Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Tenno Sho Autumn (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 Tenno Sho Autumn

I am monitoring weather forecast at Tokyo area for coming weekend very carefully, as the weather in autumn is always fickle. Though the track condition is one of the important factors when we infer the winners in horse racing, it could be the most crucial element as far as the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn on Sunday at Tokyo Racecourse, because the two main players, both are ladies, could perform entirely differently depending on the weather and track condition.

At the moment, no rain is expected from this Friday to Sunday. It means the going on Sunday at Tokyo should be firm. If so, my first choice is no other than ALMOND EYE. The Queen of Turf has started 13 times, won nine of them, and lost at four occasions. She was second in maiden over 1,400m, which was her racecourse debut, failed to win in the G1 Yasuda Kinen over 1,600m in 2019 and 2020, and was well beaten in the G1 Arima Kinen over 2,500m in last December. In other words, ALMOND EYE is unbeaten through nine starts provided the race distance is between 1,600m and 2,400m. And she established new track record, 2 minutes 20.6 seconds when she won the G1 Japan Cup, and the winning time, 1 minute 56.2 seconds when she won this race twelve months ago was only 0.1 second shy of the track record. It is strikingly apparent that ALMOND EYE is unbeatable at quick ground over 2,000m. 　

CHRONO GENESIS has been competing against the opponents with top calibre of her generation since 2YO season, when she finished second in the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, and the filly by BAGO collected her first G1 last autumn, winning the G1 Shuka Sho, final leg of Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies. It is amazing that she is still improving and much stronger this year. CHRONO GENESIS won the G2 Kyoto Kinen on soft ground in February and far more impressive was her performance in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen in June, which she won by six lengths. And it is worth noting that the ground at Hanshin on the day of Takarazuka Kinen was good to soft. CHRONO GENESIS is my second choice, though, the weather report is off and the track at Tokyo on Sunday becomes wet just in case, I would like to promote her as my first choice.

KISEKI is a good horse, but not straightforward. The 6YO horse by RULERSHIP has not managed to win a race since October 2017, and the losing streak has extended to 16. However, his last two starts, finishing second in the Takarazuka Kinen and second again in the G2 Kyoto Daishoten last time out, prove that he is still a strong contender in major races. KISEKI, who can handle any kinds of track, is my third choice.

I reckon we should not forget DANON PREMIUM, who was runner-up to ALMOND EYE in the Tenno Sho Autumn in 2019, although he has not won a race since April 2019, and he is my fourth choice.

And DAIWA CAGNEY, who has collected all his eight wins at Tokyo, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 9. ALMOND EYE, 7. CHRONO GENESIS, 8. KISEKI, 11. DANON PREMIUM & 3. DAIWA CAGNEY

Disclaimer:

The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.

HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.