 Expert - Jack Milner | |
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| Veteran journalist Jack Milner has been involved in horseracing since 1972. From then on he followed the sport closely so in 2006 when he was offered the position with Phumelela Gaming & Leisure as Managing Editor of their Publishing Department, he jumped at the chance. He is also instrumental in sending tips and previews to international customers who subscribe to South African racing. Milner is known to be an astute studier of form who reads a race very well. He is one of the leading tipsters in the country where he has a big following. He has attended international events such as the English Derby and Oaks, Royal Ascot and the Melbourne Cup. | |
Expert Column for Met Day (S1) (Jack Milner)
S1-1 Pinnacle Stakes
A competitive and interesting race as the recent form suggests a close finish.
SNOW REPORT is back to his best and scored a nice win over the course and distance last time out. He is, however, closely matched on paper with rival CABO DA CRUZ on that run. But with SNOW REPORT having the better draw he may end up coming out on top once again.
CABO DA CRUZ should be fitter third time up in his raid from KwaZulu-Natal and runners from the Dennis Drier stable appear to have turned the corner and they had a welcome winner last Saturday.
PINKERTON is the form runner, having won four of his last starts, but is closely matched with CAPTAIN OF STEALTH based on his last run. With the change in weights, both should be concerned with the finish.
VIA SALARIA is the second of the Drier- trained runners. Three wins in 2019 showed him at his best and his recent form has only been modest, but a return to his best could see him as the surprise package of the race.
Others such as HUDOO MAGIC, KING OF GEMS and HURRICANE HARRY are not without chances and must be considered.
SELECTIONS: 5. SNOW REPORT, 7. CABO DA CRUZ, 9. PINKERTON, 6. CAPTAIN OF STEALTH & 10. VIA SALARIA
S1-2 Summer Juvenile Stakes
Many punters will probably regard the Justin Snaith-trained HIGH HOSANNA as an exotic banker on the day, but that could be dangerous in a race filled with highly talented youngsters.
Currently Cape Town’s most successful and charismatic trainer, Snaith also saddles KWINTA’S LIGHT, but it’s HIGH HOSANNA who appeals most.
The filly was a couple of hundred metres into her debut run when she realised she wasn’t just being treated to an outing with friends. The moment that penny dropped, she was all racehorse, moving to the front, drawing away from the field and winning by an ever-extending margin. She is open to any amount of improvement and if she races from the word go, she will be hard to beat.
But she’s not the only natural runner in the field. In fact, every one of the nine runners lining up have proven that they don’t like coming second – except, of course, debutante AMBIORIX.
BARZALONA is another who made the game look easy with his debut victory coming after a sustained late run.
SHELDON, the lone raider in the field, from the KwaZulu-Natal yard of Dean Kannemeyer, has not only shown an abundance of talent, but also showed massive character when out-gritting AISLING on debut after an epic race. Based on that fighting spirit, he must be a serious contender.
BARZALONA and AFRICAN RAIN are both more than capable and will be fighting out the finish.
SELECTIONS: 4. HIGH HOSANNA, 3. SHELDON, 2. BARZALONA, 1. AFRICAN RAIN & 7. KWINTA’S LIGHT
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 4. HIGH HOSANNA
Selections – 3. SHELDON, 2. BARZALONA, 1. AFRICAN RAIN & 7. KWINTA’S LIGHT
S1-3: Banker – 1. KOMMETDIEDING
Selections – 2. RASCALLION, 4. HOEDSPRUIT, 10. DUBAI LIGHTS & 9. MACH FOUR
S1-3 Politician Stakes
From whatever angle one may come at this race, it looks to be a two-horse affair between KOMMETDIEDING and RASCALLION. They are both top-class performers and the best weighted runners in this event.
KOMMETDIEDING is a very interesting horse. He comes from a very small stable run by a veteran trainer and his daughter. Harold Crawford has been around in Cape Town for many years but his daughter, Michelle Rix, was added to his ticket after Crawford suffered a heart attack a few years back.
They have had the odd decent horse over the last few years but appear to have found a sensational addition to their stable with the strangely named son of ELUSIVE FORT. KOMMETDIEDING (which, literally translated from Afrikaans, means “bring me the thing”) made his debut in a Non-Black Type feature race over 1,200m and went off at 16-1. He mowed down the opposition to win easing up and after the race jockey Sihle Cele said this was the best horse he had every ridden.
