Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1    3yo and up 1 win

The runners who have good tactical speed and sharp acceleration take advantage at the races over 1,600m on turf at Kyoto. And the win-or-bust situation is the downslope at the far turn, where the pace of race tends to become faster. The track condition is fast at the moment, and I expect the finish time would be fast.

My first choice is AIR FANDITHA, 3YO colt by HAT TRICK, winner of the G1 Hong Kong Mile in 2005. While he is still not matured yet, having the problem of weak hind quarter, he has plenty of room to improve and I believe he should be able to compete in higher class. AIR FANDITHA, who finished second twice in allowance races for one time winners at Hanshin on 21st June and 18th July respectively, and on 5th January early this year, has won a maiden over 1,600m on turf at Kyoto. I believe this course at Kyoto is the most suitable for him.  

My second choice is AUSANGATE, very well-bred colt by DEEP IMPACT. He is a lightly-raced colt, having run only three times, won one of them and finished second twice. And his final workout at Ritto is very impressive and I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday.

My third choice is KAKERU. He had always broken slowly and this pernicious habit affected his career. However, his regular rider Hideaki Miyuki worked tenaciously to correct it and his efforts finally bear fruit in the maiden at Hanshin on 5th July, when KAKERU broke fast, tracked leaders, and drew clear by half a length. Though the competition here is stronger than the maiden, I feel he has a good chance to finish within first three as long as he re-produces the form.

ATTRIBUTE has inherited difficult temperament from her broodmare sire, WAR EMBLEM and tends to become too hot in parade ring. Her performance at Kyoto is better than other tracks, as Kyoto is close to her base, Ritto, and I understand shorter drive from Ritto benefits her. And I feel 1,600m is the best trip for ATTRIBUTE, and she is my fourth choice.

And my fifth choice is PETIT CHOUCHOU by EPIPHANEIA, sire of the latest winner of Triple Tiara, DARING TACT. I think the fastest horse in the field is PETIT CHOUCHOU and she will try to dictate the race at front. While the pace was too strong and faded at the crucial stage of the race in her previous start, I think she is able to set moderate pace here.   

SELECTIONS: 5. AIR FANDITHA, 11. AUSANGATE, 8. KAKERU, 9. ATTRIBUTE & 14. PETIT CHOUCHOU


S1-2    3yo and up 2 wins

It is quite obvious that front runners and horses who track leaders take advantage in the races over 1,900m on dirt at Kyoto. And wide draw is not favourable.   

My first choice is EPICURE, 3YO colt by KING KAMEHAMEHA. After winning easily in the allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 27th June, he was moved up in class for two time winners for the first time at Kokura on 30th August and finished fifteenth in 16 runners’ field. It was a poor performance, however, he could not handle the tight track at Kokura at all and I am sure we can forget about it. I believe he is competitive at this class if he re-produces his form when he graduated the class for one time winners. 

My second choice is KAFUJI KING. He was beaten eighth in 11 runners’ allowance race for two time winners at Niigata on 11th October, however, it was his first start since January and he needed the run. And he dislikes the long drive from Ritto to Niigata and was not very happy when he was there. Kyoto is his favourite track, where he finished second for 13 times and I am pretty sure that he performs much better on Sunday than his previous start.

GLENMACNASS is my third choice. He is not typical DEEP IMPACT, and I reckon he is more influenced by his broodmare sire, TAPIT. Although he was well beaten in previous two starts, finishing fourteenth in an allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 14th June and eighth in allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 11th October, the track of both races were wet and muddy, which GLENMACNASS did not like. Dry condition is expected on Sunday at Kyoto and I am sure he will perform much better on dry surface. 

My fourth choice is MORNING SUN. This is a colt with big action and he does not like the tracks which have tight bend, such as Kokura and Hanshin. He likes Kyoto, where he collected two wins and finished second once. And the competition of this allowance race looks weaker than his previous two starts. And I am very impressed with his morning trackwork this week.

My fifth choice is VIOLET IMERU. She won an allowance for one time winners at Sapporo on 26th July, covering final 600m in 37.3 seconds, which is outstanding in eight runners. And I believe Kyoto is more suitable track than Sapporo for VIOLET IMERU. While this is her first start since July, she is trained well at Ritto and I believe she is ready to run her race.


