Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

Expert Column for Dubai World Cup Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)

 

S1-2     Godolphin Mile

MIDNIGHT SANDS is going for his seventh straight Meydan victory in the Godolphin Mile over 1,600m.

Doug Watson’s dirt specialist simply loves this track and he made a winning return from a stint in America when successful in the G3 Burj Nahaar over the same course and distance three weeks ago. The way he moved through that contest and then put the race to bed suggests he’s well up to this slightly higher grade. He had two-and-a-quarter lengths to spare over CHIEFDOM at the line with TUZ and GOLDEN GOAL filling the places. BLOWN BY WIND finished further back in sixth.

CHIEFDOM went through the grades last year and his four wins included a Meydan handicap victory over 1,600m. He made the running when brushed aside by MIDNIGHT SANDS last time out and he should run his usual honest race but clearly has something to find.

TUZ stormed home when third in the same contest but he was never in the heat of the race. He’s still unexposed but he looks the type to need everything to drop right for him.

GOLDEN GOAL didn’t appear to have any excuses when fourth behind MIDNIGHT SANDS in the Burj Nahaar. He had won a 1,400m handicap at Meydan in January but he still needs to prove he has what it takes to win a G2 as competitive as this contest.

SECRET AMBITION didn’t look suited by 2,000m when fifth behind SALUTE THE SOLDIER in the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 three weeks ago. He missed the break that day and is much better when ridden more prominently over this 1,600m trip, as he showed when winning a G3 over this course and distance last month.

ROMAN ROSSO was much better placed through the race when third in the G1 2,000m Al Maktoum Challenge R3. He tends to run well without winning in this G2 grade.

DUBAI MIRAGE never landed a blow when seventh in that G1 behind SALUTE THE SOLDIER. He had taken well to Meydan’s turf track when runner-up in handicaps over 1,600m and 1,800m earlier in the year, but the dirt surface might not suit him as well.

AVANT GARDE has shown improved form in two starts in America this year. He needs another step forward if he is to play a hand in the finish but that is not impossible if he takes to the track.

URBAN ICON didn’t make much impression when tried in G2 races in Britain last year. His third behind the top-class SPACE BLUES over 1,351m at the Stc 1351 Turf Sprint was a decent effort and he could easily run well if he handles the switch to the dirt surface.

 

SELECTIONS: 8. MIDNIGHT SANDS, 12. SECRET AMBITION, 4. CHIEFDOM, 14. TUZ & 15. URBAN ICON

 

 

S1-3     Dubai Gold Cup

They say ‘there is safety in numbers’ and Godolphin, who have captured this G2 race three times in only eight runnings, have four representatives for stamina test over 3,200m.

Three of the quartet are trained by Saeed bin Suroor, but it might be Charlie Appleby who has the ace card in SECRET ADVISOR, who is 2-2 at Meydan and is weighted to gain his revenge on Andrew Balding’s SPANISH MISSION from Saudi last month.

Only a neck separated the pair when they filled the places behind GIFTS OF GOLD in the Red Sea Turf Handicap over 3,000m at King Abdulaziz, and, while both will improve on what was their comeback race after a winter break, SECRET ADVISOR’s course form could prove decisive.  Both SECRET ADVISOR’s wins on this track were over 2,810m, but stamina is his strong suit and this longer distance will play to his strengths. Significantly, too, when SECRET ADVISOR won the G3 Nad Al Sheba Trophy here last year, SPANISH MISSION, making his only appearance at Meydan, was a bitterly disappointing favourite, trailing in sixth.

Frankie Dettori rode VOLCANIC SKY for Saeed bin Suroor when they short-headed stable companion GLOBAL HEAT in this year’s Nad Al Sheba Trophy over 2,810m at Meydan.  But it is no coincidence that the Italian maestro now pledges his allegiance to the runner-up, who was checked at a crucial stage of the race and was arguably and unlucky loser. Furthermore, GLOBAL HEAT also looks the type who will relish trying this trip for the first time.

ROYAL MARINE, the remaining Godolphin runner, was not suited by a slow-run G1 Jebel Hatta over 1,800m here on Dubai Super Saturday. However, he has never raced beyond 2,000m and his pedigree suggests he will struggle with the trip.

The pace in the race will almost certainly come from SUBJECTIVIST, who is only four and arguably the improver. He produced a career-best performance when galloping his rivals into submission in the G1 3,100m Prix Royal-Oak at ParisLongchamp last October. The one worry is the ground was heavy in France, and SUBJECTIVIST has always looked best in testing conditions, which he won’t have here.

