 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for British Champions Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 British Champions Long Distance Cup
Champion stayer STRADIVARIUS will be hot favourite returned to a more suitable 3,190m distance following a shot at the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe over 2,400m last time. He didn’t have the pace to make an impact in the ParisLongchamp G1 – Europe’s top middle-distance prize – when only seventh behind SOTTSASS two weeks ago. He is peerless around this distance as he showed when winning his third G1 Gold Cup over 3,991m and a record fourth G1 Goodwood Cup over 3,200m this summer. KEW GARDENS nosed him out in a thrilling finishing to last season’s British Champions Long Distance Cup but there doesn’t appear to be anyone of his class in this year’s field. The soft ground might not be ideal but two of his Gold Cup victories came on soft and conditions were similar when he won this race two years ago.
Conditions certainly give MORANDO a chance. He loves it when its muddy as he showed when landing the G3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes over 2,392m at Ascot last season. His second in a Chester Listed contest over 2,457m last month was a return to form and he has always shaped like he would be worth trying over this 3,190m distance.
Irish trainer Dermot Weld has twice won this race and his SEARCH FOR A SONG should run well. She gave KEW GARDENS a sound beating when landing last season’s G1 Irish St. Leger over 2,800m in just her fifth race and she had little trouble retaining the trophy with a smooth defeat of FUJAIRA PRINCE in the Curragh Classic last month. Soft ground is an unknown for her as she has yet to race on it but she is related to plenty of winners on an easy surface.
DAWN PATROL, trained by Aidan O’Brien, was a good winner over 3,200m at the Curragh. The longer distance suited him well and he looks a smart stayer in the making.
Stablemate BROOME steps up in distance having finishing a close fourth in last year’s G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m at Epsom. He was well a well-beaten fourth behind top-class GHAIYYATH in the G1 Coronation Cup over 2,400m at Newmarket in June when STRADIVARIUS – also making his seasonal return – finishing third. As a son of AUSTRALIA, his pedigree gives him a chance of staying the 3,190m distance and he has form on soft ground.
TRUESHAN has progressed well over the last two seasons. His victory in a Salisbury conditions contest over 2,840m last month was his sixth win in his last nine races. He is well at home on soft ground but this is a big rise in class.
SPANISH MISSION is another in great form. Since finishing sixth behind STRADIVARIUS in the G1 Goodwood Cup over 3,200m in July, he has notched up a Listed win over 2,879m at Chester and a G2 Doncaster Cup over 3,579m success. Andrew Balding’s hope needs to take another step forward but that is far from impossible.
SELECTIONS: 7. STRADIVARIUS, 4. MORANDO, 12. DAWN PATROL, 11. SEARCH FOR A SONG & 8. TRUESHAN
S2-2 British Champions Sprint Stakes
The first G1 of the day, the 1,200m British Champions Sprint Stakes, is one race trainer Sir Michael Stoute has failed to win in his glittering career, but he’ll be very hopeful of doing so this year.
The legendary handler saddles DREAM OF DREAMS who based on his two most recent performances looks the one to beat. The son of DREAM AHEAD began his 2020 campaign with a very close second in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes over 1,200m at Royal Ascot and followed that up with an impressive seven-length victory in the G2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury over 1,400m. The 6YO has since won Haydock’s G1 Sprint Cup Stakes over 1,200m and although he was disappointing in this race 12 months ago, he looks to have found a new lease of life this season.
Like DREAM OF DREAMS, ONE MASTER comes into this contest on the back of a G1 success. William Haggas’ mare was last seen when winning the 1,400m Prix de la Foret at ParisLongchamp – a record third victory in the race. She’s enjoyed another good campaign with a G3 win at Goodwood over 1,400m her other success. She loves soft ground and was second in this race last year, but her best performances have come over 200m further.
CAPE BYRON hasn’t been seen since finishing down the field in this contest last year. That was a rare below par performance at Ascot given he’d won his last two at the Berkshire track. The long absence shouldn’t be seen as a negative as he has a good record fresh and Roger Varian’s runner is an interesting contender at a double-figure price.
Aidan O’Brien’s last win in this race came in 1998 and he relies on LOPE Y FERNANDEZ. The 3YO hasn’t won since August 2019 but he has plenty of solid form, including a runner-up finish in the G1 Prix Jean Prat over 1,400m earlier this season.
