Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Osaka Hai Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

 

S1-1 3yo 1 win

 

This race is over the same course and distance as the G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), first leg of Japanese Triple Tiara on 11th April. Outer turf is used for 1,600m races. There is long straight from the start to first turn, and wide draw is not a big disadvantage. And final straight is 473m long, and this is a very straight forward course.

My first choice is JUN BLUE SKY. The 3YO colt by DURAMENTE finished second in the Listed Hagi Stakes and third in G3 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes. Although he was beaten third in the allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama last time out, he stumbled at the start and could not run his race at all. He still managed to finish third, covering the final 600m for 34.9 seconds. I have a feeling that it is easy for this colt to graduate from this class. And 1,600m turf course at Hanshin is a suitable track for him.

RAISON DU SOURIRE is out of ROBE TISSAGE, winner of the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies over the same course and distance as this race. Although the colt by HEART’S CRY is still green and was not settled well in running last time out, he was still able to finish fourth. I believe this race’s tempo should be strong enough and RAISON DU SOURIRE should be able to run in good rhythm here. RAISON DU SOURIRE is my second choice.  

SPIRAL NOVA had run the races beyond 1,800m for six starts since his debut last summer and tried to run the race over 1,600m for the first time on 20th March at Nakayama. The colt by KIZUNA performed well there and finished second, beaten nose by the winner. He was settled well, tracking leaders, and finished strongly. I am sure 1,600m is a suitable trip for him. As he reproduces that form again on Sunday, I am sure he should finish within the first three.

DERMA YAKUSHI is a half-brother to HAKUSAN MOON, winner of three Graded Stakes and earner of over 370 million yen. While he has temperament issue, as many of ORFEVRE’s crop has, his physical looks very gorgeous and has quality to become a Graded Stakes performer. In fact, he won the maiden by four lengths last October, which is still unforgettable. DERMA YAKUSHI is my fourth choice. 

VIP LANVIN has been improving race by race and finished second in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 13th March. He can adapt with any pace, as he tracks leaders when the pace is not strong, while he waits at mid-division when the pace is strong. VIP LANVIN is my fifth choice.

 

SELECTIONS: 3. JUN BLUE SKY, 12. RAISON DU SOURIRE, 6. SPIRAL NOVA, 16. DERMA YAKUSHI & 9. VIP LANVIN

 

S1-2 4yo and up 1 win

 

This is the allowance race for one time winners over 2,000m on dirt. The starting gate is set on the turf course and runners have to run on turf for 80m. The straight course from the start to the first turn is 500m long and wide draw is not a big disadvantage at this course. The statistic shows front runners and horses who track leaders run better than closers at this course. There is uphill in the final 200m, which could be a factor.

My favourite is GREAT BASIN. The 5YO horse by HARBINGER has started 22 times, and 21 of them are the races on turf. Hence, this is the second start on dirt for him. I have been watching his morning track works and he is trained well at the dirt track at Ritto Training Centre. He is a big and powerful horse, and I believe he acts well at the dirt track at Hanshin. And his current condition is much better than he was before his previous race, and I believe this is a very good betting chance.

The most consistent runner in this field is EVERYONE BLACK, who finished within the first three in five starts from the last six starts. The 4YO colt by BLACK TIDE finished second in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 6th March, beaten nose by the winner. And the third finished was six lengths behind him. I believe he is a late bloomer like his full brother, KITASAN BLACK, and should be one of the leading contenders in this field. 

OMEGA DELUXE dwelt coming out of stalls in the allowance race for one time winners at Kokura on 7th March and was still able to finish fourth, beaten one and a half lengths by the winner. While he ran on turf in the last three starts, the 4YO gelding by DAIWA MAJOR won a maiden on dirt at Sapporo last August and I believe he can handle the dirt track at Hanshin well. OMEGA DELUXE is my third choice.   

HERSCHEL tracked leaders and finished fifth in the allowance for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 21st February. As I consider it was the first start since October for him, I think it was a good effort. The 5YO horse by HEART’S CRY has sharp late kick, and I believe it is better that he should be settled in mid-division or at rear of field in my opinion. He has been trained very well since the last start and HERSCHEL is my fourth choice. 