SELECTIONS: 9. EPICURE, 3. KAFUJI KING, 1. GLENMACNASS, 5. MORNING SUN & 7. VIOLET IMERU

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:    Banker – 9. EPICURE
Selections – 3. KAFUJI KING, 1. GLENMACNASS, 5. MORNING SUN & 7. VIOLET IMERU
S1-3:    Banker – 1. BLACK ARMET
Selections – 9. RED SOLDADO, 4. ZENNO ANGE, 6. MISUZU GRAND O & 8. YUINO CHUCKY

S1-3    Nadeshiko Sho

Nadeshiko Sho is a stakes race for 2YO one time winners. Generally speaking, closers take advantage over 1,400m on dirt at Kyoto Racecourse, and I believe we should select runners who have sharp and strong late kick.

My first choice is BLACK ARMET, 2YO colt by BLACK TIDE. After trying to make all and faded third in the end in a maiden over 1,200m on turf at Hanshin on 13th June, which was his first run, the connection made some important decisions for the second start. First of all, the surface of the race was switched from turf to dirt, and BLACK ARMET was entered maiden at 1,200m on dirt at Chukyo on 20th September. And Koichi Tsunoda, who trains BLACK ARMET, appointed Yutaka Take as the rider and requested Yutaka to save the horse until the top of homestretch. Those new plans worked very well. Yutaka settled the horse at the 12th position in 13 runners’ field, and overtook his opponents in single spurt on homestretch, covering final 600m for 36.3 seconds, the fastest of 13 runners, to draw clear by two lengths. His performance in that race was very impressive and I believe he will re-produce this form on Sunday.

The horse to beat for BLACK ARMET is RED SOLDADO, 2YO colt by MAJESTIC WARRIOR. He finished second in an allowance race for 2YO one time winner at Chukyo on 26th September, covering the final 600m for 37.4 seconds, the third fastest of nine runners. And RED SOLDADO covered final 600m for 38.2 seconds in newcomer at Hanshin on 12th July and for 37.8 seconds in maiden at Sapporo on 5th September, both of which are the fastest of all runners. I believe Nadeshiko Sho is the suitable race for RED SOLDADO and he is my second choice.

Another interesting runner in Nadeshiko Sho is ZENNO ANGE, 2YO filly by HENNY HUGHES. The filly won maiden on 19th September over 1,400m on dirt at Chukyo by four lengths. It was a race for fillies only, and the competition here is stronger than the previous start, though, she is big and powerful. I believe she is able to compete with colts, receiving 2lbs allowance. ZENNO ANGE is my third choice.

MISUZU GRAND O, 2YO colt by SOUTH VIGOROUS, who finished third in an allowance race for 2YO one time winner and for whom Christophe Lemaire is booked on Sunday, is my fourth choice.

YUINO CHUCKY, 2YO colt by DEEP SKY, who will try the race on dirt for the first time on Sunday, is my fifth choice. DEEP SKY has sired MOLTO BENE, winner of the G3 Antares Stakes on dirt, and I feel YUINO CHUCKY likes to run on dirt.


SELECTIONS: 1. BLACK ARMET, 9. RED SOLDADO, 4. ZENNO ANGE, 6. MISUZU GRAND O & 8. YUINO CHUCKY


S1-4    Narutaki Tokubetsu

Narutaki Tokubetsu is a stakes race for two time winners over 2,200m on turf at Kyoto Racecourse.

It is said there is a few track bias at 2,200m turf course at Kyoto, and the outside draw is not a serious disadvantage, as the first turn is 400m away from the starting gate. And it is obvious that the pace of the race could be moderate or slow, so I believe I should select the runners who can track leaders nicely at good position. 

My first choice is FLY LIKE BIRD, 3YO colt by SCREEN HERO, who finished second in an allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo on 20th September. He tracked the leaders form fourth position and ran well on homestretch, covering final 600m for 34.5 seconds, which is the second fastest in nine runners. In fact, he was beaten three quarters of length by ARISTOTELES, another 3YO colt, however, it was his first start since the G2 Aoba Sho on 2nd May, and his body weight on the day was approximately 31lbs heavier than the previous start. I am sure FLY LIKE BIRD is much fitter now and the standard of the current 3YO generation in Japan is high in general. I believe he has a good chance to graduate this class on Sunday.

LE LIEN, 3YO colt by KIZUNA, has been consistent in this class, since he graduated the class for one time winners in April. LE LIEN finished third in an allowance race for two time winners at Niigata on 9th August, when he was only half a length and neck behind the winner. And his previous start was the allowance race for two time winner at Nakayama on 4th October, when he was only one and a half lengths behind the winner. I am sure he has enough ability to win this class and LE LIEN is my second choice.

HEAT ON BEAT, 3YO colt by KING KAMEHAMEHA, is as consistent as LE LIEN at this class. He finished second in an allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 5th July and finished third in another allowance race in the same class, where he was only half a length behind FLY LIKE BIRD. I guess he will probably take position behind FLY LIKE BIRD and LE LIEN during the race and make persistent effort on homestretch. HEAT ON BEAT is my third choice.

