 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Mile Championship (S2-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S2-1 Mile Championship
This year’s field of the G1 Mile Championship has quality and depth, as the best milers of 3YOs, 4YOs and 5YOs are getting together.
GRAN ALEGRIA has been regarded very highly by her connection since she was a 2YO, for example, she skipped the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies and ran against colts in the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes instead, although she was beaten third to ADMIRE MARS there. Four months later, the filly by DEEP IMPACT won the G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), first leg of the Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies, and met the high expectation. And it is amazing that she continued to evolve and what she has achieved so far this season is more than the high expectation. GRAN ALEGRIA won the G1 Yasuda Kinen, championship race for milers during the first half of the season, beating ALMOND EYE, one of the best female athletes in the world, and she displayed more impressive performance in the G1 Sprinters Stakes at Nakayama on 4th October. She was almost the last to enter the homestretch and used unbelievable turn of foot to win by two lengths. It is one of the greatest “come-from-behind” performances. While Mile Championship is usually taken place at Kyoto Racecourse, it is transferred to Hanshin this year, as Kyoto is closed for renovation, and it helps GRAN ALEGRIA, because there is a longer homestretch at Hanshin than at Kyoto, her late kick works better. GRAN ALEGRIA is my favourite.
As well as GRAN ALEGRIA, ADMIRE MARS has captured three G1s so far, as he won the G1 NHK Mile Cup and the G1 Hong Kong Mile last season, in addition to the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes in 2018 over the same course and distance as Mile Championship. He has run only twice this year, and one of them is the G2 Swan Stakes at Kyoto on 31st October, when he finished third. I think he performed quite well, because he is the horse who needs a race to gain 100% fitness, and I am pretty sure he runs much better on Sunday than his previous start. ADMIRE MARS is my second choice.
There are three 3YOs who won G1 races over 1,600m in the field and the most interesting runner among them is SALIOS, winner of the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes in 2019. He was runner-up to CONTRAIL in the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) and the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), first and second leg of the Triple Crown in spring, and won the G2 Mainichi Okan at Tokyo on 11th October by three lengths beating older horses, although the standard of the competitors were not so high. I reckon he has the ability to finish within first three in this quality field.
INDY CHAMP, winner of the G1 Yasuda Kinen and the G1 Mile Championship in 2019, failed to achieve a back-to-back win in this year’s Yasuda Kinen in June, when he finished third, and has not run since then. As like ADMIRE MARS, INDY CHAMP needs a race to gain 100% fitness. Although he is a good miler, I cannot assess him better than fourth choice.
LAUDA SION, winner of the G1 NHK Mile Cup in May, finished second in the G2 Fuji Stakes at Tokyo on 24th October, competing against older horses, and I think it is a good prep for this race. LAUDA SION is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 4. GRAN ALEGRIA, 7. ADMIRE MARS, 17. SALIOS, 8. INDY CHAMP & 6. LAUDA SION
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