THOUSAND SMILE finished third in this class twice last year, including the allowance race at Hanshin on 19th July 2020. Both of the winner and second finisher of this race are now competitive in higher class and I believe she has ability to graduate this class. Though this is the first start for her since August 2020, she is trained well at Ritto Training Centre and I believe she is ready to run. THOUSAND SMILE is my fifth choice.  

 

SELECTIONS: 3. GREAT BASIN, 9. EVERYONE BLACK, 7. OMEGA DELUXE, 6. HERSCHEL & 2. THOUSAND SMILE

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:   
Banker – 3. GREAT BASIN
Selections – 9. EVERYONE BLACK, 7. OMEGA DELUXE, 6. HERSCHEL & 2. THOUSAND SMILE
S1-3:   
Banker – 11. PIXIE MAIDEN
Selections – 6. SOPRADOR, 1. SHONAN NADESHIKO, 10. PEISHA KNOWLEDGE & 8. POPOLARITA
 

 

S1-3 4yo and up 2 wins

 

This is the allowance race for two time winning 4YO and upper fillies and mares over 1,800m on dirt. The straight course from the start to the first turn is 303m long, and wide draw is not a big disadvantage at this course. The pace of the dirt races at this course tends to be strong. And the far turn is tight and the runners are requested to handle the sharp bend well.

My favourite is PIXIE MAIDEN. She is out of PIXIE PRINCESS, which finished third in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II  Cup, and her physical imitates her mother. She has proved she is competitive in this class, as she finished third in the allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo in December, and finished second in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 27th February. The allowance race on 27th February was a very slowly-run race, which was not suitable for the 5YO mare by EMPIRE MAKER. I think this is a good chance for her to graduate from this class, as I assess the field’s quality is not high as compared with the previous start.   

SOPRADOR finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Kokura on 7th March. I think it was a good effort, because it was the first time for the 4YO filly by MAJESTIC WARRIOR to compete against two time winners. She had run at Hanshin twice before and was well beaten on both occasions, however, she is now improving and I believe she is now able to handle the track at Hanshin well. SOPRADOR is my second choice.

SHONAN NADESHIKO finished ninth in the allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo on 20th March. It was a tough competition for the 4YO filly by ORFEVRE, because she ran against colts and horses, and she started from the widest draw. In fact, she finished third in the allowance race for two time winning fillies and mares over the same course and distance as this race on 27th February and she was beaten only nose by the second finisher, PIXIE MAIDEN, my favourite in this race. I believe she has the ability to finish the first three here.

PEISHA KNOWLEDGE was beaten seventh in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 27th February, when she was unlucky with the draw and the race came too soon after the previous start for this smallish filly.  She finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 21st November 2020, when she was beaten only nose. If she re-produces this form on Sunday, I am sure he is able to finish within the first four.

POPOLARITA graduated the class for one time winners last time out at Chukyo on 13th March, when she won an allowance race by four lengths, and it is an easy win. Though this is the first time for the 4YO filly by DUNKIRK to compete in this class, I think she should have the ability to finish in the first five here.

 

SELECTIONS: 11. PIXIE MAIDEN, 6. SOPRADOR, 1. SHONAN NADESHIKO, 10. PEISHA KNOWLEDGE & 8. POPOLARITA

 

S1-4 4yo and up 2 wins

 

This is the allowance race for two time winners over 1,400m on dirt. The starting gate is set on the turf course and the first 200m is on turf. The distance from the start to the first turn is 542m, and the pace of the dirt races at this course tends to be strong. And this course requires decent stamina and pure sprinters tend to struggle over 1,400m on dirt at Hanshin.

My favourite is MEISHO MASAHIME, who finished second in allowance race two time winners at Chukyo on 31st January. The 4YO filly by PYRO tracked the front runner from second position, while the pace was strong and was beaten only half a length by the winner. I assess this is a very good performance. In reversal, she was beaten 10th in Allowance for two time winners at Hanshin on 14th February. I suppose this race came too soon after the previous start and understand we should forget about this poor performance. On the other hand, we should remember that she won a maiden at the same course and same distance as this race.