REINHEIT, 3YO colt by HEART’S CRY and ENDYMION, 3YO colt by VICTOIRE PISA, both competed in higher class last time out respectively. REINHEIT was fourth in the G2 St. Lite Kinen, beaten three and a quarter lengths by BABBITT, and ENDYMION was sixth in the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai, beaten more than five lengths by CONTRAIL. At the moment, they are not good enough at Graded Stakes, however, I feel they are competitive at this class. REINHEIT is my fourth choice and ENDYMION is my fifth choice. 


SELECTIONS: 1. FLY LIKE BIRD, 13. LE LIEN, 7. HEAT ON BEAT, 12. REINHEIT & 5. ENDYMION


S1-5    Katsuragawa Stakes

Katsuragawa Stakes is a stakes race for three time winners over 1,200m on turf at Kyoto. It is the race on inner track at Kyoto, and outside draw could be put at a disadvantage. And front runners and horses who track leaders tend to run well, rather than closers.

My first choice is FIRST FOLIO, 3YO filly by KING KAMEHAMEHA. The tenth foal out of CESARIO, winner of the G1 Japanese Oaks (Yushun Himba) and the G1 American Oaks, and sister to three G1 winners, EPIPHANEIA, LEONTES and  SATURNALIA, has been regarded very highly by the connection since day one, however, she matures slower than her brothers and has finally grown physically and mentally now. She won an allowance race for one time winners at Sapporo on 25th July and another allowance race for two time winners at Sapporo on 5th September. She is now improving like sky rocket and I believe she is capable to run well in this class.

The horse to beat for FIRST FOLIO is FIRST FORCE, who carries 121lbs, the top weight in this handicap race. The 4YO colt by LORD KANALOA won four consecutive races from May to August, including allowance race for two time winners. It was the first time for him to compete in this class at Chukyo on 26th September, when he finished sixth in the allowance race for three time winners beaten more than four lengths by the winner, carrying 126lbs. That performance was not bad, and I assess he has good chance to finish in first two here.

My third choice is SHONAN ARIANA, 4YO filly by FRANKEL. She is a small horse, but should have a big heart, and has been consistent at this class finishing within first four in her last three races.

JURANVILLE, who used to be a Graded Stakes performer, is still running bravely and finished third in the allowance race for three time winners at Kokura on 22nd August. Though she was well beaten in the allowance race for the same class at Kyoto on 10th October last time out, she did not like the wet track. I think she has a good chance to finish in first four here, as dry track is expected at Kyoto on Sunday. JURANVILLE is my fourth choice.

And MUSCOLOSO, who won an allowance for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race in February, is my fifth choice.


SELECTIONS: 14. FIRST FOLIO, 16. FIRST FORCE, 13. SHONAN ARIANA, 7. JURANVILLE & 1. MUSCOLOSO

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:    Banker – 14. FIRST FOLIO
Selections – 8. FIRST FORCE, 13. SHONAN ARIANA, 7. JURANVILLE & 1. MUSCOLOSO
S1-6:    Banker – 3. CONTRAIL
Selections – 11. BABBITT, 6. WELTREISENDE, 13. ROBERTSON QUAY & 10. SATONO FLAG

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 14. FIRST FOLIO, 16. FIRST FORCE & 13. SHONAN ARIANA
S1-6: Multiple – 3. CONTRAIL, 11. BABBITT & 6. WELTREISENDE
S1-7: Multiple – 9. BLUMENKRONE, 1. IT’S COOL & 14. SPADA

S1-6    Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger)

Please forgive me that the opening sentence of this column about the G1 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) is very similar to the column a week ago when I wrote about the G1 Shuka Sho, because the picture of the final leg of Triple Crown on the coming Sunday looks like the carbon copy of that in the final leg of Triple Tiara on last Sunday. Can CONTRAIL win the G1 Kikuka Sho to achieve unbeaten sweep of Triple Crown for 3YOs?  It is the prime concern for all looking for the feature race at Kyoto on 25th October.

It is obvious that CONTRAIL, winner of six races from six starts including the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) and the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), the first and second leg of Triple Crown, is an outstanding 3YO. And the colt bred by Koji Maeda’s North Hills and owned by the brother of breeder, proves himself by winning the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai on 27th September at Chukyo, which was his first start since the Tokyo Yushun on 31st May.