Later on they had a few problems with him and that is why he missed out on some of the 3YO features, including the G1 Cape Guineas. He returned over 1,200m in December and once again left a decent field in his wake. Then, trying some ground for the first time, he took on a decent field of older horses in a handicap and coasted to a comfortable 3.5 lengths victory. There is a lot more to come from him and he will be very hard to beat.
RASCALLION has run against the best 3YOs in the Western Cape and has finished third in three successive feature races, including the G1 Cape Guineas. Anton Marcus has picked up the ride for the first time and Vaughan Marshall’s charge looks the main threat to KOMMETDIEDING.
HOEDSPRUIT is another who has run in some of the top features but he was twice beaten by RASCALLION and at level weights once again, is unlikely to reverse the form.
DUBAI LIGHTS has also run behind RASCALLION but Vaughan Marshall’s charge does have a slight edge this time. He was beaten by three lengths over 1,600m but now meets RASCALLION on 6lbs better terms. He has also proven the distance will suit him after winning his last start over 2,000m.
MACH FOUR was a two-time winner at Kenilworth. It is also interesting to note that stable jockey Richard Fourie has elected to ride MACH FOUR over HOEDSPRUIT, so that could be significant.
SELECTIONS: 1. KOMMETDIEDING, 2. RASCALLION, 4. HOEDSPRUIT, 10. DUBAI LIGHTS & 9. MACH FOUR
S1-4 Cape Flying Championship
This could very well be the race of the day, and whatever the outcome, there’s bound to be tears of joy, and disappointment.
Can RUSSET AIR defend his title successfully? Can KASIMIR regain the title he won in 2019? Can BOLD RESPECT go one better after being runner-up two years running? Will ERIK THE RED remain unbeaten over 1,000m? Will CELTIC SEA record a hat-trick of wins at Kenilworth and add a fourth G1 title to her name? Or will RUN FOX RUN claim a first G1 victory for which she is undoubtedly destined?
All these questions will be answered less than a minute after the gates crash open on Met Day, but only one will get a positive answer.
RUSSET AIR, the defending champion trained by Candice Bass-Robinson, has not seen the inside of the winner’s enclosure in seven runs since his surprise victory last year when going off at 22-1.
The Justin Snaith-KASIMIR, however, seems to have emulated his preparation which saw him win this title in 2019 and at the age of six – one of the oldest runners in the field - could prove that an old dog doesn’t have to learn new tricks.
BOLD RESPECT, trained by Brett Crawford, probably gets his last shot at victory in this contest as he is also now 6YO. Twice runner-up, his chances of going one better on current form seems highly unlikely. Expect him to take the early lead and to run on until his tank his empty.
ERIK THE RED is one of the stars among an above-average crop of current 3YOs. Unbeaten in two runs over course and distance, and already a six-time winner, this CAPTAIN AL colt is fresh off two G2-victories. Trainer Justin Snaith won the G1 Queen’s Plate with 3YO JET DARK recently and it won’t surprise if he emulates that feat with another horse destined for greatness.
CELTIC SEA, however, is probably the runner to beat. As a three-time G1 winning mare, Sean Tarry’s charge doesn’t have to punch above her weight to be victorious.
The lightly raced RUN FOX RUN, with Anton Marcus in the saddle, should be more than just a contender. This 5YO mare went from debutante to a G2-winner in her first five unbeaten runs. Fourth and second in two G1s, she’s destined to go one better. This might just be her day.
SELECTIONS: 10. CELTIC SEA, 11. RUN FOX RUN, 12. ERIK THE RED, 1. KASIMIR & 6. RIO QUERARI
S1-5 Majorca Stakes
This race looks a straight duel between the two-time winner and the heir apparent.
CLOUDS UNFOLD has been a sensation since the first time she appeared at a racecourse. She coasted home on debut and then went on to win seven of her first nine starts. Included in that run of victories, was her first win in the G1 Majorca Stakes. On that occasion she raced clear to beat LADY IN BLACK by 1.5 lengths.
