 Expert - Brett Davis | |
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| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for Melbourne Cup Day (S2) (Brett Davis)
S2-1 BM96 Handicap
KNIGHTS ORDER is a former English stayer that found his way to the stable of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. It’s taken many months to get this horse right and he’ll have just his third start in two years. He recently lead all the way in a listed race at Randwick and showed incredible courage after being galloped on during the run. The big weight is a concern but he’s got plenty of class and is difficult to dismiss.
DJUKON is another Sydney galloper that comes through the same form line as KNIGHTS ORDER. He was third when they previously met but was reducing the margin in the run to the line. He’ll also have the task of carrying a big weight over 2,800m but he’s in good form and shall enjoy a lovely sit on the leaders, turning for home.
EUREKA STREET won a race eight weeks ago at Bendigo and has since delivered extremely competitive performances at various locations. Stepping out to 2,800m does create some concerns for this well exposed 7YO. However he’s fit honest and can handle any conditions and is expected to be a good each way price.
YONKERS is still building on his resume but is regarded as a solid and consistent stayer that always gives one hundred percent. Unlike other interstate invaders he’s already had the benefit of a run in Melbourne. He won a race at Caulfield and booted clear the final stages to win well. If the top weights struggle with their heavy loads this fellow can take certainly take the advantage.
VIN DE DANCE won the G1 New Zealand Derby in 2018 and has since been a regular visitor to Australia. His recent form has been below his overall capabilities however he’s drawn to do no work and is well in at the weights. A value runner.
SELECTIONS: 2. KNIGHTS ORDER, 1. DJUKON, 11. EUREKA STREET, 8. YONKERS & 4. VIN DE DANCE
S2-2 Batman Stakes
AIN’TNODEELDUN is a high class 3YO colt that’s been rather impressive in recent victories, firstly at Sale and then Morphettville in South Australia. He was potentially heading for the G1 Victoria Derby which was run last Saturday, however connections opted to head in this direction. Still far from the finished product you can expect this progressive son of DUNDEEL to really appreciate the big track at Flemington and take a stack of beating.
CONFRONTATIONAL is the young handsome 3YO colt by REDOUTE’S CHOICE that arrives after winning a listed race at Geelong at his most recent start. He’s right at the top of the ratings and is taking on some progressing 3YO talents. The set weight scale has him well in against the others and I’d be watching the markets, he’s a likely firmer in betting.
GRINZINGER LORD is exceptionally well bred, and bred to run all day long. He’ll be having just his third race start and further improvement is expected. The stable is well known for producing quality young animals at the races this time of year.
ACROPHOBIC is a Sydney colt that arrives in Melbourne for a crack at the spring carnival. There was plenty to like about his fourth placing in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes at Randwick and that form would certainly be adequate here. However, he’s highly strung and can get keen during his races, which is a concern.
MADE BY KHAN shall go around at a decent price as he’s still a maiden with everything to prove. The two runs in country Victoria have been against average opposition and on soft tracks. What has been encouraging from this youngster is his approach to the task. On both occasions he’s initially settled back then charged with a full hearted attempt at catching the leaders. That type of effort is always admired.
SELECTIONS: 2. AIN’TNODEELDUN, 1. CONFRONTATIONAL, 8. GRINZINGER LORD, 3. ACROPHOBIC & 11. MADE BY KHAN
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2: Banker – 2. AIN’TNODEELDUN
Selections – 1. CONFRONTATIONAL, 8. GRINZINGER LORD, 3. ACROPHOBIC & 11. MADE BY KHAN
S2-3: Banker – 11. TAVIDANCE
Selections – 2. GROUNDSWELL, 4. FOX HALL, 13. AQUEDUCT & 1. COMING AROUND
S2-3 BM90 Handicap
TAVIDANCE returns to racing following a twelve week break between runs. He’s a lightly race 5YO that’s gained significantly in stature since his last start demolition, where he won by a conservative six lengths. His record at Flemington is superb and he’s clearly a high quality galloper that’s continually improving with racing. Drawn perfectly and expected to settle on speed makes him difficult to oppose. He earns the top selection.
GROUNDSWELL has returned this preparation under the care of Anthony and Sam Freedman and is in career best form. His recent wins at both Cranbourne and Moonee Valley have been strong, hearty on pace performances. After drawing wide and having to work early, the long Flemington straight shall require him to dig deeper than he has in the past. The loyalty and commitment shown by Damian Lane suggests he’ll be right there until the end.
FOX HALL has endured multiple soundness issues throughout his career and his best has never really been witnessed. He returned to racing in August with a very creditable fourth in the G3 Spring Stakes at Morphettville behind recent dual G1 winner BEHEMOTH. A win at his most recent start has him gaining in confidence and his fitness level now almost peaking. He’ll be looking for cover early and the anticipated speed should enable him to join in when it counts. Very capable on his day.