Kieren Fallon rode CRYSTAL CASTLE to victory in 2002 and his son, Cieren, will be hoping to follow suit aboard OXTED. The 4YO has enjoyed a fantastic season with two victories, firstly in the G3 Abernant Stakes and then in the G1 July Cup (both 1,200m). The son of MAYSON is clearly on the upgrade and deserves his place in the line-up, although this will almost certainly be the softest ground he’s ever encountered.
ART POWER bounced back from a no-show in the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m when fourth behind DREAM OF DREAMS in the aforementioned G1 Sprint Cup Stakes. That was a step in the right direction, but he still has plenty to prove here.
The placings can be completed by BRANDO who looks set to get his preferred underfoot conditions. The old stager hasn’t tasted success for over a year now but has run well in a number of races since, including in this contest 12 months ago. He was a respectable third in the G3 Bengough Stakes over 1,200m at York last weekend and based on recent showings in this contest, he shouldn’t be dismissed despite his likely big odds.
SELECTIONS: 4. DREAM OF DREAMS, 2. CAPE BYRON, 14. ONE MASTER, 7. OXTED & 1. BRANDO
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2: Banker – 4. DREAM OF DREAMS
Selections – 2. CAPE BYRON, 14. ONE MASTER, 7. OXTED & 1. BRANDO
S2-3: Banker – 4. MEHDAAYIH
Selections – 12. WONDERFUL TONIGHT, 1. ANTONIA DE VEGA, 7. FRANKLY DARLING & 2. DAME MALLIOT
S2-3 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
The absence of both ENABLE and MAGICAL arguably makes this a G1 in name only, and it is far and away the most open of the five Pattern races.
Should the ground remain very soft, this 2,392m contest will be a real test of stamina, which would suit the relentless gallopers, WONDERFUL TONIGHT, DAME MALLIOT and ANTONIA DE VEGA. But with a fast pace virtually assured, we should maybe look for a closer, and MEHDAAYIH, the mount of Frankie Dettori, fits the bill. Testing conditions might blunt MEHDAAYIH’s potent finishing kick, but the more the ground improves the better her chance, and for a filly with her class the odds look too big.
John Gosden, who also runs G1 Oaks Stakes third FRANKLY DARLING, always felt that MEHDAAYIH had the potential to win a G1 last year, when Lady Luck was rarely on her side. She started favourite for the G1 Oaks Stakes over 2,405m at Epsom, but she would have found less trouble in a rugby scrum and was virtually knocked over in the scrimmaging. MEHDAAYIH gained compensation in a G2 at Saint-Cloud over 2,400m and back in the top grade was then mugged close home by Japanese superstar DEIRDRE in the G1 Nassau Stakes over 1,979m at Goodwood. Many of these will be feeling the effects of a busy season, but, in contrast, MEHDAAYIH comes here fresh, having run just the once, against the colts, at Royal Ascot over 1,993m. She has been geared up for the autumn races and you ignore her at your peril.
That confirmed mudlark WONDERFUL TONIGHT, though a length behind DAME MALLIOT in the G1 Prix Vermeille over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp, then won the Prix de Royallieu over 2,800m in heavy ground over the same course. WONDERFUL TONIGHT is very much ground dependent and, dropping back in trip, she won’t want the ground to dry out.
DAME MALLIOT, who defied a 10-month absence to win the G2 Princess of Wales’s Stakes over 2,400m at Newmarket’s July meeting, is another who will need plenty of pace. If nobody else takes up the running she might well adopt catch-me-if-you-can tactics, as she did when finishing third in the G1 Prix Vermeille over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp last month.
WONDERFUL TONIGHT, LABURNUM and EVEN SO all finished behind DAME MALLIOT in France, though EVEN SO had previously won the G1 Irish Oaks over 2,400m and might have been inconvenienced more than most by the slow early gallop in the G1 Prix Vermeille.
There is no better system for punters than following a stable in form, and Ralph Beckett, who trains ANTONIA DE VEGA, has sent out plenty of winners in October already, which has to be encouraging. ANTONIA DE VEGA is tough and consistent and was only beaten four lengths in this race last year, but she was always going to be a better 4YO and produced a career-best performance to land the G3 Princess Royal Stakes over 2,400m at Newmarket last month.