It is another form we should remember that YAUGAU finished third in a Listed race at Tokyo in February last year. The winner of that race was CAFE PHAROAH, who is the winner of the G1 February Stakes at Tokyo on 21st February. After that, the 4YO colt by GOLD ALLURE started eight times and has not managed to win a race. However, it was not a bad performance when he finished fifth in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 14th March and I feel he is now getting out of a slump. YAUGAU is my second choice.

DAISHIN INARI finished within the first four in the last three starts at this class, using a sharp late kick. The 4YO colt by DAISHIN ORANGE was still able to finish fourth in the allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 14th March, after having a traffic problem on homestretch, and I believe he should have finished second or third if he had clear run. He has been trained well at Ritto Training Centre since then, and DAISHIN INARI is my third choice.

The second finisher in the allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 14th March is SUNRISE RAPPORT, who finished two and a quarter of length ahead of DAISHIN INARI, although he was slow to leave the starting gate. It was a good performance, as it was the first start for the 4YO colt by CONSTITUTION since September 2020. And 1,400m should be his best trip, as he has started the race over 1,400m twice, and finished first and second. SUNRISE RAPPORT is my fourth choice.

KEIAI WAIPU was beaten 11th in the allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo on 11th January, when his body weight was around 26lbs heavier than the previous start. He shaped up and working sharply in the morning now. The 4YO colt by DISTORTED HUMOR has won the maiden over the same course and distance as this race by five lengths, and I think he has a chance to finish within the first five here.     

 

SELECTIONS: 14. MEISHO MASAHIME, 9. YAUGAU, 7. DAISHIN INARI, 10. SUNRISE RAPPORT & 4. KEIAI WAIPU

 

S1-5 Akashi Tokubetsu

 

Akashi Tokubetsu is the stakes race for two time winners over 2,000m on turf at Hanshin.

Inner turf track is used for 2,000m races at Hanshin and the homestretch is only 356m long. It is the tendency at this course that the front runners and the horses who track leaders closely are running better than closers.

My first choice is LE LIEN, 4YO colt by KIZUNA, who has run well at this class in several occasions. For example, LE LIEN finished second in the allowance race for two-time winners at Nakayama on 4th October and WIN CARNELIAN, the winner of that race, has won the allowance race for three-time winners at Nakayama on 27th February. Although LE LIEN was beaten seventh in the allowance race for two-time winners, at Hanshin on 14th March, it was the first start for him since 25th October and he needed the run. LE LIEN has been trained well at Ritto Training Centre since then and he is now ready to run his race. And Hanshin is his favourite track as he has started at Hanshin three times and won two of them.

The horse to beat for LE LIEN in Akashi Tokubetsu is SAINTE ROSE, lightly raced 4YO filly by HEART’S CRY. She collected her second win at Chukyo on 6th February and it is a very impressive performance, as the jockey did not use his whip at all, while she covered the final 600m for 33.8 seconds, which is the fastest among the nine runners. I believe she should be competitive in this class.

AILES BRAVE won a maiden over 2,000m on turf at Hanshin last June and won the allowance race for one time winners again over the same course and distance last time out on 14th March. While the colt by ESPOIR CITY wanted to predominate the race in front in the past, he was settled well at the second position in the allowance race on 14th March and relaxed during the race. I feel he has now matured mentally and AILES BRAVE is my third choice. 

In contrast, VICTOR BAROWS, 4YO colt by LORD KANALOA, has still temperament issue. While he is brilliant on his day, VICTOR BAROWS tends to be idle on homestretch. Christophe Lemaire is booked for him in Akashi Tokubetsu and the French should try his best to keep fighting until the finish line. VICTOR BAROWS is my fourth choice.

HIRUNO DAKAR, who has finished second in this class three times, including the allowance race at Hanshin on 14th March, is my fifth choice.

 

SELECTIONS: 5. LE LIEN, 2. SAINTE ROSE, 3. AILES BRAVE, 9. VICTOR BAROWS & 7. HIRUNO DAKAR

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:   
Banker – 5. LE LIEN
Selections – 2. SAINTE ROSE, 3. AILES BRAVE, 9. VICTOR BAROWS & 7. HIRUNO DAKAR
S1-6:   
Banker – 12. FIRST FOLIO
Selections – 13. DERMA KATRINA, 7. KURINO ARIEL, 16. BUON VOYAGE & 1. MEISHO MIMOSA
 

 

S1-6 Yodoyabashi Stakes

 

Yodoyabashi Stakes for three time winners over 1,200m on turf at Hanshin looks wide open.