AQUEDUCT is a former kiwi galloper that now resides in South Australia where he’s been in sensational form. He’s at his best when leading and controlling the tempo from the front. There’s always a strong kick to the wire and he’ll create a long sustained push a long way out if necessary. He’s won three of his last four and certainly warrants the trip to Flemington where he can be dangerous if left alone.
COMING AROUND started favourite when recently winning a handicap on soft ground. He’s undefeated at Flemington and has posted four wins over the 1,400m in the past. He’s effective on all surfaces and generally races handy to the speed.
SELECTIONS: 11. TAVIDANCE, 2. GROUNDSWELL, 4. FOX HALL, 13. AQUEDUCT & 1. COMING AROUND
S2-4 Melbourne Cup
ANTHONY VAN DYCK shall line up in this year’s G1 Melbourne Cup following a brilliant Australian debut. The G1 Caulfield Cup form line has always been held in high regard and I can’t see any reason why this year’s edition should be any different. As the top rated galloper the handicap conditions are again seemingly against him but that was the case in the Caulfield Cup as well. The journey of 3,200m is also under question and perhaps the combination of both, the weight and journey may in the end take its toll. It’s worth remembering the stable was extremely confident of his prospects going into the Caulfield Cup and not much seems to have changed since. At the end of the day a trouble free run is required by all and it’s hard to envisage a finish without his presence.
PERSAN enters the race with a solid foundation of fitness, form and ability. His record at Flemington is outstanding and he has the general required miles in the legs to engage the 3,200m for the first time. He’s a young stayer on the way up and he’s extremely well weighted against the more established big guns. It’s difficult to fault him in anyway so the only question remaining...is he good enough on the day?
SIR DRAGONET didn’t take long to become a household name in Australian Racing after dropping in first up to Moonee Valley and winning the coveted G1 Cox Plate. Only the elite greats can boast victory in both the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup, so another win for this fellow puts him in rare air. His overseas form was tremendous where he regularly carried 130lbs plus and jockey Glen Boss reported he was just warming up at the finish of his Cox Plate victory. If that’s the case he must be treated with respect.
VERRY ELLEEGANT is a high quality weight for age mare that’s blossomed over the last twelve months into Australia’s current queen of the turf. Her form is impeccable after she out stayed all opposition in the Caulfield Cup to bring up her sixth G1 win. She meets most of the major opposition still well at the weights, so it’s just a question of whether she can run the trip out stronger than the rest.
RUSSIAN CAMELOT was touted as Australia’s next super star six months ago, however the flame has quickly distinguished following his two recent defeats. There’s no doubt he’s become dour as this campaign has progressed, a normal scenario for a genuine stayer, and in review it was clearly evident that was the case his last two runs. The 3,200m on the big track might just be what he’s craving and I’m expecting him to show up, when the whips are cracking.
STEEL PRINCE put in a tough fighting effort to win the G3 Geelong Cup last week and won’t have any concerns heading to Flemington, where he has an exceptional record. He’s found his peak form and shall take his position on cup day for the second time. He was only beaten two lengths in last year’s cup and is definitely worth including in the exotics.
Others to consider KING OF LEOGRANCE, TWILIGHT PAYMENT and SURPRISE BABY.
SELECTIONS: 1. ANTHONY VAN DYCK, 24. PERSAN, 5. SIR DRAGONET, 7. VERRY ELLEEGANT & 15. RUSSIAN CAMELOT
S2-5 Furphy Plate (Melbourne Cup Day Plate)
HARBOUR VIEWS returns to handicap conditions following two honest efforts at G1 level, and at weight for age. He was a dominant force last preparation but has struggle a fraction this campaign with the superior opposition and level of contest. Returning to the 1,800m and easier competition also entitles him to strong claims in what looks a difficult race to sort. He can handle all track conditions and has performed well at Flemington in the past. Blinkers are also going on for the first time.
PURPLE SECTOR is a Sydney galloper that arrives in excellent form after bolting up in a handicap at Randwick at his latest outing. He’s already a G3 winner and he’ll sneak in to this event off a very light weight, due to the fact he’s dropped in ratings over the past 12 months. With him now recapturing near his best form he’s extremely well placed and must be entertained.
HOMESMAN looked super first up when he dominated the field to win the G2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley, leading all the way. The track was favouring on speed that day however his class and first up record helped to push aside quality opponents. He’s a proven G1 winner, since arriving to Australia from Ireland back in 2017, and judged on his recent return shall be very dangerous this campaign.
JUNIPAL was very much given a chance of winning the G1 Toorak Handicap at Caulfield but failed to cope with the pressures of G1 racing. His form prior was outstanding and the return to listed company is a major draw card. He’s drawn perfectly to gain the cover he requires, before joining in after they swing for home. A must include.
