Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth II Cup Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1    3yo and up 1 win

The turf track at Hanshin at current autumn meeting is quick, and there is a tendency that front runners and runners who track the leaders closely are running better than closers. I understand I should select the horses who can take good position handily.

My first choice is KILLER PRESENCE, 4YO filly by HEART’S CRY, who had series of training setback and has run only six times so far. In April 2019, she finished third to LOVES ONLY YOU, who won the G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) subsequently, in a Listed race, and I am sure she has the ability to win the class for one time winners easily. She finished second in the allowance race for one time winners at Kyoto on 10th October, and I think it is a good performance, as it was the first start for her since April 2019. I have found from her morning track work that she is improving her condition significantly since the previous start.  

LES ANNEES FOLLES has started at this class for four times and finished within first four at all occasions. He finished third in the allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin last December and I think Hanshin is a suitable track for him. His recent track works look mediocre, however, he is a lazy horse in the morning and I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday. LES ANNEES FOLLES is my second choice.

LIEN TISSAGE, 3YO colt out of ROBE TISSAGE, winner of the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, is my third choice. I understand he is the horse who need long gap between races, as he won the maiden at Hakodate on 19th July, which was his first start since September 2019. On the other hand, he did not run any race after he finished fourth in the allowance race at Sapporo on 5th September, which was only a week after his previous start. This is his first start since then and he is very fresh now. I think he runs his race on Sunday.    

AILES BRAVE is the winner of the maiden over the same course and distance as this race on 6th June, which he made all. Though he was well beaten in the allowance race for one time winners at Fukushima on 1st November, it was his first start since June and I reckon he was not ready to run yet. Since the previous start, he is trained well at Ritto Training Centre, and I am sure he runs better on Sunday than last outing. AILES BRAVE is my fourth choice. 

I BLANCO is a closer and his running style is not suitable for the quick turf track at Hanshin. However, his sharp turn of foot is still attractive and I cannot ignore the 3YO colt by CAPE BLANCO. It is encouraging that Hiroyuki Uchida, who knows this horse very well, is booked to ride. I BLANCO is my fifth choice. 

SELECTIONS: 8. KILLER PRESENCE, 4. LES ANNEES FOLLES, 7. LIEN TISSAGE, 9. AILES BRAVE & 6. I BLANCO


S1-2    3yo and up 2 wins

There is a few track bias over 1,800m on dirt at Hanshin and it is the tendency that better horses run better there. The first turn is tight and how to handle the tight turn is crucial to the result. 

My first choice is MATENRO SPARK, who graduated the class for one time winners at Chukyo on 3rd October. He competed at this class for the first time at Tokyo on 31st October, when he finished fourth in the allowance race for two time winners. I have the feeling that the distance of that race, 2,100m, was too long for the colt by HEART’S CRY, and 1,800m is the best trip for him. He is still improving and I have feeling that he should be able to compete in higher class. 

CRESCENT MOON performed well at this class earlier this year, as he finished third in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race in June, and finished fourth in another allowance race for the same class at Fukushima on 19th July. Though the 4YO colt by HENNY HUGHES was beaten and finished twelfth in the allowance race at Tokyo on 17th October, it was his first start since July and I understand he was not ready to run yet. I believe he runs much better on Sunday than the previous start, and CRESCENT MOON is my second choice.

Although this is the first start for LOFTINESS since July 2019, he has been trained well with Grade Stakes performers in the morning and I feel the colt by SCREEN HERO is ready to run his race. If so, I think I should regard him highly. In fact, he finished third in an allowance race for two time winners last year, and BEST TOUCHDOWN, who finished second to LOFTINESS in the allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin in June 2019, is now a Graded Stakes performer. LOFTINESS is my third choice. 

ASAKA DISTANCE was upset winner of the allowance race for one time winners at Kyoto on 18th October, which was the first start for him since August 2019. I am impressed with the strong challenge he delivered on homestretch, and the winning time is faster than standard. As long as he reproduces this form on Sunday, I believe he has good chance to finish in first four on Sunday.

MEISHO DAJIN ran the prep races for the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) on turf twice in spring and finished fifth and sixth respectively. Although they were not bad performances, I think the colt by TRANSCEND acts better on dirt than on turf. While he was well beaten in the G3 on 9th August, when he could not handle the muddy track at Niigata. I think he has ability to compete well at this class.

