Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Arima Kinen Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 2yo 1 win

This is the allowance race for 2YO one time winners over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama. 1,200m dirt race at Nakayama is tricky, because starting barrier is set on turf course and surface changes from turf to dirt at approximately 80m after the break. While the pace of race tends to be quick, front runners and the horses who track leaders closely have better chance than closers, because the sand on homestretch is quite deep.

My favourite is YOSSHI FAITH, who finished third in the allowance race for one time winner at Hanshin on 13th December. I reckon it was a good performance, because it was the first start for the colt by SOUTH VIGOROUS since July, and it is obvious that he needed the run. And he was involved in furiously fast pace, but he still managed to finish only three and a quarter of lengths behind the winner. When he won the maiden at Hanshin in July by six lengths, second finisher was BAKUSHIN who has already graduated the class for one time winner and finished fifth in the domestic G1 Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun at Kawasaki. I believe YOSSHI FAITH has very good chance to win on Sunday.

YESENIA, who makes successful racecourse debut over the same course and distance as this race, is my second choice. In fact, she behaved childish at parade ring and I thought she was still very green. Therefore, I am very impressed to see her winning the maiden efficiently. While this is her first start since September, YESENIA is working well in the morning at Miho Training Centre and has improved in the last three months. She should have chance to win successively.

ENERGY ROSSO is a consistent dirt runner, who started four times and finished within first three at all of them, since he switched to dirt races after failing to win three turf races. While she does not look like a sprinter apparently, she has very good speed and I feel Nakayama is a suitable course for her. ENERGY ROSSO is my third choice.

NARINO PEPPER, winner of a maiden over same course and distance on 27th September, was slow to break and finished sixth in the allowance for one time winners at Nakayama on 6th December. Since then, he has been trained well for this race and his physical condition is better than he was before the previous start. If he breaks well, I believe he is competitive at this class, and NARINO PEPPER is my fourth choice.

FIRE DANCER won maiden over the same course and distance as this race on 5th December by three lengths and the winning time, 1 minutes and 12.3 seconds, is faster than standard. She is powerful enough to compete in this class and FIRE DANCER is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 13.YOSSHI FAITH, 7. YESENIA, 5. ENERGY ROSSO, 4. NARINO PEPPER & 2. FIRE DANCER

S1-2 3yo and up 1 win

This is the allowance race for one time winners over 1,800m on dirt.

My favourite is CAFE SPERANZA, who sidelined for eight months due to injury, after winning a maiden at Tokyo by four lengths in February. This winning performance gave me the impression that the colt by HEART’S CRY should be competitive at higher class. He ran three times since he returned to the battle line, finished third in allowance race at Tokyo on 14th November and second in allowance race at Chukyo on 5th December. I believe the time has come for CAFE SPERANZA to win.

AMERICAN FACE finished second in the allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 13th December, and I think it was a good effort, because it was the first start for the colt by TAPIT since June. While he does not have sharp turn of foot, he can put on a long spurt. And he is real fighter and is strong at close contest. He has improved and is now a much better horse than he was at the beginning of season. AMERICAN FACE is my second choice.

MEINER ILARGI is a tough and versatile runner. In addition, the colt by BEHKABAD is consistent, as he has started 12 times and finished within first three at eight races. While this is the first start for him since July, he has been trained very well at Miho Training Centre since he returned from Big Red Farm at the end of November. And I think he can be competitive in this class. MEINER ILARGI is my third choice.

ONLY ONE BOY, who sidelined for more than five months from June to November, has run twice since he resumed full training. His performance in the allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 6th December, when he finished fifth, is much better than the previous start, the allowance race for one time winners at Tokyo on 14th November when he finished ninth. And his morning track works are showing that his condition has been improving since the last start. He has won a maiden over the same course and distance as this race in March and ONLY ONE BOY is my fourth choice.