There are few bigger globetrotters around than veteran RED VERDON, who has raced in seven different countries on no fewer than 21 different racecourses. He now breaks more fresh ground, this being his Dubai debut. RED VERDON enjoyed his biggest success in a G2 at ParisLongchamp over 2,800m last year, but he struggles against the best and only beat one home in the G1 Hong Kong Vase over 2,400m at Sha Tin in 2018.  And it is hard to escape the fact that RED VERDON went into Saudi a fitter horse than either SPANISH MISSION or SECRET ADVISOR. So, well though he ran in fourth, he was fresh from a prep run at Lingfield and will be pushed to turn that form around.

MEKONG, beaten less than two lengths by SECRET ADVISOR in last year’s Listed Meydan Cup over 2,810m, will appreciate this trip more but lacks the ability to quicken and was well beaten in Saudi.

 

SELECTIONS: 7. SECRET ADVISOR, 3. GLOBAL HEAT, 11. SUBJECTIVIST, 8. SPANISH MISSION & 9. VOLCANIC SKY

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3:
Banker – 7. SECRET ADVISOR
Selections – 3. GLOBAL HEAT, 11. SUBJECTIVIST, 8. SPANISH MISSION & 9. VOLCANIC SKY
S1-4:
Banker – 3. KHAADEM
Selections – 8. SPACE BLUES, 2. EXTRAVAGANT KID, 1. EQUILATERAL & 11. FINAL SONG

 

 

S1-4     Al Quoz Sprint

Sprinters from the USA, Great Britain and Ireland take on the locals in a strong renewal of the 1,200m G1 Al Quoz Sprint, a race where six nations have been represented by the last 10 winners, including Hong Kong’s AMBER SKY in 2014.

Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby has saddled the last two winners of the race and holds another strong hand this year with SPACE BLUES, MAN OF PROMISE and ROYAL CRUSADE.

SPACE BLUES arrives here on the back of winning the Stc 1351 Turf Sprint over 1,351m in King Abdulaziz and is the mount of stable jockey William Buick, so he’s the obvious pick of the three in blue. However, all of SPACE BLUES’ best form has come over slightly further than 1,200m. He was unbeaten in the UK last season, but all of his three starts were over 1,400m, while his G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest win in France was 1,300m. He’s a top class horse who deserves his spot at the head of the betting, but he’s certainly not untouchable over the sharper trip.

Both of Appleby’s other runners, MAN OF PROMISE and ROYAL CRUSADE, can only be hoping for minor honours on all known form.

Godolphin are also represented by the Saeed bin Suroor-trained FINAL SONG. Having failed to fire when stepped up to 1,400m and 1,600m in the UK, the DARK ANGEL filly has been running well back at 1,200m and enters calculations if back to her best. Understandably, Frankie Dettori, who rode FINAL SONG in her win last time out, parts company to get the leg up on EQUILATERAL.

Though Charles Hills’ 6YO is yet to win at the top table in the UK, he seems to come to life during the winter in Dubai, with Meydan form figures reading 112. His win in the G2 1,000m Meydan Sprint last month looked fairly comfortable and he looks to be in a rich vein of form with the step up in distance the only concern.

Charles Hills also fields KHAADEM, who burst onto the scene with a decisive win in the 1,200m Stewards' Cup at Goodwood in 2019, but then failed to follow up in G1 company. He was given the full 2019/20 winter off before running twice last summer and finishing fourth in two G1 contests over 1,200m. Hills has kept him fresh for this – off the track since July – and a big run can be expected with conditions set to suit.

SPEAK IN COLOURS has place claims but doesn’t appeal for win purposes given he’s been soundly beaten in this sort of company before, while America’s best chance appears to be EXTRAVAGANT KID. He chased home GLASS SLIPPERS in the G1 1,200m Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and will be in the mix if reproducing that run.

 

SELECTIONS: 3. KHAADEM, 8. SPACE BLUES, 2. EXTRAVAGANT KID, 1. EQUILATERAL & 11. FINAL SONG

 

 

S1-5     UAE Derby

One of Dubai’s hottest young prospects, PANADOL, will attempt to take another step up the ladder when he tackles the UAE Derby.

He has looked a smart 3YO in winning a 1,600m maiden and a Listed prize AI Bastakiya over the same course same distance as this race when beating SPEIGHT’SPERCOMETE and EL PATRIOTA early this month. Both of those wins were gained when making the running and this exciting dirt performer is sure to give it another good go from the front.