SELECTIONS: 3. MATENRO SPARK, 6. CRESCENT MOON, 11. LOFTINESS, 12. ASAKA DISTANCE & 5. MEISHO DAJIN

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:    Banker – 3. MATENRO SPARK
Selections – 6. CRESCENT MOON, 11. LOFTINESS, 12. ASAKA DISTANCE & 5. MEISHO DAJIN
S1-3:    Banker – 9. REINHEIT
Selections – 2. SATURN, 3. ELEVATEZZA, 7. COLUMBUS DAY & 5. PIZZICATO


S1-3    3yo and up 2wins

There is 525m straight course from the start to the first turn, while the length of straight course from the exit of final turn to finish is only 356.5m, at 2,200m turf course at Hanshin. There is the tendency that the pace of the races is not so fast and is suddenly picked up around at 800m pole. And it is not an easy course for front runners to complete wire-to-wire victory. 

REINHEIT finished fourth in the G2 St. Lite Kinen at Nakayama on 21st September and I regard this performance highly, as it was the first start for the colt by HERAT’S CRY since June and alsssssl of first three finishers are Graded Stakes winners. And he responded well when the pace was picked up at half way there. Although he was well beaten in the allowance race for two time winners last time out, he was forced to run three wide and four wide all way through, and I believe he will have better trip on Sunday. REINHEIT is my first choice.

SATURN was transferred from JRA to NAR, after failing to win maiden at JRA. The colt by DEEP IMPACT, who is a full brother to CANTABILE, winner of two Graded Stakes, won three races at regional racing at Hokkaido and returned at JRA this autumn. And SATURN won allowance race over 1,900m on dirt at Kyoto on 17th October. It means he collected all his wins at dirt course, however, his pedigree suggests he acts better on turf than on dirt. And his workout at Ritto on Wednesday, when he clocked 51.9 seconds for 800m at uphill track, was wonderful. SATURN is my second choice.  

ELEVATEZZA finished third in the allowance race for two time winners at Niigata on 5th September last time out. There was no pace and it proved to be the test of turn of foot in the end. ELEVATEZZA does not have a sharp turn of foot and it was not a suitable race for the filly by DEEP IMPACT. Hence, I regard this performance highly. And, in fact, she won maiden at Hanshin last December and Hanshin should be suitable for her. ELEVATEZZA is my third choice. 

COLUMBUS DAY finished third in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race in June, and is a suitable horse for the races over 2,200m on turf at Hanshin. Though she was beaten seventh in the allowance race at Tokyo on 17th October, it was the first start for her since July and she was not ready to run her race. COLUMBUS DAY is my fourth choice.

PIZZICATO, who finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Kyoto on 10th October, is my fifth choice. Although the turf track at Hanshin at current autumn meeting may be too quick for the 7YO gelding, I believe he is still able to finish within first five on Sunday. 

SELECTIONS: 9. REINHEIT, 2. SATURN, 3. ELEVATEZZA, 7. COLUMBUS DAY & 5. PIZZICATO


S1-4    Kigiku Sho

Kigiku Sho is a stakes race for 2YO one-time winners over 2,000m on turf.

There are three impressive maiden winners, name ADMIRE SAGE, NIHONPIRO MARIBU, and QUEEN’S LAVENDER, in the field, and it looks three way battle between them.

ADMIRE SAGE and QUEEN’S LAVENDER, were ridden by Yuga Kawada in the maiden, and Kawada selects QUEEN’S LAVENDER for Kigiku Sho. I think this is a right choice, because the performance of the filly by HEART’S CRY in the maiden at Chukyo on 3rd October was so impressive. She tracked leader from second position, being settled very well, and draw right away at top of homestretch to score by two and a half lengths. The winning time 2 minutes 0.6 seconds is the new track record of 2YOs, and only 0.1 second slower than CANTOR, who won the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance on following day. I believe she is a potential runner in the G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) next year, and should have ability to beat the colts and win Kigiku Sho. QUEEN’S LAVENDER is my first choice.

