 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Japan Cup (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 Japan Cup
This is the final career start for ALMOND EYE, The Queen of Turf who won eight G1 races, including the Triple Tiara in 2018. In addition, two undefeated winners of Triple Crown and Triple Tiara in 2020, CONTRAIL and DARING TACT, meet up there. It is a fascinating dream match and I cannot wait for Sunday.
This reminds me the 32nd running of the G1 Japan Cup in 2012, when GENTILDONNA, ORFEVRE and SOLEMIA ran together. The 3YO filly, winner of the Triple Tiara in 2012, was just a nose ahead of the 4YO colt, winner of the Triple Crown in 2011, after the pair displayed exciting ding-dong battle on the homestretch, while the 4YO filly, winner of the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in 2012, was well beaten 13th. If I reflect this result on this year’s picture of the Japan Cup, projected winner on screen will be DARING TACT.
As a principle, Japan Cup is a tough race for 3YO fillies as only two 3YO fillies managed to win it. They are GENTILDONNA, whom I previously mentioned, and ALMOND EYE in 2018. It is the question that if DARING TACT is as good as GENTILDONNA and ALMOND EYE.
My answer is yes. DARING TACT had run only twice before the G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) and she is one of the most unexperienced Oka Sho winners. Apart from her, HAMAKAZE in 1948 and HAGINO TOP LADY in 1980 managed to win Oka Sho as their third start. The ground at Hanshin on the day of Oka Sho was yielding which she had never experienced, but she handled it easily. And she was boxed in at 400m pole in the G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) and needed to switch route. If she had a smooth run, I assess she should have won the Yushun Himba by two lengths. This is the first time for her to run against older horses, however, I believe she is able to get over the high hurdle. DARING TACT is my favourite.
CONTRAIL is the third undefeated winner of Triple Crown, after SYMBOLI RUDOLF in 1984 and DEEP IMPACT in 2005. Both of SYMBOLI RUDOLF and DEEP IMPACT experienced the first defeat in their career in the next start after winning the G1 Kikuka Sho, final leg of the Triple Crown. I understand both of them were not stayers and the trip of 3,000m in Kikuka Sho was a tough challenge for them. And Kikuka Sho on 25th October was also a tough and tiring race for CONTRAIL. While I am sure he will run well in Japan Cup, CONTRAIL is my second choice.
ALMOND EYE is the horse who needs relatively long gap between races and I am worried Japan Cup may come too soon after the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn for her. Her past performances show that she can win the next race only if she has at least a six weeks break, however it is only four weeks from Tenno Sho Autumn. This is the reason why I evaluate her lower than DARING TACT and CONTRAIL.
CURREN BOUQUETD'OR, who has been running consistently at the highest level and finished second in Japan Cup last year, is my fourth choice.
GLORY VASE should have good chance to finish within first five, as long as he reproduces his form when he won the G1 Hong Kong Vase by three and a half lengths.
SELECTIONS: 5. DARING TACT, 6. CONTRAIL, 2. ALMOND EYE, 1. CURREN BOUQUETD’OR & 15. GLORY VASE
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