My favourite is FIRST FOLIO, beautifully-bred 4YO filly by KING KAMEHAMEHA.

She finished second in the allowance race for three time winners at Kyoto on 25th October and finished fourth in another allowance race for three time winners at Nakayama on 17th January. It is obvious that FIRST FOLIO is competitive in this class. Although she was beaten eighth in the allowance race for three time winners at Nakayama on 13th March, the track was too heavy for the smallish filly. She is trained well at Ritto Training Centre since then and is ready to run her race on Sunday. 

I think the horse to beat for FIRST FOLIO is DERMA KATRINA, American-bred 5YO mare by GHOSTZAPPER, who finished fifth in the allowance race for three time winners at Chukyo on 10th January. It was a slowly-run race, which is not ideal for DERMA KATRINA, who is a closer. Her late kick was still impressive and she covered the final 600m for 33.5 seconds, which was the quickest of 16 runners in Shinshun Stakes. The pace in Yodoyabashi Stakes should be stronger than that race.  

My third choice is KURINO ARIEL, who finished third in the allowance race for three time winners at Kokura on 28th February. I reckon this is a good performance, because it was the first time for the 6YO mare by DEEP IMPACT to compete against three time winners, and she started from 17th spot of 18 runners’ field. I believe this smallish mare has a good chance to finish within first three again here.

BUON VOYAGE graduated the class for two time winners at Kokura on 20th February, when the 4YO filly by LORD KANALOA won the allowance race over 1,200m. The winning time, 1 minute and 8 seconds, is 0.7 seconds quicker than the allowance race for three time winners on the following week, although the track of the following week was slightly wet. It looks BUON VOYAGE is now improving, and I believe she is competitive in this class now. BUON VOYAGE is my fourth choice.

MEISHO MIMOSA who has finished second in the allowance race for three time winners at Chukyo last September is my fifth choice. The 4YO filly by HEART’S CRY started four times at this class since then and has not finished better than fifth. However, her last race performance was not bad, as she finished within three quarter of length from the winner. As long as she re-produces that form, I believe she can finish within the first five again here.    

 

SELECTIONS: 12. FIRST FOLIO, 13. DERMA KATRINA, 7. KURINO ARIEL, 16. BUON VOYAGE & 1. MEISHO MIMOSA

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 12. FIRST FOLIO, 13. DERMA KATRINA & 7. KURINO ARIEL
S1-7: Multiple – 7. CONTRAIL, 12. GRAN ALEGRIA & 2. SALIOS
S1-8: Multiple – 9. SADAMU SCAT, 3. COCA BOMB QUEEN & 15. TOP OF MAJOR

 

S1-7 Osaka Hai

 

This year’s G1 Osaka Hai over 2,000m on 4th April could be the highlight of horse racing in first half of 2021 in Japan, because it features the showdown between CONTRAIL and GRAN ALEGRIA.

It may be surprising for many racing fans in Hong Kong to find the name of GRAN ALEGRIA in the field of this 2,000m event at Hanshin, because the 5YO mare by DEEP IMPACT is the winner of four G1s between 1,200m and 1,600m. GRAN ALEGRIA, who has very sharp turn of foot, is no doubt the best sprinter and miler in training in Japan.

Kazuo Fujisawa, who trains GRAN ALEGRIA for four seasons, has a different opinion. While Kazuo Fujisawa agrees she has a brilliant turn of foot, he had the impression from day one that GRAN ALEGRIA would become very good middle distance horse eventually. When GRAN ALEGRIA was 2YO and 3YO. She was immature physically and mentally, and could not control herself during races.

She is now 5YO and has grown and developed just as expected. Her body weight at the G1 Mile Championship in November is around 100lbs heavier than when she ran maiden at Tokyo in June 2018. And she is very relaxed during the race and runs like a real professional now. Kazuo Fujisawa is convinced that the time has come to try 2,000m for GRAN ALEGRIA.