MNASEK is one of two runners to get the fillies’ weight allowance. She was impressive when winning a 1,400m maiden despite missing the break in December, but she didn’t get away with a poor start a second time when taking on the more experienced SOFT WHISPER in the Listed 1,600m UAE 1000 Guineas in January. She looked very good when easily landing the UAE Oaks over the same distance as this race last month but she wouldn’t want to be slow out of the gates in this deeper race.

SOFT WHISPER is the other filly in the field. She was a little disappointing when only fifth in the Saudi Derby over 1,600m. Perhaps, the surface didn’t suit her as well as Meydan’s dirt track, where she has won twice, and she does look ready for the step up to this longer distance.

MOUHEEB is another runner likely to improve for his first try over 1,900m. He hit the line very strongly when landing the UAE 2000 Guineas over 1,600m last month and the form of that race looks solid.

Japanese raider PINK KAMEHAMEHA caused a bit of a shock when landing the Saudi Derby over 1,600m in King Abdulaziz last month when NEW TREASURE, REBEL’S ROMANCE and SOFT WHISPER finished third, fourth and fifth respectively. There’s no reason why he can’t run well but the dirt track for the Saudi Cup meeting is quite different from the more American-style surface at Meydan.

NEW TREASURE put in a solid performance in the Saudi Derby on his first run for John Gosden having joined the British champion from Irish trainer Jim S Bolger. He’s entitled to sharpen up for that run but his form looks a bit short of what is required.

REBEL’S ROMANCE had beaten MOUHEEB in the UAE 2000 Guineas Trial over 1,600m before heading for Saudi. That gives Charlie Appleby’s runner decent claims but runner-up MOUHEEB had missed the break and raced much further back than ideal before going down by just a head. REBEL’S ROMANCE will do well to confirm that form.

FRANCE GO DE INA could be best of the Japan-trained runners. He was impressive when landing a 1,800m maiden at Hanshin in November by four lengths. The following month he put up an even better performance when following up by five lengths over the same course and distance. He is a progressive colt and his prominent style of racing should be a help around this course.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. MOUHEEB, 8. PANADOL, 4. FRANCE GO DE INA, 14. SOFT WHISPER & 13. MNASEK

 

 

S1-6     Dubai Golden Shaheen

Blink and you’ll miss it. This 1,200m G1 dash on the dirt is not for the faint-hearted, and four times in the last five years the American raiders have swept up the prize.

Two of those winners were ridden by Joel Rosario, who looks for redemption here on Steve Asmussen’s YAUPON, the speedball having lost his unbeaten record in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint over 1,200m.Relatively inexperienced for such a test, yet still a warm favourite at Keeneland, YAUPON missed the kick at the start and then got squeezed out, so still has questions to answer at the top level.

WILDMAN JACK might have even more fans Stateside, having impressed Meydan regulars when winning the G3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint over 1,200m here last year.The majority of WILDMAN JACK’s races have been on the grass, but he showed he was equally effective on dirt when blitzing his field on the main track at Santa Anita in January over 1,200m. He could be more streetwise than the late-maturing YAUPON.

Japanese sprinting star MATERA SKY, who at 7YO is still an entire, is having his third crack at landing this prestigious prize. MATERA SKY, who has phenomenal early pace, finished fifth in 2018 and was runner-up in the race 12 months later. He seems fated not to win a big one, having been reeled in on the post by his compatriot COPANO KICKING in last month’s Riyadh Dirt Sprint over 1,200m in Saudi, a race in which MATERA SKY had also been mugged on the line in 2020.

COPANO KICKING should not be underestimated as, having been taken off his legs early in that race, he was still back in ninth place at the top of the stretch and then flew home to deny MATERA SKY in the final stride.

SWITZERLAND, who chased MATERA SKY hard from flagfall, was still in second at the 200m pole, only to fade into fourth place, while JUSTIN, the third Japanese runner, paid for a sloppy break, finishing only sixth.

MATERA SKY might have competition for that early lead from the flying local runner, GOOD EFFORT, who was himself beaten on the wire by Doug Watson’s CANVASSED in the 1,200m G3 Mahab Al Shimaal here on Dubai Super Saturday.

So fast was the early pace set by GOOD EFFORT that CANVASSED clocked a time only 0.08s outside the track record.
Watson, who is six-time champion UAE trainer and has enjoyed a brilliant Carnival season in Dubai, has two other strings to his bow, but stable jockey Patrick Dobbs prefers CANVASSED to AL TARIQ and PREMIER STAR.