WIN RESERVE is the winner of the maiden over the same course and distance as this race. This is the first start for him since May, he has been trained very well in the morning at Miho Training Centre and it is obvious he has improved physically and mentally in the last six months. WIN RESERVE is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 12. CAFE SPERANZA, 11. AMERICAN FACE, 7. MEINER ILARGI, 13. ONLY ONE BOY, & 14. WIN RESERVE

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 12. CAFE SPERANZA
         Selections – 11. AMERICAN FACE, 7. MEINER ILARGI, 13. ONLY ONE BOY & 14. WIN RESERVE
S1-3: Banker – 16. DIASTIMA
         Selections – 4. DIVINE FORCE, 10. SMILE, 12. PELE & 7. LAHIRE

S1-3 Goodluck Handicap

Goodluck Handicap is the stakes race for two time winners over the same course and distance as the G1 Arima Kinen.

My favourite is DIASTIMA, very consistent 3YO colt by DEEP IMPACT. He finished third in the G3 Keisei Hai in January and I believe he has ability to compete in Graded Stakes company. Though he was well beaten in the G2 Aoba Sho at Tokyo in May, jockey stopped driving and eased at the top of the homestretch, as the jockey felt something was wrong. After having nearly five months summer off, he returned to action, won the allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo in September, and finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 1st November. There is an encouraging statistic for DIASTIMA that five winners of the last ten runnings of Goodluck Handicap are 3YOs, and I think his handicap, 121lbs, is reasonable.

Another consistent runner in the field of Goodluck Handicap is DIVINE FORCE. The 4YO colt by WORKFORCE has finished second in this class for three times in the last four starts including runner-up to SECRET RUN and BAIE DES ANGES over this course and distance. In addition, he finished fourth in the G1 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) last autumn. It is obvious that he has ability to win in this class, enough stamina to run 2,500m, and likes 2,500m course at Nakayama. Since his previous start, he has been trained well at Ritto Training Centre and his condition is better than he was before. DIVINE FORCE is my second choice.

My third favourite is SMILE. Since he graduated the class for one time winners in March, the 4YO colt by DAIWA MAJOR finished within first four twice at this class. And Nakayama is his favourite course as he has collected all his two winners there. Though he has not run since August, he is trained well at Miho Training Centre and his workout on 17th December was brilliant.

PELE finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo in June and it was a good performance. The 4YO filly by HEART’S CRY likes Nakayama, where she started twice and finished second at both occasions. And it is encouraging that Christophe Lemaire is booked for her. PELE is my fourth choice.

LAHIRE has just graduated the class for one time winner last time out at Nakayama on 4th October. I believe the 4YO colt by DEEP IMPACT, who is half brother to four time G1 winner LUCKY LILAC, should have a plenty of room to improve and he is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 16. DIASTIMA, 4. DIVINE FORCE, 10. SMILE, 12. PELE & 7. LAHIRE

S1-4 Best Wishes Cup

Best Wishes Cup is the stakes race for two time winners over 1,800m on dirt at Nakayama. This is a tough course, as the runners ascend the uphill on homestretch twice in the race and the sand is usually deep. And this is a suitable course for front runners and the horses which track leaders, who have power and stamina, than closers who have sharp turn of foot.

My favourite is CANNON BAROWS, who finished second in allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 29th November. As we consider it was the first start for the 4YO gelding by EMPIRE MAKER since September and first start for him to run against two time winners, we should regard this performance highly. While he has not run at Nakayama, his running style should suit the track at Nakayama, as he made all in the allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 19th September and finished second in the allowance race at Hanshin on 29th November after tracking front runner from second position.

My second choice is SECRET EYES who has just graduated the class for one time winners at Tokyo on 29th November. He ran on turf for nine times in a row since his debut, won one race, finished second once and third once. Kazuo Fujisawa who trains SECRET EYES tried to send the colt by DEEP IMPACT to the race on dirt for the first time at Tokyo on 1st November, when he finished second in allowance race for one time winners. And then, he won the allowance race on dirt for one time winners last time out. It is obvious that SECRET EYES acts on dirt better, and I believe he is competitive in this class.

While CRESCENT MOON is not consistent, the 4YO colt by HENNY HUGHES has finished third twice in this class. Both of them are the allowance races at Hanshin, where the course layout is similar to Nakayama. I think CRESCENT MOON has chance to finish within first three here.

KYOEI PALAST won the maiden at Niigata on 23rd August and the allowance race for one time winners at Niigata on 25th October last time out. It is obvious that the 3YO colt by ESKENDEREYA is now improving rapidly. And he collected those two wins over 1,800m on dirt, and I believe this is a suitable race for him. While the competition here is tougher than the previous starts, I think KYOEI PALAST has chance to finish within first four here.