The final question which he needs to answer is if he stays 3,000m. His sire, DEEP IMPACT, is the winner of the Kikuka Sho in 2005 and the last two winners of Kikuka Sho are also by DEEP IMPACT. CONTRAIL should have inherited stamina from his sire. On the other hand, his dam, RHODOCHROSITE placed four races from 1,200m to 1,400m. And his second dam, FOLKLORE has won the G1 Belmont Matron Stakes over 1,400m by 14 lengths, in prior to winning the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies over 1,700m by one and a quarter lengths. Although I have the feeling that the best trip for him is between 2,000m to 2,400m, my first choice for Kikuka Sho is still CONTRAIL, because he is better than his opponents even though the distance of the race is not ideal. While I understand it is too early to say that he is as good as his sire, I am sure he has similar class as DEEP IMPACT. I believe CONTRAIL will perform like his sire, who won Kikuka Sho by two lengths, although the trip of 3,000m is not ideal for DEEP IMPACT. 

14 out of 20 horses who finished first two in the last ten running of Kikuka Sho prepped at the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai, and all of those 14 horses finished within first three there. And four out of 20 horses who finished first two in the last ten running of Kikuka Sho prepped at the G2 St. Lite Kinen, and three of them finished within first two there.

My second choice is BABBITT, winner of the G2 St. Lite Kinen at Nakayama on 21st September. His sire NAKAYAMA FESTA finished second in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on sticky ground, and STAY GOLD, sire of NAKAYAMA FESTA, has sired three winners of the G1 Tenno Sho Spring over 3,200m. BABBITT should have inherited a lot of stamina from his sire line and I believe 3,000m is his best trip.

WELTREISENDE, second finisher in the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai, is my third choice, as he is also the grandson of STAY GOLD, and he should have inherited stamina from his dam, MANDELA, third finisher of the G1 German Oaks, as well.

Lightly-raced ROBERTSON QUAY, who finished third in the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai, is my fourth choice as I feel he has plenty of room to improve from his previous start.

And SATONO FLAG, who was the runner-up to BABBITT in the G2 St. Lite Kinen, is my fifth choice.


SELECTIONS: 3. CONTRAIL, 11. BABBITT, 6. WELTREISENDE, 13. ROBERTSON QUAY & 10. SATONO FLAG


S1-7    Kibune Stakes

Kibune Stakes is a stakes race for three time winners over 1,400m on dirt at Kyoto.

My first choice is BLUMENKRONE, 5YO mare by KING KAMEHAMEHA. She is a consistent runner, provided the track is dry. She has started the race of dirt surface for nine times, won five of them, finished second twice, when the going was good or good to soft, while she was well beaten, tenth and fifteenth, when the track was wet or muddy. While light shower is expected on Thursday and Friday at Kyoto area, it will be sunny on Saturday and Sunday and the condition of dirt track should be dry on Sunday, which BLUMENKRONE is able to run her race.

The form proves that BLUMENKRONE is competitive at this class, for example. She finished second in an allowance race for three time winners at Kyoto in May and finished second again in the allowance race for the same class at Chukyo last time out on 27th September. And it is important that Christophe Lemaire is booked for her on Sunday, and it is also encouraging that the last two running of Kibune Stakes were won by fillies and mares. I am confident to recommend the punters to place win bet on BLUMENKRONE.

Apart from BLUMENKRONE, the field of Kibune Stakes looks very open and it is not straight forward to answer the riddle. This is the first start since April for IT’S COOL, but he has been breezed at Ritto Training Centre twice a week since the end of September and I believe he is ready to run. And it is encouraging that Yutaka Take is booked for him. He is my second choice. 

I am pretty sure the best horse in this field is SPADA, 5YO horse by SPEIHTSTOWN. He has been regarded very highly since he was born, but the injury he suffered when he was a yearling was serious and it took time to achieve complete recovery, because he lost a lot of important muscle. After lengthy rehabilitation, SPADA regained his form last summer and collected five wins from six starts since then. Though this is the first start for him in this class, I am pretty sure that he could be competitive. On the other hand, there are two matters to concern. Firstly, this is the first start for him since 30th May, and I am not sure if he is ready to run now. Secondly, I am wondering if he is able to handle the track at Kyoto, where he has run once and was well beaten. Therefore, I decide to select him not higher than my third choice.

My fourth choice is MALLARD THE RECORD, who finished third in an allowance race for three time winners at Niigata on 15th August. Though this is the first start for the 6YO gelding by PIVOTAL to run the race over 1,400m since June 2019, he collected his first win in the maiden at the same course and distance as this race when he was 3YO.

And my fifth choice is SMART DRAKE, who finished the campaign at NAR and makes the first start at JRA since January 2019.


SELECTIONS: 9. BLUMENKRONE, 1. IT’S COOL, 14. SPADA, 6. MALLARD THE RECORD & 4. SMART DRAKE


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