AL TARIQ is another with speed to burn, having followed up his win over 1,000m at Jebel Ali with a G3 triumph at Meydan over 1,200m in the Al Shindagha Sprint.

PREMIER STAR won four of his seven races on dirt in the USA and made a pleasing debut in the UAE behind CANVASSED, being the only one who traded punches up front with GOOD EFFORT, which inevitably took its toll close home. However, it was PREMIER STAR’s first race since October, and he’ll now be sharper and represents value at double-figure odds.

 

SELECTIONS: 3. COPANO KICKING, 8. MATERA SKY, 2. CANVASSED, 12. WILDMAN JACK & 9. PREMIER STAR

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-6:
Banker – 3. COPANO KICKING
Selections – 8. MATERA SKY, 2. CANVASSED, 12. WILDMAN JACK & 9. PREMIER STAR
S1-7:
Banker – 9. LORD GLITTERS
Selections – 1. AL SUHAIL, 10. LORD NORTH, 8. LAND OF LEGENDS & 4. EQTIRAAN

 

 

S1-7     Dubai Turf

LORD NORTH has a history of going well fresh and trainer John Gosden is hoping that rings true in the G1 1,800m Dubai Turf . The 5YO enjoyed a fruitful season last year when successful in both the G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes and the G1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes over 2,038m and 1,993m respectively.. The Royal Ascot winner quickly rose through the rankings but disappointed on Champions Day when finishing last in the G1 1,993m Champion Stakes.

John Gosden has never won this race previously but has put his faith in star jockey Frankie Dettori, who was last successful in the 1997 renewal aboard TAMAYAZ for Godolphin. The Royal Blue outfit have won this race a record four times, last doing so in 2018 with BENBATL for trainer Saeed bin Suroor.

Saeed bin Suroor is the most successful Dubai Turf trainer with six winners and he saddles previous course winner LAND OF LEGENDS. The 5YO gelding was victorious at Meydan back in January, when winning the G2 Al Fahidi Fort over 1,400m. Having not been successful over 1,400m before, Godolphin's other runner, AL SUHAIL, is more fancied.

A Listed winner when successfully taking the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes over 1,600m, he will be ridden by William Buick once again for trainer Charlie Appleby.

LORD GLITTERS also lines up and is coming into the race in terrific form despite being an 8YO. He's enjoyed a successful campaign, winning two of his three starts all coming over the same course and distance. David O'Meara's stable star won the G2 1,800m Singspiel Stakes in January and most recently beat EQTIRAAN to land the G1 1,800m Jebel Hatta. The former Royal Ascot winner will be tough to beat, as shown by his win last time.

EQTIRAAN has place claims at best having been beaten convincingly in this company previously.

GLEN FORCE  finished lower than third for once in his 14 runs and is a handicap winner over 2,000m in the UK. It would take a career-best here, though.

 

SELECTIONS: 9. LORD GLITTERS, 1. AL SUHAIL, 10. LORD NORTH, 8. LAND OF LEGENDS & 4. EQTIRAAN

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 9. LORD GLITTERS, 1. AL SUHAIL & 10. LORD NORTH
S1-8: Multiple – 9. CHRONO GENESIS, 7. MISHRIFF & 8. MOGUL
S1-9: Multiple – 10. MYSTIC GUIDE, 7. JESUS’ TEAM & 8. MAGNY COURS

 

 

S1-8     Dubai Sheema Classic

MISHRIFF will look to continue the perfect start he made to the year when winning the Saudi Cup over 1,800m in King Abdulaziz back in February. The John Gosden-trained runner will be facing different conditions to those he met when landing the world’s most valuable race, though. In the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic over 2,410m, he tackles the Dubai turf for the first time and steps up in trip. The versatile 4YO has tasted success over 2,100m when winning the G1 Prix du Jockey Club in Chantilly, which came on good to soft ground, but has yet to tackle a trip further than that.

Opposing are a wealth of proven 2,400m horses, which notably includes one of the two Japanese-trained entries, CHRONO GENESIS. The three-time G1 winner has registered those successes between 2,000m and 2,500m, and the 5YO comes into the event fresh on the back of a narrow victory in the G1 Arima Kinen over 2,500m in Nakayama in December. Trainer Takashi Saito will have h primed for the task and will look to fight off the claims of the Irish-trained MOGUL.  

The Grand Prix de Paris over 2,400m winner has run twice since that G1 victory, clocking up some impressive air miles on the way as the Aidan O’Brien trained 4YO MOGUL has travelled to the USA and Hong Kong before his date in Dubai. Finishing fifth in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf over 2,400m back in November, two places behind the reopposing CHANNEL MAKER, he then travelled to Hong Kong to pick up G1 honours in the Hong Kong Vase again over 2,400m.

