 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Dubai Super Saturday (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Al Bastakiya
The stand-out horse in this 1,900m Listed for 3YOs on dirt is the South American raider EL PATRIOTA, who has won three of his four races in Uruguay.
Those victories came over distances ranging between 1,500m and 2,500m.
EL PATRIOTA has quickly acclimatised in Dubai and made an impressive winning debut over this course and distance in January, overcoming a wide draw to sweep past six horses in the last 200m and score with plenty in hand.
The three who chased him home, SPEIGHT’SPERCOMETE, ENDIFAA and FIRE GROUP, take on EL PATRIOTA again, but, with the weights the same they will be pushed to reverse the form, as will EFFECTIF, LEOPARDO, GRAND DUBAI and SHARP SPUN, all of whom finished even further behind.
SPEIGHT’SPERCOMETE, who had the worst draw and started at huge odds, is again in a wide stall, but he is still in with a squeak as it’s always dangerous to ignore any Doug Watson runner on dirt.
ENDIFAA also can’t be ruled out. Though he enjoyed a soft lead in front, he only ran out of petrol in the last 50m. He has finished in the frame on all three of his races so far.
European challenger LEOPARDO is dirt-bred and won first time out on the tapeta surface at Newcastle, and, though disappointing on turf here last time over 1,900m, Mark Johnston hopes he’ll run better back on the artificial.
But the main threat to the Uruguayan raider is PANADOL, who hammered ENDIFAA by seven-and-three-quarter-lengths in a maiden over 1,600m on dirt on his debut here last month.
PANADOL, who made all the running and had the prize sewn up early in the straight, comes from a good family.
Furthermore, Salem bin Ghadayer has enjoyed an excellent Carnival this winter, leading the trainer’s list until Godolphin found their form in early February.
NAYEFAH, arguably the better of the two fillies in the race, produced her best run yet when second at big odds in the G3 UAE Oaks over 1,900m in February. She has now been runner-up in three of her four races, but she has often paid the penalty with a slow start, so if she breaks on terms she could be in the mix.
MAYEHAAB makes his debut on the dirt, but trainer Fawzi Nass has a high opinion of him, having gone straight from winning his maiden over 1,400m on turf to taking on the smart NAVAL CROWN in the Listed Meydan Classic over 1,600m.
GRAND DUBAI has been disappointing since he won here over 1,600m in December, and he finished well behind LEOPARDO on his turf debut here over 1,900m last month. But he was fifth in the UAE Guineas Trial over 1,600m so is not short of ability.
SELECTIONS: 1. EL PATRIOTA, 8. PANADOL, 12. NAYEFAH, 10. SPEIGHT’SPERCOMETE & 3. ENDIFAA
S1-2 Dubai City of Gold
WALTON STREET will be hopeful of following up his impressive five-length win last time out at Meydan with victory in this 2,410m G2 contest.
Victorious in his January run in a listed handicap over course and distance, beating DUBAI FUTURE, DESERT FIRE, and COMMUNIQUE, this will be the first time the gelding has stepped in to G2 company.
He had come close to securing G3 honours over 2,500m at Deauville in August 2019 when missing out on the top prize by a short neck and before that he was a close third over 2,700m in a G3 at Newbury in 2018.
Charlie Appleby knows what it takes to win this race having won it the past three years, and he looks to have a good chance with the 7YO, although you’d have to go back to 2013 to find the last winner of that age.
WALTON STREET will be partnered by the in-form William Buick who will be going for his third victory in this race.
Reopposing from that same Meydan handicap is the Saeed bin Suroor-trained DUBAI FUTURE who claimed his second course victory when the gelding bounced back from defeat to take the Listed Meydan Cup over 2,810m in February.
Second in the G3 Nad Al Sheba Trophy over 2,810m 12 months ago at Meydan, the 5YO has shown a taste for the Dubai track only finishing outside of the placings once in his five starts here.