GAME KEEPER was undefeated last preparation wining four from four and expected to have a very prosperous spring. It hasn’t quiet unfolded that way and there wasn’t much to smile about in the G3 The Bart Cummings Handicap last start. He drops back in trip which is positive and if you are willing to overlook that poor run he’s likely to be competitive. He can atone and turn things around at a nice price.
SELECTIONS: 8. HARBOUR VIEWS, 15. PURPLE SECTOR, 1. HOMESMAN, 6. JUNIPAL & 14. GAME KEEPER
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5: Banker – 8. HARBOUR VIEWS
Selections – 15. PURPLE SECTOR, 1. HOMESMAN, 6. JUNIPAL & 14. GAME KEEPER
S2-6: Banker – 2. WILD VIXEN
Selections – 4. FABRIC, 3. LYRE, 15. CORDILLA & 5. MUSIC BAY
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 8. HARBOUR VIEWS, 15. PURPLE SECTOR & 1. HOMESMAN
S2-6: Multiple – 2. WILD VIXEN, 4. FABRIC & 3. LYRE
S2-7: Multiple – 17. THE ASTROLOGIST, 15. YAO DASH & 9. SHAMINO
S2-6 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (Maybe Mahal Stakes)
WILD VIXEN returned this campaign in brutal fashion at Geelong when she put away a strong listed field with contempt. She’s been very sparingly raced and has always looked well above average. She’s also proven in the past she can be ridden forward or back however she appears most potent when given time to settle early. There doesn’t appear to be great speed on paper so a prominent position in running is most likely. With a terrific turn of foot she can certainly make her presence felt.
FABRIC is extremely adaptable and can cope with both on speed or a more conservative approach from the barriers. She’s trained by the powerful Danny O’Brien stable with her recent form reading sound. She is also a two time winner at Flemington, so there are no issues with the track itself. However she’s is now well exposed and her best performance ratings have been achieved on a dry track.
LYRE has not won a race since her victory as a 2YO in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes back in February 2019. Since that famous victory she has taken on some of the best sprinters in the land and more than held her own. Again she returns to a race against her own sex and in the process to famous Flemington, for just the second time in her career. She loves to sit and dash so if they crack on speed and she secures galloping room, look out for her swamping them towards the end.
CORDILLA is another of these untapped and lightly raced thoroughbreds that Danny O’Brien keeps producing at the right time. This filly by SHAMUS AWARD is well out of her depth on ratings but very much on the upward spiral. It’s a real test of her ability but she just might be good enough.
MUSIC BAY is a G2 winner over 1,600m and her recent return to racing suggested she’s come back particularly well. Settling well back at Geelong she motored in to third over the insufficient 1,200m catching the eye of those watching closely. Today she’ll feel very much at home stepping up to 1,400m along with the return to Flemington, a circuit she consistently performs well at.
SELECTIONS: 2. WILD VIXEN, 4. FABRIC, 3. LYRE, 15. CORDILLA & 5. MUSIC BAY
S2-7 MSS Security Sprint (Always Welcome Stakes)
THE ASTROLOGIST transferred to a new stable in the last few months and returned to racing with a high quality first up victory at Geelong. This race is often suited to up and comers due to the handicap conditions offered, and this fellow is worthy of closer inspection. He’s far from the finished product and can get fizzy around the barriers but there’s plenty still to work with going forward.
YAO DASH is also a smart youngster from the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable that arrives with a formidable form line. He finished fourth in the G1 Golden Rose in 2019 beaten less than two lengths by BIVOUAC, who recently finished second in the world’s richest turf race, The Everest. He steps in to this race first up since April but has looked super winning two trials at Randwick in preparation.
SHAMINO is an eight time winner that’s trained by the in form Philip Stokes yard. Last campaign he elevated himself to a new level and his recent performance at Caulfield suggested there is still more to follow. The query is the straight 1,200m which is untried however he’s a strong closer that handles most tasks thrown his way.
WILLIAM THOMAS arrives fit and ready to fire following three encouraging runs this preparation, and he’s already a listed winner. He’s a back marker that likes to trail before unleashing his trademark turn of foot. He hardly ever runs a bad race and is rarely beaten far, in what ever he contests. He’s a real professional that’s drawn well out wide.
ONE MORE JACK is a remarkable story and will make his debut in Melbourne. When he first began racing he was useless, the slowest horse in the stable. The frustrated trainer applied the blinkers and he’s since gone on to win seven races from nine starts. It’s his toughest task this time but he’s a real marvel that loves a fight to the wire.
SELECTIONS: 17. THE ASTROLOGIST, 15. YAO DASH, 9. SHAMINO, 2. WILLIAM THOMAS & 16. ONE MORE JACK
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