SELECTIONS: 4. MEHDAAYIH, 12. WONDERFUL TONIGHT, 1. ANTONIA DE VEGA, 7. FRANKLY DARLING & 2. DAME MALLIOT
S2-4 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
Unbeaten PALACE PIER will attempt to stretch his winning streak to six in the 1,600m Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Having twice won over 1,400m at Sandown last year, he kicked off this season in a 1,605m handicap on Newcastle’s all-weather surface. Champion trainer John Gosden threw him straight into the deep end at Royal Ascot in the 1,594m G1 St. James’s Palace Stakes and he proved well up to the task. His smooth defeat of top-class PINATUBO was followed by a second G1 success when sent over to Deauville for the G1 Jacques le Marois over 1,600m in August. That race was run on heavy ground so he will have no problem with these conditions and he will line up a fresh horse having enjoyed a two-month break since his French victory. With 3YO having been successful in 10 of the last 14 runnings, PALACE PIER has to be the one to beat.
This prize has twice gone to France in the last six years and Francis-Henri Graffard’s THE REVENANT looks the biggest danger to the hot favourite this year. He was runner-up behind KING OF CHANGE in last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and he made a winning return when landing a ParisLongchamp G2 over 1,600m a couple of weeks ago. Both those races were run on heavy ground so the testing conditions will be a help.
CIRCUS MAXIMUS will defend an unbeaten Ascot record. Aidan O’Brien’s star won the G1 St. James’s Palace Stakes over 1,594m last season and he returned to Royal Ascot this year to land a narrow victory in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes over 1,600m. That was his third G1 success but he was more than five lengths behind PALACE PIER when only third in the G1 Jacques le Marois.
The race rather fell apart when CENTURY DREAM beat SIR BUSKER to notch his second victory of the season in the G2 Celebration Mile over 1,600m at Goodwood in August. He didn’t reproduce that form when finishing in midfield in a Leopardstown G2 over 1,600m last time out and his third place in this race two years ago is the only time he has finished in the first three in a G1 in six attempts.
NAZEEF took her record in 1,600m races to six wins from six runs in the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket two weeks ago. She finishes her races strongly and handles soft ground well.
Last year’s G1 Queen Anne Stakes hero LORD GLITTERS loves Ascot’s straight 1,600m course and he has plenty of soft-ground form.
ROSEMAN returns from a three-month break after disappointing over 1,800m on good ground in France. His impressive defeat of CENTURY DREAM on heavy over 1,600m at Newmarket last November looks good form and he ran a cracker despite missing the break when fourth behind CIRCUS MAXIMUS in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot in June.
SELECTIONS: 12. PALACE PIER, 9. THE REVENANT, 2. CIRCUS MAXIMUS, 11. NAZEEF & 6. LORD GLITTERS
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-4: Banker – 12. PALACE PIER
Selections – 9. THE REVENANT, 2. CIRCUS MAXIMUS, 11. NAZEEF & 6. LORD GLITTERS
S2-5: Banker – 8. MAGICAL
Selections – 9. MISHRIFF, 5. LORD NORTH, 1. ADDEYBB & 7. SKALLETI
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 12. PALACE PIER, 9. THE REVENANT & 2. CIRCUS MAXIMUS
S2-5: Multiple – 8. MAGICAL, 9. MISHRIFF & 5. LORD NORTH
S2-6: Multiple – 16. RAAEQ, 5. KEATS & 9. NJORD
S2-5 Champion Stakes
With over 140 years of history and winners on the list from FRANKEL to BRIGADIER GERARD, the G1 1,993m Champion Stakes, is the jewel in the crown of British Champions Day. Last year, MAGICAL became the first filly to claim the prize in 13 years and trainer Aidan O’Brien will have high hopes of her delivering back-to-back wins. The daughter of GALILEO has been rock-solid this term, winning three of the four races she’s contested and all at G1 level over 2,000m – 2,051m. Her only defeat was a monstrous front-running performance by GHAIYYATH, while she turned the tables with Godolphin’s star performer in the G1 2,000m Irish Champion Stakes last time out. She arrives here in top form, is a previous winner of the race and her chances are plain for all to see.
O’Brien’s hand is strengthened further by the presence of JAPAN and SERPENTINE, though both have been inconsistent this season. JAPAN is a dual G1 winner but he’s not been at his best lately and remains a risky proposition, while SERPENTINE is yet to back up his Derby win.