In the Meydan Cup, back in eighth place was COMMUNIQUE, ridden by Mickael Barzalona, who reopposes at his preferred 2,410m trip.
The 5YO is a two time G2 winner over this distance and looks set to put up a bold display under Barzalona who won this race 12 months ago.
5YOs have a good record in this race winning 12 of the 23 renewals, although COMMUNIQUE hasn’t been seen in the winners’ enclosure since July 2019 when landing the G2 Princess of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket over 2,400m.
Frankie Dettori is the most successful jockey in the race having won it a record six times.
He is aboard DUBAI WARRIOR who had his first start at Meydan last month contesting the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R2 over 1,900m. On these terms DUBAI WARRIOR looks fairly unexposed as he steps up to 2,410m for the first time and if he can see out the trip he has to be respected.
The Godolphin-owned DESERT FIRE, who was back in fifth place on his first run at Meydan this year against WALTON STREET, had the better record when the two met at Lingfield over 2,321m and it was DESERT FIRE that came out on top.
Saeed bin Suroor has won this race a record 10 times and will hope that his gelding is able to reverse the Meydan form with WALTON STREET.
Bin Suroor also saddles BRILLIANT LIGHT who has finished in the first four on all three starts at Meydan this year and has chances of picking up some prize money.
SELECTIONS: 6. WALTON STREET, 3. DUBAI FUTURE, 4. DUBAI WARRIOR, 2. DESERT FIRE & 1. COMMUNIQUE
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 6. WALTON STREET
Selections – 3. DUBAI FUTURE, 4. DUBAI WARRIOR, 2. DESERT FIRE & 1. COMMUNIQUE
S1-3: Banker – 5. CANVASSED
Selections – 11. PREMIER STAR, 9. IMPORTANT MISSION, 3. BEHAVIORAL BIAS & 8. GOOD EFFORT
S1-3 Mahab Al Shimaal
CANVASSED should take this step up in class to G3 level in his stride.
He looked a sprinter going places when too good for IMPORTANT MISSION and BEHAVIORAL BIAS in a 1,200m dirt handicap at Meydan last month when LAVASPIN was back in fifth.
That was his first run in a sprint having done most of his previous racing over 1,600m.
His top-class pedigree suggests he should have excelled over those distances but he’s clearly got a lot of speed and is unexposed over this distance.
He looked a cracking prospect in Britain a couple of years ago when winning his first two races and having switched to join trainer Doug Watson he looks ready to fulfill his potential.
IMPORTANT MISSION has been blasting off in front in recent starts but his 1,200m defeat of BEHAVIORAL BIAS at Meydan in December came when ridden more patiently.
He was only beaten close home when runner-up behind Watson’s AL TARIQ over 1,200m at this track in February ago so he is clearly versatile.
GOOD EFFORT also likes to go from the front. He completed an impressive five-timer when winning a Listed prize over 1,201m on Lingfield’s polytrack in November.
He is entitled to sharpen up for his fourth in a 1,200m G3 at Meydan in January but he does have to prove he can run to his best on this dirt surface.
PREMIER STAR, a stablemate of CANVASSED, is a progressive dirt sprinter. He won very well at Monmouth Park in America in October over 1,200m to add to victories at Laurel Park and Gulfstream Park.
This will be his debut at Meydan but there’s no reason why he won’t take to the track and he looks a classy sprint prospect with a top trainer.
ALKARAAMA won a 1,000m Listed prize at Jebel Ali when LAVASPIN was back in fourth last year, but he’s been found out in better races since including when well beaten by AL TARIQ on his last two starts.
Jim Crowley prefers him to ENJAZAAT, who is ridden by Dane O’Neill. He was a dual winner when trained by Owen Burrows in Britain in 2019 but has not shown much in two races this winter.
He beat just one other horse in a 1,200m Listed contest at Meydan in December and finished last of 10 when returned to turf in a 1,400m G2 at the same track in January.
