParisLongchamp on her reappearance before finishing fourth in the G1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches over the same trip at Deauville in June. The G1 Prix Jean Prat was a non-event, but she bounced back last time over this course and distance to be beaten just three quarters of a length by EARTHLIGHT. She gets a decent pull at the weights and with the ground certain to suit there shouldn’t be much between the two.
SAFE VOYAGE finished a respectable fourth in this race 12 months ago when held up and suffering a slightly interrupted passage. Connections have ridden him up with the pace this season which has paid off with back-to-back G2 successes, firstly over 1,400m at York with ONE MASTER behind, and then over 1,600m at Leopardstown. Despite being a 7YO, he has never been in better form and will have no problem with the conditions.
Aidan O’Brien has never won this and he relies on both LOPE Y FERNANDEZ and LANCASTER HOUSE. The former disappointed in the G1 Sprint Cup Stakes over 1,200m at Haydock last time, but he was placed twice in G1s at Deauville this summer (over 1,400m and 1,300m) so isn’t completely out of it. LANCASTER HOUSE was disappointing behind SAFE VOYAGE over 1,600m at Leopardstown last time, while SPEAK IN COLOURS was a fair third in this race last year and couldn’t be ruled out.
SELECTIONS: 8. ONE MASTER, 2. SAFE VOYAGE, 10. TROPBEAU, 7. EARTHLIGHT & 5. LOPE Y FERNANDEZ
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-4: Banker – 8.ONE MASTER
Selections – 2.SAFE VOYAGE, 10.TROPBEAU,7.EARTHLIGHT & 5.LOPE Y FERNANDEZ
S2-5: Banker – 10.DARK AMERICAN
Selections – 4.HOUSE OF KINGS, 13.ZAVRINKA,14.TRUE ROMANCE & 1.DUHAIL
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 8.ONE MASTER, 2.SAFE VOYAGE & 10.TROPBEAU
S2-5: Multiple – 10.DARK AMERICAN, 4.HOUSE OF KINGS & 13.ZAVRINKA
S2-6: Multiple – 6.FUNNY VALENTINE, 7.CALISTE & 2.MILLFIELD
S2-5 Grand Handicap des Flyers
Sitting on a card containing six G1 races, the Grand Handicap Des Flyers over 1,400m might play a minor role but it’s no less competitive. The key to this contest is a similar race over this course and distance three weeks ago when TRUE ROMANCE was touched off by PRINCE HAMLET in a thrilling finish with DARK AMERICAN, RIMINI, ROCQUEMONT, ECOLO, HOUSE OF KINGS, SANDYSSIME and ZAVRINKA all in behind.
There’s little doubt TRUE ROMANCE had the run of the race when failing by a nose having sat just behind the pace. He put a couple of disappointing efforts behind him that day but he will do well to hold some of those who finished further back this time.
One of those is DARK AMERICAN. He had to wait for a gap and then burst through with a strong, late challenge only to come up narrowly short by a nose and two heads in fourth. He won this race 12 months ago when he went through the soft ground extremely well to grind out a good victory. A repeat success is very much on the cards.
RIMINI was a neck further back in fifth in that ParisLongchamp contest last month. He appeared to have few excuses and the softer ground might not play to his strengths. His hold-up style of running is dependent on there being a strong early pace and that is far from guaranteed on this testing surface.
ROCQUEMONT and ECOLO were also close up in sixth and seventh but a bigger threat might come from eighth-placed HOUSE OF KINGS. He didn’t have much room to play with in the closing stages and he ran much better than his final finishing position suggests. The form of his earlier defeat of subsequent G3 winner FONTHILL ABBEY over 1,400m at Compiegne in June is good and the testing ground should not trouble him.
SANDYSSIME finished dead-heat with HOUSE OF KINGS last time but he ran badly in this race 12 months ago which is a worry.
Better can be expected from ZAVRINKA, well beaten in that ParisLongchamp contest last time out, as it did not pan out for him.
DUHAIL has come up well short in three G3 contests since season but his two starts in lesser grades both resulted in wins. He won with a fair bit in hand over 1,400m at Clairefontaine in July and he had little trouble following up on Deauville’s all-weather track over 1,300m. The step up to 1,600m for the first time was inconclusive in a Deauville G3 when returned to turf a month ago as he raced on the wrong side in a messy contest. The return to 1,400m will probably help but the heavy ground could be a problem as his best form has come on a faster surface.
SELECTIONS: 10. DARK AMERICAN, 4. HOUSE OF KINGS, 13. ZAVRINKA, 14. TRUE ROMANCE & 1. DUHAIL
S2-6 Prix du Centenaire
This is the consolation race for horses who missed the cut for the Grand Handicap des Flyers and run over the same 1,400m distance.
MILLFIELD has form tied in with several of the main contenders for the earlier race as he was a close third behind PRINCE HAMLET and TRUE ROMANCE over this course and distance three weeks ago. It’s fair to say he was better placed than most in that contest but this race is nowhere near as competitive. His last win came over this track and trip early last season and he is nicely weighted on that form.
MRS WORTHINGTON faded into tenth behind PRINCE HAMLET in that 1,400m ParisLongchamp race. She was forced to race wide to get a prominent position and she had no answer to the fast finishers in the closing stages. Her earlier second over 1,400m at Le Lion D'angers was the third successive decent run having moved from Britain last winter and she has every chance of bouncing back to form.
INATTENDU beat just one home behind PRINCE HAMLET, MILLFIELD and MRS WORTHINGTON over 1,400m last month. He will appreciate this weaker race but, while he ran well when second over 1,300m at Deauville in August, his three wins have all come over 1,600m.
VISCOUNT BARFIELD finished last of the 17 runners in this race 12 months ago. He arrives in good form this time having landed a nice success over 1,350m at Cholet last month. This demands a little more but he should not have any trouble handling the soft conditions.
CALISTE hasn’t been seen since getting nailed close home by WONDER BOY over this 1,400m distance at ParisLongchamp in July when MILLFIELD was back in fourth. That was the latest in a string of good efforts from CALISTE. He had won over 1,500m on the all-weather at Marseille Pont De Vivaux in May and he had backed it up with a half-length second behind RIMINI over 1,350m at Lyon Parilly the following month. His consistency means he should give his backers a good run for their money.
FUNNY VALENTINE twice ran well at Deauville (over 1,200m and 1,300m) before finishing sixth over 1,200m at Fontainebleau last month. That effort was better than it might appear as she raced on what seemed the unfavoured stands’ side. Although she does most of her racing over sprint distances, she did see out this 1,400m trip well when runner-up over this course and distance last year.
DREAM ACADEMY made a winning French debut when successful over 1,200m at Saint Cloud in July. He had won over 1,019m at Wolverhampton three weeks earlier before moving to France and his fourth over 1,400m at Toulouse last month suggests stamina could be an issue on this much softer ground.
SELECTIONS: 6. FUNNY VALENTINE, 7. CALISTE, 2. MILLFIELD, 5. VISCOUNT BARFIELD & 3. MRS WORTHINGTON
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