All signs point to a strong run from WALTON STREET. The 7YO has clocked two consecutive victories at Meydan this year coming in a Listed Handicap and the G2 Dubai City Of Gold, both over 2,410m.The gelding is now unbeaten in three and Charlie Appleby has won the last two renewals of this race. WALTON STREET will once again be partnered with William Buick who has won this contest a record four times.

Appleby also saddles STAR SAFARI who won the G3 2,000m Dubai Millennium Stakes last time. This is a big step up, but he’s progressing well and you should never write off a Godolphin runner.

Godolphin is the leading owner of the Dubai Sheema Classic collecting the top prize six times and they are represented with both of Appleby's charges as well as DUBAI FUTURE for Saeed bin Suroor. He was last seen in the Dubai City Of Gold over 2,410m behind WALTON STREET, but prior to that was winning a Listed Handicap in Meydan over 2,810m with Frankie Dettori on board. The Italian reunites with the gelding here and could offer some each-way value in the race. 

Of the remainder, CHANNEL MAKER could go well having finished second in the Neom Turf Cup over 2,100m in King Abdulaziz last time. He was third in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf behind TARNAWA and MAGICAL and that’s decent form.

 

SELECTIONS: 9. CHRONO GENESIS, 7. MISHRIFF, 8. MOGUL, 5. WALTON STREET & 1. CHANNEL MAKER

 

 

S1-9     Dubai World Cup

Godolphin have won the last two runnings of the G1 2,000m Dubai World Cup and they’ll be hopeful of bringing up the hat-trick with MYSTIC GUIDE.

The Michael Stidham-trained 4YO has been viewed as one of the leading contenders for this after bolting up in the G3 Razorback Handicap over 1,700m at Oaklawn Park in late February. That was his second Graded success after he won the G2 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga over 1,800m last year and he was only just touched off in the G1 2,000m Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes the time after, so clearly has the form to go very close.

In the same ownership, MAGNY COURS has claims as his trainer Andre Fabre tries to add another trophy to his glittering CV. The 6YO has been a model of consistency in his eight career starts having only finished out of the first two once. Last season he was victorious twice, both at Listed level, firstly at Chantilly in the Prix de Montretout over 1,600m and then in the Gala Stakes over 1,990m at Sandown. He warmed up for this with a nice performance over 1,900m on the polytrack at Chantilly and he should go well under William Buick.

GREAT SCOT, MILITARY LAW, SLEEPY EYES TODD and CHUWA WIZARD all took each other on in the 1,800m Saudi Cup last time.

GREAT SCOT finished third that day despite going off at 66/1 and that continued a fine run of form from the 5YO this so far this season. He won three races over 1,600m in a row , including a local G1 in King Abdulaziz, and given he was only seven lengths behind MAGNA GRECIA in the 2000 Guineas in 2019, this is a horse with plenty of ability.

MILITARY LAW was sixth in the aforementioned Saudi Cup and like GREAT SCOT, used to be trained in the UK. Formerly with John Gosden, the son of DUBAWI is now trained by Musabbeh Al Mheiri and he has excelled in his new surroundings. He was second in the Al Maktoum Challenge R3 over 2,000m last season, while he won the Al Maktoum Challenge R1 in January, so is another who could go close.

CHUWA WIZARD won the G1 Champions Cup over 1,800m at the end of last year, but will need to bounce back from a below par effort in King Abdulaziz last time.

SLEEPY EYES TODD ran a solid race when fifth in the Saudi Cup, though taking on this sort of company as well as the step up to 2,000m raise question marks.

As such it might be JESUS’ TEAM who gives the Godolphin pair most to think about. The 4YO has been well-campaigned over the 12 months running nine times in less than 10 months. And despite being on the go for such a long period of time, the colt has been very consistent finishing outside of the placings just once. He was third in the G1 1,900m Preakness Stakes, second in the G1 1,600m Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and most recently second in the G1 1,800m Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes – form which is probably the strongest on offer here.

SALUTE THE SOLDIER could run well having won his last two, while this is a big step up for HYPOTHETICAL who has been running in handicap company.

 

SELECTIONS: 10. MYSTIC GUIDE, 7. JESUS’ TEAM, 8. MAGNY COURS, 5. GREAT SCOT & 9.MILITARY LAW

 

 

 

Disclaimer:

The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.

HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.