UPPER CLASS lived up to his name in sprints over 1,000m and 1,100m in Uruguay but he couldn’t make any impression following a slow start in a 1,200m G3 on his Meydan debut in January.
SHANAGHAI CITY has a fair record in handicaps. He won twice over 1,000m last year and was also successful when stepped up to 1,600m at Abu Dhabi.
He was touched off in another handicap over 1,400m at Jebel Ali last month and is in good form but he needs to prove he is up to this G3 level.
SELECTIONS: 5. CANVASSED, 11. PREMIER STAR, 9. IMPORTANT MISSION, 3. BEHAVIORAL BIAS & 8. GOOD EFFORT
S1-4 Burj Nahaar
This G3 race over 1,600m on dirt has attracted some old favourites, including KIMBEAR, who captured the prize in 2018 and the 9YO NORTH AMERICA.
The latter was third in a blanket finish behind KIMBEAR in the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R1 over 1,600m here last year but then bombed out completely in the Saudi Cup.
NORTH AMERICA undoubtedly has the class – he ran respectably in the G1 Dubai World Cup over 2,000m two years ago – and, though he returns after a year off the track, he has won after a break before.
KIMBEAR is trained by Doug Watson, who has won three of the last five runnings of this race, who also saddles MIDNIGHT SANDS and GOLDEN GOAL.
Significantly, stable jockey Patrick Dobbs has deserted KIMBEAR, who has not shown his customary dash in two races this year.
He has instead chosen to ride MIDNIGHT SANDS, who is two years younger than his stablemates and has been plying his trade in handicaps, so now take a big step up in class.
MIDNIGHT SANDS shouldn’t be dismissed lightly. Dobbs is a very shrewd judge and rarely gets it wrong.
Unbeaten in four races under the pilot over 1,400m and 1,600m at Meydan last season, MIDNIGHT SANDS has to be respected back in the UAE, and he is probably the improver of the Watson trio.
One who can go well at what will be a big price is TUZ, who has had niggling problems which is why he has only run four times.
He was off the track for 11 months before making an encouraging return in a 1,600m handicap here two weeks ago.
Too fresh after his 11-month absence, TUZ was in front at half-way, and, not surprisingly, faded close home, finishing fourth, one place ahead of GOLDEN GOAL. He’ll improve plenty with that race behind him.
TUZ never broke sweat when winning both his races in Russia as a 2YO over 1,200m and 1,600m, and Satish Seemar, who then took charge, rates him highly, and jockey William Buick will adopt more patient riding tactics this time around.
BLOWN BY WIND produced a career-best when beating a subsequent winner in a G3 at Jebel Ali over 1,600m in January, and you can forget his flop next time over 1,900m as he completely blew the start and never got involved.
He is the second top-rated in the race, so also commands respect.
So does the one filly in the race, DOWN ON DA BAYOU, who made all in the G3 UAE Oaks over 1,900m here last year, winning by a staggering 18.5 lengths.
She went to King Abdulaziz nine days later and started favourite for the Samba Saudi Derby Cup over 1,600m, in which she ran disappointingly.
She then had a year off and would have needed her comeback in last month’s G2 Balanchine over 1,800m, but it remains to be seen if she is the force she was.
SELECTIONS: 15. TUZ, 9. MIDNIGHT SANDS, 10. NORTH AMERICA, 7. KIMBEAR & 1. BLOWN BY WIND
S1-5 Jebel Hatta
One of the most fascinating runners in the 1,800m G1 Jebel Hatta has to be LORD GLITTERS.
Chasing his second G1 success and fourth Group win overall, the 8YO grey is a force to be reckoned with on his day and will be well in the mix if running up to his best.
From his six runs over 1,800m, he’s won two, including the G2 Singspiel Stakes at Meydan two starts back, and placed in the other four.
Often held up and saved for a late closing dash, connections will be hoping for a good early pace and a traffic-free run in the home straight.
AL SUHAIL has leading claims of giving Godolphin a seventh win from the last nine renewals of this race.