COPANO RICH MAN was transferred from JRA to NAR earlier this year, after he ran three times and failed to win a race at JRA. Then, the 3YO colt by HENNY HUGHES collected four wins at NAR. In addition, he finished second in Kuroshio Hai, which is a NAR Graded Stakes at Oi Racecourse. This is the first start for COPANO RICH MAN, since he returned from NAR to JRA, as a much better horse, and he is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 6. CANNON BAROWS, 15. SECRET EYES, 16. CRESCENT MOON, 9. KYOEI PALAST & 4. COPANO RICH MAN

S1-5 2020 Farewell Stakes

2020 Farewell Stakes is the stakes race for three time winners over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama.

Some of the horses with high profile are excluded from the field through the drawing lots organized on Thursday afternoon, and this is the most difficult race to forecast in seven simulcast races from Nakayama on Sunday.

NONLICENSE graduated the class for two time winners at Kyoto on 2nd May. The 4YO filly by PYRO finished within first four in the class for three time winners twice since then. Although she was beaten sixth in the allowance race at Hanshin on 7th November, she finished within four lengths from the winner and it was not a bad effort. And she has been working very well at uphill track at Ritto Training Centre recently, for example, she clocked 50.8 seconds on 9th December and 50.9 seconds on 16th December for 800m there. It is obvious that her physical condition is improving and NONLICENSE is my favourite.

SNARK STAR who has finished second in allowance race for three time winners twice, is my second choice. The 4YO gelding by NEO UNIVERSE has finished second in the allowance race for three time winners at Niigata on 25th July, and I believe he has ability to compete well at this class.

Recent form of SUZUKA CAUSE MAMBO proves that the 3YO colt by SUZUKA CAUSEWAY is improving rapidly now. He won the allowance race for one time winners at Tokyo on 11th October, and finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 8th November, although he was slow to leave barrier. And he won the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 29th November. Although 1,200m is slightly shorter than the ideal distance for him, I believe SUZUKA CAUSE MAMBO has chance to finish in first three here.

FORZA F, who has finished third in the allowance race for three time winners at Niigata on 15th August, is my fourth choice. While he was beaten eighth in the allowance race for three time winners at Chukyo on 20th December, the 5YO horse by PIONEEROF THE NILE finished only less than three lengths behind the winner, and 1,400m was slightly too long for him.

KAMINOKO who won the allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 13th December, is my fifth choice. Yutaka Take is booked for him.

SELECTIONS: 5. NONLICENSE, 7. SNARK STAR, 14. SUZUKA CAUSE MAMBO, 13. FORZA F & 12. KAMINOKO

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 5. NONLICENSE
         Selections – 7. SNARK STAR, 14. SUZUKA CAUSE MAMBO, 13. FORZA F & 12. KAMINOKO
S1-6: Banker – 13. FIEREMENT
         Selections – 9. CHRONO GENESIS, 10. CURREN BOUQUETD’OR, 5. WORLD PREMIERE & 12. AUTHORITY

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 5. NONLICENSE, 7. SNARK STAR & 14. SUZUKA CAUSE MAMBO
S1-6: Multiple – 13. FIEREMENT, 9. CHRONO GENESIS & 10. CURREN BOUQUETD’OR
S1-7: Multiple – 14. ALPINISM, 2. FERMI SPHERE & 3. VOLUSPA

S1-6 Arima Kinen

There is neither Triple Crown winner nor Queen of the Turf in the field, however, eight G1 winners compete in the G1 Arima Kinen, year-end championship race in Japan, and it is as gorgeous as ever.

My favourite is FIEREMENT, who completed back-to-back win of the G1 Tenno Sho Spring at Kyoto in May. The 5YO horse by DEEP IMPACT finished second to ALMOND EYE in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn at Tokyo on 1st November, which was the first start for him since Tenno Sho Spring, and I am very impressed by his performance there. I judged FIEREMENT was a stayer, because he had won three G1 races over 3,000m and 3,200m, and I thought Tenno Sho Autumn over 2,000m was too short for him.