In addition to the extra 400m, which is uncharted territory for GRAN ALEGRIA, there is one more matter of concern for GRAN ALEGRIA. It is the track at Hanshin. Inner track is used for 2,000m races at Hanshin, and the homestretch is only 356m long. Statistics show that horses who have long spurt tend to run better than horses who use a sharp late kick. In other words, front runners and horses who track leaders closely are doing better than closers at the inner track.

After due consideration of those factors, I decide that CONTRAIL is my first choice and GRAN ALEGRIA is my second choice.

CONTRAIL, unbeaten Japanese Triple Crown winner in 2020, was turned out at Daisen Hills, after he experienced his first defeat in the G1 Japan Cup in November, when he was runner-up to ALMOND EYE. The 4YO colt by DEEP IMPACT returned at Yoshito Yahagi’s barn at JRA’s Ritto Training Centre on 6th March, and has been trained beautifully since then. He was breezed at woodchip track at Ritto for 1,200m and clocked 78.6 seconds on 24th March. I believe CONTRAIL is ready to run his race.

My third choice is SALIOS, who was runner-up to CONTRAIL in G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) over 2,000m at Nakayama last April. It was disappointing for me that he was beaten fifth in G1 Mile Championship last time out. After having easy time at Shigaraki Branch of Northern Farm, SALIOS returned at Miho Training Centre on 27th February. He has been trained well since then and his condition looks better now.

Another attractive entry in Osaka Hai is LEI PAPALE, who has won all five starts since her debut, including the G3 Challenge Cup at Hanshin in December. Although the competition here is much more challenging than previous starts, she is a rising star, and I select her as my fourth choice.

CADENAS, who finished fourth in this race in 2020, is my fifth choice.     

 

SELECTIONS: 7. CONTRAIL, 12. GRAN ALEGRIA, 2. SALIOS, 8. LEI PAPALE & 10. CADENAS

 

S1-8 Naruto Stakes

 

The pace of the races over 1,400m on dirt at Hanshin tends to be strong, and the horses who have sharp late kick run well there.

The most consistent runner in the field is SADAMU SCAT, 4YO filly by HENNY HUGHES. Since she graduated from the class for two time winners last August, SADAMU SCAT ran four times in this class and finished second in three of them.

Although she was beaten third in the allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as Naruto Stakes on 6th March, it was the first start since 5th December, and it is obvious that she needed the race. And she has started at Hanshin four times, and finished within the first three on all four occasions. I select SADAMU SCAT as my favourite without any hesitation.

My second choice is COCA BOMB QUEEN, another consistent runner in the field, as she finished within the first four in the last three starts for three time winners at Nakayama. The 6YO mare by BLACK TIDE finished fifth in the allowance races for three time winners over the same course and distance as Naruto Stakes on 5th December and I believe 1,400m dirt course at Hanshin is suitable for COCA BOMB QUEEN, who has a sharp late kick.  

TOP OF MAJOR graduated the class for two time winners on 28th February, when the 5YO horse by DAIWA MAJOR won the allowance race over the same course and distance as Naruto Stakes by two and a half lengths. I am impressed with this performance, since it was the first start since November and first start on dirt for TOP OF MAJOR. He has been trained well at Ritto Training Centre since last start, and TOP OF MAJOR is my third choice. 

SUNRISE KNIGHT finished fifth in the allowance race for three time winners at Kokura on 24th January, and I think it was a good performance because it was the first start since October for the 6YO horse by KUROFUNE. And he has finished second in an allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as Naruto Stakes in March 2020, and I believe this is a suitable course for SUNRISE KNIGHT, who has sharp late kick.

KEIAI VIRIDIAN is another runner who has sharp late kick in the field. The 5YO gelding by CAME HOME won the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 21st February by three lengths, covering final 600m for 35.8 seconds. Although this is the first time for him to compete against three time winners, I believe he has chance to finish within the first five here.   

 

SELECTIONS: 9. SADAMU SCAT, 3. COCA BOMB QUEEN, 15. TOP OF MAJOR, 11. SUNRISE KNIGHT & 7. KEIAI VIRIDIAN

 

 

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