Though a disappointing 14 of 15 in the G1 2000 Guineas over 1,600m at Newmarket last June, he bounced back to form over the same distance on Newmarket’s July course the following month to land the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes by a commanding six lengths.
With the natural progression expected for a son of DUBAWI, and assuming Charlie Appleby has him fully wound up after eight months off the track, AL SUHAIL could be very hard to beat.
The jockey booking of Frankie Dettori on ROYAL MARINE can’t be ignored, but the RAVEN’S PASS gelding will have to step up on what he’s shown over the past 12 months.
Now a 5YO, he’s without a win since his juvenile season in 2018 when landing the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere over 1,600m, and others are preferred.
ZAINHOM spring a surprise by winning the Listed 1,600m Meydan Challenge on his last start last week and could run into a place.
Nothing he’s shown so far suggests he’s up to winning a G1, but he arrives here in winning form and should give a good account of himself if handling the step up to 1,800m.
Lightly-raced 5YO ART DU VAL isn’t without a chance, having run creditably in both his starts at Meydan this term.
A fourth in the G2 Singspiel Stakes over 1,800m was followed with a third in the G2 Zabeel Mile over 1,600m, and on both occasions he paid the price for racing up with the strong pace.
More conservative tactics may help his cause and he’s one of the more unexposed runners in the field.
On ratings, COURT HOUSE can’t be dismissed, while his last start second in the G2 Al Rashidiya over the same course and distance is another positive.
Andrea Atzeni could be asked to set the fractions up front again and a clever ride could see him finish in the money.
SELECTIONS: 1. AL SUHAIL, 7. LORD GLITTERS, 2. ART DU VAL, 4. COURT HOUSE & 10. ROYAL MARINE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 1. AL SUHAIL
Selections – 7. LORD GLITTERS, 2. ART DU VAL, 4. COURT HOUSE & 10. ROYAL MARINE
S1-6: Banker – 9. SECRET AMBITION
Selections – 8. SALUTE THE SOLDIER, 11. THEGREATCOLLECTION, 1. DUBAI MIRAGE & 6. ROMAN ROSSO
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 1. AL SUHAIL, 7. LORD GLITTERS & 2. ART DU VAL
S1-6: Multiple – 9. SECRET AMBITION, 8. SALUTE THE SOLDIER & 11. THEGREATCOLLECTION
S1-7: Multiple – 8. ROYAL CRUSADE, 4. MAN OF PROMISE & 6. MOTAFAAWIT
S1-6 Al Maktoum Challenge R3
Given that Frankie Dettori holds the record for most wins as a jockey (seven times) of the 2,000m G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3, and Saeed bin Suroor the most for a trainer (11 times), the fact they team up for the 2021 renewal should be noted.
The duo are responsible for DUBAI MIRAGE, who is bidding to give his owners Godolphin a record-extending ninth win in the race.
The son of DUBAWI makes his third start of the year having finished second on both outings so far in handicaps over 1,600m and 1,800m.
He’s raced keenly on both those runs, which hasn’t helped his chances, but there is no-one better than Dettori at getting a horse to settle. However, this is his first start on dirt.
Several horses that took each other on in the 1,900m G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R2 face off again here.
SALUTE THE SOLDIER was the winner of the G2 contest that day and the Fawzi Nass-trained 6YO bids for a first G1 on Saturday.
The son of SEPOY had some solid form when trained by Clive Cox in the UK, including a Glorious Goodwood handicap victory over 1,400m, while he’s already won three times for his new trainer.
This is another step up but he seems to be improving with age and is a contender for this G1 prize.
THEGREATCOLLECTION, FIRNAS and QUIP all finished behind SALUTE THE SOLDIER in the aforementioned Al Maktoum Challenge R2.
In finishing second, THEGREATCOLLECTION made it back-to-back G2 runner-up finishes – an impressive sequence of form which has also seen him win the Listed Dubai Creek Mile over 1,600m.