She had a few problems after that and returned to this race in January 2020 in the hope of pulling off a second successive victory. With 100m to run it appeared CELTIC SEA had the race in the bag but CLOUDS UNFOLD took off late and snared Sean Tarry’s charge on the line to win by 0.3 lengths. Now the Candice Bass-Robinson-trained 5YO will be looking to pull off a Majorca Stakes treble.
Standing in her way is Justin Snaith-trained 3YO CAPTAIN’S RANSOM. This daughter of CAPTAIN AL has run five times for four wins and a close second, but it’s her last two runs that really catch the eye. Her penultimate win was in the G3 Diana Stakes over 1,400m at Durbanville and in that event she beat CLOUDS UNFOLD by 0.3 lengths. She did get 22lbs from the mare and this time that has been reduced to 11lbs.
CAPTAIN’S RANSOM went on to easily win the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas, beating PRINCESS CALLA, who is running in the G1 The Met, by 2.25 lengths.
While racing is known for its upsets, it is hard to imagine the winner not coming from one of these two.
CHAT CHING is the other 3YO in this field and she finished fourth in the G1 Paddock Stakes behind QUEEN SUPREME last time and fill a minor placing in this race.
The same is true for SILVANO’S PRIDE, who although has won some small features and is rarely far off the winner, has yet to prove she can beat the best and could finish at the back end of the quartet.
PRETTY YOUNG THING did have CLOUDS UNFOLD behind her when third in the G1 Garden Province Stakes over 1,600m at Greyville but a wide draw over that course and distance is a disaster and CLOUD UNFOLD had to jump from barrier 13. PRETTY YOUNG THING is generally better over shorter but could run into the money.
SELECTIONS: 1. CLOUDS UNFOLD, 10. CAPTAIN’S RANSOM, 11. CHAT CHING, 2. SILVANO’S PRIDE & 3. PRETTY YOUNG THING
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 1. CLOUDS UNFOLD
Selections – 10. CAPTAIN’S RANSOM, 11. CHAT CHING, 2. SILVANO’S PRIDE & 3. PRETTY YOUNG THING
S1-6: Banker – 3. BELGARION
Selections – 9. QUEEN SUPREME, 1. RAINBOW BRIDGE, 2. DO IT AGAIN & 11. PRINCESS CALLA
S1-6 The Met
This race tends to bring together the best middle-distance runners in the country and this year is no exception.
Trainer Justin Snaith has probably the biggest stable in the country and once again he has a strong hand in this race. He sends out three of the 11 runners including BELGARION, DO IT AGAIN and AFRICAN NIGHT SKY and there is no doubt BELGARION is the runner they all have to beat.
The 5YO son of DYNASTY has only raced 11 times for eight wins and two places but it really all came together for him after he was gelded. He reeled off six successive victories which included five features, encapsulating last year’s G1 Durban July, South Africa’s premier handicap, over 2,200m at Greyville.
BELGARION was rested after that but came back to win the G2 Green Point Stakes over 1,600m at Kenilworth before finishing third behind stablemate JET DARK in the G1 Queen’s Plate over the same course and distance. He was not suited to the slow early pace and there is no question he will benefit from the additional 400m in The Met. He has a top jockey in Richard Fourie and will be in the pink of condition.
The only concern is his wide draw, but this is a small field and they do have an 800m straight before they hit the turn, so it should not be a problem.
Mike de Kock has won this race three times and he runs Irish-bred mare QUEEN SUPREME. He could have gone the easier route and put her in the G1 Majorca Stakes against her own sex but she comes into this race off an impressive victory in the G1 Paddock Stakes over 1,800m. With her 5.5lbs sex allowance, she runs in The Met as one of the best weighted runners.
As she was bred in the northern hemisphere she’s actually six months younger than the other 5YOs and is only just reaching her peak right now. Keagan De Melo rode her in the Paddock Stakes and he is up again.
RAINBOW BRIDGE won this race in 2019 and was runner-up last year. It will come as a major surprise if he does not contest the finish. He showed his well-being last time with a solid second in the Queen’s Plate and will have talented young jockey up in Luke Ferraris.
DO IT AGAIN has won many of the key races in South Africa but this race has eluded him. He ran second to RAINBOW BRIDGE in 2019 but lost his form last season. Snaith, however, seems to have him back to his best and with Anton Marcus up, the son of TWICE OVER has a chance to finally add The Met to his record.