The connection of ADMIRE SAGE, whom Yuga Kawada does not choose here, has booked Christophe Lemaire for Kigiku Sho, and the colt by DURAMENTE is my second choice. In fact, his morning track work in prior to winning maiden at Kokura on 6th September was not so brilliant, however, he knew what he needed to do in the race and won the maiden by three lengths. He is a half brother to LOGI UNIVERSE, winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) in 2009, and should have a plenty of room to improve. And he is working better in the morning now.

NIHONPIRO MARIBU is the winner of the 1,800m maiden at Kyoto on 17th October, using impressive late kick. As the inner track at Hanshin is used for Kigiku Sho, there are two turns and the length of the homestretch is 356.5m. In fact, he won the maiden at outer track of Kyoto, which has one turn and the homestretch is approximately 400m long there. I understand the tighter course with shorter homestretch is not favourable for NIHONPIRO MARIBU, and do not think he can beat QUEEN’S LAVENDER and ADMIRE SAGE there. Hence, NIHONPIRO MARIBU is my third choice.

SELECTIONS: 2. QUEEN’S LAVENDER, 4. ADMIRE SAGE & 1. NIHONPIRO MARIBU


S1-5    Autumn Leaf Stakes

While Autumn Leaf Stakes is not given the status of Listed race, graded stakes performers are eligible to enter this race. 

While there is no outstanding runner and looks very open, I believe the most reliable runner is Godolphin’s RECIPROCATE. The form shows the 4YO colt by DAIWA MAJOR is consistent. Since he won the allowance race for three time winners at Hanshin on 20th June, he started three times at this class and hit the board at all occasions, including Listed race at Chukyo on 12th September, when he was runner-up to JASPER PRINCE, who made a trip to USA to run the G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint subsequently. He was beaten fourth in the Listed race at Tokyo on 11th October, when he could not have a smooth run, and that performance was not bad, finishing less than three lengths behind the winner. And he likes the dirt course of Hanshin, as he has started there for four times, won two of them, and finish second once. RECIPROCATE is my first choice.

The favourite track for T O TARGET is also 1,400m dirt at Hanshin, as he won allowance races for one time winner and two time winners over the same course and distance as Autumn Leaf Stakes on 18th April and 5th July respectively. The 4YO colt by KINSHASA NO KISEKI graduated the class for three time winners last time out, when he won allowance race at Kyoto on 25th October. Since then, he has been trained beautifully at Ritto Training Centre and I believe he should be able to compete in this class. T O TARGET is my second choice.

VANILLA ICE is the third finisher in Autumn Leaf Stakes twelve months ago, and she finished third again in the race of the same class as Autumn Leaf Stakes, at Kyoto on 2nd May. Although she finished fourth in the Listed race at Chukyo on 12th September, it was the first start for her since May. She should run better on Sunday than the previous start, and the 1,400m dirt course at Hanshin should suit her as well, because she finished second in a Listed race over the same course and distance in 2019. VANILLA ICE is my third choice.

GIRASOL, who finished third in the race of the same class, course and distance as Autumn Leaf Stakes, on 13th June is my fourth choice.

HARGREAVES finished third in a Listed race at Tokyo on 11th October. I think he performed quite well as it was the first start for him since June. Though I am worried that he has never run at Hanshin before, I select him as my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 3. RECIPROCATE, 7. T O TARGET, 10. VANILLA ICE, 8. GIRASOL & 9. HARGREAVES

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:    Banker – 3. RECIPROCATE
Selections – 7. T O TARGET, 10. VANILLA ICE, 8. GIRASOL & 9. HARGREAVES
S1-6:    Banker – 11. LOVES ONLY YOU
Selections – 18. LUCKY LILAC, 8. CENTELLEO, 13. SALACIA & 1. SHADOW DIVA

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 3. RECIPROCATE, 7. T O TARGET & 10. VANILLA ICE
S1-6: Multiple – 11. LOVES ONLY YOU, 18. LUCKY LILAC & 8. CENTELLEO
S1-7: Multiple – 10. ISSHIN, 13. JO FOREST & 3. MARRONE METALLICO

S1-6    Queen Elizabeth II Cup

As there is neither ALMOND EYE nor CHRONO GENESIS in the field, I believe the best horse in the field of the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Hanshin on the coming Sunday is LOVES ONLY YOU, winner of the G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) last year.