He’s another who is progressing as the season goes on, but he’ll need to do that again to be in the shake-up here.
QUIP looks to have plenty of work to do to be competitive, as does FIRNAS, who looked out of his depth in G2 company last time.
SECRET AMBITION finished second to the THEGREATCOLLECTION in the Listed Dubai Creek Mile over 1,600m at the backend of 2020 and has kicked on from that in 2021.
He finished second in the G3 Jebel Ali Mile over 1,600m, before going one better in the G3 Firebreak Stakes over the same distance on his most recent outing.
The form of that win looks solid too, with the second, HYPOTEHTICAL, a subsequent winner of a handicap over 1,600m.
SECRET AMBITION needs to step forward again, but the manner of his most recent victory suggests that’s not out of the question.
Of the remainder, ROMAN ROSSO won a G1 over 2,000m when trained in Uruguay and hasn’t run too badly in his three starts for Satish Seemar, with the best being an 11-length fifth in this race last year, so he has the form to be involved.
NEW TRAILS won the Listed Curlin Stakes over 2,000m last time, but has come up short in better company in the past, while this is the strongest field TAILOR’S ROW has faced in his career.
SELECTIONS: 9. SECRET AMBITION, 8. SALUTE THE SOLDIER, 11. THEGREATCOLLECTION, 1. DUBAI MIRAGE & 6. ROMAN ROSSO
S1-7 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint
Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby looks to hold a very strong hand in the G3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint over 1,200m.
His ROYAL CRUSADE has always shown a lot of ability. He was runner-up in the G2 Champagne Stakes over 1,405m at Doncaster as a 2YO and he kicked off last season by finishing a creditable sixth in the G1 Commonwealth Cup over 1,200m at Royal Ascot.
His defeat of GLEN SHIEL in a 1,200m G3 at Deauville in July worked out really well as the runner-up went on to win the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes over 1,200m at Ascot.
ROYAL CRUSADE is proven at this G3 level and there’s every chance he will develop into a top sprinter so this looks a nice starting point for him on his Meydan debut.
Stablemate MAN OF PROMISE showed a fair bit of promise in Britain last year but he looked to have improved for a six-month break when bolting up from FINAL SONG and FLEETING PRINCE with EKHTIYAAR and YAALAIL further back in a Listed handicap over 1,200m at Meydan last month.
That was his first run since being gelded and he has the potential to be extremely progressive this season.
FINAL SONG has shown her best form in Dubai. She has done most of her racing over further than 1,200m but she ran a fine race when chasing home MAN OF PROMISE last month. This is a step up in grade but she is unexposed in sprints.
British raider ACKLAM EXPRESS has some smart form to his name. He made all the running to land a 1,000m Listed race at York last year and he ran a solid race on his first run since October when runner-up behind smart EQUILATERAL over 1,000m at Meydan last month.
He can get quite worked up so there has to be a doubt about him being as effective now he steps up to 1,200m and he is taking on older horses.
MEDAHIM came good in a Listed race over 1,400m at Abu Dhabi last month and he has his first run over 1,200m since his debut more than four years ago.
His only previous visit to Meydan, when well beaten in a 1,400m G2 in January, suggests he’s up against it in this grade.
MOTAFAAWIT was a surprise winner when beating MUTARAFFA in a Meydan handicap over 1,000m last month.
He had previously done most of his racing over further and seems to have found his vocation in sprints.
There was no fluke about last month’s victory and he could easily progress into a smart performer.
MUTARAFFA gives some substance to that form as he had earlier run EQUILATERAL close in a competitive Meydan handicap over 1,000m.
The step up to 1,200m should MUTARAFFA and he could easily be involved in the finish.
EKHTIYAAR was second in this race last year but was disappointing last time over the same course and distance.
SELECTIONS: 8. ROYAL CRUSADE, 4. MAN OF PROMISE, 6. MOTAFAAWIT, 7. MUTARAFFA & 13. FINAL SONG
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