In 2018, OH SUSANNA became the first 3YO filly to win The Met in over a century. PRINCESS CALLA will be looking to emulate that feat. She is a very good filly and is trained by Adam Marcus, son of former champion jockey Basil Marcus.
PRINCESS CALLA will love this distance, carries just 113lbs and has a very in-form Grant van Niekerk in the irons.
SELECTIONS: 3. BELGARION, 9. QUEEN SUPREME, 1. RAINBOW BRIDGE, 2. DO IT AGAIN & 11. PRINCESS CALLA
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 3. BELGARION, 9. QUEEN SUPREME & 1. RAINBOW BRIDGE
S1-7: Multiple – 2. CROME YELLOW, 3. KAMPALA CAMPARI & 1. ATYAAB
S1-8: Multiple – 1. SOCIAL BUTTERFLY, 3. VIRIDIAN LIGHT & 2. OHWHATANIGHT
S1-7 Western Cape Stayers
Stayers races in South Africa are notoriously challenging for trainers, owners and especially punters, as this category of racing has, over the last few decades, not quite grabbed the attention of the race-going public.
Testament to this is the fact that there is not a single G1 stayers race on the calendar in the country.
The result is that there is very little depth when it comes to this category of racing, with trainers at times having a ‘let’s try-our-luck’ attitude when it comes to the longer format.
While 10 horses will be lining up in the G2 Western Cape Stayers over 2,800m, it is interesting to note that only DHARMA has actually gone 3,000m or further in his career, having contested the G3 Gold Cup over 3,200m and the G3 Gold Vase over 3,000m at Greyville last year.
ATYAAB, CROME YELLOW, and KAMPALA CAMPARI have not jumped from beyond the 2,800m marker, while the rest of the runners have been limited to 2,500m or shorter.
With that said, CROME YELLOW seems the horse to beat. Winner of the G3 Cape Summer Stayers over 2,500m last time out and the Listed Woolavington Stakes over 2,400m prior - both over this course – he looks set to record the hat-trick. At least his proven himself twice over a fairly long distance.
As a bonus, this 6YO TRIPPI gelding tops the speed rating column. Should the race be run at what has become known as the Cape crawl, he should be able to outsprint the other contenders when it matters.
The Cape crawl has, in the past, resulted in some odd results, notably in the 2019 renewal of the G3 Cape Summer Stayers over 2,500m, won by DHARMA, but in a slower time than that of a Maiden Plate over the same distance on the same day.
ATYAAB and veteran campaigner KAMPALA CAMPARI are the biggest threats, along with newcomers to the ‘staying’ ranks SILVER HOST as well as MOON IN JUNE, 4YO filly CATCHFALLINGSTAR and Brett Crawford’s SUPER SILVANO.
SELECTIONS: 2. CROME YELLOW, 3. KAMPALA CAMPARI, 1. ATYAAB, 7. SILVER HOST & 8. SUPER SILVANO
S1-8 MR 76 F&M Handicap
SOCIAL BUTTERFLY, the daughter of G1 winner RAT BURANA has only the one win to show in her five starts to date but was not disgraced when runner-up in her last two starts and gets Anton Marcus aboard for the first time. That alone could see a change of luck and a winner’s cheque for the VAR filly.
It is interesting to note that SOCIAL BUTTERFLY's win was over 1,200m on a heavy track which would suggest that she may need further in time but her recent good form against stronger over this course and distance makes her the one to beat.
The Justin Snaith-trained and Richard Fourie-ridden VIRIDIAN LIGHT looks the main threat. The GIMMETHEGREENLIGHT filly was an unlucky loser last time out after being slowly away.
OHWHATANIGHT was also slowly away in her last start but it did not cost her owners anything as she stormed past her rivals to win nicely. The runner-up, LITTLE DOE, scored last week so the form has held up nicely. The drop back from 1,000m could be a problem though.
QAARAAT and MISS MILLSTREAM are both competitive without winning off their current handicap rating and probably won't be good enough to score but are capable of earning some money.
SELECTIONS: 1. SOCIAL BUTTERFLY, 3. VIRIDIAN LIGHT, 2. OHWHATANIGHT, 5. QAARAAT & 7. MISS MILLSTREAM
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