As for MAGICAL’s biggest dangers, MISHRIFF, ridden by Frankie Dettori, is a 3YO with a very bright future. He was successful on his only start at the highest level, winning the G1 Prix du Jockey Club over 2,100m, and then made light work of his field in the G2 2,000m Prix Guillaume d'Ornano. Though he hit the front early that day with others travelling smoothly in-behind, the challengers couldn’t close the gap and he crossed the line four lengths clear. Ascot’s testing home straight should suit, and he won’t go down without a fight.
Given his performance over track and trip in the G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot back in June, it’s hard to discount LORD NORTH. He swooped past the field in great style that day and was marked down as a highly progressive individual. However, he’s only run once since, finishing third in the G1 International Stakes over 2,051m, though it is interesting that trainer John Gosden has kept him fresh for this.
PYLEDRIVER has been a revelation this season. Purchased for just a few thousand pounds and stabled with lesser-known trainer William Muir, the son of HARBOUR WATCH is now a dual G2 winner and Classic-placed colt. While he’s a very tough and consistent individual, it feels as though connections might be rolling the dice a little given the step back to 1,993m and the high-class opposition, so others are preferred.
ADDEYBB and SKALLETI may be the ones left battling it out for minor honours. The former plundered two G1 contests over 2,000m in Australia during the spring, before returning to the UK to finish second in the aforementioned G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes over 1,993m. After three months off the track he returned with a win in the Listed Doonside Cup Stakes over 2,000m at Ayr and that will have prepared him nicely for this, but he still needs a career best to challenge.
French raider SKALLETI will, like ADDEYBB, handle the likely soft conditions and must be a place consideration based on his win last time out in the G2 Prix Dollar over 1,950m.
SELECTIONS: 8. MAGICAL, 9. MISHRIFF, 5. LORD NORTH, 1. ADDEYBB & 7. SKALLETI
S2-6 Balmoral Handicap
The 1,600m Balmoral Handicap that concludes British Champions Day is the richest handicap in Europe and is always hugely competitive with 20 runners hurtling down Ascot’s home straight. Introduced in 2014, only one favourite has been successful – subsequent G1 winner LORD GLITTERS – but last year’s market leader LORD NORTH was a fine second and he went on to land the G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes over 1,993m at Royal Ascot in June. You really need a Group horse to win this race and Brian Meehan’s RAAEQ could well be the answer.
No 3YO has won the Balmoral before, but he looked a horse of huge potential when running away with a 1,400m handicap on soft ground at this track earlier this month. Although it perhaps wasn’t the strongest of races, he couldn’t have done it any easier and he is well in at the weights thanks to only having to carry a penalty. The son of KINGMAN is destined for bigger things next season and he is the most obvious winner having proven himself at both the course and on soft ground.
Aidan O’Brien doesn’t tend to send many over to the UK for handicaps but his KEATS could be well ahead of his handicap mark. The 3YO son of GALILEO has plenty of experience and was an impressive winner of a 1,600m Listed race at Cork last month. Prior to that he was second to LADY WANNABE in another Listed event at Listowel over 1,800m and the winner has gone on to take a G3 over the same distance at Newmarket.
A couple of spots behind KEATS at Listowel was Mrs John Harrington’s NJORD who has been tremendously consistent this season, winning or being placed in a number of competitive handicaps between 1,400m to 2,000m. It is no surprise with the big prize money on offer that these two major Irish yards are sending over their troops and NJORD should run very well.
David O’Meara is the only trainer to have won this race twice and he relies on ORBAAN. Formerly trained by Andre Fabre in France, he won a decent 1,575m handicap at York on his second start for his new handler in July. Last time over this course and distance he actually ran really well to finish fourth considering there was no pace, and that shouldn’t be a problem in this.
Charlie Fellowes’ KING OTTOKAR has always been well regarded, running in the G1 1,600m Futurity Trophy on only his second career start. Things haven’t gone quite right since, but now in handicap company he should prove better than his mark of 100 in time.
RAISING SAND and KYNREN both love it at Ascot, although they might just be a little too high in the weights now, while TEMPUS is likely to be too short in the betting for what he has achieved.
Clive Cox’s RIVER NYMPH is on a hat-trick but this will be his first attempt at 1,600m and he has shot up the handicap.
SELECTIONS: 16. RAAEQ, 5. KEATS, 9. NJORD, 6. ORBAAN & 13. KING OTTOKAR
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