In fact, I was wrong and FIEREMENT is much sharper than I thought. He finished only half a length behind the winner ALMOND EYE, covering final 600m for 32.7 seconds, which is actually quicker than ALMOND EYE, who covered final 600m for 33.1 seconds. And he skipped the G1 Japan Cup to save his energy for the Arima Kinen, and Christophe Lemaire, who picked up the mount of ALMOND EYE in Tenno Sho Autumn, rides FIEREMENT in the Arima Kinen. I select FIEREMENT as my first choice with assurance.

It is no doubt that the standard of female horses in Japan is the highest ever, and the field of the Arima Kinen include five attractive fillies and mares. My second choice is from one of them, CHRONO GENESIS. The 4YO filly by BAGO, who is half sister to the G1 Hong Kong Cup victor NORMCORE, won the G1 Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin in June by six lengths, which is super impressive. Despite being bumped badly soon after the break, she was only neck behind FIEREMENT and finished third in the Tenno Sho Autumn. I am not surprised if she reverse the order with FIEREMENT in the Arima Kinen.

Another female horse whom I like is CURREN BOUQUETD’OR, who is very consistent. She finished second in G1 races for three times and finished within first four in all of her 12 starts, while she has never won any Graded Stakes. The 4YO filly by DEEP IMPACT was only one and a half lengths behind ALMOND EYE and finished fourth in the G1 Japan Cup at Tokyo on 29th November, the race which is recognized as “race of century”. Kenichi Ikezoe is booked for her in the Arima Kinen and I expect the change of rider may change her luck.

WORLD PREMIERE, third finisher in the Arima Kinen in 2019, was beaten sixth in the Japan Cup. However, it was his first start of 2020, as he had training setback earlier this year, and I understand he needed the run. The 4YO colt by DEEP IMPACT has been trained very well at Ritto Training Centre since then, and I understand he is ready to run his race on Sunday,

I believe AUTHORITY, 3YO colt by ORFEVRE, should have the potential to become a star horse in near future, and he is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 13. FIEREMENT, 9. CHRONO GENESIS, 10. CURREN BOUQUETD’OR, 5. WORLD PREMIERE & 12. AUTHORITY

S1-7 Happy End Cup

Happy End Cup is the stakes race for two time winners over 1,200m on turf at Nakayama.

Five winners of last seven running of Happy End Cup are 3YOs and I believe I should select my favourite from fresh 3YO sprinters.

ALPINISM graduated the class for one time winners at Niigata on 9th August, when he won the allowance race, and then, was well beaten in the allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 3rd October, when he was boxed in and could not have smooth trip. Rider was changed for the next start, allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as Happy End Cup on 13th December, and ALPINISM finished second, beaten by neck. This is the performance which proves that the 3YO colt by LOHENGRIN is competitive in this class. He has been trained beautifully at Miho Training Centre since the previous start, and ALPINISM is my favourite.

My second choice is FERMI SPHERE. She finished fourth in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 24th October and I regard this performance highly, because it was the first start for the 3YO filly by EPIPHANEIA since July and first start running against two time winners for her. It looked her tank became empty in the final 200m in the previous start and I believe it is a good idea to try the race over 1,200m for the first time. And she likes Nakayama where she finished within first three in two starts, including running third in a Listed race.

VOLUSPA has finished within first three in this class for five times, including running second in the allowance race over the same course and distance as Happy End Cup on 19th January. The 5YO mare by LORD KANALOA likes 1,200m turf course at Nakayama, because she collected her two wins there. VOLUSPA is my third choice.

COSMO ANGE finished second to MEISHO MIMOSA in the allowance race for two time winners at Sapporo on 23rd August. As the winner, MEISHO MIMOSA, subsequently finished second in the allowance race for three time winners at Chukyo on 26th September, I believe the form of that race should be regarded highly. As long as COSMO ANGE re-produces this form, the 3YO filly by TO THE WORLD should have good chance to finish in first four here. And COSMO ANGE has finished second in maiden over the same course and distance as this race last year.

JUNIPER BERRY, who has finished within first five at this class in the last four starts in a row, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 14. ALPINISM, 2. FERMI SPHERE, 3. VOLUSPA, 5. COSMO ANGE & 12. JUNIPER BERRY

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