It was twelve months ago when the filly by DEEP IMPACT experienced her first defeat when she was beaten third in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup in 2019, and she has not managed to win a race since then. There are certain excuses which explain her defeat at four consecutive outings. Last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Cup was the first start for her since Yushun Himba and she needed the run. She was beaten seventh in the G1 Victoria Mile in May, when the distance, 1,600m, was too short for her. She ran well in the G3 Naruo Kinen in June and was just unlucky to lose the battle by nose. And she finished fifth in the G2 Fuchu Himba Stakes in October, when she did not like the soft ground. LOVES ONLY YOU has won a Listed race at Hanshin by three lengths last year and Hanshin is her favourite track. It is obvious that she has been improving since her previous start and I am confident to select LOVES ONLY YOU as my first choice. 

The horse to beat LOVES ONLY YOU is LUCKY LILAC, who has won three G1 races including the G1 Osaka Hai in April at Hanshin, and finished second to GLORY VASE in the G1 Hong Kong Vase last December. She was well beaten in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin in June, when she did not like sticky surface. Autumn meeting at Hanshin has just started on 7th November and the track there is still fresh and quick, which LUCKY LILAC likes. She is my second choice.

CENTELLEO won the G2 Sankei Sho All Comers at Nakayama on 27th September beating CURREN BOUQUETD’OR by nose and collected her first Graded Stakes. Her performance was impressive as CURREN BOUQUETD’OR had finished second in the G1 Yushun Himba and second in the G1 Japan Cup. The 5YO mare was fourth in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup last year, finishing less than two length behind the winner, LUCKY LILAC. She should have chance to finish in first three on Sunday.

Seven out of the eight first and second finishers in last four running of Queen Elizabeth II Cup prepped at the G2 Fuchu Himba Stakes at Tokyo, and I understand we should not ignore SALACIA, who won this year’s Fuchu Himba Stakes by three lengths. SALACIA is my fourth choice.

And my fifth choice is SHADOW DIVA, who finished second to SALACIA in the Fuchu Himba Stakes. I am sure the extra 400m should help her to display a better performance.

SELECTIONS:11. LOVES ONLY YOU, 18. LUCKY LILAC, 8. CENTELLEO, 13. SALACIA & 1. SHADOW DIVA


S1-7    Doncaster Cup

Doncaster Cup is a stakes race for two time winners over 1,200m on dirt at Hanshin.

American-bred ISSHIN graduated the class for one time winners on 11th July, when he won the allowance race at Hakodate. The colt by TAKE CHARGE INDY proves that he is competitive at the class for two time winners, finishing second in the allowance race at Niigata on 2nd August and second again in the allowance race at Kokura on 22nd August. I thought he should be able to graduate this class very soon, however, I was wrong. ISSHIN was beaten sixth in the allowance race at Niigata on 18th October, while the pace was too strong for the front runner. The pace of the races over 1,200m on dirt at Hanshin tends to be moderate, and I think ISSHIN can run his race on Sunday. ISSHIN is my first choice.

It is the first time for JO FOREST to compete in this class, as 3YO colt by DANON CHANTILLY has just graduated the class for one time winners on 21st September, when he won the allowance race at Nakayama. It was only the second start for him at the class for one time winners, and it is obvious that he is now improving significantly. JO FOREST is my second choice. 

MARRONE METALLICO finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 25th October, and the 5YO mare by HENNY HUGHES should have chance to finish in first three here, if she reproduces that form on Sunday, though the handicap, 119lbs, is slightly heavier than I thought.

My fourth choice is MOHER, who finished third in the allowance race for two time winners at Kyoto on 24th October carrying 121lbs. She carries 115lbs on Sunday. While her previous start was on turf, the 6YO mare by BATTLE PLAN won an allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race in March, and it is no doubt that she can handle the dirt track at Hanshin. 

SHINZEN MAX had temperament issue which prevented him to show his true ability at races. He is now behaving much better and ran steadily in last three starts. Though it is the first time for the 4YO colt by KANE HEKILI to compete in this class, as he has just graduated below class last time out, winning the allowance race for one time winners at Niigata on 25th October, I feel he is able to compete in this class now. SHINZEN MAX is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 10. ISSHIN, 13. JO FOREST, 3. MARRONE METALLICO, 8. MOHER & 7. SHINZEN MAX




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